Article: On Paradigms and Kevin Correia

[nicksaviking]

This would barely register with people if Ryan hadn't made it a 2 year deal. Why Ryan gave only his SECOND EVER multi year deal to a starter not currently under contract with the team, to Kevin Correia is so bizare. I'm sure his arguement would have been, well if I didn't give him 2 years we wouldn't have gotten him. So what? You could have gotten the same quality pitcher in a month or two for one year. The money's not the issue, the years and the fact that now he won't possibly be DFA'd like last years screw up Marquis is the problem. No one can be thrilled that we get to discuss Correia's role with the team at this time next year too.

[Mike Sixel]

100 million over 5 years? That is what a good team costs. Why is spending that bad or wrong for a team getting $25MM more in revenue next year?

[Dave T]

If this is such a bad signing, why were other teams also chasing Correia? I think he picked the right year to be a free agent.

[70charger]

A. I'm not really defending the signing... He wouldn't have been my first choice but I really don't know that TR signing Correia First necessarily means that he was TR's first choice either.

 

B. My post wasn't meant to slam Diamond or directly cause a comparison between the two. Comparing players is impossible. I just wanted to point out that the difference between Diamond and Correia when it comes to numbers in 2012 are very similiar.

 

C. Similiar numbers simply points out that it's possible that we are losing our minds a little here.

 

D. I'm as shocked by the salary as anyone but the market is the market and we have little control over that... Much like we can't control the price of gas.

 

E. Age is why he's making 5 Million and Diamond is making 500,000. That's the way baseball is structured. If Diamond was eligible for FA... The salary for Diamond would change... It's really a non-point to make.

 

F. Fielding Independant Stats will always be tough on pitchers with low K-Rates.

 

G. The Difference in ERA between the two over 170 Innings is 12 earned runs. A lot of factors can make up the difference in 12 runs over the year. One Ben Revere catch at the right time... Can save you 4 earned runs in a single inning. It isn't worth wringing your hands over.

 

H. Next year... Correia could be at 4.05 and Diamond could be at 4.35... Things change.

 

I. I'm not defending the signing... He wouldn't have been my first choice but the Blackburn and Marquis comparisons are a bit much. Blackburn and Marquis had ERA's over 8 for the Twins in 2012.

 

J. LOL... I'm sure your torches are still lit.

 

This is very well-reasoned, and I appreciate that amid all of the negative hyperbole.

 

Btw, I'm not going to defend the signing either. I think the second year is pretty ridiculous. But when we're constantly ripping on the GM for not just going out and throwing money at pitchers, and then ripping on him for throwing money at a pitcher, things seem a little skewed to me.

 

In any case, I can't see how this makes the Twins better. But I can't see how it would make them worse either. And given the circumstances, I find that to be an important distinction, seeing as Blackburn, Walters, Deduno, and Devries would indeed make the team worse. Maybe this is what it costs to tread water in this free agency year?

[johnnydakota]

You guys must really not like Terry Ryan and Kevin Correia. I post a positive note on Correia and it's gone in less then a minute. Simply amazing!

i posted a negitive note and it was also gone ,hahaha

[snepp]

I'm not thrilled with Correia, as I was hoping for somewhat better "hold the fort" signings, but ultimately the $10M spent will not hold the team back in either year.

 

We were told just this past season they didn't have any additional money to improve the team when even a few million could have improved the bullpen. Ultimately that $5 million next year could hurt the team.

[chuuke]

Uhhhmmm, can you repeat the part, about the stuff?

 

...with the things...

[Riverbrian]

A. I'm not really defending the signing... He wouldn't have been my first choice but I really don't know that TR signing Correia First necessarily means that he was TR's first choice either.

 

B. My post wasn't meant to slam Diamond or directly cause a comparison between the two. Comparing players is impossible. I just wanted to point out that the difference between Diamond and Correia when it comes to numbers in 2012 are very similiar.

 

C. Similiar numbers simply points out that it's possible that we are losing our minds a little here.

 

D. I'm as shocked by the salary as anyone but the market is the market and we have little control over that... Much like we can't control the price of gas.

 

E. Age is why he's making 5 Million and Diamond is making 500,000. That's the way baseball is structured. If Diamond was eligible for FA... The salary for Diamond would change... It's really a non-point to make.

