Article: 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospect List: 1-5

[Thrylos]

 

. It’s exciting to think that the Twins could have a 20 year old starter. Can’t remember the last time that happened.

 

It was a long long time ago.  Even Santana and Liriano were 21 each when they started a game with the Twins.  El Guapo pitched in relief as a 19 year old in the 1990s but you have to go all the way to 1971 for a 20 year old to make a start with the Twins.  He is hereby circled, in his second season with the Twins.  Stated as a 19 year old in 1970.

 

Only 9 times since the Twins moved to Minnesota have started 20 year old or younger.  And only 7 pitchers.  Here they are:

Bert Blyleven in '71 20
Bert Blyleven in '70 19 
Tom Hall in '68 20
Jim Olom in '66 20
Dave Boswell in '65 20
Dave Boswell in '64 19 
Jim Roland in '63 20
Jim Manning in '62 18
Gerry Arrigo in '61 20

[Heezy1323]

 

This. It is NOT natural for a still growing person to throw that hard.The growth plates and ligaments are still tender. In nearly every single case of young flamethrowers they will need TJ eventually. 

A few things worth mentioning regarding this...

 

1) Graterol is almost certainly done growing, so growth plates are not an issue.

2) Age does not appear to be related to the likelihood of UCL reconstruction in most studies that I am aware of. The UCL is certainly fully formed by this time, and doesn't change considerably in it's constitution after probably 12-13 years of age.

3) Fastball velocity does not appear to be related to likelihood of undergoing TJ

4) About 15% of minor league and 25% of major league pitchers have undergone TJ (so 'nearly every single case' is probably a bit of an overstatement).

 

Here is a portion of an article abstract from the Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery in 2016 (Volume 25, Issue 4, April 2016, Pages 671-675 Keller et al.)

 

 

Background

The number of Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers requiring ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstructions is increasing. Recent literature has attempted to correlate specific stresses placed on the throwing arm to risk for UCL injury, with limited results.

 

Methods

Eighty-three MLB pitchers who underwent primary UCL reconstruction were evaluated. Pitching velocity and percent of pitch type thrown (fastball, curve ball, slider, and change-up) were evaluated 2 years before and after surgery. Data were compared with control pitchers matched for age, position, size, innings pitched, and experience.

 

Results

The evaluation of pitch velocity compared with matched controls found no differences in pre-UCL reconstruction pitch velocities for fastballs (91.5 vs. 91.2 miles per hour [mph], P = .69), curveballs (78.2 vs. 77.9 mph, P = .92), sliders (83.3 vs. 83.5 mph, P = .88), or change-ups (83.9 vs. 83.8 mph, P = .96). When the percentage of pitches thrown was evaluated, UCL reconstructed pitchers pitch significantly more fastballs than controls (46.7% vs. 39.4%, P = .035). This correlated to a 2% increase in risk for UCL injury for every 1% increase in fastballs thrown. Pitching more than 48% fastballs was a significant predictor of UCL injury, because pitchers over this threshold required reconstruction (P = .006).

 

Conclusion

MLB pitchers requiring UCL reconstruction do not pitch at higher velocities than matched controls, and pitch velocity does not appear to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction. However, MLB pitchers who pitch a high percentage of fastballs may be at increased risk for UCL injury because pitching a higher percent of fastballs appears to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction.

 

 

I recognize it is wordy, but basically it showed no directly correlation between fastball velocity and TJ surgery. It did, however, show a relationship between percentage of fastballs and TJ. Other studies have shown similar results, with some studies conflicting. As always, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

 

 

Edited July 14, 2018 by Heezy1323

[nater79a]

Seen some comments here on about Kirilloff's arm strength, so...

 

I recently posted a question to MLB Pipeline Inbox about the long term defensive fit for the young Twins outfielders Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker.

 

Here is what they responded with.  Check it out...kind of interesting.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/inbox-minnesota-twins-outfield-prospects/c-284303436?tid=151437456

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

A few things worth mentioning regarding this...

