Article: Winter Meetings: Reliever Roulette

[Han Joelo]

Where they were a year ago/recent transactions:

 

Joe Smith, just signed for 2 years and $15 million:

Signed by Toronto for 1 year/$3 million.  Traded to CLE for two prospects, one of whom is now 22nd on the Blue Jays list.

 

Brandon Kintzler, 2 years and $10 or $15 million:

minor league contract with the Twins (sorry, we all knew that)

 

Steve Cishek, 2/$12-$14 million

finishing a 2 year/$10 million contract he signed with Seattle, who traded him to TB.  An example of a "good" reliever contract?

 

Juan Nicasio, 2/$17 million

1 year/$3 million with the Pirate, waived midseason, claimed and traded.

 

Luke Gregerson, 2 years/$11 million

signed a 3/$18.5 deal with Houson. Good value?

 

Pat Neshek, 2/$16.5

signed a 2/12.5 with Houston in 2015, was traded to PHI for a PTBNL last November

 

Tommy Hunter 2/$18 million

Minor League signing by TB.

 

Mike Minor 3/$28

Finishing a 2/$7.25 contract with KC, previously had been non-tendered by ATL following injury, spent 2016 rehabbing.  Shades of Pineda?

 

Yusmeiro Petit, 2/$10

minor league deal with LAA

 

Anthony Swarzak, 2/$14

minor league deal with CWS

 

Bryan Shaw, 3/$27

acquired via trade, just finishing up rookie contract years

 

Brandon Morrow, 2/$21

minor league deal with Dodgers

 

I bolded the minor league deals--that is $90 million dollars allocated this offseason to guys who signed as minor league free agents (plus Nicasio, who was also available to just about everyone for nothing.) I'm not really trying to say teams shouldn't sign expensive relievers, but there are plenty of good pitchers to be found out there, before they sign expensive contracts.

 

Cishek, Gregerson, and Neshek (and others) are examples of good investments in relievers.

 

 

[twins_89]

This off-seasons approach to relief pitching almost exactly mirrors last off-season. Wait out the market while the middle relief pool is exhausted then pick up a guy out of the bargain bin. The most surprising thing to me is that it became clear over the course of last season that adding a better reliever in free agency could have had a pretty substantial impact. To repeat the exact same mistake twice leaves me frustrated.

[Taildragger8791]

So let’s say I buy into this conspiracy theory of trying to scam our way out of contracts with questionable physicals. Any chance we can get this same physician to do an exam on Andrew Wiggins? Asking for a friend...

[drjim]

Good stuff on Doogie's podcast.

 

Big takeaway was for better or worse, they aren't going 3 years or $9mil (AAV) on a reliever.

 

Almost all work now on a starter.

 

Might circle back on some third tier free agents.

[laloesch]

Well....looks like the Yankees might get Cole.

[Riverbrian]

 

Interestingly, maybe only one key reliever on those teams was a free agent signee last winter - Chapman. Two, if you count Jansen reupping with the Dodgers. A lot of key relievers were not expected to be, such as Morrow, and several of the guys who were expected to be important at the start of the season, such as Betances, Giles and Devenski, were almost meaningless in the playoffs. The Rockies may be an exception, but their season ended the same way the Twins’ did, and their signings were tailing off a lot at the end of the season.

Everybody agrees that relievers are important. It may be that predictability is so bad that the Twins don’t want to sign multi-year deals right now.

 

I believe that the Twins won't have a choice. They will have to sign multi year deals to land the bullpen  arms they need because the market will demand it. They will have to get better at predictability because the starters will be going shorter and shorter as the years go by. 

 

Unless it's a 40 year player who maybe has a year left and probably lowered his leverage by only considering teams that have a closer opening and will actually name him the closer. 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff on Doogie's podcast.

 

Big takeaway was for better or worse, they aren't going 3 years or $9mil (AAV) on a reliever.

 

Almost all work now on a starter.

 

Might circle back on some third tier free agents.

Did most relievers get three years?

[drjim]

Did most relievers get three years?

Probably about half, right? With most of the rest (of that tier) in the $9mil AAV bucket.