General politics

[Badsmerf]

When sampling data to remove bias it's done randomly. This forum cannot be used to represent anything regarding the public sentiment for Trunp due to selection bias. It would be like asking people attending a Red Sox game at Fenway if they are Yankee fans. There is a bias due to the sample.

Pretty simple stuff

I have a problem with those polls. For one, I think approval to many means they are Republican and a Republican is in office (likely vice versa for democrats). Problem is, I refuse to believe such a high percentage of republicans approve of Trump. The man is a menace to the world, and the only solace exists to particular conservative issues, many of which are not in cohesive agreement within the party. Many Republicans on the hill hate him, but are too cowardly to speak against him. I believe this sentiment is pervasive in the nation as a whole, but I could be bias because of my disdain and hope that the masses can see through partIsanship.

[MMMordabito]

As far as 19th century literature, it isn't bad. Worth skimming. When I would teach it, the students didn't notably cringe. (If the point isn't clear, it's main theme is that empowering those who refuse or can't work has dire consequences).

It's actually one of my favorites. I think you missed what I was trying to do there.

[PseudoSABR]

 

It's actually one of my favorites. I think you missed what I was trying to do there.

NOW I GET IT. (It's probably been ten years since I've read it (as I no longer teach), and the weight of "prefer" was lost on me.)

[ewen21]

 

I have a problem with those polls. For one, I think approval to many means they are Republican and a Republican is in office (likely vice versa for democrats). Problem is, I refuse to believe such a high percentage of republicans approve of Trump. The man is a menace to the world, and the only solace exists to particular conservative issues, many of which are not in cohesive agreement within the party. Many Republicans on the hill hate him, but are too cowardly to speak against him. I believe this sentiment is pervasive in the nation as a whole, but I could be bias because of my disdain and hope that the masses can see through partIsanship.

I appreciate your honesty and I think you understand that I was not trying to say your opinion is biased.  I was not trying to say or prove anyone's opinion is biased.  That is different from what I said,  I've clarified that a few times and I hope that is good enough for those who said I wasn't clear.

 

If it is still unclear to anyone please PM me.  I am not going to go through it again and again here.

 

[Badsmerf]

I appreciate your honesty and I think you understand that I was not trying to say your opinion is biased. I was not trying to say or prove anyone's opinion is biased. That is different from what I said, I've clarified that a few times and I hope that is good enough for those who said I wasn't clear.

 

If it is still unclear to anyone please PM me. I am not going to go through it again and again here.

It's all good. I'd rather split hairs about particular ideas than argue about semantics and nebulous support.

 

I know we haven't had much dialog on here, and not sure how much of these huge threads you've read, but many of us are moderates that are disenfranchised by the GOP at the moment. The GOP platform has really been deformed and turned in into something many of us can't support.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also, what do you make of the growing number of African Americans who are now embracing Trump?

Are you referencing the 6% or the 8% who are now embracing Trump??

Because you better back up that statement with actual numbers.

[ewen21]

 

Are you referencing the 6% or the 8% who are now embracing Trump??

Because you better back up that statement with actual numbers.

Not referencing any poll, Brock.  I am speaking of the amount of videos surfacing with blacks making testimonals about how they are walking away from the democratic party.

Watch this video as an example.  The video might be instructive for you as to what I said.  Check out the likes compared to the dislikes, look at the comments and listen to what the guy says about Minneapolis in particular.  Uh-huh.

 

You didn't cite a source with those numbers and you are asking me to.  I suppose I can cite polls and I tried to, but it is a little dubious.  You can post numbers that fit your view and I can counter with another one.  What is the point?  I tried to bow out of this and you quote me.  Why?

 

It is just too one-sided and I guess that was point.  I read pages and pages of stuff here but it was pretty homogenous.  I did not even vote for Trump, by the way.  I am a moderate by every measure.  My nephew even had me take a political test and it had me even a little to the left.  Just to give you an idea of how extreme the left has gotten.  Seems as if the far left, the louder part of the left, has taken over.

