Article: Under-Delivering

[jokin]

 

 

No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years.

 

If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime?

.

 

Truer words have never before been written by Nick Nelson.

 

I've been of the mind that the Twins goal is to field a Rays-level of competitiveness-and more importantly payroll- but not until 2015. The Rays won the AL in 2008, in a worst-to-first run, following a succession of previous years at the bottom of the AL East. The Rays opening-day payroll in 08? $43.7M. At the rate that the Twins are headed, they likely to be fielding a 2015 team with Joe Mauer being one of the only players making much more than $1M. Of course, the fly in the ointment for this scenario is that the Twins haven't demonstrated that they can consistently develop and trade for young talent to regain contender status that quickly.

 

The tolerance level for the current putrid on-field product on the part of writers like Mackey and certain fans/posters is headscratching in the extreme.

[ThePuck]

Truer words have never before been written by Nick Nelson.

 

I've been of the mind that the Twins goal is to field a Rays-level of competitiveness-and more importantly payroll- but not until 2015. The Rays won the AL in 2008, in a worst-to-first run, following a succession of previous years at the bottom of the AL East. The Rays opening-day payroll in 08? $43.7M. At the rate that the Twins are headed, they likely to be fielding a 2015 team with Joe Mauer being one of the only players making much more than $1M. Of course, the fly in the ointment for this scenario is that the Twins haven't demonstrated that they can consistently develop and trade for young talent to regain contender status that quickly.

 

The tolerance level for the current putrid on-field product on the part of writers like Mackey and certain fans/posters is headscratching in the extreme.

 

2015 would be a dream as well. Most of out better prospects should be up by then (with the probable exception of Berrios and Buxton), but that is hardly gonna make them automatically competitive. Gonna take some time after that

[jokin]

I'm sure we can mince data and statistics (For example 2.0 WAR is representative of starter at any position, so calling it the median, is, imo, misleading, especially when the bottom is not zero).

 

Even if we agree to use yours, which I will for this post, then we agree that it would be the same as last year. Not better, not thin. Fine. Moving on.

 

 

 

Please go here: Minnesota Twins 2012 Pitching Statistics - ESPN (I used this for a nice easy sort)

 

You'll note that the Twins starting staff had a combined negative WAR, and it's not really even close, sadly.

 

Only one pitcher, Scott Diamond, had a WAR over 2 (2.2). Deduno and Deveries were the only other two positive WAR pitchers at a whopping .6 and .2. Nick Blackburn was a -2.3 WAR pitcher.

 

So adding "average" pitcher 2.4 WAR is a huge net gain to replace Blackburn, The equivalent of adding a HOF pitcher to most staffs.

 

Do you know what Correia's WAR was? -.1. While WAR is an ambiguous stat, it points out why people are flabbergasted by the signing. Cole Devries in that spot would be an improvement and save $9M dollars.

 

 

 

I'd argue it matters who they got, and I'd also point out that based on reports, they didn't really go after even decent pitching. Whether or not that's true, it doesn't matter at this point. The biggest chunk of money used this offseason was poorly spent and they sat on the rest <or> didn't make offers enticing enough to get anyone better. As such, we have a rotation that will likely still be the worst in the league next year.

 

Excellent points, parts of which have been used in futile attempts to persuade Nurse to change his outlook in the past. As usual, when it comes to Twins-defending, the OleNurse faithfully follows the UNCF credo...'A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Waste': An Iconic Campaign Turns 40 | GoodWorks - Advertising Age

[jokin]

2015 would be a dream as well. Most of out better prospects should be up by then (with the probable exception of Berrios and Buxton), but that is hardly gonna make them automatically competitive. Gonna take some time after that

 

 

 

I agree, merely stating my vision of the Twins' very own homegrown pipedream.

 

Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, Minier all possibly 2016? It would be nice if they could get the #1 pick and get Appel, he'd be well on his way to becoming staff ace in 2015, even if he doesn't match his current MLB projection.

