Buxton Extension Talks

[amjgt]

Sounds like both sides are open to it...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/twins-byron-buxton-reportedly-interested-in-extension.html

 

I’d be happy with the two comp contracts the article used (basically - 5/30M), but I’d rather tack on another year at 12M, so 6/42M. Also, based on our lack of financial commitments from 2019 and on, I’d like it if the contract was very smoothed out. 6,6,7,7,8,8 or something like that.

 

The comments section is pretty interesting also.

[beckmt]

I think it will take more than that.  I would hope something like 7/$100/$120.  I want him to be here a while, and make it worth his while.

[amjgt]

Also, it’s intersting that the article cites fWAR, but the player links all go Baseball Reference pages.

[amjgt]

I think it will take more than that. I would hope something like 7/$100/$120. I want him to be here a while, and make it worth his while.

The more years the merrier as far as I’m concerned. The 5/30 examples actually were pretty good comps, so I don’t feel silly thinking that number is a reasonable starting point. Buxton is about 1.5 years younger than those guys when they signed. Not sure how that affects things... just saying.

[markos]

It would be a HUGE coup if the Twins could sign Buxton to a deal anything like the Inciarte or Herrera deal. Arguably a franchise altering move.

[70charger]

I’m glad to hear that both sides are open to it, and I’d love to see an extension happen, but 5/30 like the comps seems light on both dollars and years.

 

I’d push for at least a couple more years on that deal. Get a few seasons post team control.

[ewen21]

I am going to say something that will get slammed to the high heavens but I accept it.

 

I am not ready to anoint Buxton anything yet.  I have concerns about him, beginning with the fact that he plays very recklessly.  I think he has a tendency to be overly acrobatic and tries too hard to be a highlight reel guy.  Maybe this was because he wasn't hitting a lick.  NOw that he has a little bit, this is something he needs to get under control.  Hunter was a similar player and he made it to 40, but he more in control of his crashes.  Buxton plays like an injury waiting to happen.  I think he needs to get it under control a little.  I sure hope we don't see another crash like he had in his first game at New Britian.  He is a speed first guy and guys like that either break down or end up changing.  He reminds me of Jose Reyes a little and that concerns me.

 

The other thing is I am not totally convinced of his bat.  He has shown promise, but at the same time I have never seen a player look as bad as he has for stretches of time.  It seemed like he improved a lot, but I have to see him come out of the gate looking competent.  We have not had a CF hit in April for years and years.  Hicks was brutal and Buxton was actually worse last year.

 

Don't take this as being anti-Buxton.  It's just that when I read about him here it is as if people want to enshrine him in the HOF.  In due time, perhaps.  As of now?  The kid has a lot of growing to do.,  Just my two cents.   Obviously, I am looking at the other side of the coin.  I just hope that doesn't make me Satan around here.

[Vanimal46]

 

I am going to say something that will get slammed to the high heavens but I accept it.

 

I am not ready to anoint Buxton anything yet.  I have concerns about him, beginning with the fact that he plays very recklessly.  I think he has a tendency to be overly acrobatic and tries too hard to be a highlight reel guy.  Maybe this was because he wasn't hitting a lick.  NOw that he has a little bit, this is something he needs to get under control.  Hunter was a similar player and he made it to 40, but he more in control of his crashes.  Buxton plays like an injury waiting to happen.  I think he needs to get it under control a little.  I sure hope we don't see another crash like he had in his first game at New Britian.  He is a speed first guy and guys like that either break down or end up changing.  He reminds me of Jose Reyes a little and that concerns me.

 

The other thing is I am not totally convinced of his bat.  He has shown promise, but at the same time I have never seen a player look as bad as he has for stretches of time.  It seemed like he improved a lot, but I have to see him come out of the gate looking competent.  We have not had a CF hit in April for years and years.  Hicks was brutal and Buxton was actually worse last year.

 

Don't take this as being anti-Buxton.  It's just that when I read about him here it is as if people want to enshrine him in the HOF.  In due time, perhaps.  As of now?  The kid has a lot of growing to do.,  Just my two cents.   Obviously, I am looking at the other side of the coin.  I just hope that doesn't make me Satan around here.

