Byron Buxton and the Trout timeline

[jokin]

I think you are getting a little too hung up on the exact age...

 

Trout graduated high school at 17 yr and 9 mo and Machado at 17 yr 10 mo. Buxton graduated at 18 yr 6 mo. Maybe this difference would be important if you are talking about international prospects that sign at 16, but the main point we are debating for the three prospects is the 24 months after being drafted.

 

Machado also followed the Trout promotion time line...

 

After signing he started off in the GCL and was promoted to the NY/Penn (only 2 and 7 games, respectively). The following year he started off in the Sally, and was promoted to high-A on June 23 (two weeks ahead of Trout ). He started his third season in AA, and was promoted to Balt. after playing 108 games.

 

Perhaps we could break it down to games played in Rookie/Low-A/High-A/AA...

 

Trout 39/86/50/91

Machado 9/38/63/109

Mauer 32/110/62/73

 

And in terms of challenging these young kids, remember that Trout's initial call up did not go well (OPS<.700), and he had to start the next year in AAA. What happened next is, of course, legendary. However, it appears even Mike Trout himself can't repeat 2012, so what makes us think Buck can?

 

You're not already calling Mike Trout a "bust", are you?

 

Again, to me, it's all about 2015....

And the precedent established of 2 other talented players moving up (to much better teams than the Twins) in the 3rd year of their professional career....

And the wide open path to the majors with the lack of depth in CF.....

And the fact that the Twins had drafted possibly the best/most talented player in all the 2012 draft.....

And that it will cost the Twins nothing to find out just what they have here....

 

Again, this is all predicated on Buxton maintaining a trajectory at or above what Trout, and to a lesser degree, Machado laid the blueprint for.

[Shane Wahl]

Well, like almost everyone is raking in the system at the bottom now (Buxton and Sano are super-raking). Meanwhile the Twins have a bunch of players who are in EST or injured like Kepler. When Kepler gets to Cedar Rapids, I would promote Buxton and watch the team in Fort Myers with Buxton, Michael, Rosario, Sano, and Vargas. Sano, Rosario, Michael, and Vargas can then get some AA time this year. I understand patience, but I don't like such patience at the lower levels. Challenging these players with promotions mid-season just seems to be the way to go, in my view. Arcia moved quickly, Hicks did not and the development of those two is pretty telling. Same for Parmelee and Benson. I don't really get the fascination with keeping players at low-A and then later at AA for 500-1,000 plate appearances. The FSL is the first real test and there is value in AAA time.

 

With regard to Buxton, I merely move his ETA up a full year (from 2016 to 2015). But hopefully he spends some time at EVERY level along the way.

[kab21]

I'm sorry Shane but Hicks, parmelee and Benson weren't earning fast promotions and that's why they moved slow. Parmelee actually needed to be demoted one year to get on track.

[Shane Wahl]

I submit 2011 AA seasons for Parmelee and Benson, and Hicks' 2012 season as evidence, kab21. Also Hicks' 2010 time at Beloit got a bit old as well.

[kab21]

So you think Parmelee should have been promoted to AA in 2009? In 2011 Parmelee was repeating AA and had completely sucked in 2010.

 

Pretty much the same story for Benson. Both of these hitters completely sucked in A ball. why do you think they deserved midseason promotions so they can play at 2 levels in a year.

 

I think you are also looking back in hindsight at Hicks 2010 season. IIRC Hicks had an absolutely incredible hot streak early in the season and went into an awful slump. It's hard to promote someone when they are in an awful slump.

 

These players did not deserve to be pushed fast. As a matter of fact they deserved to repeat these leagues.

[gunnarthor]

I think Kab21 has this about right. Players mostly dictate how fast they move and the Twins do seem more willing to move elite prospects than the critics are suggesting.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

To be completely honest, I think comparing anybody from the 2012 draft to anyone prior is apples and oranges. The signing deadline was moved up, guys signed quicker, guys played more. If the rules hadn't changed, there is no way Buxton would be in Cedar Rapids right now. He probably wouldn't have taken a single professional at-bat in 2012.

 

As for Buxton's timeline, he'll earn a mid-season promotion to Fort Myers and finish the year there. I think he'll be in New Britain Opening Day 2014 assuming he doesn't completely implode. At that point (or maybe closer to the summer), I think he's on the Twins radar.

 

And for the sake of saying, I think Sano moves up to New Britain mid-season. Gets a big-league invite next spring and is a poor month of Trevor Plouffe away from being the everyday 3B. All of that dependent on being able to stay at 3B, which I think he will.

 

Rosario and Meyer are probably on similar timelines.

[Oxtung]

I don't get why people think the Twins need to move prospects really fast through the minors. It doesn't matter how fast a prospect moves through the system; it matters what they do once they get to the Twins. According to Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: Promoting Prospects the Twins have been pretty good at getting production from their young players.

