Article: Twins Being Crushed by Constant Contact

[Willihammer]

CMat is the Dark Knight.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I was trying to play Devils advocate by stating what I think is the Twins philosophy

There's your problem.

 

The Twins philosophy, on both sides of the ball: "Put the ball in play and let God sort it out."

[ThePuck]

Allow me to pile on here: from 2004-2007, Santana failed to pitch into the 7th inning 37 times. He also pitched into the 8th inning exactly 37 times. But one is rare and the other is common? Ha!

 

I've addressed that twice...broke his game logs down...put all the info out there...

[Otto von Ballpark]

I've addressed that twice...broke his game logs down...put all the info out there...

I know, I just thought it was funny that the number was exactly identical, so I had to chime in.

[jokin]

I know, I just thought it was funny that the number was exactly identical, so I had to chime in.

 

Not to sweat it, your post struck the statistical irony meter at "11" (especially when compared to Riverbrian, whose recent attempt only hit "7":jump:).

 

Puck gets attacked so often, he has sharpened his survival skills to such a degree that at times, even his issue-to-issue allies become accidental fair game.

[Nick Nelson]

CMat is the Dark Knight.

 

He's the hero we deserve, just not the one we need right now.

[Badsmerf]

LOL, this thread is awesome. I just read through it and love it.

[TheLeviathan]

Even though the Dark Knight crack did this effectively, I might have a bridge to offer here:

 

I think the Twins do prize innings most of all from starters. You hear it in the FO and managerial rhetoric all the time. So what if the problem is precisely what cmat has been demonstrating: the errant belief that less Ks = more innings.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Twins were factually ignorant about this and truly believed that their pitch to contact philosophy is more effective for starters "lasting deeper into games". This entire discussion may be more representative of the problem than we probably like to think.

[ThePuck]

Not to sweat it, your post struck the statistical irony meter at "11" (especially when compared to Riverbrian, whose recent attempt only hit "7":jump:).

 

Puck gets attacked so often, he has sharpened his survival skills to such a degree that at times, even his issue-to-issue allies become accidental fair game.

 

Did I make it sound like I was going after him? I was just pointing out I had already covered that. I'm glad he did too. :-)

[ThePuck]

I know, I just thought it was funny that the number was exactly identical, so I had to chime in.

 

awesome!

[Alex]

He's the hero we deserve, just not the one we need right now.

 

If Batman were into baseball he'd be....Bill James...

[fairweather]

LEN III posted something recently, saying he was surprised that Correia has been able to get through 7 innings a start considering he is not a strikeout pitcher. This reflects a misconception: Strikeout guys struggle to complete more than six innings because Ks require more pitches than the quick outs a sinkerballer can get, when he's on his game.

 

This points up the reason the Twins prefer contact pitchers. In a word, innings. The two biggest strikeout pitchers in Twins history--Blyleven and Santana--tended to hit 100 pitches after six innings. Bert pitched before pitch counts and was an absolute horse. But Santana lived within pitch counts, and only rarely pitched into the eighth inning. Six innings was common for him. And he is exceptional in his own right. His combination of high Ks and low walks is almost unheard of in the game.

 

Guys who have strikeout stuff but don't have Santana's control struggle to get through five innings, especially when they are developing. Because everyone wants strikeout pitchers, they are really expensive. Strikeouts are like home runs, they're expensive. So you can only really afford to have K pitchers when they are developing. Getting more than five innings out of a developing K pitcher is rare.

 

If you have more than a couple of guys in your rotation who only give you five innings on a regular basis, and then you have a short start every other time through the rotation or so, you need 13 pitchers. That is a huge cost for the love of strikeouts.

 

The Twins prefer to have guys who get quick outs and have a chance to get you into the eighth inning regularly. Then you bring in the strikeout guys to shut the door. Good contact pitchers are also rare, which is why we end up with the likes of Blackburn and Correia. But it makes sense to me to develop better contact pitchers. Not to abandon the philosophy of contact pitchers.

 

I hope Gibson is the kind of contact pitcher we need. We could have the luxury of a strikeout pitcher with good control in Meyer for a while. And if he turns out to be that guy, we should find a way to keep him long term. May looks more like the prototypical strikeout pitcher, one who will pitch five innings with six Ks and four BBs.

 

Yes but Texas operates on a 120 pitch count. IMO that should be the number for a "strikeout pitcher" who is on a roll.

[cmathewson]

Yes but Texas operates on a 120 pitch count. IMO that should be the number for a "strikeout pitcher" who is on a roll.

 

For what it's worth (and I realize my opinions are not worth much around here) I think rigid pitch counts are ridiculous. Some guys can throw 120 pitches without much harm. Other guys need to stay between 100 and 110 to reduce risk of injury. But I think the Twins' reliance on pitch to contact is so intertwined with pitch counts, it's almost impossible to separate them. I get that they want to protect their most precious commodity. But there comes a point when it is counter-productive to winning.

[snepp]

I think rigid pitch counts are ridiculous.

 

Agree 111%.

[Oxtung]

For what it's worth (and I realize my opinions are not worth much around here) I think rigid pitch counts are ridiculous. Some guys can throw 120 pitches without much harm. Other guys need to stay between 100 and 110 to reduce risk of injury. But I think the Twins' reliance on pitch to contact is so intertwined with pitch counts, it's almost impossible to separate them. I get that they want to protect their most precious commodity. But there comes a point when it is counter-productive to winning.

 

I don't think anyone would disagree with the idea that some pitchers can throw more pitches per start than other pitchers without having harmful lasting effects. Some pitjchers can throw 98mph and some can only through 88mph. It stands to reason there differences in a pitchers stamina too. However, the only way to know which pitchers can throw 120 pitches per outing is to let all of them go out there and try. Then the ones that don't end up ruining their arms or going on the dl or losing 5mph are the ones you can trust to go the extra innings. How many arms are worth ruining to figure out who can go the extra inning in a ball game?

[cmathewson]

I don't think anyone would disagree with the idea that some pitchers can throw more pitches per start than other pitchers without having harmful lasting effects. Some pitjchers can throw 98mph and some can only through 88mph. It stands to reason there differences in a pitchers stamina too. However, the only way to know which pitchers can throw 120 pitches per outing is to let all of them go out there and try. Then the ones that don't end up ruining their arms or going on the dl or losing 5mph are the ones you can trust to go the extra innings. How many arms are worth ruining to figure out who can go the extra inning in a ball game?

 

I guess the Rangers will find out.

[jokin]

Yes but Texas operates on a 120 pitch count. IMO that should be the number for a "strikeout pitcher" who is on a roll.

 

Otherwise known as the "Nolan Ryan Rule"...

[Shane Wahl]

Yeah, Santana is probably not a good example as he's one of the most efficient strikeout pitchers on the planet.

 

It's sad that your "he's" is "he was" and not "he is."

[Shane Wahl]

About this thread: Damn . . .

 

Well I will contribute to this conversation by offering up the claim that the Twins should trade for Justin Verlander.

[LaBombo]

Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see any mention in the thread that an undeniable cost of 'pitch to contact' is its greater dependence on defense.

 

When you raise the overall organizational bar on what's acceptable defensive ability for a position compared to what less defense-dependent franchises will live with, your odds of ending up with less offense from a given position increase.

[snepp]

Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see any mention in the thread that an undeniable cost of 'pitch to contact' is its greater dependence on defense.

 

When you raise the overall organizational bar on what's acceptable defensive ability for a position compared to what less defense-dependent franchises will live with, your odds of ending up with less offense from a given position increase.

 

I have no idea what you just said, but it sounds really smart, so I'm forced to agree.