 

It's fair to say you're not convinced of his bat. Hell, I'm not convinced either. It's hard to when he's only put things together for a couple of months. However, he provides soooo much value defensively that he's worth the money. Even if he never figures it out with the bat and he ends up a ~.700-.725 OPS player. 

[ewen21]

 

It's fair to say you're not convinced of his bat. Hell, I'm not convinced either. It's hard to when he's only put things together for a couple of months. However, he provides soooo much value defensively that he's worth the money. Even if he never figures it out with the bat and he ends up a ~.700-.725 OPS player. 

 

There is no arguing that.  Maybe it's me.

 

I have a paranoid fear of him getting injured.  When I first saw the kid running I just saw arms and legs flying everywhere.  Kind of reminded me of Jose Reyes and Reyes was oft injured.  He is also so much of a daredevil in the outfield.  It is great to see highlight reel catches but he hits walls HARD.  Hunter seemed to have a lot more awareness when it came to that.  Byron is like Evel Kenevel.

 

No one else is concerned about this?

[gunnarthor]

I think if the Twins ever want to lock him up cheap, they have to do it now. If he has the year I think he'll have (all-star, GG winner, top 10 MVP votes) his extension is going to be huge.

[ewen21]

He is massively important to this team.  Part of his development should include learning to pull in the reigns.  I like that Torii has an ongoing relationship with the kid.  I am certain Torii talks to him about this very thing.

 

So much was made of him and Sano.  Sano has his issues, for sure.  Buxton will hopefully learn and understand that his presence is vital and that his approach to playing outfield has to get a bit more under control.  Gary Maddox was a great fielder back in the day.  He was a whole heck of a lot more graceful and made things look effortless.  I would like to see more of that out of Buxton

[ewen21]

 

I think if the Twins ever want to lock him up cheap, they have to do it now. If he has the year I think he'll have (all-star, GG winner, top 10 MVP votes) his extension is going to be huge.

 

How huge?  I don't think he is going to get a ton if he is a low .700 OPS guy.  If he puts that together, then yes.  I think we need to be careful overstating his ability.  The Twins need to consider....what is he getting in the open market?

 

I would say 5/30 right now would be fine.  No need to go too much beyond that.  Give him those five years and lets see where he stands when that time is nearly up.

[Loosey]

 

I am going to say something that will get slammed to the high heavens but I accept it.

 

I am not ready to anoint Buxton anything yet.  I have concerns about him, beginning with the fact that he plays very recklessly.  I think he has a tendency to be overly acrobatic and tries too hard to be a highlight reel guy.  Maybe this was because he wasn't hitting a lick.  NOw that he has a little bit, this is something he needs to get under control.  Hunter was a similar player and he made it to 40, but he more in control of his crashes.  Buxton plays like an injury waiting to happen.  I think he needs to get it under control a little.  I sure hope we don't see another crash like he had in his first game at New Britian.  He is a speed first guy and guys like that either break down or end up changing.  He reminds me of Jose Reyes a little and that concerns me.

 

The other thing is I am not totally convinced of his bat.  He has shown promise, but at the same time I have never seen a player look as bad as he has for stretches of time.  It seemed like he improved a lot, but I have to see him come out of the gate looking competent.  We have not had a CF hit in April for years and years.  Hicks was brutal and Buxton was actually worse last year.

 

Don't take this as being anti-Buxton.  It's just that when I read about him here it is as if people want to enshrine him in the HOF.  In due time, perhaps.  As of now?  The kid has a lot of growing to do.,  Just my two cents.   Obviously, I am looking at the other side of the coin.  I just hope that doesn't make me Satan around here.

I'm not slamming you, but this is exactly the reason the Twins do it now and Buxton would do it now as well.  He plays the game extremely hard and WILL end up on the DL from time to time.  Buxton knows that and the Twins do. Your concerns about how good he will I will take with a grain of salt.  He has hit at every level, including the MLB.  The Twins will want to sign him to extension before he becomes perennial Gold Glove CF that is a superstar hitter.  Buxton wants this contract extension as insurance in case he gets an injury that is more than the 15 day variety or if on the super slim chance he doesn't continue to play like he did from July-September last year.  