 

F. Fielding Independant Stats will always be tough on pitchers with low K-Rates.

 

G. The Difference in ERA between the two over 170 Innings is 12 earned runs. A lot of factors can make up the difference in 12 runs over the year. One Ben Revere catch at the right time... Can save you 4 earned runs in a single inning. It isn't worth wringing your hands over.

 

H. Next year... Correia could be at 4.05 and Diamond could be at 4.35... Things change.

 

I. I'm not defending the signing... He wouldn't have been my first choice but the Blackburn and Marquis comparisons are a bit much. Blackburn and Marquis had ERA's over 8 for the Twins in 2012.

 

J. LOL... I'm sure your torches are still lit.

 

This is very well-reasoned, and I appreciate that amid all of the negative hyperbole.

 

Btw, I'm not going to defend the signing either. I think the second year is pretty ridiculous. But when we're constantly ripping on the GM for not just going out and throwing money at pitchers, and then ripping on him for throwing money at a pitcher, things seem a little skewed to me.

 

In any case, I can't see how this makes the Twins better. But I can't see how it would make them worse either. And given the circumstances, I find that to be an important distinction, seeing as Blackburn, Walters, Deduno, and Devries would indeed make the team worse. Maybe this is what it costs to tread water in this free agency year?

 

The second year was the part that concerned me as well... However... Without direct knowledge of the negotiation, or direct knowledge of all negotiations... I can't make any assumptions on why.

 

The one thing that I assume quite comfortably was that TR didn't say... "Kevin... Here's an extra year for the hell of it".

 

I'm glad you see the no win situation Our GM and all GM's are put in. I had no doubt that you woud see that... You've always been balanced in the majority of your posts. I enjoy reading them.

[ThePuck]

Diamond's ERA plus last year was 115. Correia's was 88.

[Riverbrian]

Diamond's ERA plus last year was 115. Correia's was 88.

 

The majority of stats are all derived from the same basic information... Each different stat will simply add or takeaway from the same basic stats.

 

Diamonds ERA was better than Correia in 2012... So it stands to reason that it would be better after it is adjusted for ballpark.

 

Diamonds ERA was better based on 12 Earned runs over 170 innings.

[jimbo92107]

The paradigm is an interesting concept in that it attempts to describe a body of ideas within a functional metaphor. For instance, Darwin's "survival of the fittest" paradigm for evolution is commonly misunderstood to imply that physical strength is an invaluable survival trait, ignoring the fact that butterflies and petunias...exist, and have survived for as long as any other living thing.

 

Twins management, like Oakland's, realized that exceptional strength, speed and other impressive physical attributes do not necessarily make for a great ballplayer, and that having a team of such people (whose services usually come at a premium price) does not mean you will win a World Series. "Chemistry" is the paradigm that has floated around sports for a long time, and every team has its own secret sauce for what kind of chemistry will produce a winning formula. Teams like the Twins, A's and Rays have been trying to find a formula for winning that does not require such expensive ingredients.

 

Indeedy do, a pitcher like Kevin Correia, lacking overpowering stuff, must fit successfully within a more complex system of interacting parts. Correia cannot simply walk out there like CC Sabbathia and strike people out or induce easy grounders and pop-ups. As a "pitch to contact" type, Correia must work in concert with a very good defense, one that understands how to anticipate the interaction between Correia's every pitch and the likely response from each hitter. In other words, behind him he needs a bunch of friggin' psychic geniuses that field like Derek Jeter.

 

That's not asking too much, is it?

[Riverbrian]

The paradigm is an interesting concept in that it attempts to describe a body of ideas within a functional metaphor. For instance, Darwin's "survival of the fittest" paradigm for evolution is commonly misunderstood to imply that physical strength is an invaluable survival trait, ignoring the fact that butterflies and petunias...exist, and have survived for as long as any other living thing.

 

Twins management, like Oakland's, realized that exceptional strength, speed and other impressive physical attributes do not necessarily make for a great ballplayer, and that having a team of such people (whose services usually come at a premium price) does not mean you will win a World Series. "Chemistry" is the paradigm that has floated around sports for a long time, and every team has its own secret sauce for what kind of chemistry will produce a winning formula. Teams like the Twins, A's and Rays have been trying to find a formula for winning that does not require such expensive ingredients.

