What others are saying about the trade

[jimbo92107]

 

ALTHOUGH, also worth noting that he was notoriously high on Balazovic before most people had even heard of him.  So there is that.

 

If I remember right the reason he didn't have Graterol as simply that he was never going to hold up to starting with the delivery that he had, and I think the front office has come around to that point of view as well.  I honestly think he's a rich man's Trevor May.  Which is nothing to sneeze at and a valuable piece, but some people are freaking like the Twins traded the next Nolan Ryan.

More like the Twins traded away the next Willie Banks. Tops.

[bird]

 

Low risk, high reward. MLBTR, MLB.com, and FanGraphs all liked the move for Hill. I'll let them know you didn't.

 

 

How foolish of you. And them. I'm going with jud6312.

[Squirrel]

 

How foolish of you. And them. I'm going with jud6312.

I'm going with heezy on this ...

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/36238-on-rich-hills-experimental-elbow-surgery-and-previous-injury-history/?p=952096

[jkcarew]

If you think Graterol is going to start in the future, you project his future value a certain way...and you hate the trade. If you think he's going to be a reliever, you project less future value, and you're more likely to love, or at least like, the trade.

 

IMO, it's pretty obvious where the Twins projected him. Could they be wrong? Yep. But judged on the information we have today, I like it. I do hope Boston isn't able to play this into the Twins having to give up more, though.

[puckstopper1]

 

Kenta rarely has consecutive bad starts and at times looks like a #3 starter.  However, he nibbles too much and often is out of gas around the 5th inning because of it.  

 

So we traded Graterol for the 2nd coming of Kyle Gibson...

[Battle ur tail off]

 

So we traded Graterol for the 2nd coming of Kyle Gibson...

Could be which is why I'd have rather they packaged him up with someone else to go after a pitcher closer to Berrios than the type of pitcher Gibson or at best Odorizzi is. Might have taken waiting to the deadline to make this happen. 

[Mike Sixel]

ZiPS doesn't really have Maeda as "MUCH better this year", though. The difference seems to be almost entirely in their role. And while the Twins were looking to begin Graterol's season in the pen, they didn't necessarily have to (or have to keep him there all season).

 

And a rounding error after this year would seem to favor the younger, cheaper, more controlled player, correct?

 

Again, I'm not opposed to the deal. And it should be interesting to watch unfold!

2.0 vs .05 isn't much?

[Mike Sixel]

Could be which is why I'd have rather they packaged him up with someone else to go after a pitcher closer to Berrios than the type of pitcher Gibson or at best Odorizzi is. Might have taken waiting to the deadline to make this happen.

I'd bet good money no such player is dealt this off season. Not even close.

 

And, they still have plenty of prospects to deal at the deadline.

[Otto von Ballpark]

2.0 vs .05 isn't much?

It’s based on the playing time the projection author somewhat arbitrarily assigned. It isn’t reinforcing anything we are saying about their prospective values, just repeating it.

[nicksaviking]

I'd bet good money no such player is dealt this off season. Not even close.

And, they still have plenty of prospects to deal at the deadline.

Yeah the Twins need pitching and have an abundance of bats. Stands to reason if they are now willing to give up a pitching prospect for a good MLB starting pitcher, they’d be willing to give up a pitching prospect plus some surplus bats for an even better pitcher.

 

I’ve been banging the drum for such a trade all winter, but since the Twins appear willing, and no pitchers of that caliber have been moved, I’d guess none are available.

[nicksaviking]

It’s based on the playing time the projection author somewhat arbitrarily assigned. It isn’t reinforcing anything we are saying about their prospective values, just repeating it.

Why is the playing time arbitrary but the results are not? If retained, I would not expect many MLB innings from Graterol this year. Though he’d probably get more with Boston as they’d like to showcase their new prize and have more holes in the pitching staff.

[Jeff_M]

 

"I pahked the cah in Havahd Yahd and when I turned on the radio I listened to some guy talking about how we traded Mookster for Buster Gatorade"

 

2X lol

 

[Jeff_M]

 

"It officially has become an off-season to remember for the Twins."

 

-not "official" yet..

