Red Sox fire GM Dave Dombrowski

[beckmt]

File under the what have you done for me lately.  Red Sox fired GM David Dombrowski (or relieved of duties, if you prefer that description).  Very surprising outcome, usually after east titles and a world series, you get a little more rope than that.  Must have been some tension here. 

[Blake]

 

File under the what have you done for me lately.  Red Sox fired GM David Dombrowski (or relieved of duties, if you prefer that description).  Very surprising outcome, usually after east titles and a world series, you get a little more rope than that.  Must have been some tension here. 

He was given an unlimited budget and managed to exceed it? (I vaguely recall something similar being said about John Madden)

[bird]

Like it did with the Tigers, Dombrowski's genie lamp ran out of wishes. As sweet as it is to spend your way to titles, the bill comes due when the price is untenable payroll obligations extending for years, slowly declining player value on the big club, and a farm system that at least last year ranked among the worst three or four in all of baseball. The Tigers, because of excellent draft position now after a handful of pathetic MLB seasons, have an average farm system. Unfortunately for them, Cabrera is on the books at about $30M per year for four more years! The Tigers start two players who were Twins rejects and probably would be DFA'd again today off their 40-man (Hicks and Goodrum). 

 

Thank you Falvine, for adhering to a strategy of simultaneously trying to increase asset values for both the MLB team AND the prospect pipeline while avoiding stupid contracts. 

 

And thanks, Mr. Dombrowski, for giving us today's Tigers. Yanks fans might start to thank you too, who knows?

[mickeymental]

seems like there must be more to the story. why, indeed.

 

per espn's marly rivera:

Some Yankees players were in shock to hear about Dave Dombrowski's firing, Gary Sánchez came up to me and asked: "Wow, did the Red Sox just fire their president? Didn't they just win the World Series? Why wouldn't they let him finish out the season?"

[Mike Sixel]

Like it did with the Tigers, Dombrowski's genie lamp ran out of wishes. As sweet as it is to spend your way to titles, the bill comes due when the price is untenable payroll obligations extending for years, slowly declining player value on the big club, and a farm system that at least last year ranked among the worst three or four in all of baseball. The Tigers, because of excellent draft position now after a handful of pathetic MLB seasons, have an average farm system. Unfortunately for them, Cabrera is on the books at about $30M per year for four more years! The Tigers start two players who were Twins rejects and probably would be DFA'd again today off their 40-man (Hicks and Goodrum).

 

Thank you Falvine, for adhering to a strategy of simultaneously trying to increase asset values for both the MLB team AND the prospect pipeline while avoiding stupid contracts.

 

And thanks, Mr. Dombrowski, for giving us today's Tigers. Yanks fans might start to thank you too, who knows?

They won the division more than once. In an off year they will win more than they lose. Why do people fall for this poor owner BS? The Twins haven't even won a playoff series yet, and have one starting pitcher under contract next year. Maybe we should wait to see if they are actually building a sustainable winner just a bit....

[Tomj14]

 

. 

 

Thank you Falvine, for adhering to a strategy of simultaneously trying to increase asset values for both the MLB team AND the prospect pipeline while avoiding stupid contracts. 

 

 

I understand there are no real bad one year contracts, but wouldn't giving Odorizzi a 18 million contract be considered stupid? (Not that they have yet)

[bird]

 

I understand there are no real bad one year contracts, but wouldn't giving Odorizzi a 18 million contract be considered stupid? (Not that they have yet)

 

No, not really. I think most would think that was a good move.

[bird]

 

They won the division more than once. In an off year they will win more than they lose. Why do people fall for this poor owner BS? The Twins haven't even won a playoff series yet, and have one starting pitcher under contract next year. Maybe we should wait to see if they are actually building a sustainable winner just a bit....

 

 

If Dombrowski gets credit for the Tiger's pennants, and he does, he also gets equal credit for them losing 100 games in 2019 with 15% of the schedule remaining and poor prospects for a recovery to even .500 ball in the next couple of years.

 

We obviously don't know if Boston is going to enter any kind of decline phase. You and I had many debates about the eventual costs the Tigers would pay for their period of success. I suppose many Tigers fans think it's worth today's price to have those great years, and I think that's great. Maybe Boston fans won't pay such a steep price, we don't know.

 

And Falvey may fail to execute on the asset-based sustainability strategy, but personally, I think his chances of success are higher and his chances of failure are lower. Especially in today's landscape. I wouldn't venture a guess on the timetable for  the Twins winning a playoff series, but very few of us thought it would happen in 2019, right?

