Nygaard Mock Draft v. 1.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Mock Draft season is upon us. We're still a solid seven weeks from having any clarity, but it's always fun to start to speculate. Last year's draft got crazy early. Even crazier than normal when you consider two pitchers went in the Top 7 and barely anyone saw a pitcher going in the Top 15. Other players fell to teams who were elated to take someone they never thought they'd have a chance to select.  

Mock Drafts and speculation are a lot of fun. When the Twins 'won' the first Draft Lottery and got the fifth overall draft pick in the 2023 draft, it allowed Twins fans to get excited. Many believe that it is a good year to have a Top 5 pick. A year after getting Brooks Lee with the eighth overall pick, the Twins will have a chance to get another premium prospect. 

Here is my first mock draft of the 2023 season. More to come, and much, much more detail on the potential top picks. Please share your thoughts on this mock draft. How would you feel about the pick we made for the Twins at #5? 

1.) Pirates – Dylan Crews, OF, LSU - Arguably the best hitting prospect since Bryce Harper, Crews should be a no-doubt pick for Pittsburgh.

2.) Nationals – Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU - This is the highest Washington has drafted since having back-to-back first overall picks in 2009 and 2010. Skenes is the best pitcher available by a relatively wind margin and the Nationals would be wise to add such a highly regarded prospect.

3.) Tigers – Walker Jenkins, OF, North Carolina prep -  Remarkably, this is going to be the fifth year out of the last six that the Tigers have had a top five pick. And they have very little to show for it. They’ve missed on both high school and college pitchers. They’ve had a little more success recently with prep hitters and Jenkins is the highest-ceiling hitter available. 

4.) Rangers – Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida - The Rangers have went the collegiate route the last four years and the SEC in three of those four years. Langford fits the bill and is more than deserving of being picked here… or higher. 

5.) Twins – Max Clark, OF, Indiana prep - There are certainly reasons and rumblings why the Twins would go a different direction here. But, at this point, it’s more of a “just make the easy choice” and that’s whichever of these top five names are available. The Twins have definitely been a college-bat lean recently. Langford would likely be preferred. Is this too early for Teel? Gut says yes (in late May anyway). 

6.) A’s – Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt - The A’s are a mess and a team I’ve never been able to peg down - which is ok because they’ve struggled to hit on first-round picks. Bradfield has game-changing speed and the A’s have the third most stolen-base attempts in the league. Bradfield can help with that.

7.) Reds – Kyle Teel, C, Virginia - With the exception of Nick Lodolo in 2019, the Reds have gone hitter each year dating back to Hunter Greene in 2017. Either Chase Dollander or Rhett Lowder would make sense here too.

8.) Royals – Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest - It’s hard to really see a trend with the Royals. They’ve taken from each of the four demographics in the first round the last four years. Lowder has done well for himself and is the second college pitcher drafted here.

9.) Rockies – Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee - I’ve long believed the Rockies best chances to add difference-making pitchers come in the draft. Dollander hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype, but he’s still a Top 10 pick. 

10.) Marlins – Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi - The Jacob Berry selection last year was a head-scratcher to me. This would be a chance to get it right.

11.) Angels – Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon - A small-school hitter is one of the few things the Angels have done well in identifying in the draft lately. 

12.) Diamondbacks – Arjun Nimmala, SS, Florida prep - Consider me someone who thinks Nimmala breaks into the Top 10. Arizona has gone the prep route in four of the last five years.

13.) Cubs – Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford - Maybe he doesn’t stick at shortstop, but the bat plays at second base. There’s a mix of players here would could go anywhere in the next 20 picks so it’s going to be a lot of mixing team preference with price tags.

14.) Red Sox – Colin Houck, SS, Georgia prep - Houck seems to be doing well for himself as the draft gets closer. And the Red Sox have gone this route recently. 

15.) White Sox – Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida - It seems like it’s always college pitchers for the White Sox.

16.) Giants – Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Virginia prep - Maybe too high for Eldridge, but they may have reached for Reggie Crawford last year too. 

17.) Orioles – Noble Meyer, RHP, Oregon prep - The Orioles are in a good position to add to their depth of prospects and here the top-rated prep pitcher falls into their lap.

