Manny Machado

[gunnarthor]

Jeez, if the White Sox get him on an 8/250 deal, I'll scream.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25755553/manny-machado-8-year-offer-via-chicago-white-sox

 

That's a future HOFer locked in for his age 26-33 seasons. Twins should and could top that. They won't b/c ownership sucks.

[Vanimal46]

That's lower than what A Rod got from Texas nearly 20 years ago. Sad, really...

[Vanimal46]

Also, I know the Pohlads are a very easy target and deserve some criticism, but this is an MLB-wide issue. Everyone, I mean everyone could use Machado or Harper on their teams. Yet only 2-3 teams have shown interest in speaking with them. That is insane.

[Mr. Brooks]

That's lower than what A Rod got from Texas nearly 20 years ago. Sad, really...

How is 31.5 million per year less than 25.2 million per year?

Less total money, but that's not really important for a non pitcher. Machado will hit free agency young enough to get another big contract at age 33.

[Mr. Brooks]

Also, I know the Pohlads are a very easy target and deserve some criticism, but this is an MLB-wide issue. Everyone, I mean everyone could use Machado or Harper on their teams. Yet only 2-3 teams have shown interest in speaking with them. That is insane.

How do you know it's not Machado that has a small list of teams he's willing to sign with?

He's getting more money than he can spend, no matter where he signs. He's a young guy, he's probably interested in big lights, big city, world class restaurants and night life, not flyover country.

[Thrylos]

 

That's lower than what A Rod got from Texas nearly 20 years ago. Sad, really...

 

Not really: 

 

Machado: .282/.335/.487, 121 OPS+, 26 years old  (career after last season)
ARod: .309/.374/.561, 138 OPS+, 24 years old (career until FA)

 

ARod was much better, 2 years younger, and had (then) no character issues

 

 

[Vanimal46]

How is 31.5 million per year less than 25.2 million per year?

Less total money, but that's not really important for a non pitcher. Machado will hit free agency young enough to get another big contract at age 33.

$25.2 million in 2000 is the equivalent to $36.765 million in 2019 dollars with inflation.

[Vanimal46]

How do you know it's not Machado that has a small list of teams he's willing to sign with?

He's getting more money than he can spend, no matter where he signs. He's a young guy, he's probably interested in big lights, big city, world class restaurants and night life, not flyover country.

From what I'm reading that's probably the case. He wants to be a NYY but they're not interested in him. I'm still surprised there are no other teams in contact with him besides Philly and Chicago.

[Vanimal46]

Not really:

 

Machado: .282/.335/.487, 121 OPS+, 26 years old (career after last season)

ARod: .309/.374/.561, 138 OPS+, 24 years old (career until FA)

 

ARod was much better, 2 years younger, and had (then) no character issues

I'm not sure what this has to do with anything.

[Mr. Brooks]

$25.2 million in 2000 is the equivalent to $36.765 million in 2019 dollars with inflation.

If we are using inflation then Machado should get less. A lot less.

ARod was coming off a 10.4 WAR season, and was 2 years younger.

The fact Machado is even getting close to what ARod got, inflation adjusted, tells me that guys are getting paid.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not sure what this has to do with anything.

Because if you are going to adjust for inflation, then the better, younger player SHOULD get more money.

[Squirrel]

Jeez, if the White Sox get him on an 8/250 deal, I'll scream.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25755553/manny-machado-8-year-offer-via-chicago-white-sox

 

That's a future HOFer locked in for his age 26-33 seasons. Twins should and could top that. They won't b/c ownership sucks.

I’ve been saying this in the off-season news thread. We will never win as we have not and will not do enough. Sox are up and coming, and Machado will anchor them for seasons to come, primed to take over when Cleveland does decline, and the Twins will continue to be also-rans without any top of the line star power.

 

And the bright lights of Chicago? Pffft ... hugely overrated. Minneapolis might be smaller, but there is plenty that is as good and some that is better than Chicago.

