Potential Trade Packages for José Berríos

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, spycake said:

Gray had 2.5 years of control when traded, and Quintana had 2.5 plus a team option for 3.5. Berrios is already down to 1.5.

The value in Gray and Quintana were not in the length of contract. The Cubs were coming off a WS win and desperate to contend in the window. Pineda went down and the Yankees needed another starter. Supply and desperation determine the price paid, not the contract. 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

The value in Gray and Quintana were not in the length of contract. The Cubs were coming off a WS win and desperate to contend in the window. Pineda went down and the Yankees needed another starter. Supply and desperation determine the price paid, not the contract. 

Contract length always influences the cost to trade for the player.  Players like Gray and Quintana have significant value beyond the current year.  That benefit might be in the form of continuing to aid a contending team or the form of trading them if the team suddenly is no longer a contender.  This is hardly a new concept.  Value in this form is discussed frequently during the off-season and trade deadline on a myriad of baseball shows.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Contract length always influences the cost to trade for the player.  Players like Gray and Quintana have significant value beyond the current year.  That benefit might be in the form of continuing to aid a contending team or the form of trading them if the team suddenly is no longer a contender.  This is hardly a new concept.  Value in this form is discussed frequently during the off-season and trade deadline on a myriad of baseball shows.

If Pineda is not hurt the Yankees do not make the trade.. Severino and Montgomery were young and upcoming, Tanaka and And Sabathia had longer contracts. With a healthy Pineda there is no need for Gray. He was dumped for peanuts

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

If Pineda is not hurt the Yankees do not make the trade.. Severino and Montgomery were young and upcoming, Tanaka and And Sabathia had longer contracts. With a healthy Pineda there is no need for Gray. He was dumped for peanuts

 

Do you suppose Gray did not bring much back because he was quite bad in 2018 (4.9 ERA)?  Also, you are arguing value based on the fact they needed a SP.  SO do most teams.  How does that change the value of a player who profiled as Gray did at the time.  Service time matters to value.  Gray and Quintana would not have brought back nearly as much as they did had they been rentals.  How much better are Whitesox as a result of trading Quintana and getting Cease and Jemenez?  Good SP s can bring a good haul which is why we have to listen to trade proposals for Berrios.

[old nurse]

On 6/1/2021 at 3:04 PM, Major League Ready said:

 

Do you suppose Gray did not bring much back because he was quite bad in 2018 (4.9 ERA)?  Also, you are arguing value based on the fact they needed a SP.  SO do most teams.  How does that change the value of a player who profiled as Gray did at the time.  Service time matters to value.  Gray and Quintana would not have brought back nearly as much as they did had they been rentals.  How much better are Whitesox as a result of trading Quintana and getting Cease and Jemenez?  Good SP s can bring a good haul which is why we have to listen to trade proposals for Berrios.

I an stating that a contending team will overpay for the shot to win, Somewhere way back in this piece somebody mentioned Berrios for a top 100 prospect is what could happen by a trade calculator. The calculator is wrong. That was the point.

Sonny Gray in New York did his best imitation of Josh Becket in Boston. Becket had done his best imitation of Carl Pavano in New York. Pavano was not the first player who went to the big two cities and fell flat.. 

 

[Dodecahedron]

On 6/1/2021 at 7:08 AM, old nurse said:

The value in Gray and Quintana were not in the length of contract. The Cubs were coming off a WS win and desperate to contend in the window. Pineda went down and the Yankees needed another starter. Supply and desperation determine the price paid, not the contract. 

Sonny Gray was also not traded at the trade deadline, he was traded in the offseason.  Unless of course we are talking about Gray's trade TO the Yankees, in which case note that the Yankees then turned around and traded him to someone else.

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Sonny Gray was also not traded at the trade deadline, he was traded in the offseason.  Unless of course we are talking about Gray's trade TO the Yankees, in which case note that the Yankees then turned around and traded him to someone else.

I thought it was clear that it was to the Yankees. I will type out the long version next time to remove doubt

[Dodecahedron]

17 hours ago, old nurse said:

I thought it was clear that it was to the Yankees. I will type out the long version next time to remove doubt

Gotcha.  Part of the narrative for Berrios is the years of control.  The Yankees used that to trade Gray a second time.  Did the Yankees get the better deal?  An equivalent deal?

[Otto von Ballpark]

16 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Gotcha.  Part of the narrative for Berrios is the years of control.  The Yankees used that to trade Gray a second time.  Did the Yankees get the better deal?  An equivalent deal?

Yankees gave up 3 decent prospects to Oakland to get Gray in 2017 -- all 3 were ranked in top 100 overall lists either before or after the 2017 season. Two have moved on to other orgs already but Kaprielian is in Oakland's rotation now.

Yankees got some value back in the Gray trade to Cincinnati too -- primarily the #38 overall pick in the 2019 draft.

[TNTwinsFan]

Came across a report today mentioning that Cards and Twins are engaging in trade talks…what kind of a package would we want to see?!

[Vanimal46]

If you’re brave enough to scroll through the comments you’ll see how Berrios is viewed from the Mets’ fan base. Shocking I know, every fan values their own prospects like gold. 

[SteelDodo]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

If you’re brave enough to scroll through the comments you’ll see how Berrios is viewed from the Mets’ fan base. Shocking I know, every fan values their own prospects like gold. 

Interesting. After a quick, 5 minute reading over the three prospects, I think I'd do that trade. Mauricio is listed at 51 on MLBs top 100 prospects, and Ginn looks like he would become our third best pitching prospect after Duran/Balazovic. It also wouldn't surprise me at all if he becomes a top 100 prospect at some point too. 

For a year and a half of Berrios, I would be happy with a haul of two minor leaguers who would instantly go in our top 5 prospects, and a third who would likely be in our top 15.

[laloesch]

sounds like the Twins have already made multiple offers to extend him and he's turned them all down.  Time to trade i guess.

[Major League Ready]

The Mets would be a better trade partner unless St. Louis was willing to give up Liberatore.  I doubt they would.  He seems to be close to major league ready.  A prospect like him would make me feel quite good about are chances to rebuild/retool and get into serious contention soon.  

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The Mets would be a better trade partner unless St. Louis was willing to give up Liberatore.  I doubt they would.  He seems to be close to major league ready.  A prospect like him would make me feel quite good about are chances to rebuild/retool and get into serious contention soon.  

It would seem odd, though, IMO, to trade a near ready pitcher for one. That said, Berrios is proven....and has 1.5 years left.....so maybe? 

I've scoured the prospect lists, finding a good trading partner with AA / AAA starting pitching is HARD.

[jorgenswest]

One from a Fangraphs chat…

Nate Pearson for Berrios.

The Blue Jays get 2 shots at a postseason with Berrios plus a comp pick if he leaves (depending on future union agreement). Twins get 6 years of one of the better pitching prospects taking the risk that he follows the Alex Meyer path.