 

1) Graterol is almost certainly done growing, so growth plates are not an issue.

2) Age does not appear to be related to the likelihood of UCL reconstruction in most studies that I am aware of. The UCL is certainly fully formed by this time, and doesn't change considerably in it's constitution after probably 12-13 years of age.

3) Fastball velocity does not appear to be related to likelihood of undergoing TJ

4) About 15% of minor league and 25% of major league pitchers have undergone TJ (so 'nearly every single case' is probably a bit of an overstatement).

 

Here is a portion of an article abstract from the Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery in 2016 (Volume 25, Issue 4, April 2016, Pages 671-675 Keller et al.)

 

 

Background

The number of Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers requiring ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstructions is increasing. Recent literature has attempted to correlate specific stresses placed on the throwing arm to risk for UCL injury, with limited results.

 

Methods

Eighty-three MLB pitchers who underwent primary UCL reconstruction were evaluated. Pitching velocity and percent of pitch type thrown (fastball, curve ball, slider, and change-up) were evaluated 2 years before and after surgery. Data were compared with control pitchers matched for age, position, size, innings pitched, and experience.

 

Results

The evaluation of pitch velocity compared with matched controls found no differences in pre-UCL reconstruction pitch velocities for fastballs (91.5 vs. 91.2 miles per hour [mph], P = .69), curveballs (78.2 vs. 77.9 mph, P = .92), sliders (83.3 vs. 83.5 mph, P = .88), or change-ups (83.9 vs. 83.8 mph, P = .96). When the percentage of pitches thrown was evaluated, UCL reconstructed pitchers pitch significantly more fastballs than controls (46.7% vs. 39.4%, P = .035). This correlated to a 2% increase in risk for UCL injury for every 1% increase in fastballs thrown. Pitching more than 48% fastballs was a significant predictor of UCL injury, because pitchers over this threshold required reconstruction (P = .006).

 

Conclusion

MLB pitchers requiring UCL reconstruction do not pitch at higher velocities than matched controls, and pitch velocity does not appear to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction. However, MLB pitchers who pitch a high percentage of fastballs may be at increased risk for UCL injury because pitching a higher percent of fastballs appears to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction.

 

 

I recognize it is wordy, but basically it showed no directly correlation between fastball velocity and TJ surgery. It did, however, show a relationship between percentage of fastballs and TJ. Other studies have shown similar results, with some studies conflicting. As always, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

 

I love reading your posts...

 

I learned something today. Thanks... I always thought the breaking pitches led to more TJS... bit surprised that it appears to be the other way around.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gonsalves walk rate this season is certainly concerning, but I really think people are under valuing him. His career minor league ERA is under 3. His K rate is over 9, and his career hit/9 is under 7. Even with the high walk rate this year, his career walk rate is just a bit over 3. He's got a lot of potential, and certainly more than a mid rotation guy even if that is his most likely outcome.

 

My guess on the walks is that they have him throwing that curve more in order to refine his command on the pitch. Maybe I'm wrong, but that, to me at least, would seem logical since the pitch is his weakest and is likely preventing him from being a top half of the rotation guy. It will be interesting to see if that walk rate is trending in a particular direction over the course of this season. 

[ashbury]

I recognize it is wordy, but basically it showed no directly correlation between fastball velocity and TJ surgery. It did, however, show a relationship between percentage of fastballs and TJ. Other studies have shown similar results, with some studies conflicting. As always, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

Completely aside from the topic discussed here, but I wonder if any MLB team's analytics department has ever added an MD with top notch analytical skills and a medical-generalist's mindset, to investigate any number of topics that would pay huge dividends if something was discovered - for instance along the lines of physiological cues that would guide drafting for talent development or for injury avoidance - I don't mean just sifting data on players, but locating studies that tell a team what new data to try to collect, things a non-medical layman might not know how to look for in the literature.

[Heezy1323]

 

I love reading your posts...

 

I learned something today. Thanks... I always thought the breaking pitches led to more TJS... bit surprised that it appears to be the other way around.

