Buxtons hot start

[kab21]

The problem with taking a HS catcher at the top of the first rd is that you better be absolutely sure that they are for real. Draft picks bust all the time but HS catchers have an awful success rate.

[Badsmerf]

I would be OK with signing a catcher first if they think the kid is the real deal. I know the bust rate is pretty high but that doesn't mean a guy can't make it. Plus, Mauer is going to move from C at some point. The next pick would then be crucial to get a pitcher.

[Mike Sixel]

Pretty high? It is pretty much infinite on HS cathers, isn't it?

[beckmt]

I am in the BPA camp, but would prefer a pitcher if very close. The Anderson argument is interesting as he seems to be pitching his way up the list. My way of looking at it is this, if it is very close and a pitcher is not #1, still take the pitcher. If it is clear in the scouts mind take the BPA.

[ashbury]

A top notch High school catcher would take longer to develop but would be ready in 5-6 year around the time Mauer is a free agent or at least is ready to move to 1st base for most of the time.

 

Or, if you accidentally develop a high-end catcher too quickly, he's still of value and you can always swap him for a Proven Closer.

[fairweather]

We all want the Twins to draft the next Kershaw or Strasburg but you always have to take the best guy available when you draft. Especially when you're drafting top 5. You don't want to blow these kinds of opportunities to add special talent to the organization.

[kab21]

I would be OK with signing a catcher first if they think the kid is the real deal. I know the bust rate is pretty high but that doesn't mean a guy can't make it. Plus, Mauer is going to move from C at some point. The next pick would then be crucial to get a pitcher.

 

The encouraging thing is that there are a few that think Denney's bat is on par or better than Meadows/Frazier. There was even some discussion of Wil Myers at one point. If this is true then I could support the pick.

[nicksaviking]

Pretty high? It is pretty much infinite on HS cathers, isn't it?

 

Yes considering Hank Conger is the best HS catcher drafted since Mauer. I'd be furious. There is too much to learn defensively and calling a game the offense seems to take a back seat.

[maxisagod]

Well at least that stop us from chasing our tails over the Best Player Available vs Best Pitcher Available debate for a half a day. So if by Draft day the top 3 consensus players are Gray, Appel, and Denney. Followed by a second tier of hitters like Meadows, Bryant, and Frazier. Followed by a 3rd tier of pitchers led by Manaea; If Denney is the highest rated player on the board, do you take him knowing the reward is high, but like Myers, his bat will play anywhere if C doesn't work out or do you essentially trade down, by offering a below slot deal to someone else and hoping there is exceptional value in the later rounds that you can buy away?

[Shane Wahl]

Again, if Sean Manaea is there at 4, they have to pick him. He has done nothing this season to discourage that. A lefty in this system is a major need.

 

To those talking about drafting HS catchers . . . really? Those don't pan out much and we would basically be talking about the end of the Mauer era before that catcher is even ready.

[kab21]

Again, if Sean Manaea is there at 4, they have to pick him. He has done nothing this season to discourage that. A lefty in this system is a major need.

 

To those talking about drafting HS catchers . . . really? Those don't pan out much and we would basically be talking about the end of the Mauer era before that catcher is even ready.

 

The problem is that Manaea has done nothing to address the big knocks against him going into the college season. He has two inconsistent secondary pitches that could make him a RP'er. He remains in the discussion at #4 but I don't think he's the BPA or 2nd or 3rd.

 

I would have to review all of the catching busts but my recent recollection is that none of them were close to being considered the best prep bat in the draft. If that were true then he's definitely in the discussion at #4 but I'm very scared of picking a HS catcher. I will give the FO the benefit of the doubt though.

[edavis0308]

I directly went to page 4 to read through and I had to do a double take that this was a Buxton's Hot Start thread. Haha.

[Badsmerf]

To those talking about drafting HS catchers . . . really? Those don't pan out much and we would basically be talking about the end of the Mauer era before that catcher is even ready.