 

I have zero idea what "falling for this poor owner BS" means. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Like it did with the Tigers, Dombrowski's genie lamp ran out of wishes. As sweet as it is to spend your way to titles, the bill comes due when the price is untenable payroll obligations extending for years, slowly declining player value on the big club, and a farm system that at least last year ranked among the worst three or four in all of baseball. The Tigers, because of excellent draft position now after a handful of pathetic MLB seasons, have an average farm system. Unfortunately for them, Cabrera is on the books at about $30M per year for four more years! The Tigers start two players who were Twins rejects and probably would be DFA'd again today off their 40-man (Hicks and Goodrum). 

 

Thank you Falvine, for adhering to a strategy of simultaneously trying to increase asset values for both the MLB team AND the prospect pipeline while avoiding stupid contracts. 

 

And thanks, Mr. Dombrowski, for giving us today's Tigers. Yanks fans might start to thank you too, who knows?

I think this is an over-simplification.

 

Drombowski was in Detroit a long time. He took over an organization that was pretty awful and turned it around to have a decade of sustained success, including 2 pennants and acquiring/developing a few Hall of Famers. He took over a much better club in Boston but he delivered some great results quickly too. Let's pause before we declare the Levine/Falvey approach to be superior, shall we?

 

Dombrowski also did quite well in trades for Detroit:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2016/12/boston_red_sox_dave_dombrowski_5.html

 

Yes, the Tigers biffed a couple contracts at the end, although only Cabrera really stands out as hamstringing the franchise, and of course it was Dombrowski who acquired him relatively cheaply in the first place and oversaw his performance jumping to new level. (And I wonder what ownership pressure was like at that point -- didn't Detroit ownership intervene to sign Prince Fielder a few years earlier, leaving Dombrowski to eventually clean up the mess, which he did fairly well.)

 

Worth remembering the Jordan Zimmermann disaster was on Dombrowski's successor (as was Mike Pelfrey ). Detroit was heading for a dry spell although it's possible that Dombrowski could have maneuvered to avoid the current depths. (Dombrowski's successor arguably screwed up by dumping Verlander's contract the way he did too.)

 

Yes, the minor league pipeline dried up and Dombrowski bears some responsibility for that, but after 15 years, even Falvey and Levine will likely have cycles like that. Hopefully they have multiple pennants and Hall of Famers on their resumes when it happens!

[beckmt]

I think with the number of bad contracts Boston has on the books, it may take a while to get back to the top.  Pitching is going to be expensive and that is Boston's shortcomings.  Plus at least one key cog is an FA after 2020 and it is going to take a boatload of money to sign him.  

With Dave you know what you are getting, the Red Sox are in better shape, since they can spend around the max a year and still make money. Sucess may elude them for a few years without very good buys and most of them correct, but Cashman and the Yankees have shown the model for this type of club.  You have to have good young talent to suceed and the Yankees have found that.  Boston still needs the pitching.

[beckmt]

A least some of those bad contracts are on Cherrington also, in fact more than Dombrowski, so let's not forget that this was a joint effort.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Dombrowski gets credit for the Tiger's pennants, and he does, he also gets equal credit for them losing 100 games in 2019 with 15% of the schedule remaining and poor prospects for a recovery to even .500 ball in the next couple of years.

I agree he had a hand in both, although more for the pennants than the 2019 club, as he's been out of the org since 2015. It's possible that Dombrowski's 2019 Tigers would still feature an aging gracefully Verlander, and something better for the Zimmermann money. Maybe instead of shedding payroll and playing guys like Goodrum, he would have been actively pursuing his next Scherzer/Cabrera/Polanco type acquisition.

[Vanimal46]

He won't be unemployed for long... He's the kind of GM I want. Someone who's not afraid to trade prospects in order to go for a world series title.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not a Red Sox fan at all, but I think they were pretty smart getting out ahead of this one. Dombrowski gutted the Red Sox farm and hasn't done anything to restock it. Some will say, "so what" because the Red Sox are big spenders, but even they are going to have a hard time re-signing all of their stud young core, a stud young core which should be pointed out wasn't good enough to make the playoffs. 

 

But more importantly, the Yankees have not gutted their farm AND they will be able to spend on par with the Red Sox. Dombrowski has put the Sox in position to be behind their division rivals for the foreseeable future.

