Go get Verlander

[alarp33]

 

To be fair, nobody is arguing for building entirely from FA and trades either.

 

I mean one poster literally used the Astros as his argument for big free agent signings and trades.  The same Astros that tore things down, built the best farm system in baseball, and had like 6 hitters and their starting pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series come from within, but sure

 

If there is a better example to MY point* than the Astros, I don't know it.  

 

*Don't trade all your top prospects when you are no where near competing for a title

[Mr. Brooks]

I mean one poster literally used the Astros as his argument for big free agent signings and trades. The same Astros that tore things down, built the best farm system in baseball, and had like 6 hitters and their starting pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series come from within, but sure

 

If there is a better example to MY point* than the Astros, I don't know it.

 

*Don't trade all your top prospects when you are no where near competing for a title

I don't disagree with your philosophy.

I'm just observing that I don't see anyone asking for a roster of 25 free agents.

 

Also, building like Houston probably isn't a realistic model for us.

They went the smart route and tanked for future assets. We'll never have the pure number of high end prospects that they did, though we have built solid depth of potential role players.

[alarp33]

 

I don't disagree with your philosophy.
I'm just observing that I don't see anyone asking for a roster of 25 free agents.

Also, building like Houston probably isn't a realistic model for us.
They went the smart route and tanked for future assets. We'll never have the pure number of high end prospects that they did, though we have built solid depth of potential role players.

 

Demanding the Twins trade their entire farm when they are 7 games under .500 seems pretty anti Cubs/ Astros and even recent Yankees (traded Chapman and others) to me. 

 

No, building like Houston right now is not realistic.  But that doesn't mean right now in what looks more and more like a lost season is anywhere near the time to push the chips in the middle.  The only trades the Twins need to be involved in this season involve Dozier, Lynn, Rodney, etc.  

 

This offseason?  If there seems to be any sort of awakening from Sano and Buxton, might be the time to try and reasonably go for it in 2019.  Payroll will have tons of room, FA class looks better, and they could return a decent core.  Does that mean I think they are close enough this off season to look at gutting the farm system and trading a Lewis type prospect? No

 

[USAFChief]

 

   No one has ever said to win you have to build your entire 25 man roster from home grown players. Let's stop with these absurdly stupid nit picking examples.  The cubs and the Astros are two great examples for the Twins to follow. Both won BY BUILDING THEIR FARM SYTEM, they then supplemented that through FA and Trades.  NO ONE IS ARGUING against that.  The Twins are 13 games out of a WC spot, they aren't in the Cubs, Astros, Yankees position when they acquired the Lesters, Verlanders, Stanton's   

 

I'm fully aware the posters trying to make these arguments understand exactly what Major League is saying but are choosing these odd nit picks to argue. 

Nobody--NOBODY--is arguing against building their farm system.

 

Some of us are arguing you can use that farm system for more than improving the Ft Myers W/L record. You don't have to sit around on your hands and wait for years for the perfect confluence of talent to arrive at the big leagues all at the same time. 

 

Please stop putting words in other poster's mouths. 

[USAFChief]

 

Demanding the Twins trade their entire farm when they are 7 games under .500 seems pretty anti Cubs/ Astros and even recent Yankees (traded Chapman and others) to me. 

 

No, building like Houston right now is not realistic.  But that doesn't mean right now in what looks more and more like a lost season is anywhere near the time to push the chips in the middle.  The only trades the Twins need to be involved in this season involve Dozier, Lynn, Rodney, etc.  

 

This offseason?  If there seems to be any sort of awakening from Sano and Buxton, might be the time to try and reasonably go for it in 2019.  Payroll will have tons of room, FA class looks better, and they could return a decent core.  Does that mean I think they are close enough this off season to look at gutting the farm system and trading a Lewis type prospect? No

And while I'm at it...nobody--NObody--has DEMANDED they trade their entire farm system.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

Nobody--NOBODY--is arguing against building their farm system.