[jokin]

To be completely honest, I think comparing anybody from the 2012 draft to anyone prior is apples and oranges. The signing deadline was moved up, guys signed quicker, guys played more. If the rules hadn't changed, there is no way Buxton would be in Cedar Rapids right now. He probably wouldn't have taken a single professional at-bat in 2012.

 

As for Buxton's timeline, he'll earn a mid-season promotion to Fort Myers and finish the year there. I think he'll be in New Britain Opening Day 2014 assuming he doesn't completely implode. At that point (or maybe closer to the summer), I think he's on the Twins radar.

 

And for the sake of saying, I think Sano moves up to New Britain mid-season. Gets a big-league invite next spring and is a poor month of Trevor Plouffe away from being the everyday 3B. All of that dependent on being able to stay at 3B, which I think he will.

 

Rosario and Meyer are probably on similar timelines.

 

I'm not following the logic of the supposition here. Here are the facts:

 

Mike Trout drafted in '09 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #25.

207 PAs for 2 teams (RKL and A levels). Started year 2 in A ball.

 

Manny Machado drafted in '10 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #3.

39 PAs for 2 teams (RKL and A- levels). Started year 2 in A ball.

 

Byron Buxton drafted in '12 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #2.

189 PAs for 2 teams (RKL/RKL). Started year 2 in A ball.

 

Trout and Machado had extended MLB call-ups in year 3 and became full-time players in year 4. That schedule would Buxton in the Twins starting lineup in CF on opening day in 2015.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not following the logic of the supposition here. Here are the facts:

 

Mike Trout drafted in '09 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #25.

207 PAs for 2 teams (RKL and A levels). Started year 2 in A ball.

 

Manny Machado drafted in '10 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #3.

39 PAs for 2 teams (RKL and A- levels). Started year 2 in A ball.

 

Byron Buxton drafted in '12 after HS graduation in the first round, pick #2.

189 PAs for 2 teams (RKL/RKL). Started year 2 in A ball.

 

Trout and Machado had extended MLB call-ups in year 3 and became full-time players in year 4. That schedule would Buxton in the Twins starting lineup in CF on opening day in 2015.

 

Jeremy's point is mostly right. Prior to changing the signing date a lot of prospects didn't sign until Aug 15 and then didn't get any professional work that first year. Machado played in 9 games after he signed, for instance. Trout was a late first round pick who signed for slot right away so he did play a lot his first year but that was the exception. Had Buxton wanted more than slot under the old rules, the commissioner wouldn't have approved his signing until Aug 15 and the Twins probably wouldn't have seen him play that first year. I think that was the point Jeremy was making.

[Steve Lein]

Just another example of a timeline with a player destroying a league hitting-wise:

 

In his first exposure to the Florida State League to start his 2012 season, Detroit Tigers top prospect Nick Castellanos batted .405/.461/.553. He played 55 games. So essentially it took until the all-star break for Detroit to move him up (and he struggled big time at the next level).

 

To expect sooner than that, is just plain dumb, quite frankly. It's a rarity everywhere, especially for a player making his full-season-league MiLB debut.

[jokin]

Just another example of a timeline with a player destroying a league hitting-wise:

 

In his first exposure to the Florida State League to start his 2012 season, Detroit Tigers top prospect Nick Castellanos batted .405/.461/.553. He played 55 games. So essentially it took until the all-star break for Detroit to move him up (and he struggled big time at the next level).

 

To expect sooner than that, is just plain dumb, quite frankly. It's a rarity everywhere, especially for a player making his full-season-league MiLB debut.

 

Apples and Oranges versus top, universally accepted, elite prospects. Castellanos was the 44th pick, well down from the top-end talent pool in 2010. No one can say he was improperly rushed too quickly or that his career has been mishandled. To this point, with the $6M invested up front in Buxton, it behooves the club to move him along at a rate commensurate with his level of production and talent potential- recent precedent has been firmly established with Trout and Machado. Given the enormous up-front invesment, it would be "dumb" to waste such potential talent languishing needlessly downline in the organizational depth chart, should he continue his current rate of success.

[kab21]

Castellanos might have been the 44th pick but he was not well down the talent pool. He was an overslot pick and has one of the nicest swings in the minors.

[jokin]

Castellanos might have been the 44th pick but he was not well down the talent pool. He was an overslot pick and has one of the nicest swings in the minors.

 

He might have a nice swing, but he's demonstrably not right in that Harper/Machado/Harvey/Sale range of talent, which is what I was referring to, and which I still think Buxton has a good chance to be.

[kab21]

I hope you are using more than this his draft position to backup your analysis.

 

Nobody is in the Harper range of talent FWIW. And I have no idea why you are discussing two college pitchers that moved fast. Are you hoping to distract everyone from how wrong you were originally?