 

If I was a Red Sox fan, I'd thank Dave for trading for Chris Sale and using him to win the WS last year, and curse him for extending Sale last spring and not getting extensions done with Betts, Benintendi and Devers while they were still affordable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think with the number of bad contracts Boston has on the books, it may take a while to get back to the top.  

It's tough to get to the top, even with a good team, but I don't think it's too bleak for Boston. Sale is still pretty great, health scare aside. JD Martinez too. Price is decent. The extension for Bogaerts looks fantastic so far.

 

Eovaldi was a reach, but he was a World Series winning hero and his contract shouldn't be crippling. 

 

As you allude to in your other post, Porcello, Sandoval, Pedroia, and Rusney Castillo are all still getting paid from the previous FO. But their deals are pretty much done by the end of 2019 or 2020 -- they'll still have the money to re-sign Betts if they want, or bid for a comparable superstar in FA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

a stud young core which should be pointed out wasn't good enough to make the playoffs. 

So not winning the AL East for 4 straight years is worth pointing out as a sign of core weakness? Tough crowd!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dombrowski gutted the Red Sox farm and hasn't done anything to restock it.

 

...

 

But more importantly, the Yankees have not gutted their farm

This might be another overstatement.

 

Dombrowski traded Moncada (and the injured prospect Kopech), but Sale is still arguably better (and of course won them a WS last year).

 

Beyond that, Dombrowski hasn't traded many/any prospects from Boston who have turned out elsewhere.

 

Of course, he hasn't add many prospects either, which hurts. NYY added Torres and Frazier (and Sheffield, who turned into Chapman) in the Chapman and Miller deals back in 2016, but of course Dombrowski didn't have that luxury as his team was beating the Yankees that year. Beyond that, there's not necessarily a big gulf between the two clubs -- at least not until some of the current Yankee top prospects come up and contribute. And that's just better amateur scouting/drafting/signing, as opposed to actively dealing good prospects.

[nicksaviking]

 

So not winning the AL East for 4 straight years is worth pointing out as a sign of core weakness? Tough crowd!

 

Not at all. I was pointing out that their stud young core didn't get it done this year and considering the Yankees have both a better farm, deeper pockets and their own stud young core, it looks like the Red Sox have been usurped and likely for the foreseeable future.

 

Even while they spend on free agents that team really needs to restock its talent pool, and Dombrowski has not proven to be particularly capable at that skill set.

[Vanimal46]

Let's talk about the Red Sox "gutting" the farm:

 

Chris Sale trade:

 

Yoan Moncada - finally living up to his #1 overall prospect hype 3 years after they traded him. 2 years service time now.

 

Michael Kopech - lots of hype, blew out his arm and missed 2019.

 

Luis Basabe - career .695 OPS in AA. Entering age 23 season in 2020.

 

Victor Diaz - out of baseball

 

Craig Kimbrel Trade:

 

Manuel Margot - 1.5 bWAR player the last 2 years. 6.1 total bWAR.

 

Javy Guerra - no bat SS. .665 career OPS in the minors.

 

Logan Allen - Now on Cleveland Indians.

 

Carlos Asuaje - now a 27 year old no bat 2B toiling in Arizona's system.

 

Drew Pomeranz trade:

 

Anderson Espinoza - out of baseball.

 

He actually did a good job keeping the young core together that we are familiar with. There were rumors in the past of trading Benintendi for Hamels. He was also reluctant to trade Boegarts and Devers as well.

 

Can anyone show me where he "gutted" the Red Sox farm system?

[Vanimal46]

Not at all. I was pointing out that their stud young core didn't get it done this year and considering the Yankees have both a better farm, deeper pockets and their own stud young core, it looks like the Red Sox have been usurped and likely for the foreseeable future.

 

Even while they spend on free agents that team really needs to restock its talent pool, and Dombrowski has not proven to be particularly capable at that skill set.

The Yankees don't have that deep of pockets unless they go above the luxury tax threshold again.

 

$164 million in commitments already for 2020. Compared to $149 million for the Red Sox.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2020/

[bird]

 

I think this is an over-simplification.

 

Drombowski was in Detroit a long time. He took over an organization that was pretty awful and turned it around to have a decade of sustained success, including 2 pennants and acquiring/developing a few Hall of Famers. He took over a much better club in Boston but he delivered some great results quickly too. Let's pause before we declare the Levine/Falvey approach to be superior, shall we?

