It's the Roster

[Jocko87]

53 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

Yes it WAS a bad roster in spring training and when the season started. I stated this fact many times on this forum. How can you look at the names on this roster and believe they should be performing better? They were who they have always been.  Kepler, Farmer, Miranda, Gallo!, Kiriloff, Larnach etc., etc., etc.  It's not getting any better folks!

My friend, you have 12 posts.  Forgive us if we missed one.

[Jocko87]

17 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Buxton's career OPS+ is 107, for 2023 he's at 101. That's probably one hot week...it's not that big of a difference. Buxton's not a great hitter...never has been over long periods of time…like a season. He’s not going to carry a team over a season offensively for that reason, and a bunch more related to his health. If the FO thought he would, the plan was flawed from the get-go.

That's not the proper comparison.  His career OPS+ includes some pretty ugly numbers at the beginning.  Last 4 years, 115, 125, 171 and 133.  At 98 now is basically falling off a cliff. 

[Muppet]

14 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

What 40 man roster was more talented in your Twins fandom? Be specific. 

I remember a season way back in ancient times when Nick Punto was the worst hitter on the team with an average of .210. And he made up for it with decent defense and what people referred to as "grit." Now, according to the Twins website, Correa leads the team with an average of .212. (Obviously, since most players are strict platoon hitters, nobody has enough ABs to be on the leaderboard). 

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

There may be other things contributing, but the issue is the roster (and the FO that built it).

Backups (or worse) playing every day (nearly):

Kepler, Galllo, Taylor

Backups getting regular time:

Solano, Castro

Superstars being less than a shadow of themselves (possibly not on the FO, but no idea what Rocco can do about it while they are not on the IL)::

CC, Buxton

Mistake, or just a massive slump?

Vazquez

Young "great hitter" not hitting:

AK

Given that the entire OF is made up of DFA candidates and backups, and CC and Buxton stink....I have no idea how many speeches Rocco can give....Perhaps he could lead better, he can certainly make better pinch hitting decisions. Perhaps a new hitting coach would help some....but really, it is the roster.

This is 90% on the FO, and if anyone needs to make changes and possibly be fired, it is them. 100%.

If it’s the Superstars not performing within a shadow of what’s expected, Kepler actually going backwards after the shift has been eliminated, how is it 90% on the front office???

I’ll grant you Gallo experiment is right where most fans thought it would be, with him driving people crazy with his lack of ability to make contact. He did provide value at the plate & at 1B while Kirilloff healed in April! Since then, a true disaster.

Guys/players need to perform!

The FO put the Staff together - they are performing. Don’t hear a lot of complaints there - maybe need a bit more Pen depth. FO made sure we were 7-8 guys deep for starters.

Baldelli isn’t losing games for Twins!

Miranda absolutely collapsing - Vazquez going from age 32 to looking like 42 at the plate with High school kid’s power - Gordon contributing nearly zero due to Slooow start and then injury - Polanco maybe played 50% of the games - Larnach essentially looking like a mediocre stick when given chances - Walner continues to strike out.

I don’t know how a manager overcomes these types of set-backs? Don’t know how a front office can anticipate these types of set backs’s? I’m happy with the depth the FO provided with Platoon guys that have been forced into everyday roles.

Farmer - Taylor - Solano - Castro have all contributed above their expectations. Nobody’s fault that guys are hurt.

Kirilloff & Lewis seem to be long-term solutions……..Julien is a maybe.

Guys aren’t driving in runs - FO can’t bat for players & neither can Rocco.

AGREED, it’s the roster but not what’s been assembled based on what should succeed on paper but rather guys that have played better historically …….not doing their job routinely!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Regarding batting order, there are many things that vary from game to game, not the least of which is the opposing starting pitcher. Is he right handed or left? Do any players have a history of success or failure against him? Which players are hot and which are not? Who needs a rest? Who needs to get some AB's? Does the stadium favor any particular players? Does the weather favor any particular players? And I'm sure there are more factors that I'm leaving out. A manager's goal is to get the most out of his players and in order to do that the batting order should change from game to game.

It’s a long season and I think you are really underrating the importance of just having a set lineup and batting position every day. It sets expectations for players and gives them one less thing to think about.

Best case scenario is a situation like Arraez in 2023, who bats leadoff and plays 2B every day in Miami. Gets his load management by coming out of games in the later innings when his bat is no longer needed. When his knees are barking, he gets a couple days off. Not too difficult.

This is not how the Twins handled Arraez in 2022. To the point where people actually said he doesn’t have a position. 

Well, his position is second base, and it always was. 