 

Indeedy do, a pitcher like Kevin Correia, lacking overpowering stuff, must fit successfully within a more complex system of interacting parts. Correia cannot simply walk out there like CC Sabbathia and strike people out or induce easy grounders and pop-ups. As a "pitch to contact" type, Correia must work in concert with a very good defense, one that understands how to anticipate the interaction between Correia's every pitch and the likely response from each hitter. In other words, behind him he needs a bunch of friggin' psychic geniuses that field like Derek Jeter.

 

That's not asking too much, is it?

 

I agree... I've always said that the fastest way to improve ERA's is to put a bunch of guys out there behind the pitcher who get to balls that most don't get to,

[joeboo_22]

If this was a 1 year 5 or even 6 million dollar deal in February I wouldn't have a problem with it. But a 2 year deal in December is the big problem with this. There is other pitching out there. I'd rather have TR wait it out a bit and see what is there in January and February then to make this signing now.

[Willihammer]

No defense can keep balls in the park. We are talking about a guy who posted a 5.40 ERA playing in Petco park in front of a defense which, according to UZR, saved 50 runs.

 

The year before, same park, and an ERA of 3.91 in front of a defense that cost the team 10 runs.

 

There isn't much, if any correlation between Correia's ERA and the quality of the defenses he was pitching in front of. Instead you will find the correlation is stronger between HR/FB, and ERA (and IP).

 

This is a 10 million gamble on batted ball luck, make no mistake about it.

[Nick Nelson]

Indeedy do, a pitcher like Kevin Correia, lacking overpowering stuff, must fit successfully within a more complex system of interacting parts. Correia cannot simply walk out there like CC Sabbathia and strike people out or induce easy grounders and pop-ups. As a "pitch to contact" type, Correia must work in concert with a very good defense, one that understands how to anticipate the interaction between Correia's every pitch and the likely response from each hitter. In other words, behind him he needs a bunch of friggin' psychic geniuses that field like Derek Jeter.

Therein lies the problem. The Twins might not have one stand-out defender on the field this year, having just dealt away their two best gloves.

[Riverbrian]

Indeedy do, a pitcher like Kevin Correia, lacking overpowering stuff, must fit successfully within a more complex system of interacting parts. Correia cannot simply walk out there like CC Sabbathia and strike people out or induce easy grounders and pop-ups. As a "pitch to contact" type, Correia must work in concert with a very good defense, one that understands how to anticipate the interaction between Correia's every pitch and the likely response from each hitter. In other words, behind him he needs a bunch of friggin' psychic geniuses that field like Derek Jeter.

Therein lies the problem. The Twins might not have one stand-out defender on the field this year, having just dealt away their two best gloves.

 

In my mind... This is a much more legitimate argument.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Indeedy do, a pitcher like Kevin Correia, lacking overpowering stuff, must fit successfully within a more complex system of interacting parts. Correia cannot simply walk out there like CC Sabbathia and strike people out or induce easy grounders and pop-ups. As a "pitch to contact" type, Correia must work in concert with a very good defense, one that understands how to anticipate the interaction between Correia's every pitch and the likely response from each hitter. In other words, behind him he needs a bunch of friggin' psychic geniuses that field like Derek Jeter.

Therein lies the problem. The Twins might not have one stand-out defender on the field this year, having just dealt away their two best gloves.

You underestimate the Maestro.

[Nick Nelson]

You underestimate the Maestro.

 

Center field is probably the team's best hope for a high-caliber defender, and it looks like the options there are a rookie or a guy who's played 5 MLB games in CF.

[ashbury]

You underestimate the Maestro.

 

The discussion about his defense, which I think can be major-league average, doesn't touch on why Maestro would be a depressing concept as a starting CF.

[ashbury]

I'm confident TR will sign a more significant name to add to the rotation, in the coming weeks.

 

This is key. If he gets someone good, then had this signing occurred later we'd be nodding in agreement about solidifying the staff or whatnot. But... until that other signing occurs, I'm cautiously pessimistic that this is as good as it gets, and that a slightly more expensive option like Saunders woulda coulda shoulda been better.

[CDog]

Right now, the 2013 Twins are still probably a better team than the 2012 Twins...