 

Joe is 30 this year. A HS catcher will be 18. Could he be ready in 4 years? Maybe. That would put Joe at 34, and his skills as a C would have deteriorated pretty drastically by then. I don't think the Twins should really worry about Joe staying at C once he gets into his mid-30's. Plus, how about bringing a rookie catcher up only to have a HOFer, one of the best ever, to ask questions to.

[cmb0252]

From Jim Casllis' April 10th chat regarding Buxton.

While the Twins are noted for moving their prospects along slowly, do you believe Buxton could merit a bump to Ft. Myers sometime this season if he continues on his current pace?

Jim Callis: As much as I like Buxton, I’ll take the under when it comes to maintaining a 1.515 OPS. Even if he tears up the Midwest League, I still think the Twins will keep him there for all or most of the season.

 

Clearly the minor league season just started, no reason to overreact to small sample size, but is there a chance Buxton has a better hit tool than expected?

Jim Callis: No. As you mention, small sample size, but I think most clubs evaluated him as a plus hitter and some gave him double-plus grades.

 

I know you can't just much off of a handful of games- but WOW, Byron Buxton, man. As a Twins fan I'm thanking HOU for passing on him. This dudes ceiling seems limitless. With his overall game, do you see him surpassing Sano as #1 Twins prospect? Still look like a Mike Trout comparison?

Jim Callis: I ranked him ahead of Sano on my personal list coming into the year (though Sano was close behind him on my Top 50). He might have the best package of tools and aptitude in the minors.

 

 

 

 

[cmb0252]

Oh and regarding drafting high school catchers and success rate law answered a question about it today.

Jumped into the chat late...why do you think HS catchers have has such a failure rate as high draft picks?

[h=6]Klaw

[/h]

That's a $2 million question. Are their bodies too worn out by the time they get into pro ball? Do we obsess too much over catching/throwing skill and not enough over the bat? The last drafted HS catcher to amass over 3 WAR as a big league catcher was Brian McCann in 2002. That's a pretty big sample.

[ashbury]

I directly went to page 4 to read through and I had to do a double take that this was a Buxton's Hot Start thread. Haha.

 

Kind of like the conversations you may have at a ballpark. I like this style. YMMV.

[Monkeypaws]

Put me in the "draft the best player regardless of position" camp. Even if it's an outfielder. If we should have learned anything from the Span and Revere trades, it's that Ryan is not afraid to trade good players in positions of depth for help at positions of need. Frankly, with the washout rate for pitchers being seemingly so high, I'm not so sure taking position players with lower injury risks and then flipping a couple of them for good pitchers who have at least survived to reach AA successfully might not be the best strategy, anyway.

 

Couldn't have said it better myself

[Badsmerf]

Oh and regarding drafting high school catchers and success rate law answered a question about it today.

Jumped into the chat late...why do you think HS catchers have has such a failure rate as high draft picks?

Klaw

 

 

That's a $2 million question. Are their bodies too worn out by the time they get into pro ball? Do we obsess too much over catching/throwing skill and not enough over the bat? The last drafted HS catcher to amass over 3 WAR as a big league catcher was Brian McCann in 2002. That's a pretty big sample.

There are guys like Zunino coming up that will break this.

[Thrylos]

Seems like there should be a thread on this, seeing as everyone is talking about it. 20 AB, hitting .500 with a double, triple & 2 home runs. My initial thoughts.....

 

1) I'll be really interested to see how this year develops. Could we be crabbing about him ONLY being at Low A as a 19 yo?

 

2) For those looking ahead to the June drft, and hoping the Twins get a pitcher even if there is a higher-upside toolsy high school outfielder avilable - does this give you any pause?

 

1) I think that he will move fast because there are just not too many good CFs in the Twins' system right now (same with Polanco btw as far as SSs are concerned)

 

2) Things might change from now till the summer as far as the draft goes, but at this point, it looks like it might be a high school catcher who might have the highest upside among position players and the Twins would be nuts to pass on that, if he falls in their lap

[kab21]

There are guys like Zunino coming up that will break this.

 

Except he went to college...

 

edit - D'Arnaud and Mesoraco were HS catchers though.

[kab21]

I'm not sure Denney is really comparable to a majority of HS catchers that have been drafted in the last decade though. There have been very few picked in the top 15 and I'm guessing very few had a bat that was considered to among the best in the draft class.

