National Writers on Twins Prospects

[drjim]

Thought it might make sense to start a thread on random notes we come across.

[drjim]

From Longenhagen chat:

 

11:08 Jordan: What do you think the chances are that a year from now, Akil Baddoo’s name is creeping onto top 100’s?

11:08 Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re pretty good and non-zero chance he’s already there.

[gunnarthor]

 

From Longenhagen chat:

 

11:08 Jordan: What do you think the chances are that a year from now, Akil Baddoo’s name is creeping onto top 100’s?

11:08 Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re pretty good and non-zero chance he’s already there.

Good idea.

 

Really like Baddoo, too.

[drjim]

More Longenhagen chat:

 

Peter: Bold: Akil Baddoo will be a top 50 prospect by the end of 2018. Your thoughts?
Eric A Longenhagen: Aggressive but not impossible

 

fddhfjd: Does Alex Kiriloff get back on the top-100 radar this year?
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

[drjim]

Quick hits from Rotographs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/a-minor-review-of-2017-minnesota-twins/

[drjim]

Sickels on newly acquired Pearson:

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/12/7/16746588/angels-trade-prospect-jacob-pearson-twins-international-bonus-money

[drjim]

Sickels on Banuelos:

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/12/7/16746878/mariners-trade-prospect-david-banuelos-twins-international-bonus-money

[Mike Sixel]

Sickels isn't exactly excited...

[Thrylos]

 

Sickels isn't exactly excited...

 

Yes, and I do not get it.   Here is the thing:  The kid hit .236/.331/.394 in short season A his first year as a pro, after a whole year of College ball.  He had 328 AB for the season, up from 110 last season.    Perennial All Star catcher's Yadier Molina's career OBP is .338, and SLG .403.   That is not that far away from the apparently "disappointing" pro debut Banuelos had.

 

He is a catcher with allegedly top notch defense and a cannon arm.  Got to put things into perspective...

[drjim]

From Law's chat:

 

GS: Thoughts on players the Twins received in bonus pool trades? Think they handled the money well?

 

Keith Law: Meh.

[tvagle]

Keith Law must have been passed over for a job with the Twins as I can't recall him ever liking a move they've made or a prospect coming up through the system

[Mike Sixel]

From Law's chat:

 

GS: Thoughts on players the Twins received in bonus pool trades? Think they handled the money well?

 

Keith Law: Meh.

My feelings exactly. But that is still better than nothing.

[drjim]

 

My feelings exactly. But that is still better than nothing.

 

Agree on both fronts. A little too much excitement for these moves, but definitely better than nothing.

[gunnarthor]

 

Keith Law must have been passed over for a job with the Twins as I can't recall him ever liking a move they've made or a prospect coming up through the system

He's been very high on Buxton, Kepler and Rosario (he might be the high man on Rosario). He did think Berrios' height would move him to the pen but I think he's been, more or less, fair to the Twins. He also was the high man on our system last offseason, ranking us #11 while BA had us around #20 or so.

 

I think he didn't like our haul b/c the prospects we got back were meh types. At best, we probably got a back-up defensive catcher and a low level avg OF or 4th OFer.

[Mike Sixel]

Keith Law must have been passed over for a job with the Twins as I can't recall him ever liking a move they've made or a prospect coming up through the system

Hahahahaha. He loved Buxton. And Kepler. And Thorpe. Seriously.

[tvagle]

 

Hahahahaha. He loved Buxton. And Kepler. And Thorpe. Seriously.

 

 

He's been very high on Buxton, Kepler and Rosario (he might be the high man on Rosario). He did think Berrios' height would move him to the pen but I think he's been, more or less, fair to the Twins. He also was the high man on our system last offseason, ranking us #11 while BA had us around #20 or so.

 

I think he didn't like our haul b/c the prospects we got back were meh types. At best, we probably got a back-up defensive catcher and a low level avg OF or 4th OFer.