 

Dombrowski also did quite well in trades for Detroit:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2016/12/boston_red_sox_dave_dombrowski_5.html

 

Yes, the Tigers biffed a couple contracts at the end, although only Cabrera really stands out as hamstringing the franchise, and of course it was Dombrowski who acquired him relatively cheaply in the first place and oversaw his performance jumping to new level. (And I wonder what ownership pressure was like at that point -- didn't Detroit ownership intervene to sign Prince Fielder a few years earlier, leaving Dombrowski to eventually clean up the mess, which he did fairly well.)

 

Worth remembering the Jordan Zimmermann disaster was on Dombrowski's successor (as was Mike Pelfrey ). Detroit was heading for a dry spell although it's possible that Dombrowski could have maneuvered to avoid the current depths. (Dombrowski's successor arguably screwed up by dumping Verlander's contract the way he did too.)

 

Yes, the minor league pipeline dried up and Dombrowski bears some responsibility for that, but after 15 years, even Falvey and Levine will likely have cycles like that. Hopefully they have multiple pennants and Hall of Famers on their resumes when it happens!

 

 

This is a very fair take. Back at the time when the pizza guy was clamoring to not take it with him when he was risen from Detroit, I argued that his approach, spending cash and depleting the farm system, was one way to try to skin the cat, and not the way I'd operate. Reason? Risk. The risk of making a mistake that eventually sets the franchise back, possibly for years. A Cabrera-sized mistake. The risk that you go "all in" and it doesn't work. You're right about his final trades. Things could have been much worse. We'll see about the Verlander haul. We'll see about the Moncada price in Boston. 

 

I think it's harder today to do the spend/mortgage the future type strategy. The risks are higher with established players, and the predictability with prospects has improved, thus lowering those risks, IMO. So, whereas it my have in many ways just have been different ways to skin the cat before, I now have come to believe the superior strategy is what I think our guys are trying to pull off: increase asset player) value simultaneously at both levels, actively manage (trade from surplus) the assets opportunistically with a LT goal of trading excess present value for better future value build through talent development, avoid paralyzing financial transactions, play the long game. We'll see if they're as smart as they think they are in the next couple of years.

 

I don't think Falvey and Levine are very likely to have putrid cycles with the farm system. At least I hope not. They appear to be investing heavily in development, spending in IFA, trading for prospects of value. I'd compare their strategy to that of Brian Cashman's without all the cash, man.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

The Yankees don't have that deep of pockets unless they go above the luxury tax threshold again.

$164 million in commitments already for 2020. Compared to $149 million for the Red Sox.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2020/

 

That's great, they have 15M less on the books. But that 15M isn't going to get them the pitching they need to over take the Yankees.

 

Even so, we've already seen that nearly every team in the league is now shying away from big ticket free agents in favor of developing their own cost effective roster. I don't think it's out of line to suggest that this is not Dombrowski's strength. So why aren't the Red Sox allowed to get on with modern baseball trends? Heck, they have Bill James and he basically was the impetus for new ideas and evolution.

[Mike Sixel]

The farm wasn't good before....read this for perspective:

 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/9/9/20856897/dave-dombrowski-fired-boston-red-sox-mlb

 

ninja'd by vanimal.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's great, they have 15M less on the books. But that 15M isn't going to get them the pitching they need to over take the Yankees.

 

Even so, we've already seen that nearly every team in the league is now shying away from big ticket free agents in favor of developing their own cost effective roster. I don't think it's out of line to suggest that this is not Dombrowski's strength. So why aren't the Red Sox allowed to get on with modern baseball trends? Heck, they have Bill James and he basically was the impetus for new ideas and evolution.

 

because they care more about making more millions than winning......that's why every team is doing it. Also, they've somehow convinced fans that this is a good idea. Money>winning.

[Tomj14]

 

No, not really. I think most would think that was a good move.

If the Twins can afford to spend 18 million on a guy that that didn't pitch 6 innings in 19 of his 28 starts and only twice went more than 6 innings compared to a Wheeler who went 7 11 times and I wouldn't give Wheeler 18 million, but I will stop since this is off topic because it hasn't been done yet.

[Vanimal46]

That's great, they have 15M less on the books. But that 15M isn't going to get them the pitching they need to over take the Yankees.

