Would You Trade Eduardo Escobar?

[Mr. Brooks]

Sorry... I misunderstood "starter"

 

Given our current payroll ($130M-ish) and the amount of money we have committed for next year, plus the guys we are likely to retain via options and arbitration, we'll likely have about $65M to spend to get back to the $130M number

The Twins got a one time $50 million payment this year, half of revenue goes to payroll. That is why they spent $25 million more than usual this year.

I'd b expect it to be back down to the $105 million range next year.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, that will make free agents wanna play here.

I thought players wanted to win?

Wouldn't giving him a chance to win be a favorable look to free agents?

[Mr. Brooks]

Mike, in answer.... I would do everything I could to extend, even throw in a lake home. Then I would ask around if he wants to be traded, sure. I'd talk to him about it and let it be his choice is he wants to go FA instead of sign the extension. I'd ask if he had any team in mind he may want to go to, and I'd try to put him there. If that doesn't pan out, I would make a QO and take the draft pick. .

 

But, its a tough question. For both sides. I think Eduardo knows there are talented middle infielders coming up. Polanco, Gordon etc. That is three players for 2 spots, and that doesn't include Uhire, who becomes the IF bench next year....or maybe not. Though none of the kids hit like EE (except for Polanco late last year). But its a crowd, even with Dozier likely gone. In MLB, unless your name is Jeter, you would have to compete every year anyway. I actually think he might welcome the competition.

 

But I'd let him tell me what he wants. Then I'd act accordingly if possible.

What if he tells you he doesn't want to be QO'd or traded or extended? Then you just let him walk for nothing, because that's what he wants?

[Danchat]

I've watched this team too long to want to keep him through the end of the season. Trade him.

 

...and then offer him a 3 year deal once he hits free agency. Maybe we get him back, maybe we don't, but I'm hoping we can net something decent for him in a trade. But of course, if there's no demand for him, don't trade him.

[Danchat]

 

The Twins got a one time $50 million payment this year, half of revenue goes to payroll. That is why they spent $25 million more than usual this year.
I'd b expect it to be back down to the $105 million range next year.

I'm not quite sure what you're talking about, but I'd be willing to wager this team's payroll next year will be around $130-135M again. What's this $50M one time payment?

[Vanimal46]

I'm not quite sure what you're talking about, but I'd be willing to wager this team's payroll next year will be around $130-135M again. What's this $50M one time payment?

Mr. Brooks is right.

 

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/12/15/each-owner-will-get-at-least-50-million-in-early-2018-from-he-sale-of-bamtech/

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not quite sure what you're talking about, but I'd be willing to wager this team's payroll next year will be around $130-135M again. What's this $50M one time payment?

"The $1.5 BILLION dollar deal is also going to have a sizable impact in Major League Baseball. Why? According to SBJ’s Eric Fisher, each club will pocket approximately $50 million dollars from Disney’s acquisition of BAMtech."

[Mr. Brooks]

If payroll is north of $130 million next year, I'll leave town.

[jkcarew]

T, and that's why you make a QO so you get something back.

Trading him guarantees a prospect, and a chance to sign him besides. A QO guarantees a prospect (who will be further away), does NOT guarantee Escobar signs, and totally prohibits the chance of ending up with both Escobar and a prospect. Why would you do that? Because you really want Escobar and don’t think anyone would match the QO?

[Thrylos]

 

T, and that's why you make a QO so you get something back.

 

No, you get Escobar at $18 million a season, which is ridiculous, as that is Manny Machado money...   He will accept a QO

[Thrylos]

 

While nobody can say, I expect Lewis to debut in September next year.

 

in AA?

[Mr. Brooks]

in AA?

He's in high A now. If it takes him 15 months to move to AA, something went terribly wrong.

[jkcarew]

No, you get Escobar at $18 million a season, which is ridiculous, as that is Manny Machado money...   He will accept a QO

$18M is a lot...and more than Escobar should be able to command...especially if he regresses at all in the second half. But it’s not that close to what Machado will get, right?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Zach Cozart, who is actually a really good comp if you look at their careers, got 3/38 last offseason.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cozarza01.shtml

 

However Cozart is 2.5 years older than Escobar.

 

(Cozart didn't get a QO though)

Cozart had 16.6 career bWAR and was coming off a 5 bWAR season.

 

Escobar has 6.3 career bWAR and is only on pace for 3.8.

 

Also Cozart (for 3B) was likely considered an overpay the way the offseason developed.

[Thrylos]

 

$18M is a lot...and more than Escobar should be able to command...especially if he regresses at all in the second half. But it’s not that close to what Machado will get, right?

 

Machado might get $25.  That's close enough

[Thrylos]

 

 

He's in high A now. If it takes him 15 months to move to AA, something went terribly wrong.

 

He is in single A right now.  Cedar Rapids.  High A for the second half this season and first half of next and AA second half next season.

 

Even Buxton, who had better numbers btw, did not come up that fast.  Lewis is barely hitting north of .800 OPS.  Not bad, but not ready yet.  No need to rush him.