 

And NOW I walk to walk away from politics talk here.

Allow me that and don't get too upset if I don't respond. I would rather discuss baseball here, not this stuff.  You can hardly be a centrist in this joint.

 

I'll leave you with another good one.  9.7K likes and 30 dislikes

[TheLeviathan]

When I think "accurate" I think likes on Youtube.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not referencing any poll, Brock. I am speaking of the amount of videos surfacing with blacks making testimonals about how they are walking away from the democratic party.

Watch this video as an example. The video might be instructive for you as to what I said. Check out the likes compared to the dislikes, look at the comments and listen to what the guy says about Minneapolis in particular. Uh-huh.

 

You didn't cite a source with those numbers and you are asking me to. I suppose I can cite polls and I tried to, but it is a little dubious. You can post numbers that fit your view and I can counter with another one. What is the point? I tried to bow out of this and you quote me. Why?

 

It is just too one-sided and I guess that was point. I read pages and pages of stuff here but it was pretty homogenous. I did not even vote for Trump, by the way. I am a moderate by every measure. My nephew even had me take a political test and it had me even a little to the left. Just to give you an idea of how extreme the left has gotten. Seems as if the far left, the louder part of the left, has taken over.

 

And NOW I walk to walk away from politics talk here.

Allow me that and don't get too upset if I don't respond. I would rather discuss baseball here, not this stuff. You can hardly be a centrist in this joint.

 

I'll leave you with another good one. 9.7K likes and 30 dislikes

Is this literally the response you want to give or would you like to try again? I'll give you a mulligan if you want to take advantage of it.

 

Literally 11 out of 12 black people voted for someone other than Trump. Those are actual numbers. You posted a YouTube video.

 

I don’t care if you’re a centrist, left, right, up, or down. Your statement is factually incorrect and you posted a video citing likes to defend your point. If you can’t see the problem here... *shrugs*

[ashbury]

Samuel L Jackson's role in Tarantino's movie Django Unchained is an illustration (not proof) of how there have always been individuals willing to buck conventional wisdom. It doesn't make it a good thing.

 

Propaganda has never been more central to political discourse, and by no means will I claim it doesn't occur on both sides (of any issue), but this video strikes me as comfortably in that vein - someone willing to be used for propaganda purposes for reasons he alone may know. It's a datapoint but not a very important one IMO. There are always outliers in any kind of data.

 

In my lifetime one of the amusing constants has been the hard right thinking that politics is mostly about the "latest trends," and that these swing back and forth, and that it'll be their turn soon. Videos like this one being embraced as proof of something big building up seems squarely in this tradition.

[ewen21]

I am not interested in having a debate about polls.  My comment on African Americans had nothing to do with polls and you are putting different two things together.  I am talking about a how I see a growing movement of blacks turning away from the democratic party in various forms of social media

 

I have seen literally dozens of these walkaway videos from African Americans and all of them have tons of likes and very few dislikes.  Do you even care what these people are saying?  I have great interest in this and I never seen so many videos on YouTube from African Americans speaking out like this.  They are actually speaking out against the democratic party and how they are leaving.  Many of them were not aware of the fact that the democratic party was the slavery party and the KKK party.  How the democratic party has dominated some of the poorest, downtrodden cities like Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore....how they voted for Obama and that he went against a lot of the traditional Christian values they were raised with.  I find it interesting that so many of these videos have cropped up in the last couple of  years.  I think it takes courage for them to step out like this because wearing MAGA apparel is actually dangerous in certain situations.  If you want to shrug that off then shrug it off. I am not trying to convince you of anything.  Have your views, but don't pretend for a second that there isn't a movement toward conservatism for African Americans during this last year. Evidence of this is all over the Internet if you choose to look.  You are asking me to measure that.  I am telling you go watch for yourself.  I think it is refreshing to see African American people choosing not to operate on a default mechanism.  