 

Ok so I may be suffering Ohtani (the act of over-exaggerating a point/stance/opinion on something that one really doesn't have factual information to back it up)

 

I stand corrected on KLaw...but honestly who wasn't high on Buxton

[Dman]

Klaws takes are often more right than wrong.  I don't always love to hear what he has to say but I do respect his opinion as he typically knows what he is talking about.  He can be completely wrong but given my experience it has been rare.  I typically take what he has to say seriously.  He is a pretty good judge of talent.  Not perfect but very good.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

I stand corrected on KLaw...but honestly who wasn't high on Buxton

Have you ever gone to other teams milb forums? God, other teams hated Bust-on. But it was jealousy.  

[Steve Lein]

I've been reading all the prospect guys for a long time. Keith Law is one of the one's I trust the most.

 

What I like about him, is he doesn't necessarily sugarcoat things. You have a #HotTake on a prospect? He'll call you out on it and tell you why. 

 

And to be honest (it's just the way he writes that I'm illustrating above), fans of every team would say he "hates them." It's because he's honest. Every team's fans like to think they have a bunch of future all-stars, but that's not nearly the reality, and is what Law's opinions generally illustrate.

[gunnarthor]

 

I've been reading all the prospect guys for a long time. Keith Law is one of the one's I trust the most.

 

What I like about him, is he doesn't necessarily sugarcoat things. You have a #HotTake on a prospect? He'll call you out on it and tell you why. 

 

And to be honest (it's just the way he writes that I'm illustrating above), fans of every team would say he "hates them." It's because he's honest. Every team's fans like to think they have a bunch of future all-stars, but that's not nearly the reality, and is what Law's opinions generally illustrate.

Yeah, he's fair. I'm not sure he's the best at the actual prospecting part - I like mlb.com's team a lot more and over the years, BP has had some great ones (but they keep getting hired by real teams). 

[drjim]

Yeah, he's fair. I'm not sure he's the best at the actual prospecting part - I like mlb.com's team a lot more and over the years, BP has had some great ones (but they keep getting hired by real teams).

Law will be more correct on individual players, but in the aggregate he is not going to be a better prospect analyst than BA or mlb or bp.

 

Averaging his ranks with Sickels and Fangraphs will paint a really good picture.

[jimmer]

 

Law will be more correct on individual players, but in the aggregate he is not going to be a better prospect analyst than BA or mlb or bp.

Averaging his ranks with Sickels and Fangraphs will paint a really good picture.

Oops, you said a bad word :-)

[drjim]

Oops, you said a bad word :-)

Longerhagens is a very solid prospect analyst. I've always liked him.

[gunnarthor]

 

Longerhagens is a very solid prospect analyst. I've always liked him.

Yeah, I like him too. I agree, look at BA, BP, fangraphs, Sickels, mlb.com and you'll get a lot better idea about a player/system. It's also interesting to see how different people view things - a player's height, are strikeouts a problem, how much is 'character' a thing, etc.  But we really do have a lot of solid analysis for fans. I remember the dark ages where we were just told that the Twins had a couple pretty good prospects and couldn't really follow them.

[jimmer]

 

Longerhagens is a very solid prospect analyst. I've always liked him.

I've liked Kiley and I also think Longerhagens is very good.  MLB's prospect listing is the one I look at the least.  

[ashbury]

but honestly who wasn't high on Buxton

The Astros?

[drjim]

I've liked Kiley and I also think Longerhagens is very good. MLB's prospect listing is the one I look at the least.

The way I look at it, if I could only look at one list for all teams it would be mlb. It's the boring mainstream industry consensus.

 

But when I look at all the sources, it is the one I value the least, other than as a sanity check.

[drjim]

Yeah, I like him too. I agree, look at BA, BP, fangraphs, Sickels, mlb.com and you'll get a lot better idea about a player/system. It's also interesting to see how different people view things - a player's height, are strikeouts a problem, how much is 'character' a thing, etc. But we really do have a lot of solid analysis for fans. I remember the dark ages where we were just told that the Twins had a couple pretty good prospects and couldn't really follow them.

I kind of enjoy analyzing the biases of the different analysts.

[jimmer]

 

The way I look at it, if I could only look at one list for all teams it would be mlb. It's the boring mainstream industry consensus.

But when I look at all the sources, it is the one I value the least, other than as a sanity check.

IMO, MLB gives too much credit for guys closer to the majors.

[drjim]

IMO, MLB gives too much credit for guys closer to the majors.

That, and they are slow to move off of pedigree/name.