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, Muppet said:

I remember a season way back in ancient times when Nick Punto was the worst hitter on the team with an average of .210. And he made up for it with decent defense and what people referred to as "grit." Now, according to the Twins website, Correa leads the team with an average of .212. (Obviously, since most players are strict platoon hitters, nobody has enough ABs to be on the leaderboard). 

2010 was probably the best of that group and it also featured such luminaries Drew Butera, Ben Revere, Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert on the 40 man.

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

That's not the proper comparison.  His career OPS+ includes some pretty ugly numbers at the beginning.  Last 4 years, 115, 125, 171 and 133.  At 98 now is basically falling off a cliff. 

Snapshot seasons. He hasn’t been a good hitter for a season because he’s never played more than 46% of the games in 7 of 8 years. Therefore, if he gets hot 4 - 5 times in a 75 game season & he seems like a potential big contributor. He hasn’t been nor should he have been expected to be. If he was just his .245 BA, career mean - if Kepler was just his .250 BA, career mean - if CC was just his .279 BA, career mean the Twins would be in a much different spot on the league leading strike out list and we’d have scored many more runs.

More wins - no issues.

We could have absorbed Vazquez & Gallo & Gordon & Polanco.

The 3 of them in the center of our line-up & our expectations have let everyone involved down. Period.

Still have a path to the play-offs……..

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

It’s a long season and I think you are really underrating the importance of just having a set lineup and batting position every day. It sets expectations for players and gives them one less thing to think about.

Best case scenario is a situation like Arraez in 2023, who bats leadoff and plays 2B every day in Miami. Gets his load management by coming out of games in the later innings when his bat is no longer needed. When his knees are barking, he gets a couple days off. Not too difficult.

This is not how the Twins handled Arraez in 2022. To the point where people actually said he doesn’t have a position. 

Well, his position is second base, and it always was. 

2023 Luis Arraez in Miami has made 31 starts in the leadoff spot, and 34 in the 3 hole. He's also started 1 game as the 2 hole hitter, and 6 as the 4 hole hitter. 

2022 Luis Arraez in Minnesota made 91 starts in the leadoff spot, 18 in the 2 hole, 9 in the 3 hole, 1 in the 4, 6 in the 5th, 3 in the 6th, and 1 in the 9th.

2023 with the Marlins: 34 out of 72 starts in the 3 hole for 47.2% as the highest percentage of his starts in a lineup spot for him.

2022 with the Twins: 91 of 129 starts in the 1 hole for 70.5% as the highest percentage of his starts in a lineup spot for him.

Maybe he's not the "best case scenario" you want to go with when arguing how much lineup spot consistency matters.

[Jocko87]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Snapshot seasons. He hasn’t been a good hitter for a season because he’s never played more than 46% of the games in 7 of 8 years. Therefore, if he gets hot 4 - 5 times in a 75 game season & he seems like a potential big contributor. He hasn’t been nor should he have been expected to be. If he was just his .245 BA, career mean - if Kepler was just his .250 BA, career mean - if CC was just his .279 BA, career mean the Twins would be in a much different spot on the league leading strike out list and we’d have scored many more runs.

More wins - no issues.

We could have absorbed Vazquez & Gallo & Gordon & Polanco.

The 3 of them in the center of our line-up & our expectations have let everyone involved down. Period.

Still have a path to the play-offs……..

Last 4 years is a snapshot? OPS+ accounts for the factors you mentioned. I would also counter that those numbers include time playing injured when he shouldn't have been.

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

It’s a long season and I think you are really underrating the importance of just having a set lineup and batting position every day. It sets expectations for players and gives them one less thing to think about.

Best case scenario is a situation like Arraez in 2023, who bats leadoff and plays 2B every day in Miami. Gets his load management by coming out of games in the later innings when his bat is no longer needed. When his knees are barking, he gets a couple days off. Not too difficult.

This is not how the Twins handled Arraez in 2022. To the point where people actually said he doesn’t have a position. 

Well, his position is second base, and it always was. 

Polanco was our 2B in ‘22……theoretically still is in ‘23. ???

If you can’t hit (CC - Kepler - Gallo - Buxton) and your manager tries to get you some juice by moving you in the line-up & it bothers you, you have the mental strength of a young teen.

Arraez hits lead-off everyday because he’s leading baseball in OBP & he thrives on making contact. If he got dropped to batting 3rd he’d still hit for high average but he’d drive in runs. Our guys don’t hit well anywhere in the line-up & hence the search for something that may work.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

2023 Luis Arraez in Miami has made 31 starts in the leadoff spot, and 34 in the 3 hole. He's also started 1 game as the 2 hole hitter, and 6 as the 4 hole hitter. 