 

That's dubious, at best.

 

No centerfielder, no leadoff hitter. No additions to the middle infield. Nothing significant added to a very shallow bullpen that will likely be hard pressed to match last year's mediocrity. Outside of the rotation, the Twins were about as healthy as could be expected in 2012. The only 2012 starter who performed at a major league level is a pretty good candidate for some serious regression.

 

The only additions of note are Correia, and coming-off-elbow-surgery Worley. Gibson may or may not be ready, and/or healthy enough to take a rotation spot for part of the season, and if he does, succeed. Hendrics has done little to give one much optomisim.

 

I think there's a much stronger argument to be made that right now, the 2013 Twins are most likely several games worse than the 2012 Twins.

 

I agree that the team as it stands now doesn't make me feel as confident (or makes me feel more pessimistic?) as the one they had heading into spring training of 2012. As the team came out of the spring or at least a month or two into the season once it had become clear that Baker, Pavano, Marquis, Blackburn, AND Liriano were going to give little to nothing...from that point I don't think the team as it stands now is much worse. Is it? Maybe I just can't let myself think that it could be. Also...I haven't been able to let myself think you're right in your later post that they aren't going to sign another FA starter. And I'm well aware that that may be more hope than expectation.

[CDog]

otherwise, like the commentors said above - all this bantering is uninformed gibberish.

 

Oh stewardess! I speak gibberish.

 

Hehehehe. That was much needed after reading all the threads today. Thank you, sir.

[savvyspy]

Paradigms not really justified?? There is a 25 year tsunami of evidence that proves the Twins love pitch to contact guys and are cheap. The most frightning thing about the last few years is you used to get the sense that the Twins real goal was to make the playoffs and hope. They were reletively successful at it. Solid seasons followed by god awful play in the playoffs but it was all fine and good and made for pleasurable summer nights at the ballpark.

 

Now this front office is trying to sell this scam that the price of player forces them to not look at free agents and then piss away money on clowns like Correia who you can bank won't be on the major league roster by July.

 

There is NOTHING about Correia that makes him worth signing a minor league deal. He is not a starting pitcher on an ok non-playoff NL team and will be a complete disaster in the American League.

 

He is basically a NL version of Nick Blackburn. The only thing that makes any sense is this was purly a PR move so the Pohlads didn't get called out for cutting salary and pocketing the money.

 

I suppose Correia is a nice enough guy and we can be happy for his new fat bank account. At least the $10 million isn't rotting away in some Pohlad vault somewhere.

 

I'd comfortably give this signing an F

[FrodaddyG]

Come on, JR did his best. He floated lucrative 2 year/$10M offers out to every pitcher on the market. Correia just happened to respond first.

[dl3mk3]

Because a couple out of reach (for the twins) starting pitchers have signed does not mean the market has "dried up", this was a terrible signing considering the pitchers still available.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

If the A's sign Kevin Correia to this deal, it still sucks for them like it sucks for us.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think people understand just how badthis offense could be.

 

Exactly. We can talk about the pitching being moderately better, but has anyone looked at the potential lineup and the players at high risk for regressions? It ain't pretty.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think people understand just how badthis offense could be.

 

Exactly. We can talk about the pitching being moderately better, but has anyone looked at the potential lineup and the players at high risk for regressions? It ain't pretty.

 

Oh, the offense might be bad, no doubt about it. On the other hand, they need to let the kids play to see what they have going forward.

[TheLeviathan]

Oh, the offense might be bad, no doubt about it. On the other hand, they need to let the kids play to see what they have going forward.

 

No doubt. But then we are back to 2013 and 2014 being more about 2015 than any actual attempt to contend or get better. 2013 doesn't look better than 2012, one could argue it looks worse.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh, the offense might be bad, no doubt about it. On the other hand, they need to let the kids play to see what they have going forward.

 

No doubt. But then we are back to 2013 and 2014 being more about 2015 than any actual attempt to contend or get better. 2013 doesn't look better than 2012, one could argue it looks worse.

 

Well, I'd argue that it all depends on how the kids play. Is Parmelee Justin's replacement? Will the real Trevor Plouffe please stand up?

 

Most of the offensive issues revolve those two questions, in my opinion.