 

Even so, we've already seen that nearly every team in the league is now shying away from big ticket free agents in favor of developing their own cost effective roster. I don't think it's out of line to suggest that this is not Dombrowski's strength. So why aren't the Red Sox allowed to get on with modern baseball trends? Heck, they have Bill James and he basically was the impetus for new ideas and evolution.

Dombrowski has been doing this for so long we can find examples of high profile FA signings, draft/development, savvy trades for rising stars, rebuilds, and retools.

 

I don't think it's fair to suggest rebuilding a roster isn't his strength. Perhaps he doesn't want to do it, but he's capable.

 

He was the one who drafted/developed Verlander, and traded for Scherzer/Cabrera before they became generational stars.

 

His problem seems to be overpaying for his talent after they develop into stars. Which is really only possible to criticize in hindsight.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think with the number of bad contracts Boston has on the books, it may take a while to get back to the top.  Pitching is going to be expensive and that is Boston's shortcomings.  Plus at least one key cog is an FA after 2020 and it is going to take a boatload of money to sign him.  

With Dave you know what you are getting, the Red Sox are in better shape, since they can spend around the max a year and still make money. Sucess may elude them for a few years without very good buys and most of them correct, but Cashman and the Yankees have shown the model for this type of club.  You have to have good young talent to suceed and the Yankees have found that.  Boston still needs the pitching.

 

the Yankees traded for one of the biggest contracts in the game. Yes, they did a MUCH better job of buying IFA than the Sox, but the rules changed after DD got there.......not sure how he was supposed to catch up to them. 

 

The Sox had a bad farm system when DD took over. They traded exactly 1 very good player in the time DD was there. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is a very fair take. Back at the time when the pizza guy was clamoring to not take it with him when he was risen from Detroit, I argued that his approach, spending cash and depleting the farm system, was one way to try to skin the cat, and not the way I'd operate. Reason? Risk. The risk of making a mistake that eventually sets the franchise back, possibly for years. A Cabrera-sized mistake. The risk that you go "all in" and it doesn't work. You're right about his final trades. Things could have been much worse. We'll see about the Verlander haul. We'll see about the Moncada price in Boston. 

"We'll see" about the Verlander and Moncada trades? Verlander has been awesome for multiple years and the prospects marginal at best. Sale already won Boston a World Series, and the Red Sox have a 3B who is arguably better than Moncada with equal years of control remaining.

 

That's a pretty extreme standard of reserving judgement, no? Why not equally reserve judgement about the Falvey/Levine approach?

[bird]

 

Let's talk about the Red Sox "gutting" the farm:

Chris Sale trade:

Yoan Moncada - finally living up to his #1 overall prospect hype 3 years after they traded him. 2 years service time now.

Michael Kopech - lots of hype, blew out his arm and missed 2019.

Luis Basabe - career .695 OPS in AA. Entering age 23 season in 2020.

Victor Diaz - out of baseball

Craig Kimbrel Trade:

Manuel Margot - 1.5 bWAR player the last 2 years. 6.1 total bWAR.

Javy Guerra - no bat SS. .665 career OPS in the minors.

Logan Allen - Now on Cleveland Indians.

Carlos Asuaje - now a 27 year old no bat 2B toiling in Arizona's system.

Drew Pomeranz trade:

Anderson Espinoza - out of baseball.

He actually did a good job keeping the young core together that we are familiar with. There were rumors in the past of trading Benintendi for Hamels. He was also reluctant to trade Boegarts and Devers as well.

Can anyone show me where he "gutted" the Red Sox farm system?

 

 

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him. Kopech, even sidelined after TJ, has a higher FV with Fangraphs than our hotshot Graterol, and very few doubt his potential to become a Sale-like ace. And Basabe has a higher FV than two dozen Twins prospects we are excited about, including Rooker, Cellestino, Gordon, Raley, Wallner, Baddoo, Enlow, Balosovic...I like Chicago's chances of looking at that trade as lopsided in their favor, especially over the next 5 years or so.

[bird]

 

I agree he had a hand in both, although more for the pennants than the 2019 club, as he's been out of the org since 2015. It's possible that Dombrowski's 2019 Tigers would still feature an aging gracefully Verlander, and something better for the Zimmermann money. Maybe instead of shedding payroll and playing guys like Goodrum, he would have been actively pursuing his next Scherzer/Cabrera/Polanco type acquisition.

 

 

Don't you think ownership would have hamstrung him and prevented him from spending? Don't you think Scherzer/Cabrera type deals are a lot fewer and far between? He was not some trading savant.