Front Page: Winter Meetings Bring a Dose of Cold Reality for Twins

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On second thought, I still like the idea of offering him big up-front money, and/or an opt-out after two years, at which time he could go do his Arizona thing after that.

 

The Twins really, really need starting pitching and I really wish they would have been more a part of this Bumgarner negotiation. I mean, Arizona floated a $70 million contract idea to him, and he turned it down earlier in free agency. Sure he wanted to go to Arizona but that does not mean there wasn’t a window or a way to entice him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, he says he had at least two 5/100+ offers

Thanks. The author makes a pretty compelling case that Bumgarner really preferred Arizona, so I don't question that... but I just can't shake my skepticism about two 5/100 offers, at this point. (Although the existence of such offers could help support some of my posts in another thread. )

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

and get this, his 2020 salary will be... $6 million. (So much for my prediction of front loading to woo him here )

I don't think backloading is evidence of too much sacrifice, for a veteran player with a lot in the bank already. Although it's notable and kinda cool, if Arizona can do something with the extra cash this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I mean, Arizona floated a $70 million contract idea to him, and he turned it down earlier in free agency. Sure he wanted to go to Arizona but that does not mean there wasn’t a window or a way to entice him.

I was about to post that too! $70 mil was right around MLBTR's predicted contract for him too (4/72), so it seems he did have some reasonably strong monetary concerns or he probably would have jumped at that.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Won't get that out of him. Only will get what we "wont" or "can't" do. 

 

As has been said zillions of times on here before, Twins have a pitching problem. There are 2 ways to correct it if you want it to happen quickly, sign or trade. So far it looks as if the FO wants to do neither. Or at least neither involving high end guys. This is a problem if you think we can compete, truly compete next season or the year after. 

It's my opinion this FO is perfectly happy waiting on their own prospects to develop in order to fill out this pitching staff. In fact, I would bet you see them trade someone away for more pitching prospects before you see them give up prospects for someone that is producing right now. 

Look for a trade of Odo if we happen to be 5 GB on July 30th. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Sure he wanted to go to Arizona but that does not mean there wasn’t a window or a way to entice him.

 

This is a nice fictional tale you have here. Zero facts, indeed completely contrary to every single public fact about the situation. But hey, shame on Falvey!

 

The best part is that Bumgarner isn't even that good. 

[Major League Ready]

 

On second thought, I still like the idea of offering him big up-front money, and/or an opt-out after two years, at which time he could go do his Arizona thing after that.

The Twins really, really need starting pitching and I really wish they would have been more a part of this Bumgarner negotiation. I mean, Arizona floated a $70 million contract idea to him, and he turned it down earlier in free agency. Sure he wanted to go to Arizona but that does not mean there wasn’t a window or a way to entice him.

 

What if Arizona is not in a position to sign a FA SP to a high AAV at the point. They likely spend that money elsewhere or they may reach a point where it makes sense to rebuild. Would you bet Arizona will be a contender two years from now if you have the deal you really want today?

 

The scenario also requires Bumgarner to remain effective and healthy. My guess is his agent is well aware of how often free agent SPs fail after the 1st year. In case you missed it. I provided that history here last year and as they say "the truth is ugly". 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What if Arizona is not in a position to sign a FA SP to a high AAV at the point. They likely spend that money elsewhere or they may reach a point where it makes sense to rebuild. Would you bet Arizona will be a contender two years from now if you have the deal you really want today?

 

The scenario also requires Bumgarner to remain effective and healthy. My guess is his agent is well aware of how often free agent SPs fail after the 1st year. In case you missed it. I provided that history here last year and as they say "the truth is ugly".

 

Then after two years, Bumgarner gauges the market and decides whether he should opt out, or not. Either way, after the Twins contract, Bumgarner finally takes his team-friendly deal in Arizona, because money is not Bumgarner’s primary motivation, remember?

 

I mean, we just saw this with Gerrit Cole a week ago, no? Cole was dead set on signing with a California team, telling his teammates as much, until New York showed enough interest in Cole that he was forced to listen.

 

And Cole’s family is from Southern California to boot.

 

“What if Arizona isn’t in position to sign Bumgarner in two years?” Then he takes the below market contract at that time instead. That’s what.

[Major League Ready]

 

Have you considered that people ignore your topics because of your self-imposed parameters? Who wants to engage when you ask about a team who’s traded a top 5 prospect with revenue of $200 million with the climate of Minnesota in the last 2 years? It’s exhausting.

I thought we were on the same page at the start of the offseason. I even remember vividly you would have spent top dollar on a free agent and have a budget of $135 million! Where’s that person these days? Same old, same old, MLR...

Very few fans on this site are making absurd asks. The vast majority is asking for one bold move. Just one to supplement a 101 win team who will have unrealized revenue not seen before at Target Field.