 

Also, Jose Reyes was an outstanding player for the first 8-9 years of his career.  Locking up that type of talent is a good thing.

[markos]

 

There is no arguing that.  Maybe it's me.

 

I have a paranoid fear of him getting injured.  When I first saw the kid running I just saw arms and legs flying everywhere.  Kind of reminded me of Jose Reyes and Reyes was oft injured.  He is also so much of a daredevil in the outfield.  It is great to see highlight reel catches but he hits walls HARD.  Hunter seemed to have a lot more awareness when it came to that.  Byron is like Evel Kenevel.

 

No one else is concerned about this?

I completely share your concern with his playing style. 100%.

 

But if he really is considering a deal along the lines of Inciarte and Herrera, it is still worth the risk for the Twins to make that kind of offer. The commitment is small enough, so a worst-case scenario outcome with Buxton wouldn't negatively effect the franchinse (finacially) in any significant way. But the upside is huge, mostly in the opportunity to exend the years of team control beyond 2021.

[beckmt]

 

I think if the Twins ever want to lock him up cheap, they have to do it now. If he has the year I think he'll have (all-star, GG winner, top 10 MVP votes) his extension is going to be huge.

That is why I am as high as I am on the contract.  If he plays like he did the last 3 months last year, he is the one irreplaceable Twins player.  If he has a great year this year, he will be almost unsignable and be gone when his 6 years here are up.  Look at what Harper and Machado are looking at.  Around $400 for 10 years.  Twins cannot play in the neighborhood, that is why I hope they lock him up now for 7 years. 

[beckmt]

At 5/$30 if I am Buxton I believe in myself and roll the dice.  In fact if I feel greatly insulted by that offer, it may end the chances of me staying here long term.  

And yes, I consider 5/$30 an insult.

[beckmt]

On mlbtraderumors this morning Paul DeJong (less the 1 year service time) agreed to an extension with St. Louis that can max out at 8/$51.5.  He is good, but nowhere near the player that Buxton is.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think the 5/30 starting point is necessarily insulting to Buxton. (I'd guess you would want to start a little higher than that for inflation/pedigree, but it's in the ballpark.)

 

Buxton still has a lot of question marks that involve risk for both the team AND the player. He's been very streaky, still has a high K-rate, and his style of play (aggressive defense and baserunning) is more susceptible to injury than others.

 

He might prefer to bet on himself and his most recent streak (2nd half .246 isolated power), but I could also see a case where he might be willing to hedge against that for some security too. A 5 year deal (ignoring potential options) could still let him hit the open market entering his age-29 season.

[gunnarthor]

 

How huge?  I don't think he is going to get a ton if he is a low .700 OPS guy.  If he puts that together, then yes.  I think we need to be careful overstating his ability.  The Twins need to consider....what is he getting in the open market?

 

I would say 5/30 right now would be fine.  No need to go too much beyond that.  Give him those five years and lets see where he stands when that time is nearly up.

Depends on what we're trying to do. Are we only locking him up through his arb years? Or are we trying to buy out some FA years? Machado and Harper are going to blow up payrolls after this season.

 

Machedo made 16m in his last arb year. Josh Donaldson made 23m. Kevin Keirmeyer (sp) signed a longterm deal with the Rays that paid him 5, 8m and 10m for his final three arb years and then three FA years at roughly 12m each year (Buxton would be insane to take that offer). I don't think Buxton or his agent are going to give the Twins several cheap FA years. Maybe one. So if both sides just want to protect his next four years, sorta like Dozier, they could come to some sort of agreement that pays Buxton 30m or so and let him walk as a FA at 28. But I don't know how Buxton or his agent pass up free agency at 28 unless the Twins give him an incredible longterm deal and not just through his age 30 season.

 

 

[ewen21]

Machado and Harper are not getting 400M and 10 years. No way, no how. If they are going go hardline with that then A) they are bigger morons than I ever thought they will be on the sidelines watching just like these other FA "holdouts"

 

The idea that 30 million in guaranteed money is an insult to a player whose career OPS is under .700 boggles my mind. If he's insulted by that then offer him 35. Seriously

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On mlbtraderumors this morning Paul DeJong (less the 1 year service time) agreed to an extension with St. Louis that can max out at 8/$51.5.  He is good, but nowhere near the player that Buxton is.