There are some studies that seem to show that a slider places more stress on the elbow, but I haven't seen any studies that directly relate slider % to need for TJ.

 

I think of this in a similar way to the current concussion situation. We are realizing that it's not necessarily the 'big hits' that cause CTE down the road, its the collection of numerous 'subconcussive blows' that end up being the problem. Similarly, it's (usually) not just a single pitch that injures a UCL, rather a collection of thousands of incidents of 'micro damage' done over time that eventually adds up to the ligament being insufficiently strong to support a pitcher's elbow. There may be one pitch that causes the ligament to finally 'tear', but IMHO the ligament is very rarely normal one pitch, then completely torn the next. 

[Heezy1323]

 

Completely aside from the topic discussed here, but I wonder if any MLB team's analytics department has ever added an MD with top notch analytical skills and a medical-generalist's mindset, to investigate any number of topics that would pay huge dividends if something was discovered - for instance along the lines of physiological cues that would guide drafting for talent development or for injury avoidance - I don't mean just sifting data on players, but locating studies that tell a team what new data to try to collect, things a non-medical layman might not know how to look for in the literature.

There are many MLB team physicians that are very active in baseball/throwing related research, though essentially all pro team physicians (as far as I am aware, anyway) maintain a practice that probably limits their ability to spend the needed time on such concerns specifically for an MLB team. However, there are many situations (Rush in Chicago, Hospital for Special Surgery and Columbia in NY, Kerlan-Jobe clinic in LA, Andrews Institute in Pensacola for example) where physicians are part of a team of athletic trainers, biomechanists, research assistants, surgeons/physicians in training, strength and conditioning coaches and others that are studying things like you mention. In most of these situations, this is academic research that is published in the geeky journals I read. I would assume there are some things going on within teams that produces proprietary information, but I'm not privy to that info. More likely (I suspect) is that the teams use the data produced by those mentioned above and apply it to their draft/development strategy as their internal people prefer. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I try to keep in mind that the higher up a player goes, the more and better information we have on them, and that also means there are more opportunities to poke holes in their game.

 

When you take a look at some of the guys who've made it as high as Triple A, you see players who've already had their biggest weaknesses start to get exposed. That just doesn't happen yet while they're at the lower levels. But it's not like anything done below Double A should be ignored, or that the guys at the higher levels are never going to get over those issues that have arisen, so it's difficult to weight those kinds of things.

 

Or it does and they then don't get to AA or AAA. 

 

This post fro Tom is very important... it is why we have to factor in the level, and age, and tools and so many other factors. 

 

Guys are often 5-tool prospects in the rookie leagues and even A ball, but as those things get exposed more and more, they may be a 3-tool player in AA and AAA... If they're still a four or five star prospect at AA And AAA, that's pretty exciting, because if they get to the big leagues as a three-star player, that is a very valuable player. Even a two-tool player can have value. 

 

That was a lot of rambling, but it's just the reality of prospect-watching. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Re: Kirilloff's arm, again anecdotal, but I did see him one hop a throw to 3rd to throw out a player trying to tag up from second on a fly to moderately deep right field on 6/10/18.  The runner was the opposing team's catcher, but it was a nice throw, and the scout seating next to me was impressed.  So that throw looked average. 

 

Yeah, I may have been watching Kirilloff this spring and I did see a couple of throws that, well, the release point wasn't good, so it took some bounces and rolled a bit. I'm sure he was still adjusting to throwing in game situations... Because watching on milb.tv, I've seen him make some very strong throws and talking to others who have seen him more regularly say that he's got a very strong arm.

 

I don't think he's going to be a great outfielder defensively. He's not as fast as Kepler, to be sure. But he's far from slow. If anyone has seen him run out a triple, he can really run. I'd almost compare it to Michael Cuddyer as a young player. He wasn't a sprinter, but once he got going, he could move. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Would it be possible to get an additional post showing each of Tom's, Seth's and Cody's individual top 40 lists so we can do a little side-by-side comparison?  

Could piece it together, I guess, based on the ranking below the capsules but that seems a little cumbersome for 40 slots.

