Why have the Twins been dumping so much salary and players the last couple years?

[jokin]

I'd amend that to: Are we required to believe what he says is the truth?

 

The answer it "yes" or you're not a "real" fan.

[nicksaviking]

Great slippery slope there.

 

If you want above-average pitchers, you have to either develop them or acquire them before they have any major league experience. That's what the Twins did. The acquired front-of-the-rotation arms (Meyer, May) to complement their in-house guys (Gibson, Berrios). The ultimate goal is to build a rotation that can win a World Series.

 

 

But that's half the issue. If the Twins weren't going to use the flexibility bestwoed on them due to the lower than expected payroll on higher quality free agent pitchers, why did they sign any pitchers at all? If the goal is to develop your own arms and not build through free agency, why are Pelfrey and Correia taking roster spots away from Gibson, Hendriks, Deduno, Hernandez and DeVries?

 

Obviously Ryan thinks he DOES need to use free agency, otherwise he wouldn't have signed anyone this offseason.

[nicksaviking]

I simply continue to care very little about payroll. I care to a point but can easily walk away from it because the Angels brought in Pujols... everyone predicted them to win it all and they didn't come close. This year they bring in Hamilton... Everyone predicted them to win it all and they are now talking about the end of Scioscia.

 

I think using the payroll argument is overly simplistic. That's all.

 

I don't think anyone here would care much about payroll either if this team was doing well. However they have many gaping holes and since there is no immediate remedy for those holes in the minors, (top of the rotation arms, middle infield help) the only rememdy is the extra money the brand new stadium is generating and the salary vacated by former players. Yet the Twins are not using it because it appears that paying over Terry Ryan's estimation of market value is an indignity he refuses to bare, even at the cost of success.

[Mike Sixel]

I think Nick just hit the ball out of the park:

 

Ryan would rather fail and have money, than risk spending money and still failing. I could speculate on the cause for this behavior, but that would just be a guess. But the behavior is quite clear. It is better to not spend money and not succeed, than to spend money and maybe not succeed.

[jokin]

I think Nick just hit the ball out of the park:

 

Ryan would rather fail and have money, than risk spending money and still failing. I could speculate on the cause for this behavior, but that would just be a guess. But the behavior is quite clear. It is better to not spend money and not succeed, than to spend money and maybe not succeed.

 

It will be interesting to hear the response from the counterpoint of view. Nick and Mike are nailing this case down pat. Well done. Christy, Nurse, TW0, anyone?

[Oxtung]

I would read your comment as strongly saying the Twins should have signed a shortstop. As there were more holes this winter that needed to be filled than 2 starting pitchers and a SS I would have thought you thought the shortstop position should have been filled.

 

Your list of ERA+ leaders would have included Oswalt who is semi retired, Liriano,. Using three year data overlooks the downward trend of players.

 

You are misunderstanding on both accounts.

 

I was/am saying that the Twins had many holes/unknowns this offseason but had internal candidates to potentially fill some of those roles. I am just fine with Parmelee, Plouffe and even Dozier getting looks this season. I think Hicks should have been at AAA to start the season for many reasons but in CF at least we have a prospect with some upside so I let that slide. But we don't have prospects to fill the holes at SS or several pitching slots. I would have been fine with the Twins getting good players at 2 out of those 3 positions and punting the third. Instead they got no shortstop and scraped the barrel for 2 pitchers while just pocketing tens of millions of dollars.

 

I was pretty unclear about my ERA+ methodology so let me explain that better. I looked at the full list of pitchers signed over the previous 3 seasons then using Baseball-Reference determined their actual ERA+ over the 3 year period before they signed in FA. So from 2009-2011 Jason Marquis had an ERA+ of 96 (where 100 is average). In 2012 with the Twins and the Padres he had an ERA+ of 72. He was below average before he signed and below average after he signed. Neither Liriano nor Oswalt were on my lists. Liriano because his 3 year ERA+ was only 89 and Oswalt because in 2012 he was a swing man not a starter.

[Riverbrian]

I don't think anyone here would care much about payroll either if this team was doing well. However they have many gaping holes and since there is no immediate remedy for those holes in the minors, (top of the rotation arms, middle infield help) the only rememdy is the extra money the brand new stadium is generating and the salary vacated by former players. Yet the Twins are not using it because it appears that paying over Terry Ryan's estimation of market value is an indignity he refuses to bare, even at the cost of success.