[ThePuck]

I agree, merely stating my vision of the Twins' very own homegrown pipedream.

 

Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, Minier all possibly 2016? It would be nice if they could get the #1 pick and get Appel, he'd be well on his way to becoming staff ace in 2015, even if he doesn't match his current MLB projection.

 

I'm hoping Stros draft Appel again and offer him even less than they did last year. That'd be awesome

[Ultima Ratio]

I'm hoping Stros draft Appel again and offer him even less than they did last year. That'd be awesome

Didn't the Pirates draft him last year?

[ThePuck]

Didn't the Pirates draft him last year?

 

Oh right, my bad...Stros didn't draft him because he (Boras) basically said Appel wouldn't sign with them if he took him.

 

Thanks for the refresher.

[SweetOne69]

This sounds like something we might have read about Jason Marquis a year ago.

 

 

No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years.

 

If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime?

 

 

There's no need for this kind of vitriol in every post, Lev. You can disagree with people's points without using such insulting language.

 

It's one thing to expect prospects/rookies to contribute, but it appears that the Twins' expect them all to perform at ROY levels.

 

As has been mentioned before, the core of the '87 championship team began their careers in '82. It took a few years of playing together to finally gel into a complete club.

[jokin]

I'm hoping Stros draft Appel again and offer him even less than they did last year. That'd be awesome

 

Why? He'd just sign with that other MN team and then be able to sign with anyone the following season. The Twins should seriously consider an Indy Colts-type strategy that got them quite a bit of Luck in the NFL draft.

[ThePuck]

Why? He'd just sign with that other MN team and then be able to sign with anyone the following season. The Twins should seriously consider an Indy Colts-type strategy that got them quite a bit of Luck in the NFL draft.

 

which is what the plan was last year...and he had Stanford to fall back on. You're right though, he could choose not to sign again...that'd be interesting

[Ultima Ratio]

which is what the plan was last year...and he had Stanford to fall back on. You're right though, he could choose not to sign again...that'd be interesting

 

 

Why would he not sign when drafted this year? If it doesn't wouldn't he be missing out on millions by signing to the team that drafted him (in signing bonus)? If he doesn't sign, doesn't that bonus money go away? I don't understand the leverage Appel would have or the motivation to not sign as high as possible this year.

[Alex]

Why would he not sign when drafted this year? If it doesn't wouldn't he be missing out on millions by signing to the team that drafted him (in signing bonus)? If he doesn't sign, doesn't that bonus money go away? I don't understand the leverage Appel would have or the motivation to not sign as high as possible this year.

 

I'd agree that he has far less leverage this year which makes the non-signing last year baffling to me.

[ThePuck]

Why would he not sign when drafted this year? If it doesn't wouldn't he be missing out on millions by signing to the team that drafted him (in signing bonus)? If he doesn't sign, doesn't that bonus money go away? I don't understand the leverage Appel would have or the motivation to not sign as high as possible this year.

 

If they aren't willing to pay him what he thinks he's worth?

[ThePuck]

I'd agree that he has far less leverage this year which makes the non-signing last year baffling to me.

 

He was expected to be the first pick by many, but after statements by Boras, Stros went for a sure thing...Twins followed suit, and on and on till the Pirates took a chance. Boras cried cause he wanted way more money for his guy than was slotted for as the #8 pick. Now Houston has the #1 pick again, like they did last year.

[jokin]

If they aren't willing to pay him what he thinks he's worth?

 

Or, more importantly what Boras thinks he's worth. Never underestimate the evil genius, he's had the wags scratching their collective heads in the past, and his clients usually come out of difficult contract situations pretty wealthy.

[Ultima Ratio]

If they aren't willing to pay him what he thinks he's worth?

 

Why would he chose not to sign this year? What's the upside?

[ThePuck]

Why would he chose not to sign this year? What's the upside?