 

Pay him the money. Get him.

[Vanimal46]

2000 MLB league average:

 

.270/.345/.437 for a total of .782 OPS.

 

2018 MLB league average:

 

.248/.318/.409 for a total of .729 OPS.

 

They're both about 40 points above MLB average in BA, and A-Rod was higher than Machado was above MLB average for OPS.

 

At the end of the day we're talking about 2 great free agents that 30 teams should be thrilled to sign. A Rod signed relatively quickly, Machado is having a hard time finding a formal offer from a team.

[SomeGuy]

 

That's lower than what A Rod got from Texas nearly 20 years ago. Sad, really...

How is it sad that he is sitting on an offer for the 4th largest contract in MLB history? 

 

He will continue to negotiate and hope for a larger one but he has that in his back pocket waiting for his signature.

 

2 more seasons and it might be Mookie Betts and Trout competing for contracts in Free Agency.  Those are 2 players that actually deserve the richest contracts in history.

[markos]

 

If we are using inflation then Machado should get less. A lot less.
ARod was coming off a 10.4 WAR season, and was 2 years younger.
The fact Machado is even getting close to what ARod got, inflation adjusted, tells me that guys are getting paid.

MLB overall revenue is literally 3X what it was in 2001. So as a percentage of overall revenue, ARod's contract today would be something like $75M/yr. 

[mlhouse]

Like Machado is going to go to the Minnesota Twins.  The value of playing in Chicago, Boston or New York, San Fransisco or LA is at least as much as his pay check.  Florida and Texas teams do not have state income taxes.  

 

Sports wise, we are provincial with the added "bonus" of being a high tax state with a bad climate.  That alone adds at least $10+ million to the cost the Twins have to go over those teams.

 

If you were a high end athlete and could choose where to play, do you go to Minneapolis or New York....

[Squirrel]

 

Like Machado is going to go to the Minnesota Twins.  The value of playing in Chicago, Boston or New York, San Fransisco or LA is at least as much as his pay check.  Florida and Texas teams do not have state income taxes.  

 

Sports wise, we are provincial with the added "bonus" of being a high tax state with a bad climate.  That alone adds at least $10+ million to the cost the Twins have to go over those teams.

 

If you were a high end athlete and could choose where to play, do you go to Minneapolis or New York....

How is playing in those cities more value? I get New York, but I don't get it for Chicago. Why not Houston on that list? How is playing for the White Sox more value? Their fanbase is considerably smaller. Their coverage is much less than the Cubs. The city itself is not that great ... and I say that as a 19-year resident. Anything the White Sox offer, the Twins can offer.

[Shaitan]

A questionable character player on the White Sox? Seems like a great fit.

[Dman]

If the White Sox get him I am going to be jealous.  He should jump start their rebuild.  They Still have Abreau and Jimenez is likely up next year.  They have young pitching that if not ready this year should be ready next year.  They have good young talent not too far away. Having Manny in the lineup should really help and they get him in his prime years as well.  It is a steep price but I think they would be paying it at the right time as they have cheap young talent coming up so they will have room for that salary for at least the next four to five years without sweating it too much.

[cmoss84]

Offering a 5/200 deal might be ideal. 40/year too tough to turn down for Manny, and we get him age 26-31...in time for him to get another large deal. I would be shocked if multiple teams do not offer this kind of a contract. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

That's lower than what A Rod got from Texas nearly 20 years ago. Sad, really...

 

Forgetting about inflation, A-Rod was significantly better than Machado when he became a free agent too. But yes, with today's economics (meaning national TV rankings), I think 8/250 is more than fair... 

[markos]

 

Forgetting about inflation, A-Rod was significantly better than Machado when he became a free agent too. But yes, with today's economics (meaning national TV rankings), I think 8/250 is more than fair... 