 

You misrepresented what I said. Show me where I said $200M in revenue. I said equal or less revenue than the Twins every time I asked. Why? Because revenue has changed substantially over the years and I was being fair to allow for a reasonable comparison as revenue changed. Also, because I knew someone would bring up the Cardinals, Giants or some other team with far more financial resource and that comparison makes no sense. To ask for examples form a subset of teams in a similar position is business analytics 101. 

 

I welcome your explanation as to why asking for meaningful examples it is exhausting or if you prefer why examples of teams with $60M or $90M or $180M of incremental revenue is an equivalent example. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Then after two years, Bumgarner gauges the market and decides whether he should opt out, or not. Either way, after the Twins contract, Bumgarner finally takes his team-friendly deal in Arizona, because money is not Bumgarner’s primary motivation, remember?

I mean, we just saw this with Gerrit Cole a week ago, no? Cole was dead set on signing with a California team, telling his teammates as much, until New York showed enough interest in Cole that he was forced to listen.

And Cole’s family is from Southern California to boot.

“What if Arizona isn’t in position to sign Bumgarner in two years?” Then he takes the below market contract at that time instead. That’s what.

 

So you are saying he should chose to come here for more money and then not care if it cost him a pile of money to opt out and go to Arizona? Of course, players never get injured where Arizona would not want him at all. I mean that never happens, right?

[prouster]

FWIW, here is Bumgarner himself on the subject (via MLBTR):

 

“It was the No. 1 place for me,” the 30-year-old said of Arizona (via Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group). “I did tell (my agent) that. We talked about that often.”

 

Once the Diamondbacks showed serious interest, Bumgarner revealed that he “was done” looking for a team. Bumgarner entered free agency reportedly looking for a guarantee of $100MM or more. While he’s not going to reach that total in the desert, perhaps he would have had he signed elsewhere. He stated Tuesday that “we definitely left some money on the table. You can say that.”

 

I think it’s perfectly reasonable to assume a player of Bumgarner’s pedigree can go to the team of his choice, say he wants to get a deal done, then get the deal done.

 

But I guess it makes some people feel better if they refuse to accept the ordinary truth that people are complicated and make choices that don’t always make total sense to others.

[yarnivek1972]

All this underscores two things:

 

Small/“unattractive” market teams need to draft and develop pitching. High end pitching.

 

If they can’t, they sure as hell better be willing to trade TOP prospects to get it.

 

Simply stated, there are three ways to get top pitchers. Develop, trade, free agent. If a team does none of those things, they are doomed to perpetual mediocrity.

[USAFChief]

All this underscores two things:

 

Small/“unattractive” market teams need to draft and develop pitching. High end pitching.

 

If they can’t, they sure as hell better be willing to trade TOP prospects to get it.

 

Simply stated, there are three ways to get top pitchers. Develop, trade, free agent. If a team does none of those things, they are doomed to perpetual mediocrity.

It also demonstrates, to me, the folly of "wait until you're really good to get really good players."

 

You sign those FAs, and make those trades, when you can. Because they probably won't be available if you wait around for the "perfect" time.

[Mike Sixel]

All this underscores two things:

 

Small/“unattractive” market teams need to draft and develop pitching. High end pitching.

 

If they can’t, they sure as hell better be willing to trade TOP prospects to get it.

 

Simply stated, there are three ways to get top pitchers. Develop, trade, free agent. If a team does none of those things, they are doomed to perpetual mediocrity.

Well, they haven't used a first round pick on a pitcher yet..... Ace or no ace. There aren't many very good pitchers on bad teams to trade for. So I'm at a loss for how to fix it this year, given they did not acquire starters in previous years in enough numbers.

 

Missing out on three straight top ten picks is a killer.

[Major League Ready]

Maybe a comparison of what the other playoff teams that did not get Cole have done so far this off-season will make people feel a little better. I would think the off-season is not over for any of these teams.

 

Dodgers – Signed Blake Treinen

 

Nationals – Lost Rendon / No adds / resigned Gomes& Kendrick

 

Astros – Lost Cole & Miley / resigned Joe Smith and signed Garneau (650K)

 

Rays – Lost Garcia & DeArnaud

 

Brewers – Lost Grandal & Moustakis & Lyles / Picked up Garcia & Lindbloom

 

A’s – Lost Treinen and Anderson / Resigned Diekman

 

Braves – Signed Will Smith / Cole Hamels / DeArnaud / Resigned Oday & Culbertson

[prouster]

Well, they haven't used a first round pick on a pitcher yet..... Ace or no ace. There aren't many very good pitchers on bad teams to trade for. So I'm at a loss for how to fix it this year, given they did not acquire starters in previous years in enough numbers.