 

As far as polls go, you know how that game goes.  I don't rely on them and I posted the poll only to illustrate this site is not mainstream or centrist.  It is on par, in my opinion, to a cite that would be utterly dominated by MAGA hat wearing Trump supporters.  It's the same thing, just the other side of the spectrum here.  The fact is it is the evidence is incontrovertible that this site is overwhelmingly anti-Trump.  That is indisputable.  I didn't feel the need to actually prove it, but I wanted to say it.  That's all.  I am not a proprietor of this site, nor am I an administrator like you are. 

Be that as it may, you cannot dispute that the #Walkaway movement doesn't exist or that a growing number of videos from African Americans rebuking the democratic party are surfacing online.  For them to sit down and talk for 10, 20, 30 minutes or more and proclaim this is significant.  That is the reasoning behind why I see African American support for Trump is increasing in number, as unscientific as that might be.  

You take the last word. 

[ewen21]

 

Samuel L Jackson's role in Tarantino's movie Django Unchained is an illustration (not proof) of how there have always been individuals willing to buck conventional wisdom. It doesn't make it a good thing.

 

Propaganda has never been more central to political discourse, and by no means will I claim it doesn't occur on both sides (of any issue), but this video strikes me as comfortably in that vein - someone willing to be used for propaganda purposes for reasons he alone may know. It's a datapoint but not a very important one IMO. There are always outliers in any kind of data.

 

In my lifetime one of the amusing constants has been the hard right thinking that politics is mostly about the "latest trends," and that these swing back and forth, and that it'll be their turn soon. Videos like this one being embraced as proof of something big building up seems squarely in this tradition.

You are saying he was manipulated  or compensated for in some way to make that video?  That is quite a leap to take.  It is almost as though you believe it is impossible for a black man to believe something different from what you would expect.  I love it

 

 

 

[ashbury]

You are saying he was manipulated  or compensated for in some way to make that video?  That is quite a leap to take.  It is almost as though you believe it is impossible for a black man to believe something different from what you would expect.  I love it

Manipulated? Such an ugly word. Let's say courted. The Russians were patient in developing Trump as an asset, for example.

[Craig Arko]

In other political news, is Netanyahu finally going down?

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/03/end-nigh-netanyahu/583975/

[TheLeviathan]

Dozens of YouTube videos is not a trend. It's perhaps reason to look for trends with actual evidence but in and of itself it is a meaningless observation.

 

Its not just "unscientific", it's far less than that without other corraboration. And perhaps worse, it shows a lack of interest in supporting claims with actual evidence.

[ewen21]

 

That wasn’t your original comment. There is a difference between walking away from the Democratic Party and embracing Trump. The former, maybe. The latter, very doubtful. YouTube videos are not proof. I’d rather watch videos of African American leaders speaking directly about the AA caucus. And the sources these videos come from, well, I won’t even begin down that road. I mean any idiot wannabe can make/post YouTube videos. It doesn’t make them legit. I, too, am interested in what people are actually saying. I won’t seek out YouTube for that, though. That is not goin to make your point, and it doesn’t. It only questions your credibility on what you consider a source for your opinions. Maybe actually try researcIhing and reading.

Try reading?  Excuse me.  You don't want to hear it so you won't do the reading.  It isn't up to me to provide links.  I am not fool enough to think I can convince anyone here by posting by posting links from Thomas Sowell (read a lot of him), Walter Williams, Larry Elder, Deroy Murdock, Ben Carson, etc...etc,.

It's a pain in the neck to even do that.

Have you tried researching and reading in this area?  What do you know about the African American ethos.  You say "African American leaders".  What does that even mean?  Is Larry Elder or Thomas Sowell an African American leader or is it Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton?  

 

As far as #walkaway goes.  If they are not walking toward the right, where are they walking?  

 

[TheLeviathan]

If you make the claim, proving it is up to you. That's how it works.

