Joe Saunders

[nicksaviking]

Is that realistic? Said another way, if we simplistically bucket pitchers into "power" vs. "contact" are there enough in the first bucket to legitimately expect to not have more than one from the second bucket in your rotation?

 

Given the tone that often gets missed, I should add the disclaimer that it's an honest question, and I don't know (or even think I know) the answer. Essentially, what % of pitchers can be considered "power" as opposed to "contact." And obviously there is a ton of gray in between, and maybe this is off-topic (and interesting?) enough of a question that it should be taken into a different thread.

 

Not only is it realistic, it's nearly manditory. The consistant playoff contenders regularly field a rotation with 4 guys with a 7.0 K/9+.

 

The Twins obviously were worst in the league last year with a K/9 of 5.90, .88 worse than the 29th team, the Indians. The Twins have thus far replaced Liriano with Correia, while the Indians replaced Derek Lowe with Trevor Bauer. If teams like the Indians improve just slightly to 7.00-7.10, while the Twins regress to the 5.50-5.60 range, it would be very possible the 29th worst team in this department would actually be closer to the best team in the league than they would be to the Twins.

 

Unacceptable, this isn't 1980's baseball and Terry Ryan needs to understand making sure the ball reaches the catchers mitt is the best way to prevent runs.

 

Don't take these statements out of context, Saunders is an upgrade to most of the dreck in the Twins rotation, but this clubs evaluation of pitching needs to change, I'd prefer it change now.

[nicksaviking]

That's a pretty consistant lack of bad luck he's had, I guess that makes him pretty damn lucky or maybe pretty good.

 

He's yet to meet the Twins infield defense.

[twinsnorth49]

He's yet to meet the Twins infield defense.

 

I'll concede that one.

[ThePuck]

Not only is it realistic, it's nearly manditory. The consistant playoff contenders regularly field a rotation with 4 guys with a 7.0 K/9+.

 

The Twins obviously were worst in the league last year with a K/9 of 5.90, .88 worse than the 29th team, the Indians. The Twins have thus far replaced Liriano with Correia, while the Indians replaced Derek Lowe with Trevor Bauer. If teams like the Indians improve just slightly to 7.00-7.10, while the Twins regress to the 5.50-5.60 range, it would be very possible the 29th worst team in this department would actually be closer to the best team in the league than they would be to the Twins.

 

Unacceptable, this isn't 1980's baseball and Terry Ryan needs to understand making sure the ball reaches the catchers mitt is the best way to prevent runs.

 

Twins were dead last (30th) in Ks last year. The next team up (29th) had 143 more than we did. The difference between 29th and 14th was less than 143. Better have defense behind these guys, cause our best K pitcher (not best pitcher) had over a K per IP and he's gone. Our defense has gotten worse this offseason, which is hard to do.

[COtwin]

I like that he is left handed, and thats about it. I look at the numbers and I see a more expensive Correia. Worse opp OBP, worse opp OPS, little better ERA, worse WHIP. If we think he could be trade bait, great. I love signing guys that can bring talent back in a trade. Correia probably not, more likely a Blackburn situation. I used to like the idea of Saunders, until I looked a little deeper. What am I missing?

[nicksaviking]

Twins were dead last (30th) in Ks last year. The next team up (29th) had 143 more than we did. The difference between 29th and 14th was less than 143. Better have defense behind these guys, cause our best K pitcher (not best pitcher) had over a K per IP and he's gone. Our defense has gotten worse this offseason, which is hard to do.

 

And other teams strikeout numbers are likely on the rise as evidenced by the fact that nearly all of the leftover free agents, including higher profile guys like Lohse and Saunders, are low K guys. Other teams aren't chasing these kind of pitchers, and certainly not willing to over pay for them any longer for a reason.

 

Again, I realized Saunders is a decent pitcher, I just don't like my favorite team continuing on this antiquated pitching approach.

[Nick Nelson]

I like that he is left handed, and thats about it. I look at the numbers and I see a more expensive Correia. Worse opp OBP, worse opp OPS, little better ERA, worse WHIP. If we think he could be trade bait, great. I love signing guys that can bring talent back in a trade. Correia probably not, more likely a Blackburn situation. I used to like the idea of Saunders, until I looked a little deeper. What am I missing?

 

Lengthy track record of durability. Recent success (3.86 ERA over last two years). Has succeeded in the AL. Has pitched in big games.

 

Saunders is nothing special, but he'd justifiably be their Opening Day starter and would provide some much-needed stability to the rotation. In that sense he'd be a nice add.