If you adjust for MLB revenue growth, 8/250 is about 40% of the AAV value of ARod's deal. It would be significantly less than deals signed by other prominent free agents of that time period, like Manny, Giambi, Griffey.

[howieramone2]

 

Also, I know the Pohlads are a very easy target and deserve some criticism, but this is an MLB-wide issue. Everyone, I mean everyone could use Machado or Harper on their teams. Yet only 2-3 teams have shown interest in speaking with them. That is insane.

No doubt the Cano, Greinke, and Stanton deals have scared teams off. Teams do not want to get stuck on the back end of these deals. Remember how happy this board was with Mauer's contract. There have been fundamental changes in free agency, and the situation remains fluid. It's not going to be over until the fat lady signs.

[howieramone2]

 

How is playing in those cities more value? I get New York, but I don't get it for Chicago. Why not Houston on that list? How is playing for the White Sox more value? Their fanbase is considerably smaller. Their coverage is much less than the Cubs. The city itself is not that great ... and I say that as a 19-year resident. Anything the White Sox offer, the Twins can offer.

Anything the White Sox and Twins can offer, most other teams can also. 

[Squirrel]

Anything the White Sox and Twins can offer, most other teams can also.

 

Then let the other teams do it. The point is, if the White Sox can land him, so can we. I’m fine passing on him, but not so the White Sox can get him. That will be a game changer for them, and I don’t like the odds of us becoming also-rans to them with him anchoring their soon Ready up and comers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No doubt the Cano, Greinke, and Stanton deals have scared teams off. Teams do not want to get stuck on the back end of these deals.

In 2 of your 3 examples, the signing team did NOT get stuck with the back end of the deal. (And the third, Greinke, could possibly be moved too, but for a no-trade clause.)

 

I don't think those level of deals are necessarily scary, for the right players.

[SomeGuy]

The Texas Rangers are still paying Prince Fielder for two more seasons.  There are very valid reasons for not wanting to sign someone for the length/value that Machado wants.  That is an insane amount of time and money to guarantee to one player.  The Angels have 3 more seasons of Albert Pujols to look forward to, 29M per season for replacement level production.

 

It is bad for baseball if a team gets bogged down by a bad signing and is forced to wait it out.  Think of how much different the Mariners would have been able to approach the last couple seasons (and this season) if they weren't hampered by Felix Hernandez's bad contract.  Almost 20% of their payroll was taken up by a 5.55 ERA, he was demoted to the bullpen and might end up just being released.  They can't even dump him for future talent, just gotta wait it out.

[TheLeviathan]

Anything less than 300M is a bargain.  

 

I don't understand why people are arguing Van's point about this deal relative to A-Rods.  It is very clearly a fraction of the value given the context of baseball.  And the reasoning why should be plainly evident.  If it's not, let me tell you about what's coming a few years from now with this thing called the "CBA"....

[Mike Sixel]

Why is it better for the money to sit in the owner's pockets, than be spent on players? How does that help the sport at all? There is plenty of money to sign him. And others. And cano was worth every penny. The Mariners did a terrible job building around him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Texas Rangers are still paying Prince Fielder for two more seasons.  There are very valid reasons for not wanting to sign someone for the length/value that Machado wants.  That is an insane amount of time and money to guarantee to one player.  The Angels have 3 more seasons of Albert Pujols to look forward to, 29M per season for replacement level production.

Fielder was 2 years older when he signed that deal than Machado is now -- and Texas didn't sign him, Detroit did. Neither team is paying 100% of the back end of the contract (in fact, insurance is probably paying a portion too).

 

Pujols was SIX years older (32) than Machado is now. An eight year deal for Machado now would run through his age 33 season.

 

And both Fielder and Pujols were 1B/DH.

 

There are arguments against deals, but you're not talking apples-to-apples here. Machado is a 26 year old 3B/SS. Getting him on a contract similar to Fielder, Pujols, or even a 31 year old Robinson Cano, would almost certainly be a good deal.