 

All of the top 15 HS catching picks since 2001

2008 - Skipworth - #6 - really good bat that didn't develop

2008 - Mesoraco - #15 - not a premier talent but has developed into a solid catcher soon to be in a starting job

2005 - Snyder - #13 - made the majors briefly as a 1Bman

2004 - Walker - #11 - solid starter at 2B

2001 - Mauer - sort of good

[Badsmerf]

Except he went to college...

 

edit - D'Arnaud and Mesoraco were HS catchers though.

Ahh, damnit I knew that. I looked at it wrong. The first time he was drafted was 29th by Oakland, but he didn't sign.

[nicksaviking]

Except he went to college...

 

edit - D'Arnaud and Mesoraco were HS catchers though.

 

College catchers seem to have a rather high success rate. I'm not retracting my displeasure about drafting a HS catcher until I see D'Arnaud and Mesoraco perform and perform well.

 

Mesoraco has had three years to take the starting gig in Cincinatti and he has yet to do so. He can't even beat out Ryan Hanigan. Looking like a bust at this point.

 

I think D'Arnaud will succeed but it's no sure thing, he's already 24, after seven seasons in pro baseball, you're kind of expected to be where he's at. Also, if John Buck keeps hitting, D'Arnaud is going to be a 25-year-old rookie next year.

[kab21]

College catchers seem to have a rather high success rate. I'm not retracting my displeasure about drafting a HS catcher until I see D'Arnaud and Mesoraco perform and perform well.

 

where is your proof that HS catchers drafted high don't work out? there have only been 4 drafted in the top 15 since Mauer was drafted a decade ago. And other than Skipworth none of them had one of the best bats in their draft classes.

 

In addition to that I don't draft Denney because he's a catcher. I draft Denney because he has one of the best bats in the draft class. It's a bonus that he's a catcher.

[Mike Sixel]

heck, how do HS catchers drafted low work out lately? KLAW and others that know more about this than us are worried about drafting HS catchers. Now, if you want to argue someone is a great, great hitting prospect and his position just happens to be catcher now, that's a different conversation we can have.

[kab21]

heck, how do HS catchers drafted low work out lately? KLAW and others that know more about this than us are worried about drafting HS catchers. Now, if you want to argue someone is a great, great hitting prospect and his position just happens to be catcher now, that's a different conversation we can have.

 

It wouldn't be the first time that smart people bought into a myth. There just haven't been many drafted high.

 

I actually don't have Denney on my list of BPA's at #4 but there seems to be an argument for him and things could change in the next couple of months.

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe they aren't drafted high because the industry knows they don't usually work out at catcher, but you are right, it could be an industry mistake. those do happen.

[cmb0252]

I have Denny ranked 7 on my personal top 10 list for the draft. The fact his bat will play almost any where takes some pressure off his catching status.

[kab21]

I have Denny ranked 7 on my personal top 10 list for the draft. The fact his bat will play almost any where takes some pressure off his catching status.

 

He's just in that next tier of players for me so #7 sounds about right.

 

Appel

Gray

 

Meadows

Bryant - for some unknown reason I always type out Humphries for him (former UM bballer?)

Frazier

 

Manaea - is the top of the tier but the others aren't really ranked

Denney

Stewart/Ball - For those yammering on and on about getting an ace then these two HS'ers are the ones to look at although they come with more risk

Shipley

Anderson

[cmb0252]

He's just in that next tier of players for me so #7 sounds about right.

 

Appel

Gray

 

Meadows

Bryant - for some unknown reason I always type out Humphries for him (former UM bballer?)

Frazier

 

Manaea - is the top of the tier but the others aren't really ranked

Denney

Stewart/Ball - For those yammering on and on about getting an ace then these two HS'ers are the ones to look at although they come with more risk

Shipley

Anderson

 

I have stewart ahead of manaea and Denny but other than that we have the exact same list. Well, I also have Stewart, manaea, and Denny in a different tier from the rest of those arms. The twins are the n a really interesting spot at 4 and I can't wait till the draft.