[ThePuck]

I like that he is left handed, and thats about it. I look at the numbers and I see a more expensive Correia. Worse opp OBP, worse opp OPS, little better ERA, worse WHIP. If we think he could be trade bait, great. I love signing guys that can bring talent back in a trade. Correia probably not, more likely a Blackburn situation. I used to like the idea of Saunders, until I looked a little deeper. What am I missing?

 

Their ERA+s the last 3, 4 years aren't even close...Correia hasn't had a ERA+ over 88 in the last three years. Saunders has never had a full season where he had an ERA+ as low as 91. Correia hasn't posted an ERA+ over 97 in the last 5 seasons and while he did 6 seasons ago, he only had 8 starts that year. Saunders has posted an ERA+ over 100 the last two season.

[COtwin]

I saw someone earlier say 2.5 WAR. ??? I see 0.6 which is much less attractive. I have a feeling that we are being lulled to sleep. Nick the fact that he would be our opening day starter should make all of us depressed, at least it does me. Seems like he is a reliable, durable 3-5, that would probably make a playoff rotation.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm on board with Saunders for 2 years... but again, pick a number you're comfortable with... $20 million? 25 million? And stick to it. If he gets that third year, or he gets more than the per-year value, then don't.

[ThePuck]

I saw someone earlier say 2.5 WAR. ??? I see 0.6 which is much less attractive.

 

Fangraphs has him at 2.5

[edavis0308]

Fangraphs has him at 2.5

 

I said it.

 

Joe Saunders » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

[ashbury]

For anyone who has too much time on their hands for their own good, back in November, I laid out my rationale for why the Twins shouldn't let overpaying, in terms of years on a contract, stop them from going after pitching. You can read it by clicking here.

 

I enjoyed re-reading your analysis. It does point up the tremendous flexibility the Twins should have in 2015 and for a while after that. What is missing from the analysis, I think, is the "value of information". We know (or believe) certain things today. In the off-season a year from now, we will know some things we don't know now - for example a few players we are sorry we didn't sign, and also a few that already look bad (with 2 years to go if you had signed them to a 3-year contract), as well as a year's hindsight on the players you did sign. Two off-seasons from now, even greater amounts of information of this type will be available. Two flavors of regret, and two of gladness, will have definite and estimate-able financial measures.

 

We have to keep in mind also that this isn't the last train that will leave the station. Next off-season, a new crop of free agents will be available, and again the year before season 2015. Say there is about $50M of flexibility in that year's budget, as you surmise. Do you pull the trigger now and commit part of that, or do you wait until another year and sign some pitchers, and repeat the process a year later?

 

Factor into that, that revenues for every team are due to go up. This will result in a bidding-up of salaries in future off-seasons. So a $11M contract for a Joe Saunders in 2015 might indeed look like a bargain, if he is still delivering results like the past few years. You have to weigh that against the risk of his not delivering much in the way of results.

 

So, it's complex and there are counter-weighing effects. But I still think that there's a lot to be said for taking on *no* particular risk for 2015, at this time, and focus really hard on 1- and 2-year contracts *this* offseason to help bridge to that date. The risk that you take on, measured in terms of steps you no longer might be able to take in 2015, outweighs the benefit of making 2013 a better season. I think the calculation changes dramatically next off-season, and you can take on risk in future years with greater hope that it won't bring you regret and narrowed options in 2015. And then in the off-season following that, I'm all for loading up with some really prime free-agent talent that requires you to add significant risk to 2017 and a little beyond, in exchange for a real chance of serious contention (for meaningful October games, not just September) in 2015.

 

And that's how I've viewing every move Terry Ryan has made this off-season. So far, his focus on 2015 has been laser-like; I'm just not satisfied with the 2013 stopgap measures he's come up with.

[howeda7]

I'd do it at this point, even for 3 years. Money is no issue. We are barely at $80 million and 2014 payroll is of almost no concern given Morneau coming off the books, etc. The only reason to protest this over money is if you are a Pohlad heir. Money not spent on Saunders (or anyone else) is simply not going to be spent in future years/on the draft at this point. They are so far under their 'cap' that it's simply going to be pocketed.

 

As for 'blocking' anyone, when is the last time that was truly an issue? If the younger guys are ready, Corriea will be swiftly shown the bullpen door or released long before Saunders.

[Jim Crikket]

I'm on board with Saunders for 2 years... but again, pick a number you're comfortable with... $20 million? 25 million? And stick to it. If he gets that third year, or he gets more than the per-year value, then don't.