[Danchat]

 

"The $1.5 BILLION dollar deal is also going to have a sizable impact in Major League Baseball. Why? According to SBJ’s Eric Fisher, each club will pocket approximately $50 million dollars from Disney’s acquisition of BAMtech."

OK, thanks for the info. I wasn't doubting the report, rather the idea that the payroll is going to decrease by  around $25M. The argument does have a basis... but it would be bizarre to see so many MLB teams cut payroll next year, if other teams plan on doing the same.

[jkcarew]

He's in high A now. If it takes him 15 months to move to AA, something went terribly wrong.

So, you have him not only reaching AA, but conquering it, by age 20. To arrive in the Majors at age 20 and 3 months? All while learning to play SS which he never played until he was 17 years old????

 

I like the way you think!! (But I’d definitely call this a hope, not an expectation.)

[jun]

 

He's a free agent, why not trade him? You can sign him in the off season

You can pretty much forget about signing him if you trade him.

[Thrylos]

 

You can pretty much forget about signing him if you trade him.

 

Why is that?  

[jorgenswest]

Machado is getting several years. A qualifying offer is a one year deal. It isn’t close to comparable.

[Mr. Brooks]

OK, thanks for the info. I wasn't doubting the report, rather the idea that the payroll is going to decrease by around $25M. The argument does have a basis... but it would be bizarre to see so many MLB teams cut payroll next year, if other teams plan on doing the same.

Not all teams operate on a (mostly) strict 50% of revenue payroll. The Twins do.

 

It's quite a coincidence if they just happened to raise payroll but almost exactly the 50% of the Disney money they received, if it's completely unrelated.

[Mr. Brooks]

So, you have him not only reaching AA, but conquering it, by age 20. To arrive in the Majors at age 20 and 3 months? All while learning to play SS which he never played until he was 17 years old????

 

I like the way you think!! (But I’d definitely call this a hope, not an expectation.)

Yes, I do. This kid is special. He was the #1 overall pick. Mauer played a combined 135 games at A+ and AA before getting the call.

[jun]

 

Shop him and trade him for the best offer.  Then tell him you're calling him on the first day of free agency to ask him back.

Yeah try that, I am not sure if he's going to pick up the call though.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yeah try that, I am not sure if he's going to pick up the call though.

 

That's fine, that's his right as a FA.  But the future of the Twins requires them to at least explore moving him.

[jkcarew]

Yes, I do. This kid is special. He was the #1 overall pick. Mauer played a combined 135 games at A+ and AA before getting the call.

But nobody...nobody is saying Lewis has a hit tool comparable to what Mauer had coming up...and you have Lewis arriving almost one full year younger than Mauer was when he debuted.

[jkcarew]

That's fine, that's his right as a FA.  But the future of the Twins requires them to at least explore moving him.

Agreed he has the right to not pick up the phone, be he will...or his agent will. It’s not all that common for a player to return, but there is plenty precedent for where it does. And when it doesn’t, it’s not because the player had his feelings hurt. These are professional adults operating in a big-time, big-money business.

[jun]

 

and if he won't take an extension, because he wants to test FA, what would you do then?

Extend him as much as they can, show him the appreciation, tell him he is as important as Buxton or Sano to this team. If he still wants to leave, then let him go. At least they made all the efforts, therefore no regrets. That also shows other players how much this team values good work on and off the field.

[Riverbrian]

I'd try to extend him and I'd try very hard. 

 

I'd be saying extend him if he was hitting .222 right now.

 

If you fail to extend him. 

 

You trade him for the best offer. 

 

Then you try to sign him as a free agent. 

 

His agent will pick up the phone... but the Twins have to be be competitive. 

 

I have no idea what the market will be like. If last year was any indication... he might come cheaper than we think. 

[DocBauer]

Would I trade Escobar? Absolutely not. I'd be doing my best to extend him asap. I thought the 1 year deal was a mistake in the off season and looks to be a bigger mistake now. I'm not saying you don't answer the phone if someone calls and makes you a hell of an offer, but he's more valuable sticking with the team than almost anything he'd bring back in return. Look, he's one of my favorite players, but is a bit of a late bloomer, isn't a gold Glover (Though fine defensively), and isn't a consistent 20-30 HR bomber with a track record of doing so.

 

I really like Polanco. Adrianza is actually a decent utility guy when you look at last year and the past month. I've grown in to a fan and believer of Gordon, though I'm not as jazzed about an early promotion as some. But Dozier is going to probably be gone, even though I'm a supporter and think he's a class act. Sano is a question mark right now, no matter his talent and potential. The Twins are LOADED with solid to great infield prospects but they are all in A ball except Gordon.

 

This team needs Escobar to stay put. He could start at 3 positions for us, potentially, next season and provide the solid offense he showed in '14 and '15, or the excellent offense he's shown last year and this year. Or, in an ideal situation, he could be a super utility player who plays almost every day somewhere because Sano, Polanco and Gordon are your starters.

 

He stays. Absolutely!