[jokin]

I hope you are using more than this his draft position to backup your analysis.

 

Nobody is in the Harper range of talent FWIW. And I have no idea why you are discussing two college pitchers that moved fast. Are you hoping to distract everyone from how wrong you were originally?

 

By what measurable metric am I wrong? I have clearly pointed out that were Buxton to maintain the standard that Trout set at the same level, which he is now surpassing, than that should merit him for consideration to stay on the fasttrack to the majors. The eyewitnesses in Cedar Rapids concur that he compares favorably to, if not better than, Trout at the same point in time. The Twins clearly needs more depth in CF at the upper levels of the organizaton. 4 players chosen high in the 2010 draft are now key players on their respective teams. I brought up 3 position players chosen within the first 3 picks of their respective drafts, plus Trout at 25. These were the top players in their respective years, as Joe Mauer was, when he was drafted. Not players chosen 44th. Why is it so controversial to suspect that Buxton can have his career move on the same track as the others mentioned?

[kab21]

You're only argument that Castellanos was in a different tier of talent so far is that he was the 44th pick. He was at the absolute minimum a mid first rd talent and part of the gap between Castellanos and Buxton/Machado was the difference in defensive value. Coming into the draft his bat was that good.

 

FWIW - his signing bonus was 3.45M. That is equal to the 5th overall slot in this years draft. He was an elite bat in the draft.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In his first exposure to the Florida State League to start his 2012 season, Detroit Tigers top prospect Nick Castellanos batted .405/.461/.553. He played 55 games. So essentially it took until the all-star break for Detroit to move him up (and he struggled big time at the next level).

 

That's a .148 isolated power average (slugging minus batting average). Buxton is at .292 right now. He has more HR than Castellanos had, in less than half as many PAs so far (plus more steals and almost as many walks). Castellanos performance wasn't bad, but it was a classic "batting average on balls in play" spike, with little value in plate discipline or power.

 

I think the premise here is that Buxton could be promoted aggressively if he keeps up his early displays of plate discipline and power.

[2wins87]

In a chat with Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette, farm director Brad Steil was asked if Buxton would be kept in Cedar Rapids for at least half a year. He said:

 

"Don’t know about that. We’ll have to see."

 

So it seems that the Twins don't plan on holding Buxton back for some arbitrary amount of time if he continues to play well.

[Steve Lein]

Nick Castellanos is #21 on Baseball America's and MLB.com's pre-2013 top 100 prospects. Was just noting another player with similar hype who had hit comparably to what Buxton is doing now, and how long it took for the team to promote him. Mike Trout played EIGHTY games in the MWL before he was moved up to the CAL League. I just think its way to premature to call for his promotion already. They aren't going to mess with any "accelerated timeline" by keeping him in Cedar Rapids for half a season. If they do that, and he does well at Fort Myers, he's likely in AA to start next year and knocking on the door already. That's plenty fast.

[ThePuck]

In a chat with Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette, farm director Brad Steil was asked if Buxton would be kept in Cedar Rapids for at least half a year. He said:

 

"Don’t know about that. We’ll have to see."

 

So it seems that the Twins don't plan on holding Buxton back for some arbitrary amount of time if he continues to play well.

 

Is that the conclusion you get from that quote?

[gunnarthor]

Is that the conclusion you get from that quote?

 

I read it the same way too.

[ThePuck]

I read it the same way too.

 

It's not even an answer...'don't know, have to wait and see.' It's about as non-committal as it gets and leaves it open to whatever you thought of the situation before he ever said it. It could be that the truth is something no one wants to hear, so he just throws out that quote.

 

Here's the Q&A right before that one:

 

Q: How long will Byron Buxton be here?

 

A: Good question. I understand it. He’s playing very well. There are still some things I think he can learn here. We’ll just continue to evaluate it as we go.

 

It's another non-answer. BTW, non-answers are fine...but we can't conclude things from them.

[jokin]

It's not even an answer...'don't know, have to wait and see.' It's about as non-committal as it gets and leaves it open to whatever you thought of the situation before he ever said it. It could be that the truth is something no one wants to hear, so he just throws out that quote.

 

Here's the Q&A right before that one:

 

Q: How long will Byron Buxton be here?

 

A: Good question. I understand it. He’s playing very well. There are still some things I think he can learn here. We’ll just continue to evaluate it as we go.

 

It's another non-answer. BTW, non-answers are fine...but we can't conclude things from them.

 

It looks like others have read this thread, used the information supplied and then made their own inquiries, and then, drawn their own conclusions:

 

 

Mackey: Byron Buxton could move up the ladder faster than people think - Minnesota Twins news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

I'm hoping he will still be in CR while I still have a chance to see him play. If not, I plan on making a side trip to Fort Myers from my planned trip to Orlando in July.