 

Always find it fun and interesting to see how you guys rank the players differently.

 

 

My top 40:

1 - Royce Lewis

2 - Brusdar Graterol

3 - Alex Kirilloff

4 - Nick Gordon

5 - Trevor Larnach

6 - Stephen Gonsalves

7 - Akil Baddoo

8 - Brent Rooker 

9 - LaMonte Wade

10 - Blayne Enlow

11 - Wander Javier

12 - Travis Blankenhorn

13 - Lewis Thorpe

14 - Zack Littell

15 - Ryan Jeffers

16 - Yunior Severino

17 - Jose Miranda

18 - Tyler Wells

19 - Luis Arraez

20 - Jordan Balazovic

21 - Ben Rortvedt

22 - Jacob Pearson

23 - Lewin Diaz

24 - Jean-Carlos Arias

25 - Jake Cave

26 - Griffin Jax

27 - Andrew Bechtold

28 - Landon Leach

29 - Aaron Whitefield

30 - Tyler Jay

31 - Kohl Stewart

32 - John Curtiss

33 - Aaron Slegers

34 - Zack Granite

35 - Victor Tademo

36 Tyler Watson

37 - Felix Jorge 

38 - Charlie Barnes

39 - Chris Paul

40 - Gabriel Moya

41 - Jaylin Davis

42 - Trey Cabbage

43 - DeShawn Keirsey

44 - Ricky De La Torre

45 - Jovani Moran

46 - Edwar Colina

47 - Andrew Vasquez

48 - Lachlan Wells

49 - Zander Wiel

50 - Tyler Benninghoff 

 

Jean Carlos Arias is definitely my highest-ranked guy that didn't make our Top 40. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think that the issue here is that your #3 might be my #5.  I always refer to a #X starter in a championship level team, not the average baseball team.  And I don't see Gonsalves as a #3 starter in a champion.  That is Jose Berrios territory...

 

And then we have to remember that Les Straker was the #3 starter on the 1987 World Series championship team... Bet he didn't rank real high in prospect rankings (if they had been a big deal back then). And yes, things have changed over the last 30 years, but the concept is the same... The key is to get them to the big leagues, not worry too much about if a guy is a 3 or a 4 or a 5 starter. Get them there and hope they become the next Corey Kluber, or Jose Berrios... and then remember that sometimes it takes awhile to peak, like Carlos Carrasco or maybe Kyle Gibson. 

[Brandon]

Pitching about 5 innings every 7 days. You would think they would want to change this very soon if they think he’ll be that accelerated. It’s exciting to think that the Twins could have a 20 year old starter. Can’t remember the last time that happened.

Not sure about last time but i think Blyleven was 19 as a rookie.

 

How old was Liriano?

[jkcarew]

Not sure about last time but i think Blyleven was 19 as a rookie.

How old was Liriano?

See above. Thrylos gives a great summary of the youngest Twins starters.

[wyowib]

 

Re: Kirilloff: I am claiming that he has a Ben Revere arm based on what I saw.  Nothing anecdotal about it.  100% fact that he was double and triple bouncing balls from right to first this ST.  As well as taking horrible routes.  Plenty of eye witnesses in the back fields.  Not sure if the arm improved since then.  Will find out next time I see video.   Got any evidence other than hearsay that he has an average arm?

 

Re: Gonsalves:  Mea cupla, I got lazy.  I should have clarified that like Duffy, whose best pitch is the curveball, Gonsalves has an average at best fastball and his best pitch is a secondary pitch (of course it is his change up.)   The problem is that, like Duffey, if you do not have an above average at least fast ball with good control and command, you will not survive in a major league rotation for long.  Maybe Duffey is not a good comparable because he is a  righty. Still they both have average to below average fastballs.  Matter of fact Gonsalves's fastball command worsened this season.

In spring training?  I don't think that's fair.  He's a 20 yo seeing his first action after a year off due to surgery to his throwing arm.  And what you described is the literal definition of "anecdotal".