[NumberThree]

Try reading? Excuse me. You don't want to hear it so you won't do the reading. It isn't up to me to provide links. I am not fool enough to think I can convince anyone here by posting by posting links from Thomas Sowell (read a lot of him), Walter Williams, Larry Elder, Deroy Murdock, Ben Carson, etc...etc,.

It's a pain in the neck to even do that.

Have you tried researching and reading in this area? What do you know about the African American ethos. You say "African American leaders". What does that even mean? Is Larry Elder or Thomas Sowell an African American leader or is it Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton?

 

As far as #walkaway goes. If they are not walking toward the right, where are they walking?

That wasn’t your statement. You said ‘embracing Trump.’ That is very different from walking away from the Dem Party. They could be liberal independents, independent centrists,socialists, libertarians, party unaffiliated... As I said leaving the Dem party is very different from embracing Trump, which was your original claim. And I do read. A lot. But you are the one making a claim. It’s up to you to support it.

[stringer bell]

Anyone who identifies as a minority would have a hard time in Trump's Republican party. If one identifies as a gun owner or abortion opponent who happens to be black, well that is different. 

 

I can see ample reason for Democrats to be concerned about their most loyal constituency--African Americans-because on the whole things have not improved for them. Hillary got a high enough percentage of the black vote, but she didn't get the turnout that Obama got in the two previous presidential elections. 

 

The choice would be between voting and not voting and I think a large percentage of people of color, particularly African-Americans have chosen not to participate.

[ewen21]

 

Anyone who identifies as a minority would have a hard time in Trump's Republican party. If one identifies as a gun owner or abortion opponent who happens to be black, well that is different. 

 

I can see ample reason for Democrats to be concerned about their most loyal constituency--African Americans-because on the whole things have not improved for them. Hillary got a high enough percentage of the black vote, but she didn't get the turnout that Obama got in the two previous presidential elections. 

 

The choice would be between voting and not voting and I think a large percentage of people of color, particularly African-Americans have chosen not to participate.

YOu ought to look into how blacks feel about sanctuary cities, "the wall" and the economy.

 

You make a good point at the end.  How many of these polls utilize the opinions of voters?

 

I have this from NBC/Wall Street Journal.  Brock said the African American approval rating was 6% or 8% percent in a response to me.  Mind you, he did that without citing his source and he demanded I produce a source.  I didn't want to because I am pretty busy with a couple of things and I don't want to start a firestorm here, but what the heck.  As of a couple of weeks ago the Wall Street Journal reflects and African American approval rating of 13%.  Rasmussen had it as high as 36% months ago, but I am looking for something closer to the truth

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5756864-19062-NBCWSJ-February-Poll.html

**It should be noted the poll interviewed more democrats than republicans

 

Finally, I have to ask you about the underlined and streamline the term "minority" down to African Americans.  Why do you say African Americans would have a difficult time in his administration?  Is it in part because other blacks in congress view them as "token" members?

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2019/03/03/aoc-tries-to-scold-charles-payne-for-asking-about-black-staff-runs-into-raging-buzzsaws-from-him-and-others-candace-owens-unloads-729323

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Have your views, but don't pretend for a second that there isn't a movement toward conservatism for African Americans during this last year.

We literally had an election a few months ago. We don't have to guess on this one, we have the numbers.

 

And the numbers were that black people as a whole voted approximately +80 for Democrats.

 

The number in 2016? +80 for Democrats. Little or no movement, certainly not enough to be statistically significant.

 

Your argument is the very definition of cherry-picking. You are searching for videos and finding evidence in their mere existence... if I searched YouTube, I could literally find videos of black people defending slavery. That has absolutely no bearing on where black people, as a voting unit, are trending.