 

Some of us are arguing you can use that farm system for more than improving the Ft Myers W/L record. You don't have to sit around on your hands and wait for years for the perfect confluence of talent to arrive at the big leagues all at the same time. 

 

Please stop putting words in other poster's mouths. 

 

 

To get this straight. You DO want to build the farm system. But also, trade Single A talent regardless of the major league talent / record. Ok

 

[Mike Sixel]

No one has ever said to win you have to build your entire 25 man roster from home grown players. Let's stop with these absurdly stupid nit picking examples. The cubs and the Astros are two great examples for the Twins to follow. Both won BY BUILDING THEIR FARM SYTEM, they then supplemented that through FA and Trades. NO ONE IS ARGUING against that. The Twins are 13 games out of a WC spot, they aren't in the Cubs, Astros, Yankees position when they acquired the Lesters, Verlanders, Stanton's

 

I'm fully aware the posters trying to make these arguments understand exactly what Major League is saying but are choosing these odd nit picks to argue.

No. That's not true. They are in position to trade for guys with multiple years of control. And, stating that you know people's intention, and assuming they have bad intentions? Well played.

 

MLR had argued against signing big time free agents, ever. People here are arguing against trading legit prospects, ever. Just a few posts up.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

This one I highlighted, the timeline as you remember it is completely wrong. Sonny Gray wasn't spoken of as a trade target until last summer (I remember this because I was one of the earliest, loudest voices for Gray.) But by last summer, Jose Berrios was showing quality stuff as a starting pitcher. There's no chance anyone would have seriously proposed sending Berrios in a trade for Gray, except as satire or tongue in cheek. 

 

 

 

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/chasing-an-ace-r4227

 

EDIT- And here is the thread, both people who liked your post calling him "completely wrong" commented plenty about trading Berrios for Gray prior to the 2016 season

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20483-would-you-do-it/

 

 

[alarp33]

 

No. That's not true. They are in position to trade for guys with multiple years of control. And, stating that you know people's intention, and assuming they have bad intentions? Well played.

MLR had argued against signing big time free agents, ever. People here are arguing against trading legit prospects, ever. Just a few posts up.

 

Why are they in a position? Could they be this offseason, maybe? But this team as it sits today, looks WAY further away than anyone realized.  Much of which is strictly built around the disappointing 2018 starts for Sano and Buxton.  If Sano and Buxton stink (I'm not writing either off), why are you trading for Realmuto, to win 75 games instead of 71 games next year?

[Jham]

I really don’t think it’s fair to lump Kepler with Buxton and Sano. First of all, he’s been in the lineup (i.e. healthy) pretty much everyday. He has an OPS+ over 100 and a bWAR of .8. Sano and Buxton can say all but 3 of those.

Kepler’s problem is very much different than Sano or Buxton. Kepler has a career low 16% K rate and a career high 12% BB rate. He is not being overmatched. He has good pitch recognition and plate discipline.

Sano has a career worst 40% K rate and career worst 9% BB rate. Buxton has a 32% K rate, which isn’t career worst but is still terrible.

Kepler’s line drive % is 24% which is right about his career mark and just a tick below league average (26%).

Sano has a 16% line drive rate, about half his career mark coming into 2018. Buxton is at 19%, also a career low.

The number that stands out for me is Kepler’s .250 BABIP. He has always run low. His career mark is .265. My thinking is that it is mostly a result of hitting into the shift too predictably. That has to be the next phase of Kepler’s development. Making himself a threat to all fields. Then the shifts go away and his BABIP should normalize.

Sano’s BABIP is .303. Buxton’s is an absurdly low .226, but that just shows how bad a place he is in and could be related to the foot issues resulting in extremely weak contact (further evidenced by his LD%).

So, very different problem for Kepler. But one I think he can improve. He has made tremendous strides vs lhp, so he clearly is capable of adjusting his approach. Frankly, neither Buxton or Sano have proven they can adjust yet. They have gotten where they are largely with natural ability.