 

If you're comfortable with 20-25 million, does it matter to you if he gets it over 3 years instead of 2? You're Offseason GM Handbook projected 3 years $24 million I think. Most of the other better SPs ended up signing for more than what you guys projected. Saunders has not been as coveted, obviously. But if the Twins can get him for a $20-24 million commitment... whether 3 years, 2 years with an option, or whatever... I don't see the downside.

 

Would I have liked to get one of the hard throwing top of the rotation FAs? Absolutely. Am I disappointed TR didn't make a serious effort to get one of those guys? Yes. Would that stop me from wanting Saunders at this point? Nope.

 

I'm on record saying I believe the Twins need to do SOMETHING to prove to fans that they are serious about trying to put a better product on the field in 2013 and I would consider signing Saunders to fit that criteria.

 

Then again, all we've heard is that they're talking to Saunders and/or his agent. We've heard that about a lot of guys, so this is possibly a lot of discussion over nothing.

[nicksaviking]

We have to keep in mind also that this isn't the last train that will leave the station. Next off-season, a new crop of free agents will be available, and again the year before season 2015. Say there is about $50M of flexibility in that year's budget, as you surmise. Do you pull the trigger now and commit part of that, or do you wait until another year and sign some pitchers, and repeat the process a year later?

 

I would like to think this would be factored into the decisions, but next year's free agent pitchers do not appear very strong at all. Josh Johnson and Adam Wainwright headline the class but there's a good chance they'll resign with their clubs. Matt Garza could end up being the best of the rest followed by some very questionable or very old arms. This year seemed to have a lot more depth. While I hope I'm wrong, I truely doubt the Twins will ever go into an offseason thinking they have $50 million to spend. I'd doubt they would spend more than $20 million on free agents. I half suspect this assumed low 2013 payroll is a way to set a low baseline to measure furture payrolls against.

[ThePuck]

I said it.

 

Joe Saunders » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

did I disagree with you?

[ThePuck]

I half suspect this assumed low 2013 payroll is a way to set a low baseline to measure furture payrolls against.

 

If you think 80M is low, wait till next year and the year after...

[edavis0308]

did I disagree with you?

 

Nope. I was mobile and it was easier to quote you then to go back a page to quote the first half of that.

[nicksaviking]

If you think 80M is low, wait till next year and the year after...

 

Yup, that's what I mean, if the Twins spent say $90 million this year, there would be even more outrage when payroll drops to $70 million after another 90 loss season. And then if the Twins by some unlikely happenstance DO get back to the $80 million range they have this year, they'll proudly tell the fans, "See, we kept payroll the same even though you guys didn't show up to the stadium. We're not so cheap after all!"

[ericchri]

I'm skeptical how healthy Pelfrey will be to start the season, I believe Harden is beyond an extreme longshot to be in the rotation, Worley's coming off injury, Diamond had surgery and looked to be fading a bit towards the end of the season, and Correia just looks to top out at very mediocre. Then you have Gibson on an innings limit, and a bunch of guys without enough sample size to know what you'll get.

 

I'd love to see them spend money on a guy with a track record that says "he'll be league-average, maybe a hair better or worse" for 180+ innings. If it takes 3 years, so be it. Then we can start washing the AAAA guys out of our system over the next couple years but not have to turn over the entire rotation in the process. Would it be so bad to have a Saunders getting bumped down to # 4-5 but still in the rotation in 2015 (and that assumes success from 3-4 of Diamond, Worley, May, Meyer, Hermsen, Hendricks, Gibson, all of whom have not enough history to be certain of anything)?

[Rosterman]

In 2015 and 2016 your Diamonds and Worleys start to get expensive. ,In 2017 your Gibson gets expensive. In 2018 your May and Meyer get expensive. You will be juggling keeping your own or letting them go and signing someone for the interm.. If Saunders is overpaid for 2013 and 2014, he will also be underpaid come 2015, and the Twins payroll will be so low (no Blackburn, No Correria, No Willingham, no Doumit). 2016-2018 will be arbitration years for anyone the Twins play this year and next. There is still some control, and some overpayment as the decade ends...or newer blood takes those places. Do we pay a Johnson or Wainwright $24-30 million next year to have them pitch thru 2016. Wait for the the 2015 season and sign a guy to pitch in 2016-2017 for $12-15 million a year? And whatever is owed, say, a Saunders in 2015 may be off the books in 2014 if the team advances younguns and he becomes tradebait at a reasonable cost, assuming he pitches to a 180+ inning mark with a respecable .425+ ERA.

