Regression and Progression in 2018

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

So I was looking at the defensive numbers for 3Bs who had 650 or more innings played.  I used that amount of innings played cause it gave me 26 3Bs to look at.

 

What I found interesting was the comparison of Sano and Escobar.

 

-They played pretty much the same amount of innings at 3B (high 600 innings). 

-They made exactly the same amount of plays.

-They each had -5 DRS (which ranked them tied for 19th, both likely would have been worse lower if either had played a normal amount of innings for a starting 3B)

-They had almost exactly the same UZR (-1.0 for Sano, -1.2 for Escobar).  

-Escobar had more range, but still very poor range (20th ranked RZR for Escobar, 25th for Sano).

 

As a team we ranked 18th in UZR at 3B,tied for 24th in DRS, and 29th in RZR (range).

Good analysis. Thank you. I had thought that Escobar would be far superior to Sano in these areas. Boy was I wrong.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

 

What's with all the negative talk?  We've waited a long time to field a competitive team and now its finally arrived.  If this team had an average age of 28,29 or 30 I would say lets talk regression.  However, I really don't see regression coming from Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton or Polanco.  These guys are so young now and only getting better.  We were the best hitting team the second half of the year and I would think we can carry that over to next year too.  Mauer may even improve as well.  Most players do the last year of their contracts.

 

You might see some regression from Santana and Belisle but I think it would be minor.  Santana has kept the consistency for two years now.  Let's get some new arms going for the bullpen and starters.

 

It's gonna be a fun team to watch!

I agree. Twins Territory no longer includes Lake Wobegone, where the men are good looking, the women are strong and the baseball players are slightly above average.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins were the best hitting team in baseball in the second half. There is only one direction to go when you are #1. There will be regression from most of the position players, how much is the question.

 

The logic in this statement doesn't work well. The Twins were also a very young offense with many of their key players really getting their first full seasons under their belts. That's not primed for regression. If anything, it's primed for improvement. The question is whether the regression in guys like Mauer and Dozier (if it happens) would be offset by gains in guys like Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, and Polanco.... and all of those guys should be able to take steps forward offensively next season...

 

As for mine:

 

Regression: Santana, Belisle (if he stays).

 

Progression: well, just about everyone under 27.

 

Guys I want to believe in but cannot: Gibson.

[Doomtints]

 

The logic in this statement doesn't work well. 

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

[drjim]

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

 

I think it is likely that some hitters progress and some regress and they stay at a relatively similar level. So on the aggregate there shouldn't be much regression. Twins also have the ability to upgrade the DH/backup 1B spot a little, which would trickle down to Grossman getting some of the OF starts that went to Adrianza.

[gunnarthor]

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

But your logic is that the Twins were best offense in baseball's second half so they won't be #1 next year and that's regression?  Wouldn't regression mean they had to be worse than #7 (if runs is what you're going by) since that's where they placed during the season?  I think most of us considering regression/progression are thinking about how players/teams will perform over the full season and not just the last couple months.

[Thrylos]

For the pitchers, If you take the ERA-FIP, which is basic regression measument, you got
Busenitz (-1.30), Santana (-1.18), Rogers (-1.02) on one side (Regression) and Duffey (1.22), and Curtiss (3.42/SSS) on the other (Improvement).   The rest are within -/+ 0.50.  I am ignoring FAs and people who will be DFA'd (Tonkin, Turley, Boshers etc.)

This is pretty scary, because arguably their best 2 relievers and the starter that the DickNBerts of the world call the Twins' "Ace", are about to regress in 2018, which makes rebuilding the pen and the rotation a huge necessity, if they are to compete in the post-season.

[howieramone2]

 

For the pitchers, If you take the ERA-FIP, which is basic regression measument, you got
Busenitz (-1.30), Santana (-1.18), Rogers (-1.02) on one side (Regression) and Duffey (1.22), and Curtiss (3.42/SSS) on the other (Improvement).   The rest are within -/+ 0.50.  I am ignoring FAs and people who will be DFA'd (Tonkin, Turley, Boshers etc.)