2022 Luis Arraez in Minnesota made 91 starts in the leadoff spot, 18 in the 2 hole, 9 in the 3 hole, 1 in the 4, 6 in the 5th, 3 in the 6th, and 1 in the 9th.

2023 with the Marlins: 34 out of 72 starts in the 3 hole for 47.2% as the highest percentage of his starts in a lineup spot for him.

2022 with the Twins: 91 of 129 starts in the 1 hole for 70.5% as the highest percentage of his starts in a lineup spot for him.

Maybe he's not the "best case scenario" you want to go with when arguing how much lineup spot consistency matters.

Yes I knew Arraez was batting third for a while. (awful, isn’t it)

Now finish what you started, and provide a list of the positions he has played in Miami. 

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Last 4 years is a snapshot? OPS+ accounts for the factors you mentioned. I would also counter that those numbers include time playing injured when he shouldn't have been.

Saying that he’s played stretches when he was hurt & maybe shouldn’t have been playing (I agree with) just proves that he shouldn’t be relied upon! My point is the more he plays the more exposed he is by the league as a mediocre hitter with Big flaws and flawed tendencies. I’m not a Buxton hater……thought it was great the FO made a philosophical change by having him DH. More games/more good results with crossed fingers. He just isn’t performing, and I struggle with why there would be high expectations given his history…….I would like to join everyone in wishing he’d just perform to the previous mean.

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Yes I knew Arraez was batting third for a while. (awful, isn’t it)

Now finish what you started, and provide a list of the positions he has played in Miami. 

Seriously? How does his playing 2B in Miami daily have anything to do with the Twins terrible performance on offense daily because the line-up/order shifts around?

[In My La Z boy]

3 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Yes I knew Arraez was batting third for a while. (awful, isn’t it)

Now finish what you started, and provide a list of the positions he has played in Miami. 

Arraez and Urshela would look real good on our roster at this point. Not sure what the FO was thinking in jettisoning our 2 best contact guys? Now we have no contact guys, which is essentially what Royce was saying the other day. Too bad we need him to be our contact guy, and too bad he had to figure it out for himself. Royce has power and should be a power guy, but someone's got to get on base here. We have a poorly constructed roster, and we seem to be poorly coached, and our players aren't making up for this by playing well. We should be selling at the trade deadline. We are miles away from competing with teams like the Braves. 

[mnfireman]

Just now, In My La Z boy said:

Arraez and Urshela would look real good on our roster at this point. Not sure what the FO was thinking in jettisoning our 2 best contact guys? Now we have no contact guys, which is essentially what Royce was saying the other day. Too bad we need him to be our contact guy, and too bad he had to figure it out for himself. Royce has power and should be a power guy, but someone's got to get on base here. We have a poorly constructed roster, and we seem to be poorly coached, and our players aren't making up for this by playing well. We should be selling at the trade deadline. We are miles away from competing with teams like the Braves. 

Urshela is out for the year with a broken pelvis.

[In My La Z boy]

2 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Urshela is out for the year with a broken pelvis.

Wouldn't have happened here. Rocco would have had him on a day off.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Yes I knew Arraez was batting third for a while. (awful, isn’t it)

Now finish what you started, and provide a list of the positions he has played in Miami. 

Oh come on. You claimed he was put in the leadoff spot and not touched and that the Twins were screwing up his performance by bouncing him around the lineup. You were wrong. Don't try to turn it into some indictment of the use of the 3 hole. You were wrong. He's been in different lineup spots significantly more with the Marlins. He is literally proof of the opposite of your lineup spot claim.

He played 1B/2B/DH primarily for the Twins last year. Mostly 1B, but a good chunk of 2B as well.He's played the same 3 spots for the Marlins this year. Almost all at 2B, though. So, sure, you're right, having to stand 45 feet further left of the hitter is so important it makes up for him having to bounce around the lineup far more often. Even though lineup spot consistency is vital.

[mnfireman]

6 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Wouldn't have happened here. Rocco would have had him on a day off.

Doubtful. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/gio-urshela-unlikely-to-return-in-2023.html

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Seriously? How does his playing 2B in Miami daily have anything to do with the Twins terrible performance on offense daily because the line-up/order shifts around?

i think the bigger point was that if players know their roles and what is expected of them, that’s a better environment for them to prepare and succeed over a long season. It was done this way for a long time. Everyday players did get the occasional getaway off day, but they were everyday players for a reason. What the Twins have been doing isn’t working. 