 

I'm fine with your thinking in basic form.

 

I would like to say that the team is doing well. Will they continue to be doing well as the season progresses. I don't know... All any of us can do is assume. So I do reject that premise.

 

I can't speak for TR and I won't try... I can only speak for myself and these are my suspicions.

 

I think Terry Ryan has a little penny pinching bone in his body. I don't know for sure but I assume this because I watched Bill Smith spend a little and Terry Ryan not be as financially aggressive. That's the basis of my personal feeling and its a weak basis and I admit that.

 

I do believe Pohlad will spend but I have no idea... No way of knowing but I believe them when they say money isn't an issue. I'm guessing the issue is philosophical(TR) not financial.

 

Now as for the philosophy. Is it right or wrong? I personally think TR had done a great job and I think he can do it again. I trust TR over Smith by miles. That's my personal opinion.

 

I also believe that TR is the top of the food chain. He trusts the people he hires and he filters a lot of opinion and the endorsement from others in the organization led to our Free Agent execution in the off season. I don't believe that its TR sitting with a spreadsheet and a closed office door making decisions like we make our fantasy squad. They are not wrong yet!!! I'll wait and see.

 

As a General Manager you are responsible for a lot. You can be a General Manager like the Blue Jays guy and aggressively attack a problem with expense or you can be more prudent like TR seems to be. Neither method is guaranteed to work or fail. But a million dollars is still a million dollars. It shouldn't be taken lightly,

 

These are guesses of mine.

 

Now if I was in charge starting October 2012. I wouldn't have spent a dime on Middle Infield and I wouldn't have traded for it.

 

I don't believe there was a single middle infield FA that was significantly better than what we have right now. I realize that we have major question marks but none of the Free Agents were non question marks. Maybe a little bit better but just a little and maybe... We had a spare million or 20 to throw around but why throw millions at something unless you are damn sure. There were not any decent middle infield options.

 

I also would not have traded for any middle infielders for two reasons.

A. Limited trading resources should have been applied to pitching in my opinion.

B. The price for middle infield was expensive. According to rumors: The Rangers would not part with Andrus or Profar for Justin Upton. Grigarious cost the D-Backs a huge haul. That's real expensive and pursuit of it would hampered our ability to land Meyer, May, and Worley.

 

Now Pitching... That is a different story... I was gulping pretty hard going into the off season. 2012 was about as bad as it can get. Something had to be done... I love the trades he made and I would have tried to do something similar. I probably would have thrown a lot of cash at Jackson or Sanchez or Marcum out of panic and I would of thrown that money knowing that I felt that none of those guys were worth the money it would have taken. It's quite possible that making a panic decision like that... Would have been wrong.

 

I would have also gone after a few lower dollar guys... Pelfrey would have been high on my list... Iwakuma would have been high on my list. Correia would not have been on my list.

 

But... In the end... What do I know... I watch a lot of baseball and I liked these guys because I watched them and I liked what I saw. I don't have a stop watch... radar... medical reports or plane tickets to his next start. I'm not trying to be a professional.

 

In the end... I've watched a lot of baseball over the decades. The correlation between money and winning is probably there but it isn't large enough to be the answer because the loaded teams fail frequently and the low money teams do well frequently.

 

I've come to the conclusion that Pitching is the best barometer to winning and it takes more than one big guy. It takes a rotation and replacements for the rotation.

 

I also believe the guy hitting .220 can win you a game almost as often as they guy hitting .260. It's all about little moments inside each game. Not a collection of numbers and dollar signs.

[cmathewson]

Seems like not all FA pitchers fall off the proverbial cliff because they put pen to paper.

 

No. But enough do that teams are somewhat cautious and pay attention to the signs of regression. This crop seemed particularly prone to regression.

 

What's hard to understand is your insistence that signing good pitchers doesn't matter.

 

I never said that. Of course signing good pitchers matters. There just weren't many good pitchers to be had this past offseason. What I said was they were all likely to be below average, and I'm not so arrogant to think I can look at a spread sheet and project which ones would be marginally better than which.

 

What's hard to understand is the idea that you think Correia and Pelfrey coming off surgery are close enough to the "average pitcher" category to be nearly equivalent to actual average (or better) pitchers.

 

I can't help you there. Correia's career ERA+ is 89, which is somewhere between replacement level and average. Pelfrey's is 91. Pelfrey was a longer shot, I admit. But he has a higher upside if he can recover. I didn't have medical reports, so I trusted the experts to make that decision. Anyway, it wasn't a horrible investment. If he doesn't work out, I thought Deduno would be better than most of the other stiffs they could have signed.