DeJong is only guaranteed 6/26, though. Buxton would beat that guarantee easily, and could probably choose to forgo the team option years and still come to an agreement with the Twins.

[AZTwin]

On mlbtraderumors this morning Paul DeJong (less the 1 year service time) agreed to an extension with St. Louis that can max out at 8/$51.5. He is good, but nowhere near the player that Buxton is.

That’s actually a good comp. Dejong had good offensive stats. Could easily see something like Seth outlined (7/$75M)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It would be a HUGE coup if the Twins could sign Buxton to a deal anything like the Inciarte or Herrera deal. Arguably a franchise altering move.

With the same 2-3 team option years as Inciarte/Herrera, that would be an incredible deal for the Twins.

 

But would you do something like 5/35, without the team option years? That would give us 1 FA season, and let Buxton hit the market entering his age-29 season.

[Tomj14]

 

I completely share your concern with his playing style. 100%.

 

But if he really is considering a deal along the lines of Inciarte and Herrera, it is still worth the risk for the Twins to make that kind of offer. The commitment is small enough, so a worst-case scenario outcome with Buxton wouldn't negatively effect the franchinse (finacially) in any significant way. But the upside is huge, mostly in the opportunity to exend the years of team control beyond 2021.

I see no risk offering him up to 50 million dollars or more it is just money, and the Twins have pissed away why more money than that on guys with half the upside this guy has.

if they offered him 6/72 and he gets hurt big deal insurance will cover most of that it shouldn't affect payroll going forward, and if he gets no better it is still a great deal.  

The only risk I see here is offering him too little.

[Tomj14]

 

There is no arguing that.  Maybe it's me.

 

I have a paranoid fear of him getting injured.  When I first saw the kid running I just saw arms and legs flying everywhere.  Kind of reminded me of Jose Reyes and Reyes was oft injured.  He is also so much of a daredevil in the outfield.  It is great to see highlight reel catches but he hits walls HARD.  Hunter seemed to have a lot more awareness when it came to that.  Byron is like Evel Kenevel.

 

No one else is concerned about this?

I am not, it is better for him to get hurt then just suck. And if we get Reyes like results from him, just about any extension will be considered cheap.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not sure Harper won't get 400m from the Yankees or the Red Sox. Trout's contract has him making about 34m/year so that's the minimum right there. Harper will be 26 next year.  He wouldn't be nuts for asking for a 10 year deal. Stanton got a 13yr/325m deal that included some arb years. 

 

Machado won't be far behind.

[nicksaviking]

There's no doubt that even if the Twins waited and Buxton blew up this year they could still afford to give him an extension of some sort next year

 

However should he blow up this year and they give him a pricey extension, I don't know that they could afford to hand out too many more to guys like Berrios, Sano, Rosario, Polanco or whomever else they'd like to keep around. An elite defensive CF'er with a big bat? Whoa boy, look out that's going to cost a pretty penny.

[Kelly Vance]

I've seen enough of Buxton to know he is the real deal. He reminds me of Eric Davis from the 1980s Cincy Reds. Yeah, his style of play got him injured a lot too.  But a guy like Buck has to play his way. He can maybe learn to get a better jump so he doesn't have to dive at the end of his run so much, but he is an instinctive player who relies a lot on his unusual speed and has to stay that way. I'm not qualified to talk money but I think you sign him to six years and then tie up the rest of the outfield and I'd extend Dozier if he is willing. 

[USAFChief]

Get this done before it becomes difficult/impossible.

 

This is a no brainer.

[markos]

 

With the same 2-3 team option years as Inciarte/Herrera, that would be an incredible deal for the Twins.

 

But would you do something like 5/35, without the team option years? That would give us 1 FA season, and let Buxton hit the market entering his age-29 season.

I would do that. I think any deal with Buxton that extends team control is incredibly important to this team.  Even one season. I look at this organization, and there is a pretty nice wave of prospects in the low minors that should start reaching the big leagues in 2020-2021. It would be very nice to extend the number of seasons that Buxton and company are around so that the next wave (Lewis, Javier, et al) can just augment them rather than replace them.