This is pretty scary, because arguably their best 2 relievers and the starter that the DickNBerts of the world call the Twins' "Ace", are about to regress in 2018, which makes rebuilding the pen and the rotation a huge necessity, if they are to compete in the post-season.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[drjim]

 

For the pitchers, If you take the ERA-FIP, which is basic regression measument, you got
Busenitz (-1.30), Santana (-1.18), Rogers (-1.02) on one side (Regression) and Duffey (1.22), and Curtiss (3.42/SSS) on the other (Improvement).   The rest are within -/+ 0.50.  I am ignoring FAs and people who will be DFA'd (Tonkin, Turley, Boshers etc.)

This is pretty scary, because arguably their best 2 relievers and the starter that the DickNBerts of the world call the Twins' "Ace", are about to regress in 2018, which makes rebuilding the pen and the rotation a huge necessity, if they are to compete in the post-season.

 

Santana has enough of a track record of overperforming his fip that it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion it will be that big. He will probably regress a little though, and really should be considered the #3 going into next season.

[yarnivek1972]

I wouldn’t bet on Boshers being DFA (actually, non-tendered). Unless the Twins think they will need the roster spot. There’s really no downside to tendering him (he’s still pre-arb). If you don’t like what you see in ST (or perhaps like what you see from others), release him then.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

 

well, you're cherry picking the second half offensive stats to justify regression for their season stats (7th overall)... It's an odd argument, to say the least. Any offense can get hot for a month, but I do think there's something to be said for the fact that they were the best offense in baseball for half the season, and given their age, I think it's very reasonable for the offense to take a step forward in 2018. Can they finish with the number 1 offense in baseball next year? Probably not, but there is enough youth/ceiling there where it's possible, and even if they aren't 1, they could still finish well above their 2017 line of 7 overall.

 

There were no 2009 Joe Mauers putting up gaudy stats. The young kids all took big steps forward. Mauer was the only real surprise in the offense, and he didn't put up numbers outside his career norms. He simply did better than he's done the last few years. So yeah, I think improvement from 7 overall is pretty reasonable. The problem, as we all know, is pitching.

[spinowner]

 

Sure, but ask yourself this. Is this really the best offense in baseball? Sure, it might be, but most likely it isn't. And in any case, usually being #1 is fleeting at best.

I would not be surprised if this offense is the best offense in baseball in 2018. Excepting Mauer and Dozier the players are young enough that they reasonably can be expected to improve, in some cases significantly. Mauer and Dozier reasonably can be expected to regress slightly. I'm guessing that there will be a net improvement next year.

[Loosey]

Regarding Santana; I think we already have seen the regression.  He was almost unhittable in April and parts of May.  After that he was OK.  He may regress more, but his end of the season line, was not equivalent to the pitcher pitching at the end of the season.  

[howieramone2]

 

Regarding Santana; I think we already have seen the regression.  He was almost unhittable in April and parts of May.  After that he was OK.  He may regress more, but his end of the season line, was not equivalent to the pitcher pitching at the end of the season.  

That's called the ebb and flow of the season. He has shown absolutely no signs of decline. I do understand this is disappointing to some members of the board, but I heard the same nonsense after last season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's called the ebb and flow of the season. He has shown absolutely no signs of decline. I do understand this is disappointing to some members of the board, but I heard the same nonsense after last season.

1. Santana was worse in some of the things he could control this season (K rate, for example) and much better in the things he doesn't have much control over (BABIP, for example).

 

2. Being worried about a player's impending decline and not seeing it happen in a specific season does not invalidate the concern. All players age, though not at the same rate. Maybe Santana is one of those guys who is effective until he's 36 years old. Maybe his arm falls off this season. It's something to consider at the very least, especially on a team with little pitching that expects to contend again.

 

If you find enough pitchers where Santana works out be be #3 (or hopefully, #4) on this team in 2018, it's less of a concern.

[jimmer]

2016 Santana: FIP 3.81, xFIP 4.21 BABIP .285.  74.1% LOB%.

2017 Santana: FIP 4.46, xFIP 4.77 BABIP .245 (Thank you, Buxton). 79.5% LOB.

 

1. Santana was worse in some of the things he could control this season (K rate, for example) and much better in the things he doesn't have much control over (BABIP, for example).