 

What's hard to understand is the idea that the Twins should just automatically punt the season before it's begun because we think the Twins won't be any good.

 

I don't think they should punt the season. I just don't think they can expect to contend when they have five regulars without a full year of major league experience at their positions. So you hope for the best and plan for the worst. And you spend most of the year developing guys. If they exceed expectations, great. But it's just not reasonable to expect it.

 

Also this: If the five guys you hope to develop pan out (unlikely), you go more aggressively into free agency after this year, when there are many more guys on the market who have a chance to be more than a marginal upgrade over your inhouse guys (Deduno, De Vries, Hendriks, Gibson).

 

Most of what I've said above is as much about the free agent market this past offseason as anything. I really hoped the Twins would get some mythical front-line pitcher with all the money they have lying around. The reality was, that guy didn't exist. The closest was Sanchez, and $5/85 or 6/$96 is 30% more than he's worth in a normal year, imho.

[Mike Sixel]

Um, the FA list next year is worse than last year, from what I've read on line. I have not verified that, but I've seen it stated on ESPN and CBS. So I don't know that there are "many more guys on the market". Oh, and every team will have an extra $25MM in their pocket, I would bet good money salaries go UP next year, a lot, not stay the same....

[Mike Sixel]

And, the Twins will have guys making the league minimum at 3B, SS, 2B, CF, RF, maybe DH, maybe LF, 1-3 starting pitching positions also, plus their bench. Around half the team will be at or near the league minimum. Are you saying that that is NOT the time to spend more on other players, when they can afford to? But, once those other guys start getting expensive, THEN you should go out and overpay for FAs (because most FAs get more than internal signings)?

[Mike Sixel]

BTW, thats the opposite of what SF and SEA are doing in teh NFL right now. Becuase their QBs are currently cheap, they are overspending on other positions relative to other teams, because they can afford to right now. When their QBs get more expensive, that will not work.

 

Now, when the majority of the team is really cheap and will be for 5 more years, now is when you CAN afford to sign free agents and still have a reasonable payroll.

[launchingthrees]

No. But enough do that teams are somewhat cautious and pay attention to the signs of regression. This crop seemed particularly prone to regression.

 

Show your work. What are you using to project regression? Saying it doesn't make it so. Your posts are filled with really poor analysis and a handful of biases.

[Rosterman]

Again, you have to put a value on players and where they fare in the franchise. Right now, the Twins have to make a major decision on Justin Morneau. Is he worth overpaying for because of his years as a Twin, will he take less to play here, or does he grab the first decent offer when he becomes free (a la Nathan, Baker).

 

You never know. Is/was Cuddyer worth SIGNIFICANTLY more than Josh Willingham? I was more surprised that Cuddyer did sign for more after Willingham took less to be a Twin. Go figure.

 

I still don't understand teams overpaying, in my eyes, for players like Lohse, Bourne and such. Shows that players are either (1) more well position to wait for what they want or, using Nathan as an example (and Correia, I guess) grabbing an offer that comes by that they like, rather than going back and saying ("Hey, I got this offer, will you consider doing more.")

 

It has become less of a negotiation and bluff game, more of laying your cards out on the table right away and someone grabs it, or the player waiting until someone comes to their terms, at least on the above-average player scale.

 

And we have to factor in all these lovely issues that us armchair guys don't do...needed time in the organization, current vs. future health, etc. etc. I would like to assume that the Twins,a s most major league teams, have a big mind chart looking at the organization today (now), 3 years out, five years out and all the "ifs and buts" that happen around that schedule.

[Riverbrian]

Again, you have to put a value on players and where they fare in the franchise. Right now, the Twins have to make a major decision on Justin Morneau. Is he worth overpaying for because of his years as a Twin, will he take less to play here, or does he grab the first decent offer when he becomes free (a la Nathan, Baker).

 

You never know. Is/was Cuddyer worth SIGNIFICANTLY more than Josh Willingham? I was more surprised that Cuddyer did sign for more after Willingham took less to be a Twin. Go figure.

 

I still don't understand teams overpaying, in my eyes, for players like Lohse, Bourne and such. Shows that players are either (1) more well position to wait for what they want or, using Nathan as an example (and Correia, I guess) grabbing an offer that comes by that they like, rather than going back and saying ("Hey, I got this offer, will you consider doing more.")