 

[USAFChief]

Why is the playing time arbitrary but the results are not? If retained, I would not expect many MLB innings from Graterol this year. Though he’d probably get more with Boston as they’d like to showcase their new prize and have more holes in the pitching staff.

if retained, I'd expect 50-60 MLB innings from Graterol.

 

They werent going to send him down to start, and he easily fits into the MLB pen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why is the playing time arbitrary but the results are not? If retained, I would not expect many MLB innings from Graterol this year. Though he’d probably get more with Boston as they’d like to showcase their new prize and have more holes in the pitching staff.

The author admits in the article that he simply directed ZiPS to consider him a reliever in 2020, and a starter thereafter. That may be how things play out, but ZiPS isn’t acting as independent confirmation of that opinion — ZiPS is being directed by that opinion.

[nicksaviking]

 

if retained, I'd expect 50-60 MLB innings from Graterol.

They werent going to send him down to start, and he easily fits into the MLB pen.

 

I don't know, maybe. Right now I have Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Clippard and Littell in the pen, along with the loser of the battle for the early season 4th and 5th rotation spots which seem to include Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer. After that's all sorted out I'd peg Stashak as the first man up. And that's just my pen, knowing the Twins, Matt Wisler is going to find himself a spot to start the year.

 

I'm sure Graterol will get some innings, but with his options I'd think he'll be the guy shuttled up and down unless he's absolutely lights out.

 

Also, if they're moving him to the pen to start the year, and it sounds like they are, I don't see him coming back to the rotation. The team still needs much more help in the rotation than they do in the pen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The author admits in the article that he simply directed ZiPS to consider him a reliever in 2020, and a starter thereafter. That may be how things play out, but ZiPS isn’t acting as independent confirmation of that opinion — ZiPS is being directed by that opinion.

 

which is literally what the Twins said they'd do with him.

 

Also, how else would you like projections to work for rookies? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

which is literally what the Twins said they'd do with him.

 

Also, how else would you like projections to work for rookies? 

I have no problem with doing projections that way. It's just that such a projection ceases to have much authority backing up our opinions on starter/reliever usage, since it's simply following our opinions on starter/reliever usage. It's not like ZiPS is saying Graterol can't start or is somehow capped at 0.5 WAR in 2020. (It can suggest he won't throw too many innings in 2020 based on his history, which can be useful, but capping it at 45 like this is somewhat arbitrary.)

[Mike Sixel]

 

I have no problem with doing projections that way. It's just that such a projection ceases to have much authority backing up our opinions on starter/reliever usage, since it's simply following our opinions on starter/reliever usage. It's not like ZiPS is saying Graterol can't start or is somehow capped at 0.5 WAR in 2020. (It can suggest he won't throw too many innings in 2020 based on his history, which can be useful, but capping it at 45 like this is somewhat arbitrary.)

 

Even though the twins have said that he is a RP....you want to argue that him being projected as a RP is arbitrary? How else would you like him projected?

[nicksaviking]

 

Even though the twins have said that he is a RP....you want to argue that him being projected as a RP is arbitrary? How else would you like him projected?

 

I would like them to project him similar to Gerrit Cole until he is traded.

[USAFChief]

I would like them to project him similar to Gerrit Cole until he is traded.

WE TRADED GARRETT COLE FOR KENDALL MAEDDA!!1!!1 IDIOTS11!!!

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would like them to project him similar to Gerrit Cole until he is traded.

 

well played.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I'd bet good money no such player is dealt this off season. Not even close.

And, they still have plenty of prospects to deal at the deadline.

That is why I said they may have to wait for the deadline for this type of arm to become available. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Even though the twins have said that he is a RP....you want to argue that him being projected as a RP is arbitrary? How else would you like him projected?

I think we are talking past each other. I have no problem projecting him as a reliever. But you can’t cite that projection as evidence he’s not as valuable as a starter, because the projection itself is just restating the hypothesis.

[jkcarew]

 

But you can’t cite that projection as evidence he’s not as valuable as a starter, because the projection itself is just restating the hypothesis.

Huh?

 

And how do you have time to serve as a moderator for Twins Daily and also be a member of the US house or senate?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Huh?

 

And how do you have time to serve as a moderator for Twins Daily and also be a member of the US house or senate?

Congressional pages.

[tvagle]

Union Chief has something to say about the trade...