[ThePuck]

It looks like others have read this thread, used the information supplied and then made their own inquiries, and then, drawn their own conclusions:

 

 

Mackey: Byron Buxton could move up the ladder faster than people think - Minnesota Twins news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

I'm hoping he will still be in CR while I still have a chance to see him play. If not, I plan on making a side trip to Fort Myers from my planned trip to Orlando in July.

 

I have no idea when he'll be where. After reading those quotes, I still can't speculate. I still have no idea if there is a preset time frame or not :-)

[jokin]

I have no idea when he'll be where. After reading those quotes, I still can't speculate. I still have no idea if there is a preset time frame or not :-)

 

With the lack of CF depth- organization-wide, it seems impossible, even in the Twins organization, that they will choose the all-too-familiar and stultifyingly slow promotional path for Buxton--- if--- he keeps up anything close to his current blistering pace.

 

Here's what Sickels said about Buxton from last night:

 

"Everything you've heard about Byron Buxton's tools is true. He actually didn't have a great game last night as a hitter, but I'll have the details about that in my full report. However, the tools are simply amazing. I knew he was at least a 70 runner but if anything his speed is underplayed. There are reports that he's been clocked at 3.70 down the line this year and I'd believe it. I didn't get a stopwatch on him, but in the first inning he made my jaw drop by hitting a routine ground ball to the third baseman, who made a normal play and got off a normal throw. . .which Buxton beat easily for a single. That's not far from Billy Hamilton fast. Buxton is a true blazer. "

 

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/9/4316308/minor-league-ball-gameday-may-9

 

I for one, would like to have the majority of the new wave talent comfortably ensconced in their positions by early 2015. Barring injury, it would be inexcusable if Buxton continues to impress as he is and he isn't made ready by then, at the latest.

[jokin]

More experts making the case.

 

From Mike Rosenbaum (lead writer for MLB Prospects):

 

 

 

"Speaking of the devil, what Byron Buxton is doing this season at Low-A is unbelievable. Top draft pick Buxton has nearly mastered Low-A after only five weeks, and he’s pacing the Midwest League in nearly every offensive category (and has reached base in every game played thus far).

 

The 19-year-old has one of the highest ceilings among all minor league position prospects, and he is making a strong case for a top-10 overall ranking by midseason."

[jokin]

Head-poundingly, mind-numbingly inane comments from the Twins FO on Buxton, per Dougie:

 

"Phil Mackey laid out a compelling case for Twins outfield prospect Byron Buxton, 19, making it to the majors relatively soon.

In many ways, (Twins Vice President for Player Personnel, Mike) Radcliff agrees:

 

"He'll dictate."

 

 

Buxton is often compared to Braves outfielder B.J. Upton because both were the No. 2 overall pick out of high school. Upton made his major league debut two years after signing.

 

 

"He's a way better hitter than Upton," Radcliff said of Buxton. "Upton is a nice player, a plus defender. ... But Buxton has a swing that will allow him to hit for average. It's the fastest, quickest, most direct swing you'll see."

 

 

So, we will see Buxton at High-A Fort Myers soon?

 

 

"That's not imminent," Radcliff said.

 

 

Buxton is hitting .373/.488/.647 with 15 extra-base hits, 13 stolen bases and 31 runs scored in his first 28 games for Low-A Cedar Rapids."

 

 

If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers. And BOTH Upton brothers were called up to their major league teams as 19 year-olds. Even the extremely frugal Rays put their Upton brother on the fast track. As for the Twins? Well, they admit their prospect is better than at least one Upton, and they'll let Buxton "dictate" his promotion--- but his "dictation" to this point has proven to make his promotion "not imminent."

 

Got it, Mike!

[gunnarthor]

 

If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers. And BOTH Upton brothers were called up to their major league teams as 19 year-olds. Even the extremely frugal Rays put their Upton brother on the fast track. As for the Twins? Well, they admit their prospect is better than at least one Upton, and they'll let Buxton "dictate" his promotion--- but his "dictation" to this point has proven to make his promotion "not imminent."

 

Got it, Mike!

 

Think you're over reading this. The Twins have made it clear that they want Buxton to get a second look at the league before they promote him. He won't stay in low A all season. The Rays had Upton play 100 games at low A before they promoted him. And, while he got to the majors at 19, he spent his age 20 season in the minors.

[jokin]

Think you're over reading this. The Twins have made it clear that they want Buxton to get a second look at the league before they promote him. He won't stay in low A all season. The Rays had Upton play 100 games at low A before they promoted him. And, while he got to the majors at 19, he spent his age 20 season in the minors.

 

Except both Upton brothers started their pro careers in Low A. And I wouldn't have a problem if Buxton bounces back and forth from the major league club before he finally sticks. The Twins have $6M invested in him up front. Let's see what we've got, "Upton-like Sooner" rather than the possibly needlessly Twins' "SOP Later."