I'm not comparing failures. I was comparing hype. In my mind, it was ridiculous kep was put in the same level as buck and sano. He's a nice player, but never really screamed all star, imo.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/chasing-an-ace-r4227

 

 

Interesting finding these. I assumed the poster you are speaking for (MLR) was referring to last summer, and not these old "hot stove" threads from 2015.

[alarp33]

 

Interesting finding these. I assumed the poster you are speaking for (MLR) was referring to last summer, and not these old "hot stove" threads from 2015.

 

The only one who brought up last summer was you, when you called him completely wrong and said no one had ever discussed Gray here until last summer. 

 

Why would the Twins have been discussing trading their #2 starting pitcher last summer?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The only one who brought up last summer was you, when you called him completely wrong and said no one had ever discussed Gray here until last summer.

 

Why would the Twins have been discussing trading their #2 starting pitcher last summer?

Like I said, I assumed the poster was referring to last summer, and not a hot stove thread from 2015.

 

 

Also, the other two posters you mention have been as consistent as anyone else in discussing how they want the team to improve.

[alarp33]

Like I said, I assumed the poster was referring to last summer, and not a hot stove thread from 2015.

 

 

Also, the other two posters you mention have been as consistent as anyone else in discussing how they want the team to improve.

“Sonny Gray wasn't spoken of as a trade target until last summer”

 

Who wrote that sentence when telling someone they were “completely wrong”?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

“Sonny Gray wasn't spoken of as a trade target until last summer”

Who wrote that sentence when telling someone they were “completely wrong”?

The poster you are defending was talking about the Yankees, and in the course of talking about the Yankees he said: "Severino is their best pitcher. Their big trade (Sonny Gray) has been mediocre at best."

 

He was speaking in the present, and I have put the Ryan era behind me. That's why I assumed the poster was talking about the Sonny Gray trade discussion from last summer, not the Sonny Gray thread you found from three seasons ago. That's why I called that poster's recollection wrong when maybe it was my recollection that was wrong for forgetting that old thread existed, or not leaving open the possibility such a thread might exist.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Why are they in a position? Could they be this offseason, maybe? But this team as it sits today, looks WAY further away than anyone realized.  Much of which is strictly built around the disappointing 2018 starts for Sano and Buxton.  If Sano and Buxton stink (I'm not writing either off), why are you trading for Realmuto, to win 75 games instead of 71 games next year?

 

I would argue that Realmuto is a move for 2019 and 2020 as well, not as much 2018. You said yourself that you aren't writing Sano and Buxton off. I tend to agree for the record, but I think both need some minor league time and I think 2018 is pretty much toast at this point (baring something miraculous this weekend). 

 

The team has enough surplus in the farm system to get Realmuto, especially if it's willing to put Lewis or Gordon along with one of their near ready AAA pitchers on the block. If the window of contention is still open (and despite what appears to be a lost season, I think it's fair to say that it is), adding a piece like that makes a ton of sense, especially since there isn't much in terms of FA at the C position.

[alarp33]

 

I would argue that Realmuto is a move for 2019 and 2020 as well, not as much 2018. You said yourself that you aren't writing Sano and Buxton off. I tend to agree for the record, but I think both need some minor league time and I think 2018 is pretty much toast at this point (baring something miraculous this weekend). 

 

The team has enough surplus in the farm system to get Realmuto, especially if it's willing to put Lewis or Gordon along with one of their near ready AAA pitchers on the block. If the window of contention is still open (and despite what appears to be a lost season, I think it's fair to say that it is), adding a piece like that makes a ton of sense, especially since there isn't much in terms of FA at the C position.

 

Of course its a move for 2019 an 2020. I'm saying as we sit here today on 6/16, Sano in in A ball, Buxton has hardly played all year, Polanco popped for steroids, etc. Why is NOW the time to be talking about trading high end prospects. It is possible as we sit here tofday that this Twins "core" stinks, and they are no where near contention next year. In that case, why would you give up a potential high high end prospect like Lewis to get Realmuto to play for a losing team for 2 years?