18.) Brewers – Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland - The profile of a hitter who probably can’t stick at shortstop and his last name is Shaw. Sure seems to fit with the Brewers. 

At this point in time it becomes a “here are some other guys I think go in the first round.”

19.) Rays – Thomas White, LHP, Massachusetts prep 

20.) Blue Jays – Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU

21.) Cardinals – Kevin McGonigle, SS, Pennsylvania prep

22.) Mariners – Blake Mitchell, C, Texas prep

23.) Guardians – Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech

24.) Braves – Brock Wilken, 2B, Wake Forest

25.) Padres – Aidan Miller, 3B, Florida prep

26.) Yankees – George Lombard Jr., SS, Florida prep

27.) Phillies – Colt Emerson, SS, Ohio prep

28.) Astros – Chase Davis, OF, Arizona

29.) Mariners – Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic

30.) Mariners – Colton Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State

What do you think? Any names missing? Would you want the Twins to take a prep outfielder if Max Clark is available with that pick? Discuss in the COMMENTS below. 

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This would be a fantastic start for the Twins. If it falls this way, what would you expect for 34 and 49 if the draft falls this way

[Cory Engelhardt]

21 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This would be a fantastic start for the Twins. If it falls this way, what would you expect for 34 and 49 if the draft falls this way

I would go Cade Kuehler at 34 and then either Tanner Witt or the best available hitter at #49.

[jishfish]

Really hopeful the Twins follow your "just make the easy choice" comment. I think the only non-consensus top 5 player I would be alright with them taking would be Kyle Teel. The Keith Law rumors of them being in on Jacob Wilson/Jacob Gonzalez were terrifying this week. Definitely not the type of players I would be looking to take in the top 5!

As a side note, if Langford gets past the Tigers at 3, I could see the Twins flexing their bonus pool to get him past the Rangers. He seems like a player the Twins would very much covet! He's probably my Best Case Scenario choice at this point.

Appreciate your work!

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This would be a fantastic start for the Twins. If it falls this way, what would you expect for 34 and 49 if the draft falls this way

After Clark at #5 I'm doubling down on upside with surefire shortstop out of HS Adrian Santana at #34 and then their prototypical "positionless but he can really hit" college bat with LuJames "Gino" Groover III at #49.

Then in rounds 3-10 probably about 6 college arms a couple of whom come out next year having added 2-4 MPH at velocity camp.

Maybe not the most likely scenario but I think still fairly on brand for this front office.  Probably of the guys left Yohandy Morales might be the most likely at #34 who fits into the college hitter type that they like.

[Crackedfungo]

3 hours ago, jishfish said:

Really hopeful the Twins follow your "just make the easy choice" comment. I think the only non-consensus top 5 player I would be alright with them taking would be Kyle Teel. The Keith Law rumors of them being in on Jacob Wilson/Jacob Gonzalez were terrifying this week. Definitely not the type of players I would be looking to take in the top 5!

As a side note, if Langford gets past the Tigers at 3, I could see the Twins flexing their bonus pool to get him past the Rangers. He seems like a player the Twins would very much covet! He's probably my Best Case Scenario choice at this point.

Appreciate your work!

BPA.  No to Wilson and Gonzalez, and He77 NO to Teel.  You don't force a pick of need with a talent pool of 5 deep studs.  IF they go with any of Wilson, Gonzalez, or Teel, I would pink slip Falvine that afternoon.

[SGL]

For me either Langford, Clark or Jenkins at 5 would be fine.  Lombard Jr at 34 and Kuehler at 49.

[UK Twin]

Twins struck gold when they drew the number 5 pick in the draft lottery. There are 5 genuine candidates who could go number 1 in any other year and the Twins, barring a shock selection, are going to get one of them, probably Clark or Langford. Would love Skenes but he likely won't be available at 5 and Crews definitely won't so no point thinking about him.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

25 minutes ago, Crackedfungo said:

BPA.  No to Wilson and Gonzalez, and He77 NO to Teel.  You don't force a pick of need with a talent pool of 5 deep studs.  IF they go with any of Wilson, Gonzalez, or Teel, I would pink slip Falvine that afternoon.