 

Missing out on three straight top ten picks is a killer.

They picked Stewart, Jay, and Berrios in the first round/comp A in recent years. So they have drafted pitching (not to mention on the other bonus pool pitchers they’ve taken).

 

I agree with your last point that missing on some of those high picks has really hindered things.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, after this date last year, through spring training, the Twins made the following MLB moves:

 

1. Signed Nelson Cruz

2. Signed Blake Parker

3. Signed Martín Pérez

4. Signed Marwin Gonzalez

 

That's some activity, but I'm not sure what it means for our current pursuit of high-end pitching. I loved Cruz but I'm not sure there's an exciting FA SP equivalent left.

 

And if we have to rely on trading for MLB talent, those are still uncharted waters for our FO.

 

(And this isn't a knock on anyone, it's just a standard-issue fan anxiety post. )

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

So you are saying he should chose to come here for more money and then not care if it cost him a pile of money to opt out and go to Arizona?

Then he chooses Minnesota’s higher offer and makes his “pile of money” in Minnesota, correct?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They picked Stewart, Jay, and Berrios in the first round/comp A in recent years. So they have drafted pitching (not to mention on the other bonus pool pitchers they’ve taken).

I think he was referring to the current front office, and those 3 guys were taken by the previous one.

 

Admittedly it's only been 3 drafts for the current FO! Although they have all seemed to lean toward position players.

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe a comparison of what the other playoff teams that did not get Cole have done so far this off-season will make people feel a little better. I would think the off-season is not over for any of these teams.

 

Dodgers – Signed Blake Treinen

 

Nationals – Lost Rendon / No adds / resigned Gomes& Kendrick

 

Astros – Lost Cole & Miley / resigned Joe Smith and signed Garneau (650K)

 

Rays – Lost Garcia & DeArnaud

 

Brewers – Lost Grandal & Moustakis & Lyles / Picked up Garcia & Lindbloom

 

A’s – Lost Treinen and Anderson / Resigned Diekman

 

Braves – Signed Will Smith / Cole Hamels / DeArnaud / Resigned Oday & Culbertson

Nearly all of those teams were better set up going into the off season. And, I'm interested in this team getting better.

 

And to pick a nit, the Nationals brought back Strasburg....on a huge free agent deal.

 

There is limited supply of the type of player this team needs, which shrinks nearly daily. I am still predicting Ryu is here, but I am beginning to question myself....

[Mike Sixel]

I think he was referring to the current front office, and those 3 guys were taken by the previous one.

 

Admittedly it's only been 3 drafts for the current FO! Although they have all seemed to lean toward position players.

Correct, the current FO has picked position players in round one. But, the previous FO missed on Stewart, Gordon, and Jay. Probably on Gordon, there is still hope on him at least.

[gocgo]

Basically, what I read is that we are forced to look within the organization to fill the gaps.

[prouster]

Correct, the current FO has picked position players in round one. But, the previous FO missed on Stewart, Gordon, and Jay. Probably on Gordon, there is still hope on him at least.

I see. My bad.

[MABB1959]

 

Which players have been let go for making comments?  Which players have had attitudes and were traded at the deadline?  Where does this stuff come from?

Torii was know to have an attitude.  Dozier spoke out and was gone and someone else the year before him when they gave up on the Twins by the trade deadline.  We have had players that were what I consider passionate Gomez and others about the game labeled as cocky.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You misrepresented what I said. Show me where I said $200M in revenue. I said equal or less revenue than the Twins every time I asked. Why? Because revenue has changed substantially over the years and I was being fair to allow for a reasonable comparison as revenue changed. Also, because I knew someone would bring up the Cardinals, Giants or some other team with far more financial resource and that comparison makes no sense. To ask for examples form a subset of teams in a similar position is business analytics 101. 

 

I welcome your explanation as to why asking for meaningful examples it is exhausting or if you prefer why examples of teams with $60M or $90M or $180M of incremental revenue is an equivalent example. 

I read his "$200 mil revenue and climate in 2 years" comment as an exaggeration. But I'll ask both him and you to keep this more about baseball and less about other posters.

 

There's not a complete absence of aggressive moves by similar revenue teams as the Twins. If you don't like the Cardinals, off the top of my head:

 

- I know that the Diamondbacks have had similar revenue figures as the Twins at Forbes and they've signed Greinke and now Bumgarner (and traded a top ~100 prospect a few months ago too);

 

- the White Sox had less revenue at Forbes the year they signed Abreu out of Cuba, and have equal revenue now when they signed Grandal, both larger FA guarantees than the Twins have ever handed out (and FWIW, the ChiSox apparently offered more for Wheeler than the Twins have ever offered a FA, although I'll withhold full credit until they actually complete a deal like that!);

 

- the Brewers have traded top prospects multiple times (and signed Cain for longer/more than any Twins FA contract).