[alarp33]

 

The poster you are defending was talking about the Yankees, and in the course of talking about the Yankees he said: "Severino is their best pitcher. Their big trade (Sonny Gray) has been mediocre at best."

He was speaking in the present, and I have put the Ryan era behind me. That's why I assumed the poster was talking about the Sonny Gray trade discussion from last summer, not the Sonny Gray thread you found from three seasons ago. That's why I called that poster's recollection wrong when maybe it was my recollection that was wrong for forgetting that old thread existed, or not leaving open the possibility such a thread might exist.

 

You think the paragraph about trading for Tulo or Lucroy, or the numerous trade discussions about Sonny Gray for Berrios (the paragraph you highlighted) was being written about the Yankees?

[USAFChief]

You think the paragraph about trading for Tulo or Lucroy, or the numerous trade discussions about Sonny Gray for Berrios (the paragraph you highlighted) was being written about the Yankees?

There were not “numerous discussions about Sonny Gray for Berrios.” There was one article years ago in which a couple posters proposed the idea.

[USAFChief]

Of course its a move for 2019 an 2020. I'm saying as we sit here today on 6/16, Sano in in A ball, Buxton has hardly played all year, Polanco popped for steroids, etc. Why is NOW the time to be talking about trading high end prospects. It is possible as we sit here tofday that this Twins "core" stinks, and they are no where near contention next year. In that case, why would you give up a potential high high end prospect like Lewis to get Realmuto to play for a losing team for 2 years?

I imagine you wrote off the Twins last summer too.

 

Either way, I have no interest in watching the Twins decide “we’re not contenders now, nor will we be in the next few years.” I want them to do what it takes to BE contenders. If Buxton/Sano are busts, oh well. We’re in big trouble anyway, and the road to a WS is long no matter if they “build the farm” or not.

 

Realmuto fits on this team. Other that Lewis, anyone in the farm should be available to go get him. That’s exactly what real big league teams do. They get good players. In every way, not just by waiting for their farm system to poop them out.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You think the paragraph about trading for Tulo or Lucroy, or the numerous trade discussions about Sonny Gray for Berrios (the paragraph you highlighted) was being written about the Yankees?

No.

[alarp33]

 

There were not “numerous discussions about Sonny Gray for Berrios.” There was one article years ago in which a couple posters proposed the idea.

 

There was a 5 page thread on here that you commented on multiple times. He called the poster "completely wrong" about there being Berrios for Gray discussions and said it had never been discussed until last summer

[alarp33]

 

I imagine you wrote off the Twins last summer too.

Either way, I have no interest in watching the Twins decide “we’re not contenders now, nor will we be in the next few years.” I want them to do what it takes to BE contenders. If Buxton/Sano are busts, oh well. We’re in big trouble anyway, and the road to a WS is long no matter if they “build the farm” or not.

Realmuto fits on this team. Other that Lewis, anyone in the farm should be available to go get him. That’s exactly what real big league teams do. They get good players. In every way, not just by waiting for their farm system to poop them out.

 

You have written you are interested in building the farm, but also are saying the Twins should trade for Realmuto whether they are good or not.  I'm sorry but that is nonsensical.  What good does Realmuto do for a 70 win team?  That is not how good teams are built. The Astros didn't trade for Verlander in 2015, they traded for him in 2017 when they were on the cusp of a World Series.  Getting ONE good player ,which Realmuto certainly is, does not make a significant difference. The Twins desperately need Sano/Buxton/Kepler/Polanco to become a big part of the future, or Realmuto would spend 2 years on a non-contender.  

 

For what it's worth, I definitely would not rule out trading for him this winter. I would like to see progress from the 4 listed above, see what other plans they have to fill out the roster in FA, etc. I am saying right now it makes very little sense.  

 

The path to a contention is not and never has been emptying the farm system for 1 above avg piece.  If Realmuto doesn't cost Lewis, he costs probably 3 of the next 4 on your top 10 prospect list. 

[Mike Sixel]

How does trading for one player empty the farm? And if the second or third best catcher in the game is only above average, we have a different understanding of value.