 

I never said there was an upside.

[Ultima Ratio]

I never said there was an upside.

 

Then why wouldn't he sign if there's no upside to not signing?

[ThePuck]

Then why wouldn't he sign if there's no upside to not signing?

 

If he didn't think he was getting what Boras thinks he's worth, he may be convinced to not sign...like last year. Doesn't mean there really is upside.

 

If you follow the conversation, I wasn't the one who originally suggested he might not sign this year...i just gave a possible reason as to why if he didn't. I think he will sign, but if not, that would be the reason...

[Ultima Ratio]

If he didn't think he was getting what Boras thinks he's worth, he may be convinced to not sign...like last year. Doesn't mean there really is upside.

 

If you follow the conversation, I wasn't the one who originally suggested he might not sign this year...i just gave a possible reason as to why if he didn't. I think he will sign, but if not, that would be the reason...

 

I did follow the conversation. You and Jokin both say the he might choose not to sign. All I'm naively asking is why given that he'd lose out on signing bonus money. It doesn't make sense to me, but since you say he might, I thought maybe you had a reason why he'd do that. I'm granting the fact that I may be missing something here that would make him not signing a option worthing of considering. But, from what I understand there isn't.

[Ultima Ratio]

Maybe he doesn't sign with the Astros just out of spite?

[ThePuck]

I did follow the conversation. You and Jokin both say the he might choose not to sign. All I'm naively asking is why given that he'd lose out on signing bonus money. It doesn't make sense to me, but since you say he might, I thought maybe you had a reason why he'd do that. I'm granting the fact that I may be missing something here that would make him not signing a option worthing of considering. But, from what I understand there isn't.

 

I gave you the only reason I can think of like three times. I'm not sure what else you want from me. Someone else said he might. I said it's possible, but that doesn't mean I think he will...nor do I think there'd be an advantage. I said it was possible.

[TheLeviathan]

There's no need for this kind of vitriol in every post, Lev. You can disagree with people's points without using such insulting language.

 

It's far from every post, especially in this thread I've tried to stick very hard to the points. But if you're going to jump into a 10 page thread - read it first would be my advice for that poster. Most of that trumped up post had been responded to multiple times, it was annoying to have it rehashed again.

[beckmt]

Maybe Boris is playing Appel for a dupe. Planning to use him in a slavery court case to void the Players Agreement and making all unsigned talent free agents available to the highest payer.

[cmathewson]

This sounds like something we might have read about Jason Marquis a year ago.

 

I can see the comparison in terms of stuff but not durability. Marquis was a huge injury risk when he signed. Also, the kind of thing Marquis went through to miss spring training is as likely to happen to Correia as getting hit by lightening.

 

No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years.

 

I was referring to your first post expressing disappointment with Ryan, comparing this offseason with the Royals. Not a valid comparison for the reasons I gave. Ryan traded for talent that will be ready in 2014. The Royals traded for talent that is ready now and will be gone in 2014. I'd rather wait than give up top talent to win now.

 

If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime?

 

 

I don't agree. They now have four highly touted pitching prospects who are former first round draft picks and who will likely be ready by 2014 (counting Wimmers). Add Worley and Diamond and they have the makings of a very good young staff.

 

When people do simple numerical analysis of the Twins starters in 2012, they seem to forget that much of the horror happened with guys who will not even be in the running for jobs in 2013 (Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano, Marquis, Swarzak). Some guys who will be in the running actually pitched decently (Diamond, Deduno, DeVries). Based on what I saw in the second half, combined with the additions, it won't be nearly as bad as the numbers indicated in 2012. It won't be enough to contend, but we won't have to play from 5 runs down in the second inning every game like last year.