Two more quick thoughts: 1) if I recall, the Twins did actually pencil in the exact same lineup all three games of the opening series against KC, and 2) Polanco and Arraez would have been a perfectly acceptable SS-2B combo for me until Lewis and Lee were ready. Below average defensively but would more than make up for it on offense. 

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

i think the bigger point was that if players know their roles and what is expected of them, that’s a better environment for them to prepare and succeed over a long season. It was done this way for a long time. Everyday players did get the occasional getaway off day, but they were everyday players for a reason. What the Twins have been doing isn’t working. 

Two more quick thoughts: 1) if I recall, the Twins did actually pencil in the exact same lineup all three games of the opening series against KC, and 2) Polanco and Arraez would have been a perfectly acceptable SS-2B combo for me until Lewis and Lee were ready. Below average defensively but would more than make up for it on offense. 

 

I'm curious, but isn't their role to get a hit, no matter the spot in the lineup? I can't imagine it matters one iota to the vast majority of veterans what their batting order number is, other than pride. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

There may be other things contributing, but the issue is the roster (and the FO that built it).

Backups (or worse) playing every day (nearly):

Kepler, Galllo, Taylor

Backups getting regular time:

Solano, Castro

Superstars being less than a shadow of themselves (possibly not on the FO, but no idea what Rocco can do about it while they are not on the IL)::

CC, Buxton

Mistake, or just a massive slump?

Vazquez

Young "great hitter" not hitting:

AK

Given that the entire OF is made up of DFA candidates and backups, and CC and Buxton stink....I have no idea how many speeches Rocco can give....Perhaps he could lead better, he can certainly make better pinch hitting decisions. Perhaps a new hitting coach would help some....but really, it is the roster.

This is 90% on the FO, and if anyone needs to make changes and possibly be fired, it is them. 100%.

Agreed to a point.

But...

Vazquez:  .259 for his career - .227 thus far

Jeffers: .220 for his career - .260 thus far

Gallo: .199 for his career - .189 thus far

Kirilloff: .255 for his career - .265 thus far

Solano: .277 for his career - .271 thus far

Farmer: .264 for his career - .253 thus far

Correa: .274 for his career - .212 thus far

Castro: .247 for his career - .256 thus far

MAT: .239 for his career - .212 thus far

Kepler: .230 for his career - .198 thus far

Buxton: .240 for his career - .203 thus far

Julien and Lewis excluded; the former's a rookie and the latter doesn't have enough to data to draw upon. Of the 11 batters, 8 of them are below their career averages - and of the 8, the average drop from the career average is 27 points. Of this group, Vazquez and Solano are the only ones I would term 'old'. The others, at their respective ages, shouldn't be falling off a cliff.

When a group underachieves as badly as this line-up has, someone gets fired - usually the hitting coach or manager. It's hard right now to pin this all on Falvey and Levine when nearly every hitter is failing to live up to reasonable expectations, i.e., their career averages. They didn't all turn into pumpkins over night.

[BiggestRoccoFan]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

There may be other things contributing, but the issue is the roster (and the FO that built it).

Backups (or worse) playing every day (nearly):

Kepler, Galllo, Taylor

Backups getting regular time:

Solano, Castro

Superstars being less than a shadow of themselves (possibly not on the FO, but no idea what Rocco can do about it while they are not on the IL)::

CC, Buxton

Mistake, or just a massive slump?

Vazquez

Young "great hitter" not hitting:

AK

Given that the entire OF is made up of DFA candidates and backups, and CC and Buxton stink....I have no idea how many speeches Rocco can give....Perhaps he could lead better, he can certainly make better pinch hitting decisions. Perhaps a new hitting coach would help some....but really, it is the roster.

This is 90% on the FO, and if anyone needs to make changes and possibly be fired, it is them. 100%.

Rocco could lead better?

You either have the ability to lead or you don't. He clearly does not have the ability to lead!

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Agreed to a point.

But...

Vazquez:  .259 for his career - .227 thus far

Jeffers: .220 for his career - .260 thus far

Gallo: .199 for his career - .189 thus far

Kirilloff: .255 for his career - .265 thus far

Solano: .277 for his career - .271 thus far

Farmer: .264 for his career - .253 thus far

Correa: .274 for his career - .212 thus far

Castro: .247 for his career - .256 thus far

MAT: .239 for his career - .212 thus far

Kepler: .230 for his career - .198 thus far

Buxton: .240 for his career - .203 thus far

Julien and Lewis excluded; the former's a rookie and the latter doesn't have enough to data to draw upon. Of the 11 batters, 8 of them are below their career averages - and of the 8, the average drop from the career average is 27 points. Of this group, Vazquez and Solano are the only ones I would term 'old'. The others, at their respective ages, shouldn't be falling off a cliff.