 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/09/how-latinos-voted-in-2018-midterms/

 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock said the African American approval rating was 6% or 8% percent in a response to me.  Mind you, he did that without citing his source and he demanded I produce a source.  I didn't want to because I am pretty busy with a couple of things and I don't want to start a firestorm here, but what the heck.  As of a couple of weeks ago the Wall Street Journal reflects and African American approval rating of 13%.  Rasmussen had it as high as 36% months ago, but I am looking for something closer to the truth

Here's your source (note that I never mentioned approval rating, you assumed that's what I meant). I didn't link it because I read it months ago and didn't feel it necessary to supply a link because I assumed it was common knowledge.

 

https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016

 

Also, there are other sources that say similar things (I think you can find something in the article I posted earlier) so this link's data is not an outlier.

[TheLeviathan]

Guys, I consulted Youtube.  Tide pods are food and Momo is real.

 

Also, my kids are going to start opening toys for a living.  If you disagree with me, don't bother, I will be plugging my ears with my fingers and saying "LALALA" really loudly until I pass out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Guys, I consulted Youtube.  Tide pods are food and Momo is real.

 

Also, my kids are going to start opening toys for a living.  If you disagree with me, don't bother, I will be plugging my ears with my fingers and saying "LALALA" really loudly until I pass out.

By the way, I searched YouTube for videos of black people defending slavery.

 

They exist.

[ewen21]

 

We literally had an election a few months ago. We don't have to guess on this one, we have the numbers.

 

And the numbers were that black people as a whole voted approximately +80 for Democrats.

 

The number in 2016? +80 for Democrats. Little or no movement, certainly not enough to be statistically significant.

 

Your argument is the very definition of cherry-picking. You are searching for videos and finding evidence in their existence... if I searched YouTube, I could literally find videos of black people defending slavery. That has absolutely no bearing on where black people, as a voting unit, are trending.

 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/09/how-latinos-voted-in-2018-midterms/

 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

Neither of your links apply.  Gubernatorial races have exactly what to do with Trump's approval rating among blacks?  Maybe there is an indirect correlation someplace, maybe not.  The second one is from 2016. Completely irrelevant to the discussion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Neither of your links apply.  Gubernatorial races have exactly what to do with Trump's approval rating among blacks?  Maybe there is an indirect correlation someplace, maybe not.  The second one is from 2016. Completely irrelevant to the discussion.

You're right. Actual exit polling data has no application to this conversation, but your gut feeling and half dozen YouTube videos are solid gold evidence.

 

Are you even listening to yourself right now?

[Brock Beauchamp]

But here, just because I keep coming at this for some inexplicable reason, have another article that basically shoots a Trump-sized hole in your argument.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/17/no-one-third-of-african-americans-dont-support-trump-not-even-close/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6115c952e7d6

[ewen21]

Guys, your clowing is weak now.

 

https://blexit.com/

 

 

 

 

[ewen21]

 

You're right. Actual exit polling data has no application to this conversation, but your gut feeling and half dozen YouTube videos are solid gold evidence.

 

Are you even listening to yourself right now?

 

I gave you your link, Brock.  The You Tube stuff exists and a few of you guys mock the videos, pretty much mocking the people who made them.  That's not cool.

 

Why is so outlandish to realize #walkaway and Blexit are real and blacks are moving toward conservatism?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I gave you your link, Brock.  The You Tube stuff exists and a few of you guys mock the videos, pretty much mocking the people who made them.  That's not cool.

 

Why is so outlandish to realize #walkaway and Blexit are real and blacks are moving toward conservatism?

Because they're not. It's that bloody simple. WE JUST HAD AN ELECTION. We know, using actual hard numbers, that the black vote didn't move significantly from 2016.

 

Listen, black Americans number in the tens of millions of people. No, not EVERY SINGLE BLACK PERSON is a Democrat or even leans blue because of course there is variance within a group of people that large and diverse.

 

You have no numbers on your side here. None. Nada. Zilch.

 

Meanwhile, I've basically been link-spamming you with actual data. For kicks, HERE IS MORE.

 

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/8b2f7d_d6b4e1aeedee467da9a84e29edcb642a.pdf