 

It has become less of a negotiation and bluff game, more of laying your cards out on the table right away and someone grabs it, or the player waiting until someone comes to their terms, at least on the above-average player scale.

 

And we have to factor in all these lovely issues that us armchair guys don't do...needed time in the organization, current vs. future health, etc. etc. I would like to assume that the Twins,a s most major league teams, have a big mind chart looking at the organization today (now), 3 years out, five years out and all the "ifs and buts" that happen around that schedule.

 

I agree with every word. There is a reason that you are on my smart guy list.

[launchingthrees]

BTW, thats the opposite of what SF and SEA are doing in teh NFL right now. Becuase their QBs are currently cheap, they are overspending on other positions relative to other teams, because they can afford to right now. When their QBs get more expensive, that will not work.

 

Now, when the majority of the team is really cheap and will be for 5 more years, now is when you CAN afford to sign free agents and still have a reasonable payroll.

 

Yep, Unfortunately instead of saying "we have a playoff team at 70 million/year in 2015. Lets spend and try to put together a world series team" they'll say "we have a playoff team at 70 million/year. There's no reason to try to get better"

[cmathewson]

Show your work. What are you using to project regression? Saying it doesn't make it so. Your posts are filled with really poor analysis and a handful of biases.

 

See the thread on pitchers we didn't sign. All but three (Dempster, Villenueva, Correia) of the available free agents who had a chance to be average or above regressed to replacement level or below, at least so far.

[launchingthrees]

See the thread on pitchers we didn't sign. All but three (Dempster, Villenueva, Correia) of the available free agents who had a chance to be average or above regressed to replacement level or below, at least so far.

 

You said "This crop seemed particularly prone to regression." So what were you using to project regression during the offseason when the decision to sign or not to sign was made? Otherwise it's just hindsight bias.

[nicksaviking]

Again, you have to put a value on players and where they fare in the franchise. Right now, the Twins have to make a major decision on Justin Morneau. Is he worth overpaying for because of his years as a Twin, will he take less to play here, or does he grab the first decent offer when he becomes free (a la Nathan, Baker).

 

We can take Morneau and follow a slightly different string. Say he continues his current production as does Parmelee. At the end of the season the Twins have three options: negotiate a new deal, let him walk, or extend him a qualifying offer.

 

For the sake of this discussion let's say the Twins do the smart thing and pick option #3. The qualifying offer may be $13.5-$14 million next year. Is Morneau worth that much at his current production? No. But is he a better player than Parmelee? Yes. If the Twins have no intention of spending big in free agency and have salary to spare, there is no reason they should not extend Morneau a qualifying offer as he is an upgrade to any other logical option under this scenario.

 

The only reason you would not overpay for him is if you are bluntly offended at the prospect of a player getting the better end of a deal. I don't think car tires should cost $100 each, but I'm not going to drive around on the rims just to spite the Michelin Man.

[ThePuck]

We can take Morneau and follow a slightly different string. Say he continues his current production as does Parmelee. At the end of the season the Twins have three options: negotiate a new deal, let him walk, or extend him a qualifying offer.

 

For the sake of this discussion let's say the Twins do the smart thing and pick option #3. The qualifying offer may be $13.5-$14 million next year. Is Morneau worth that much at his current production? No. But is he a better player than Parmelee? Yes. If the Twins have no intention of spending big in free agency and have salary to spare, there is no reason they should not extend Morneau a qualifying offer as he is an upgrade to any other logical option under this scenario.

 

The only reason you would not overpay for him is if you are so bluntly offended at the prospect of a player getting the better end of a deal. I don't think car tires should cost $100 each, but I'm not going to drive around on the rims just to spite the Michelin Man.

 

It's always seemed to me that Ryan is more worried about making a mistake and looking bad than anything else. He goes for the low-risk high reward guys cause, if they work out, he looks like a genius. If they don't work out, it's like 'low risk-high reward', no biggy...at least we didn't spend too much for the guy. You know, as if it excuses the signing that had a 90% chance of failing from the beginning. If he takes a chance and signs someone and the player flops, he looks really bad. That and this thing where HE decides what a player is worth, instead ofthe market, and then won't waiver.

 

In my opinion, it's a lot about ego. Same with Gardy, big ego. The disdain he shows reporters when they dare ask him a question about a decision that flopped even once, much less if they follow up.