 

Examples of aggressive trading abound, from Cleveland trading top prospects multiple times, and the Royals too (including a top 5-10); even the A's have traded a top 5.

 

And, I can't stress this enough, this is isn't a knock on the Twins as much as it is work that is yet to be done.

[Major League Ready]

 

Then he chooses Minnesota’s higher offer and makes his “pile of money” in Minnesota, correct?

 

Are you saying the plan is to pay his so much for 2 years that the other 3 years don't matter?

 

The bottom line is any opt out strategy relies on him staying healthy and AZ being in the market for a SP. Why? For the possibility he might make a little more. Of course, he has to go somewhere he does not want to be for two years and move again in two years. The problem with that logic is that he already said he left money on the table because he really wants to be in AZ so all you have done is spun a different scenario of pay him more so that he will come here.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Are you saying the plan is to pay his so much for 2 years that the other 3 years don't matter?

Yes, that is what I am saying. Offer him something he can’t refuse, like the Yankees did with Cole.

 

all you have done is spun a different scenario of pay him more so that he will come here.

Yes?

 

 

I’m addition, I think the “health concern” is a crutch. It’s like a sports version of the fortune cookie joke: you can add the words “if he’s healthy” to just about every statement made about any player’s performance. In fact Pineda comes to mind as much as anyone as someone who needs to stay healthy.

[Major League Ready]

 

I read his "$200 mil revenue and climate in 2 years" comment as an exaggeration. But I'll ask both him and you to keep this more about baseball and less about other posters.

 

There's not a complete absence of aggressive moves by similar revenue teams as the Twins. If you don't like the Cardinals, off the top of my head:

 

- I know that the Diamondbacks have had similar revenue figures as the Twins at Forbes and they've signed Greinke and now Bumgarner (and traded a top ~100 prospect a few months ago too);

 

- the White Sox had less revenue at Forbes the year they signed Abreu out of Cuba, and have equal revenue now when they signed Grandal, both larger FA guarantees than the Twins have ever handed out (and FWIW, the ChiSox apparently offered more for Wheeler than the Twins have ever offered a FA, although I'll withhold full credit until they actually complete a deal like that!);

 

- the Brewers have traded top prospects multiple times (and signed Cain for longer/more than any Twins FA contract).

 

Examples of aggressive trading abound, from Cleveland trading top prospects multiple times, and the Royals too (including a top 5-10); even the A's have traded a top 5.

 

And, I can't stress this enough, this is isn't a knock on the Twins as much as it is work that is yet to be done.

 

I have always said there are a handful of position players. Where I have said it does not exist is in 5+ year SPs so don't change my position for your benefit. I have always conceded the Greinke signing . If you think the billion dollar TV contract they just signed does not make this an aberration we just disagree on that example. Bumgarner is a legit example. What can we learn from this example. Does the fact AZ was his 1st choice perhaps solidify the premise that they have to want to be here?

 

Show me examples of success stories. There is an awful lot of take my word for it and when I actually go look, the facts don't support these transactions were productive. For example, the As trade was an absolute disaster. You can't say the twins trying but losing out on prospects does not count and then say making a trade that is counterproductive counts.

 

The Royals won the WS after their big trade asset left. They got very lucky that the included player performed far better than anyone dreamed. Cueto was mediocre at best when he first came over and he was not the difference in a Royals 4-1 lashing of the Mets.

 

I am drawing a blank on Cleveland. When did they trade top prospects for SPs?

[Major League Ready]

 

Yes, that is what I am saying. Offer him something he can’t refuse, like the Yankees did with Cole.
 
Yes?


I’m addition, I think the “health concern” is a crutch. It’s like a sports version of the fortune cookie joke: you can add the words “if he’s healthy” to just about every statement made about any player’s performance. In fact Pineda comes to mind as much as anyone as someone who needs to stay healthy.

 

Yankees revenue in 2018 was $688M / Twins $269M. Do you really not understand the Twins can't follow the same practices as the Yankees? Do people who earn 50K have the same spending habits as people who make $150K? 

 

Going nuts for a guy who very probably a post-season separator is also quite different than a guy most people think is a mid rotation SP.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yankees revenue in 2018 was $688M / Twins $269M. Do you really not understand the Twins can't follow the same practices as the Yankees? Do people who earn 50K have the same spending habits as people who make $150K?

 

Going nuts for a guy who very probably a post-season separator is also quite different than a guy most people think is a mid rotation SP.

That's a little bit of a gray area. Spending on free agents isn't the same as discretionary spending for a household. These are investments.

There are certainly people who invest more aggressively than others who earn a higher income.