[ashbury]

I would like to think this would be factored into the decisions, but next year's free agent pitchers do not appear very strong at all.

 

I didn't think this year's crop was all that strong either. Maybe that's a trend - teams more willing to lock up their own players to competitive contracts - arguably even a healthy trend for the game itself. Doesn't bode well for a team just entering a period of renewed competitiveness, that wants to make a key signing or two to help push them over the top, though.

 

Imagine if in October 2015 we're looking back and saying "man, I wish we had Joe Saunders and his 4.50 ERA for only $10M, we'd have won the division." Like I was saying, "perfect information" goes both directions, even if I think the negative outcomes outweigh the positive ones for the average move taken now. A few weeks ago, when the question was whether to go to 5 years for a certain guy, I took a look at the established starters in the AL 5 years previous, and almost without exception, some new team *had* taken a flyer on each guy, and by year 5 there was some significant degree of regret. Of course the question needs to include whether significant benefit was obtained in the early years; also, 5 years is a lot different than just 3.

[Top Gun]

Saunders just doesn't have the upside I want in a pitcher.

[ThePuck]

In 2015 and 2016 your Diamonds and Worleys start to get expensive. ,In 2017 your Gibson gets expensive. In 2018 your May and Meyer get expensive. You will be juggling keeping your own or letting them go and signing someone for the interm.. If Saunders is overpaid for 2013 and 2014, he will also be underpaid come 2015, and the Twins payroll will be so low (no Blackburn, No Correria, No Willingham, no Doumit). 2016-2018 will be arbitration years for anyone the Twins play this year and next. There is still some control, and some overpayment as the decade ends...or newer blood takes those places. Do we pay a Johnson or Wainwright $24-30 million next year to have them pitch thru 2016. Wait for the the 2015 season and sign a guy to pitch in 2016-2017 for $12-15 million a year? And whatever is owed, say, a Saunders in 2015 may be off the books in 2014 if the team advances younguns and he becomes tradebait at a reasonable cost, assuming he pitches to a 180+ inning mark with a respecable .425+ ERA.

 

By starting to get expensive, do you mean hitting arbitration years?

 

P.S., don't forget no Morny

[Alex]

I didn't think this year's crop was all that strong either. Maybe that's a trend - teams more willing to lock up their own players to competitive contracts - arguably even a healthy trend for the game itself. Doesn't bode well for a team just entering a period of renewed competitiveness, that wants to make a key signing or two to help push them over the top, though.

.

 

Maybe I just see things differently but I am getting tired of this narrative, one pushed by the Twins. The problem, and what shapes the perception, is that the Twins don't fall into the category of team in your last sentence. They don't have interest in signing "key" or impact FA.

 

You are probably right that in general starting pitchers are valued and locked up by their teams more than, say, corner OF, but that doesn't mean this year was weak in comparison to other years.

[Brandon]

I remember getting ripped for suggesting we trade for him last year. Just saying.....

We absolutely should sign him to a 2 or 3 year contract. Any of our pitchers can always be traded if we have a surplus. you can never have enough pitching. now if we can get the Twins to sign Sanchez or Johnson to play 2b. I would say we are close to a .500 team at that point and could contend it things break right.

[ThePuck]

I remember getting ripped for suggesting we trade for him last year. Just saying.....

We absolutely should sign him to a 2 or 3 year contract. Any of our pitchers can always be traded if we have a surplus. you can never have enough pitching. now if we can get the Twins to sign Sanchez or Johnson to play 2b. I would say we are close to a .500 team at that point and could contend it things break right.

 

You think getting Saunders and Sanchez/Johnson at 2B makes us close to .500 and possible contenders?

[Big City]

Hillarious how people bitch and moan about not signing any good free agent pitchers and then this Saunders rumor comes back around and those same people are saying that they wouln't go 3-years for him. How many good free agents sign 2-year contracts (aside from Corriea, jk)?

 

Also, for those that would sign him to a 2-year contract at a higher average annual salary, WHY? Why would you sign him to a 2-year $20 million contract when you could sign him to a 3-year $24 million contract. An annual salary of $8 million is more desirable to an acquiring team if he gets traded meaning better prospects plus you get an extra year of team control.

[ThePuck]

Hillarious how people bitch and moan about not signing any good free agent pitchers and then this Saunders rumor comes back around and those same people are saying that they wouln't go 3-years for him. How many good free agents sign 2-year contracts (aside from Corriea, jk)?

 

You're sure they are the same people? Cause I'm all for getting him