Last year the Rangers reached for Kumar Rocker and with their savings were able to push arguably the top prep pitcher to them for their next pick in the fourth round (at #109). They had clearly negotiated that tactic in advance with Scott Boras.

So they're a wildcard at #4 for sure.

But the Twins have done good business with Boras lately, too, and could certainly have a conversation with him. I don't know if he reps any of Wilson/Gonzalez/Teel or the Top 5. (I'm sure he does, but not sure who.) He could certainly play that game.

For example, the Twins could push up a college bat (Tommy Troy, Matt Shaw, etc) and then could conceivably push down two prep arms if they wanted to. 

Would you trade 5, 34, 49 and shave money off a few later picks to draft 17, 18 and 19? I think there's at least an argument that could be made there.

I *know* that in 2009 - after drafting Parmelee, Revere and Hicks in the previous three drafts - the Twins didn't want to get burned by taking another high school outfielder. Sure, it was really early in those players careers (and they all turned out to be major leaguers) but there was some skepticism about them. They went the safe route (Kyle Gibson). An available high school outfielder: Mike Trout. (Don't take this as a "The Twins were deciding between the two" because that's not what I'm trying to say.) Sometimes you're just hesitant to go back to the tree that didn't bear fruit.

Keoni Cavaco still stings and guys they were convinced were more true bats and less to be dreaming on (Lee, Kirilloff, Larnach) have all seemed to work out ok.

I have no idea how the Twins will eventually stack their board, but Crews and Langford at the very top make sense. I don't know where Skenes will fit in and I truly believe they prefer Jenkins to Clark (and by a decent margin). And, honestly, whoever they have at 6 might be closer to Clark than Clark is to whoever they have at 4. And if the money makes sense, I get it.

I just really hope Langford or Jenkins fall to 5. 

[tony&rodney]

Max Clark would be a terrific pick for the Twins. He has the most upside of anyone since the pick of Byron Buxton.

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, jishfish said:

As a side note, if Langford gets past the Tigers at 3, I could see the Twins flexing their bonus pool to get him past the Rangers. He seems like a player the Twins would very much covet! He's probably my Best Case Scenario choice at this point.

I think mock drafts at this point are fun but without knowing who reps each top 5 player its really hard to figure how it plays out.  I would pay a bunch of extra slot money to get Langford over one of the high school lefties and even take a pitcher ahead of them.  I have to imagine there are plenty of agent discussions going on right now but without any signings we don't know the Boras effects etc.

Signability issues are just around the corner.

[Doctor Wu]

Don't know a thing about it him, but just for the name, I'd love to have a pitcher named Noble Meyer!

[jishfish]

14 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I have no idea how the Twins will eventually stack their board, but Crews and Langford at the very top make sense. I don't know where Skenes will fit in and I truly believe they prefer Jenkins to Clark (and by a decent margin). And, honestly, whoever they have at 6 might be closer to Clark than Clark is to whoever they have at 4.

I just really hope Langford or Jenkins fall to 5. 

Clark is the one I'm really struggling with, particularly as a fit for the Twins and how they would view him.

Listening to a few different podcasts, it sounds like Walker Jenkins is in the Royce Lewis tier of 80-grade people. Joe Doyle in particular absolutely raves about the kid. And that isn't to say Max isn't a great kid too, but I see him and Jenkins as almost polar opposites in how they go about their business.

So from both a skillset and personality standpoint, I think the Twins would value Jenkins over Clark. But at the same time, I do love some of the Bryce Harper-like fire that Clark seems to bring, and I feel like it's something the Twins haven't had in a long time. And maybe that's what they need after years of quiet, understated guys like Mauer, Morneau, Buxton, and even Kirilloff?

Tough to say and probably nit-picking, but when you're picking in the top 5 I can definitely see little things like that making a big difference. Fingers crossed someone pops Clark early and Langford or Jenkins is there at 5!

[Otaknam]

According to some learned sources, like Baseball America, there are five players at the top of this draft. So the Twins should get an potential impact player, hopefully a college player who can move quickly. Skenes seems to be the only pitcher who rates real high, so I expect the Twins will continue to select position players early on the draft because they are easier to project. After that load up on high velocity pitchers who have upside and hope you strike gold.