[PseudoSABR]

I wish this thread would die. It's full of speculation, hind-sight analysis, and obstinance.

[ThePuck]

I wish this thread would die. It's full of speculation, hind-sight analysis, and obstinance.

 

How many contributions have you given to it's continued existence?

[cmathewson]

You said "This crop seemed particularly prone to regression." So what were you using to project regression during the offseason when the decision to sign or not to sign was made? Otherwise it's just hindsight bias.

 

Age, innings history, injury history. Very few of them had pitched significant innings in the past few years (e.g. McCarthy). Several of them had significant recent unresolved injury histories (e.g. Marcum).

[PseudoSABR]

How many contributions have you given to it's continued existence?

Too many. I'm culpable, as well.

[TheLeviathan]

I wish this thread would die. It's full of speculation, hind-sight analysis, and obstinance.

 

Um, are you advocating shutting down the board? Most sports-related conversations fall into the first two categories alone.

 

I would suggest any obstinance is largely being perpetrated by those who keep painting themselves into corners and then trying a different absurd corner. We should be able to agree on some simple facts (the Twins are cheap, they're going to need to assume significant risk to add/retain players, Ryan's track record on this still leaves the future unclear) and move on. Yet somehow....we can't do that.

[launchingthrees]

Meh I think it's good to out the front office apologists whenever possible. The more people who see the type of dissonance that comes with defending a 70m payroll the better.

 

The FO gets away with spending 35% of revenue because the handful of misinformed fans claiming that spending more doesn't equate to wins. I mean today someone claimed spending makes the team worse. How does that thought process even exist in 2013 with all the data available to us?

[drjim]

Um, the FA list next year is worse than last year, from what I've read on line. I have not verified that, but I've seen it stated on ESPN and CBS. So I don't know that there are "many more guys on the market". Oh, and every team will have an extra $25MM in their pocket, I would bet good money salaries go UP next year, a lot, not stay the same....

 

I'll ask my most basic question again. Do you honestly believe the Twins could outbid the Dodgers?

[drjim]

Meh I think it's good to out the front office apologists whenever possible. The more people who see the type of dissonance that comes with defending a 70m payroll the better.

 

The FO gets away with spending 35% of revenue because the handful of misinformed fans claiming that spending more doesn't equate to wins. I mean today someone claimed spending makes the team worse. How does that thought process even exist in 2013 with all the data available to us?

 

Or they analyze the actual market of real actual players with other teams competing for said players services. They then think of realistic outcomes instead of raging about hypothetical situations involving hypothetical players.

[TheLeviathan]

Or they analyze the actual market of real actual players with other teams competing for said players services. They then think of realistic outcomes instead of raging about hypothetical situations involving hypothetical players.

 

Let's make this direct and play in your ballpark. Exactly who in the next two years should we be bidding on in FA and for how much. (Careful about not "hamstringing" the future payroll and about what an "above average" pitcher by your definition is)

 

I eagerly await the removal of hypotheticals on your part.

[launchingthrees]

Or they analyze the actual market of real actual players with other teams competing for said players services. They then think of realistic outcomes instead of raging about hypothetical situations involving hypothetical players.

 

To call what this group does analysis is generous It's mostly rationalizing, not understanding statistics(awesome ERA W-L comparisons in the pitcher thread). I mean i understand the twins defending their payroll but for consumers to take that line is pretty bizarre. Cutting payroll from 110m-76m because of weak free agent classes is laughable.

[Oxtung]

Age, innings history, injury history. Very few of them had pitched significant innings in the past few years (e.g. McCarthy). Several of them had significant recent unresolved injury histories (e.g. Marcum).

 

If it's just innings you're looking for then neither Pelfrey nor Correia were perticularly good signings. Deduno, De Vries, Hendricks, Hermsen, May, Swarzak, Duensing, Rule 5 pick or [insert AAAA starter here] could have provided them.

 

Or the Twins could have targeted a FA starter that actually has provided a lot of innings over the last 3 years:

 

Guthrie 599 IP

Haren 650 IP

Greinke 604 IP

Sanchez 587 IP

Dempster 590 IP

Jackson 599 IP

Marcum 520 IP

 

Instead we ended up with Correia 470 IP and Pelfrey 417 IP. Seems like "injury prone/concern" Marcum still managed to end up with more innings than Correia and Pelfrey. Hell, Liriano and Lohse both pitched more than Correia.