Prospect Retrospective: Brent Headrick

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have accumulated depth in the high minors, and fans will see multiple pitching prospects throughout the season. Brent Headrick looks to become the first pitching prospect to debut in 2023.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins drafted Brent Headrick in the ninth round of the 2019 MLB Draft from Illinois State University. He spent three years as a starter in college with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. In 205 2/3 innings, he posted a 193-to-70 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Even without overall outstanding numbers, Twins scouts felt that he had the potential to be even better after getting into the organization and working with the minor league coaches. 

Headrick’s pro debut came in limited action with the Elizabethton Twins. He made three appearances (two starts) while not allowing an earned run over 3 2/3 innings. There were some struggles with control, as he had five walks compared to two strikeouts. He was coming off a collegiate season where he pitched nearly 100 innings, so there might have been some fatigue in the rookie leagues. 

The Twins sent Headrick to Fort Myers after the non-existent 2020 minor league season. He was over a year older than the average age of the competition with the Mighty Mussels. In 63 innings, he posted a 3.71 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an 88-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His strikeout rate had jumped from 8.4 K/9 in college to 12.6 K/9, a sign of even better numbers during the 2022 season. 

Headrick began last season at High-A and dominated for the Kernels. In 15 starts (65 1/3 innings), he had a 2.34 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and a 77-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins promoted him to Double-A, where he was younger than the average age of the competition for the first time in his career. He allowed 23 earned runs in 43 innings but increased his strikeout rate from 10.6 K/9 in High-A to 12.3 K/9. The Twins were impressed enough with his performance to add him to the 40-man roster this past offseason. 

Since joining the Twins organization, Headrick has increased his fastball velocity from 88 mph in college to the low-90s during the 2022 season. His slider resulted in a 48 percent whiff rate after being promoted to Double-A last season. Headrick continues to work on his changeup, and he can miss bats with the pitch when he throws it consistently for strikes. At Triple-A, he pitched nine innings and allowed six earned runs on 12 hits with 12 strikeouts and two walks. 

It remains to be seen how the Twins will utilize Headrick in 2023. He’s been a starter throughout his professional career, but he seems more likely to be utilized out of the bullpen. Cole Sands is no longer on the roster, so Headrick can serve as the long man. Headrick’s ceiling might be limited at the big-league level, but his fastball and slider combination makes him an intriguing bullpen option. 

What do you think Headrick’s ceiling is at the big leagues? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Brandon]

Headrick ceiling is to be a left handed Bob Tewksbury.  

[mikelink45]

Sands had his chance - Next man up!

[old nurse]

For major league debut starting pitching I do believe Headrick is the only starter to not have pitched in the majors. If someone bypasses him for a debut as a starter it would be someone had a meteoric rise or somebody is now a relief pitcher or injured. 

[2wins87]

Pretty sure this is the long relief move replacing Cole Sands. Ober is still the guy that would get a more long term position in the rotation.  It seems evident now there are half a dozen guys in AAA that are going to be cycled through stints in the majors when needed.  Not a terrible way to get some experience for all of them.

Headrick was touching 95 in his first spring training start, but his velocity dipped throughout the spring.  Presumably he came in pretty fresh, got a bit tired by the higher workload and has had to build back up.

After averaging just 89.8 mph in his first rough AAA appearance, he averaged 91.6 in his second appearance (the start mentioned in the tweet), so he seems to be getting back to where he sat last year.

Ideally he's a guy who can sit 92-93 and run it up to 95, which is solid from the left side.  His curveball and slider both miss bats, including against righties when he locates a good back-foot one.

[Dman]

I like him as a reliever would need to show me more to be a starter.  He has been a bit up and down this year with hittable outings and then unhittable ones. Spring makes it tough to evaluate much though.  Hoping he can turn into a 5th starter type but will have to wait and see. At any rate I think he is a good pick for the Sands roll and being a lefty should give the other team a different look.  If he makes it as 9th round pick that is a good outcome.

[chpettit19]

22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Sands had his chance - Next man up!

I don't think this is a "Sands had his chance" situation. The Twins wanted to push Maeda's start back. Sands had just thrown multiple innings and wasn't going to get that spot start so they needed to call someone else up. Sands was the obvious choice to be sent down. After he was sent down for Varland to make that start he isn't allowed to be called back up for 10 days. It hasn't been 10 days so Sands wasn't an option to come back and fill the long relief role again. I'm not predicting it, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see Headrick sent back down after pitching 0 innings for the Twins and Sands come back and take his spot after the 10 days.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think this is a "Sands had his chance" situation. The Twins wanted to push Maeda's start back. Sands had just thrown multiple innings and wasn't going to get that spot start so they needed to call someone else up. Sands was the obvious choice to be sent down. After he was sent down for Varland to make that start he isn't allowed to be called back up for 10 days. It hasn't been 10 days so Sands wasn't an option to come back and fill the long relief role again. I'm not predicting it, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see Headrick sent back down after pitching 0 innings for the Twins and Sands come back and take his spot after the 10 days.

IO agree with you, but I am not convinced that Sands is the guy.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

IO agree with you, but I am not convinced that Sands is the guy.

Oh, me neither. But he serves the purpose of the long man role they're looking for.

[IndianaTwin]

Because they have options left, I see Sands, now Headrick and next Megill rotating through the eighth bullpen spot until each either pitches himself up into the top 7 or down to the “no longer in the mix” category.

If one of them pitches themselves up the ladder and someone like Moran struggles, they could swaps roles, etc. 

[stringer bell]

9 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Because they have options left, I see Sands, now Headrick and next Megill rotating through the eighth bullpen spot until each either pitches himself up into the top 7 or down to the “no longer in the mix” category.

If one of them pitches themselves up the ladder and someone like Moran struggles, they could swaps roles, etc. 

Don't forget Josh Winder. He's further along in rehab than Polanco and Kirilloff and has worked multiple innings out of the bullpen in each of his outings. He is on the 40-man roster, so when he's ready to go, he could be promoted directly and save having his option used (for now).