[old nurse]

Excellent points, parts of which have been used in futile attempts to persuade Nurse to change his outlook in the past. As usual, when it comes to Twins-defending, the OleNurse faithfully follows the UNCF credo...'A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Waste': An Iconic Campaign Turns 40 | GoodWorks - Advertising Age

 

The point has always been that signing any of these less than average available pitchers on the free agent market will not make the Twins better. The other point has been no one has a clue what the contact with the upper echelon free agents has been. If they do not want to come here there is no point in negotiating. I won't stoop to the comment on wasting minds.

[johnnydakota]

Then why wouldn't he sign if there's no upside to not signing?

 

Boras.............

[old nurse]

I'm hoping Stros draft Appel again and offer him even less than they did last year. That'd be awesome

 

The Pirates drafted Appel with the eight selection last year. Last year the Astros drafted Carlos Correa with the first selection. This year the Pirates draft 14. I doubt Appel would be there. If he was, then Pittsburg would have less money in their pool to offer him. Last year the slot money for #1 was 7.2 million, #8 2.9 million. #14 2.375 million. Had the Astros drafted him and he had not signed, Appel would have the right to request not to be drafted by the Astros again. He might make the request Pittsburg not draft him again however I am sure he is confident that will not be an issue.

[ThePuck]

The Pirates drafted Appel with the eight selection last year. Last year the Astros drafted Carlos Correa with the first selection. This year the Pirates draft 14. I doubt Appel would be there. If he was, then Pittsburg would have less money in their pool to offer him. Last year the slot money for #1 was 7.2 million, #8 2.9 million. #14 2.375 million. Had the Astros drafted him and he had not signed, Appel would have the right to request not to be drafted by the Astros again. He might make the request Pittsburg not draft him again however I am sure he is confident that will not be an issue.

 

If you read the thread, I was already shown the error of my ways and I clarified what I meant. Thanks for the reminder again, though.

[Nick Nelson]

I can see the comparison in terms of stuff but not durability. Marquis was a huge injury risk when he signed. Also, the kind of thing Marquis went through to miss spring training is as likely to happen to Correia as getting hit by lightening.

So you're saying all that was responsible for Marquis' bad results and not the fact that he's, ya know, not very good? Is the same true for the rest of the sub par veterans the Twins have signed on the cheap in past years who have also produced horrible results?

 

I was referring to your first post expressing disappointment with Ryan, comparing this offseason with the Royals. Not a valid comparison for the reasons I gave. Ryan traded for talent that will be ready in 2014. The Royals traded for talent that is ready now and will be gone in 2014. I'd rather wait than give up top talent to win now.

The point being made was that the Royals, like the rest of the division, were actively attempting to improve their rotation for 2013. It was not an endorsement of their approach, although I wouldn't have minded the Santana or Guthrie moves for the Twins.

 

I don't agree. They now have four highly touted pitching prospects who are former first round draft picks and who will likely be ready by 2014 (counting Wimmers). Add Worley and Diamond and they have the makings of a very good young staff.

 

When people do simple numerical analysis of the Twins starters in 2012, they seem to forget that much of the horror happened with guys who will not even be in the running for jobs in 2013 (Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano, Marquis, Swarzak). Some guys who will be in the running actually pitched decently (Diamond, Deduno, DeVries). Based on what I saw in the second half, combined with the additions, it won't be nearly as bad as the numbers indicated in 2012. It won't be enough to contend, but we won't have to play from 5 runs down in the second inning every game like last year.

Where do people get the idea that non-elite pitching prospects routinely come up and become rotation staples right away? Far more frequently, these kids come up, get beat around a bit, shuttle back and forth from Triple-A and eventually settle in after two or three seasons. We've seen it with Baker and Garza, we're seeing it now with Hendriks. A couple 22-year-olds who haven't yet solved Double-A are probably a fair distance from solving the major leagues, and that's IF they stay healthy, on track and don't end up in the bullpen.

 

As for your second paragraph, I tend to agree that the returning contingent has a decent shot at being much better than people expect. But that would make it all the more frustrating that the club didn't give them more help.