When a group underachieves as badly as this line-up has, someone gets fired - usually the hitting coach or manager. It's hard right now to pin this all on Falvey and Levine when nearly every hitter is failing to live up to reasonable expectations, i.e., their career averages. They didn't all turn into pumpkins over night.

We really going to use BA as the sole measure? Some of those are rounding errors.....

You can think it is the hitting coach, but I would argue having three DFA / backup players as starters in the OF, before this year that's what they were, is the issue, not the batting coach. Also, it is clear Buxton and CC are hurt, so I'm sure that's a much bigger issue for them than the hitting coach. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, BiggestRoccoFan said:

Rocco could lead better?

You either have the ability to lead or you don't. He clearly does not have the ability to lead!

Based on what? Outcomes? 

Also, yes or no, the OF hitters on this roster are legit starters? 

[JD-TWINS]

7 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

i think the bigger point was that if players know their roles and what is expected of them, that’s a better environment for them to prepare and succeed. It was done this way for a long time. Everyday players did get the occasional getaway off day, but they were everyday players for a reason. What the Twins have been doing isn’t working. 

Two more quick thoughts: 1) if I recall, the Twins did actually pencil in the exact same lineup all three games of the opening series against KC, and 2) Polanco and Arraez would have been a perfectly acceptable SS-2B combo for me until Lewis and Lee were ready. Below average defensively but would more than make up for it on offense. 

 

I love Luis - was pissed they ever considered trading him. Learned to live with it - hitting a ball well is really hard.

He played 1B - 3B - 2B - DH in ‘22 & lead the league in batting. The lack of continuity for a player’s mental stability or confidence or whatever positive one wants to spin, is an excuse. He played different positions all the time not based on wild whims of the manager but based on who was healthy enough to pencil into the line-up.  Luis still hit .316 & slumped big time for 6 weeks.

3 RH pitchers in a row with KC - no Polanco nor Kirilloff as options, so NO options for first few weeks.

[In My La Z boy]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm curious, but isn't their role to get a hit, no matter the spot in the lineup? I can't imagine it matters one iota to the vast majority of veterans what their batting order number is, other than pride. 

The tides roll out, the tides roll in. The sun comes up, and the sun goes down. Routine matters. Familiarity matters. Consistency matters. We are by nature creatures of habit. It is human nature. Baseball players are typically routine and rhythm orientated, as most people are. Yes, their role is to hit no matter, but a coach can facilitate this process by implementing routines and rhythms and continuity. Like a kid or a dog acts and performs better when knowing exactly what to expect and what time to expect it. A coaches job (and front office) is to lay the groundwork and set the conditions for the players to have the best opportunity for success. 

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

Rocco could lead better?

You either have the ability to lead or you don't. He clearly does not have the ability to lead!

Clearly.  Really?  Have you been in the clubhouse.  Have you observed his interaction with players?  None of us have nearly enough information to offer an opinion and that's assuming expertise in leadership.    

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

The tides roll out, the tides roll in. The sun comes up, and the sun goes down. Routine matters. Familiarity matters. Consistency matters. We are by nature creatures of habit. It is human nature. Baseball players are typically routine and rhythm orientated, as most people are. Yes, their role is to hit no matter, but a coach can facilitate this process by implementing routines and rhythms and continuity. Like a kid or a dog acts and performs better when knowing exactly what to expect and what time to expect it. A coaches job (and front office) is to lay the groundwork and set the conditions for the players to have the best opportunity for success. 

you believe that CC would hit better if he was placed in the 3 hole and left there? What routine really changes other than the first time thru the order? 

[In My La Z boy]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

you believe that CC would hit better if he was placed in the 3 hole and left there? What routine really changes other than the first time thru the order? 

No. Perhaps I was making a larger point. Ideally you have a squad like the Braves who have played Acuna in every game, and had nearly the same line up all year. If Acuna was on our team he would have been rested at least once a week, and probably hit in several different places in the lineup. I do understand we aren't the Braves. Hence the discussion.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

No. Perhaps I was making a larger point. Ideally you have a squad like the Braves who have played Acuna in every game, and had nearly the same line up all year. If Acuna was on our team he would have been rested at least once a week, and probably hit in several different places in the lineup. I do understand we aren't the Braves. Hence the discussion.

Ah, got it. Yes, it would be great if they had good players (which was the point of my post, they don't, imo).

And, I don't think for 1 minute Acuna would rest once a week.