Kepler as a CF back up?

[Doctor Gast]

I`d like help from my TD friends. My impression of Kepler as a CF back up, is that his offensive production takes a drop. I have no stats to back that up so if I`m wrong, I`d like to know so I`d be ok w/ this when it occurs or if I`m right, we need to seek a better solution. Kepler, defensively at CF is ok but does his offensive production take a drop or not? & if so, by how much? If some one could be so kind to shed light on this?  I`d appreciate it. Thanks

[TopGunn#22]

Good question.  And a relevant one as well with Buxton's continual injuries.  I've heard it "speculated" just as you put it, that Kepler's offense suffers.  Yet I can't remember reading or hearing the evidence that this is actually TRUE.  

[ashbury]

Baseball-reference.com has this type of "split" for viewing. Here is the split for 2019:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=keplema01&year=2019&t=b#all_defp

You'll see there that there was a slight dip in offense, .791 OPS in 242 PA as a CF, versus .885 in 296 PA as a RF. But the split went the other way the season prior to that, .767 versus .711 respectively.

 

I skipped 2020 because he registered only 7 PA while playing CF. Cave was the primary CF backup this year. Kepler had 0 hits in those 7 PA, but that's much too small a sample size for me to draw any conclusions from.

 

When you slice and dice statistics you will see some disparities just by the luck of the draw, so I wouldn't say I see much of a trend to Kepler's time in CF versus RF.

[Doctor Gast]

 

Baseball-reference.com has this type of "split" for viewing. Here is the split for 2019:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=keplema01&year=2019&t=b#all_defp

You'll see there that there was a slight dip in offense, .791 OPS in 242 PA as a CF, versus .885 in 296 PA as a RF. But the split went the other way the season prior to that, .767 versus .711 respectively.

 

I skipped 2020 because he registered only 7 PA while playing CF. Cave was the primary CF backup this year. Kepler had 0 hits in those 7 PA, but that's much too small a sample size for me to draw any conclusions from.

 

When you slice and dice statistics you will see some disparities just by the luck of the draw, so I wouldn't say I see much of a trend to Kepler's time in CF versus RF.

Thank you! I too did some more looking. I didn`t find any stats but I found an interview w/ Kepler saying that he enjoyed playing CF & said it was easy for him to play there. I believe those aspects would translate into productive ABs

[Nine of twelve]

This goes to the larger issue of who the Twins' outfielders should be. In this day and age a major league roster should have four outfielders plus at least one utility player capable of playing a corner as needed. There should be two LH batters and two RH batters or the equivalent in switch hitters. At least two should be capable of playing CF.

 

Buxton is a natural born center fielder. He is who John Fogerty wrote about.

 

Kepler can play there. So can Cave, and even Rosario in a pinch. So it's more about balancing the roster by adding a good right-handed-hitting outfielder. It's a bonus if he can play center. 

[Doctor Gast]

Hopefully Buck will stay healthy even so it`d be nice to have a LH bat to give Buck a rest if a RHP comes up that Buck might have trouble hitting.

[DocBauer]

So ONE TIME I figured out how to multi-quote and now I don't remember how to do it again. Otherwise I would have done it here. Sue me! Lol!

 

Kepler is FINE as a back up CF option. And please don't ask me for links as I'm going off memory that is usually good. I believe it was here on TD last off-season where someone looked at Kepler's numbers as the primary CF. The numbers weren't bad, but they seemed to slide as the season wore on, as I recall. It seemed he "wore out" playing CF daily. Now, maybe that was a slump of sorts, or maybe it was losing lis legs over time.

 

IMPO, Kepler was kept in RF last season because of defense and to save his legs for offense. He was also kept there because, whether you like him or not, Cave showed great defensive improvement in CF. I was able to watch the majority of the games played last year, or at least parts of them, and I saw better tracking skills and no absurd dives or slides that I saw in 2019. Just better defense overall. That's why Kepler was seldom placed in CF.

 

The ideal situation would be Celestino earning a 4th/5th OF spot in the next year or so to take care of the CF situation behind Byron. Of course...as always...a little bit better luck along with Byron learning to take better care of his body...which I think he did last season...changes the complexion.

[Shaitan]

I think an important distinction is what type of backup? One that plays every day for a month, or every day for 10 days during a brief IL stint?

 

FWIW, the Twins seem to view Kepler as the latter. I'm not sure I have an option either way. 

[Physics Guy]

 

Hopefully Buck will stay healthy even so it`d be nice to have a LH bat to give Buck a rest if a RHP comes up that Buck might have trouble hitting.

Kepler is that backup.  I suspect Kirilloff takes over for Rosario, but that doesn't take care of a RH bat in the OF.  Rooker would be OK there occasionally, but I suspect he gets more time at 1B or DH. 

[IndianaTwin]

 

I think an important distinction is what type of backup? One that plays every day for a month, or every day for 10 days during a brief IL stint?

 

FWIW, the Twins seem to view Kepler as the latter. I'm not sure I have an option either way. 

 

Concur, I think, but slightly nuanced.

 

If it's the occasional day off, I think it's better to give the Cave-type backup the spot in center and keep the regular in the two corner spots. If it's a longer stint, move Kepler to CF if he's better there than the new regular (i.e. Kirilloff or Rooker) is. 

[rv78]

 

Hopefully Buck will stay healthy even so it`d be nice to have a LH bat to give Buck a rest if a RHP comes up that Buck might have trouble hitting.

 

So far Buck hasn't proven he can hit any kind of pitching with any consistancy so maybe a fulltime LH bat to replace him permanently would work too. Between Buck and Sano I don't know which one has bigger head problems. They find their stroke and then, faster than a lightning strike, they lose it again. 

[Dodecahedron]

If any team, much less the Twins, had a comparable backup for someone like Buxton, they would probably start him instead of Buxton.

 

The Twins backup options are about what I would expect, and when Buxton is on the IL, another player is called up from the minors.