[alarp33]

 

How does trading for one player empty the farm? And if the second or third best catcher in the game is only above average, we have a different understanding of value.

 

Because good players with 2 years of control left cost a lot of prospects on the trade market? 

 

Apologies for calling him above avg, let me know what the appropriate adjective would be for the future

[alarp33]

Based on what the Marlins have been seeking from other teams (Robles AND Soto from WAS), Lewis and Kiriloff is probably only a starting point, I'm guessing you would need to throw in at least one other very good piece, maybe two.  

[USAFChief]

You have written you are interested in building the farm, but also are saying the Twins should trade for Realmuto whether they are good or not. I'm sorry but that is nonsensical. What good does Realmuto do for a 70 win team? That is not how good teams are built. The Astros didn't trade for Verlander in 2015, they traded for him in 2017 when they were on the cusp of a World Series. Getting ONE good player ,which Realmuto certainly is, does not make a significant difference. The Twins desperately need Sano/Buxton/Kepler/Polanco to become a big part of the future, or Realmuto would spend 2 years on a non-contender.

 

For what it's worth, I definitely would not rule out trading for him this winter. I would like to see progress from the 4 listed above, see what other plans they have to fill out the roster in FA, etc. I am saying right now it makes very little sense.

 

The path to a contention is not and never has been emptying the farm system for 1 above avg piece. If Realmuto doesn't cost Lewis, he costs probably 3 of the next 4 on your top 10 prospect list.

 

I’ve written that “building the farm” is a completely meaningless term. Everyone builds the farm. The Twins will build the farm with 25 or so new players in the coming days.

 

What you are advocating is trading away major league players for minor league players.

 

I have zero interest in that.

 

And by the way, if trading for Realmuto “empties the farm” then the Twins have no farm anyway.

 

And to end this, where it started, the Twins should have tried hard to trade for Verlander last summer. They’d be better off today. They should be looking into trading for Realmuto today. They should look to acquire any good major league player that circumstance has put into play. Good major league players are what you HOPE those precious minor leaguers become some day. Let someone else play for 2021.

[ewen21]

 

Nobody--NOBODY--is arguing against building their farm system.

 

Some of us are arguing you can use that farm system for more than improving the Ft Myers W/L record. You don't have to sit around on your hands and wait for years for the perfect confluence of talent to arrive at the big leagues all at the same time. 

 

Please stop putting words in other poster's mouths. 

Reminds me of the "can't mortgage the future" BS Terry Ryan threw out there during the 2006 season.  we could have easily dished off Slowey for a veteran bat to give that team some teeth.  I am a big believer that if you have enough young players having success in 2006 you HAVE TO trade assets in the farm system to attempt to make a serious run and getting to the WS.  Strike when the iron is hot and this team never EVER did that.

 

Instead we had Eeyore for a GM

[Otto von Ballpark]

Based on what the Marlins have been seeking from other teams (Robles AND Soto from WAS), Lewis and Kiriloff is probably only a starting point, I'm guessing you would need to throw in at least one other very good piece, maybe two.

Washington wasn't willing to trade either, much less both. I suspect any such demands from Miami were posturing rather than negotiation, and not really reflective of what an actual return would need to look like. I don't think they'd actually nickel and dime the Twins if we really offered Lewis and Kirilloff (not that I advocate such an offer).

[Major League Ready]

 

If the goal posts are going to keep moving, there's no point continuing this.

I am not moving the goal posts. You have insisted for as long as I can remember the failure of the Twins organization is a product of unwillingness to sign the top free agents or trade prospects. Cleveland is a very good example of how a mid market team can not only contend but sustain winning. I assume you are suggesting that because Cleveland did not draft some of their key players it does not count. Those players were acquired before being proven. It fits squarely in with the kind of approach I am supporting. It is the opposite of trading prospects and that $60M contract for Encarnacion is the biggest I can ever remember them signing. There approach and their team is without question built on acquisition and development the prospects and elite free agents have nothing to do with their success. You are unwilling to acknowledge this so you say I am moving the goal posts.