2017 MLB draft thread

[beckmt]

Still want a pitcher.  Not McKay, but one of the others.  Probably prefer Greene, but his downside does scare me a bit.  Will be OK with whom the Twins take, be it Greene, Wright or Gore, but will get the pitchforks and tar out if it is McKay. 

[Mike Sixel]

Yup, I've soured on McKay as a pitcher.

 

I'm on the same path as most others, I'll be happy they took Greene, Wright or Gore. Of course, I don't have dozens of scouts working for me and this isn't my job.....so I'll try not to be too disappointed if they take someone else. I suspect I'd fail...

[gunnarthor]

Pipeline's best tools article is here ---> http://m.mlb.com/news/article/234394848/2017-draft-prospects-with-the-best-tools/

 

Lot of the guys you've been reading about are mentioned prominently. Adell seems very toolsy.

[twinsfanstreif]

I'm starting to jump on board the Gore train.He looks like he could eventually be the best of the bunch and we could probably get him for a discount. I like Greene still but 100 mph pitchers scare me as very few have been able to maintain that kind of velocity without a lengthy injury history. I really just don't like McKay, he seems like his ceiling is Barry Zito on the mound and at 1st base he reminds me of Yonder Alonzo coming out of college with a little less power, not exactly 1-1 stuff. I like Wright but I'm really concerned that multiple mechanics people have stated potential injury concerns with him, I don't know a ton in that field but there's definitely some smoke on that one, that being said I would welcome him, I'm just cautious. I feel at this point like Gore or Lewis would be great options

[laloesch]

Was really high on Greene for months, but are now rooting for Wright.  Realize that Greene has the higher ceiling but i prefer a college starter who should be able to hit the majors a lot sooner hopefully in time to help this young core before they start hitting free agency.  

 

That said, i wouldn't fault the Twins for gambling and taking Greene.  His lack of secondary stuff really scares me though.  If only he had a strong offspeed out pitch like a change, slider or curve then this decision would a lot harder for me.  Otherwise he reminds me of Chapman more than anything else and he's a LONG LONG way off from the majors.

 

I realize everyone says draft the best player available, but this year i think they HAVE to draft the best starting pitcher available.  Especially after giving up on Jay as a starter and Stewart appearing to be a bust pick.  They need starters NOW!   

[Willihammer]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/234510922/derek-falvey-looks-to-help-twins-in-the-draft/
 

 

The club has full scouting reports going back to roughly 1999, and Falvey has not only spent time looking at this year's prospects, but he has also gone back and analyzed prospects from previous Drafts.

"I've read more than is probably appropriate," Falvey said with a laugh. "I've tried to just identify some trends, or we've had some of our guys look at reports and see things that maybe we've historically been really good at, or areas we've missed a bit in the Draft."

Since being hired in November, Falvey has maintained that much of his first year will be spent analyzing his own organization, and essentially scouting his own scouts isn't any different.

"Organization-wide we've been doing that," Falvey said. "We're trying to learn who people are, hoping that they embrace the idea of change and development. But we trust these guys. I'm confident in that."

 

[Twins33]

I think people are getting too caught up in the quick to the majors thing. By that I mean, the fact that Wright is seen as quick to the majors is a bonus. I think that's how most of us feel. It's not the one and only reason he's wanted. He has number one upside, that's why people want him. If he didn't, then I'm not sure people would want him. I know I wouldn't.

 

Wright, in my eyes, is way better than Eades/Wimmers/Gibson and any other quick to the majors guy the Twins have taken lately. I don't think any of them had Wright's ceiling/floor.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think people are getting too caught up in the quick to the majors thing. By that I mean, the fact that Wright is seen as quick to the majors is a bonus. I think that's how most of us feel. It's not the one and only reason he's wanted. He has number one upside, that's why people want him. If he didn't, then I'm not sure people would want him. I know I wouldn't.

Wright, in my eyes, is way better than Eades/Wimmers/Gibson and any other quick to the majors guy the Twins have taken lately. I don't think any of them had Wright's ceiling/floor.

 

Agreed. Quickness to the majors is just gravy IMO. The team should be more concerned about ceiling, and getting the best possible player. Whether they make the majors in 1 year or 5 years makes no difference to me. 

[laloesch]

 

I think people are getting too caught up in the quick to the majors thing. By that I mean, the fact that Wright is seen as quick to the majors is a bonus. I think that's how most of us feel. It's not the one and only reason he's wanted. He has number one upside, that's why people want him. If he didn't, then I'm not sure people would want him. I know I wouldn't.

Wright, in my eyes, is way better than Eades/Wimmers/Gibson and any other quick to the majors guy the Twins have taken lately. I don't think any of them had Wright's ceiling/floor.

 

Like i said in another draft thread, i was really high on Greene a few months back but now prefer Wright.  Guy has a good mix of pitches, command and pure stuff.  

 

I agree.  He appears to be head and shoulders better than Eades, Wimmers and Gibson.  I would hope so at 1-1.    

 

I don't think the quick path to the majors thing is overblown though.  Twins need starters NOW!  At least while that young core is still together.  And it still may be too late by the time he gets to the majors and becomes effective.  They may only get a couple shots at the playoffs while Sano is still a Twin before commanding ridiculous amounts of money.  

 

Even more proof that the Jay and Stewart picks really hurt.  

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Wright, in my eyes, is way better than Eades/Wimmers/Gibson and any other quick to the majors guy the Twins have taken lately. I don't think any of them had Wright's ceiling/floor.

People have a very short memory, Kyle Gibson was a guaranteed Top 10 if not Top 5 pick in the 2009  Draft before the stress fracture  Here's Gibson's report going into the 2009 Draft:

 

 

 

For the third time in four years, Missouri will have a pitcher taken early in the first round. Gibson doesn't have the arm strength of Max Scherzer (2006, Diamondbacks) or Aaron Crow (2008, Nationals), but he may wind up being the best pitcher of the three. He relies on two-seam fastballs more than four-seamers, usually pitching at 88-91 mph with good sink and tailing action, though he can reach back for 94 mph when needed. He has two of the better secondary pitches in the draft, a crisp 82-85 mph slider and a deceptive changeup with fade that can generate swings and misses. All of his offerings play up because he has excellent command and pitchability. He repeats his smooth delivery easily, and his 6-foot-6, 208-pound frame allows him to throw on a steep downhill plane. If there's a knock on Gibson, it's that he hasn't added much velocity during his three years with the Tigers, but that hasn't stopped him from succeeding as soon as he stepped on campus. He led Team USA's college team with five wins last summer, including a victory in the gold-medal game at the the FISU World Championships. He was a lock to go in the top 10 picks before a stress fracture sidelined him just a week before the draft.

[Twins33]

I don't thing the quick path to the majors thing is overblown though.  Twins need starters NOW!  At least while that young core is still together.  And it still may be too late by the time he gets to the majors and becomes effective.  They may only get a couple shots at the playoffs while Sano is still a Twin before commanding ridiculous amounts of money.

 

Agreed, but my post was more for people who were acting like the only reason to take Wright was because he could be quick to the majors. Maybe that wasn't the intent of their posts, but it was the way some of them came off. Quick to the majors should always be considered a bonus only, and with Wright it is.

[Twins33]

People have a very short memory, Kyle Gibson was a guaranteed Top 10 if not Top 5 pick in the 2009 Draft before the stress fracture Here's Gibson's report going into the 2009 Draft:

i actually remember that, but again, I don't think Gibson had number one upside. I know I didn't think so. He was a three at best for me. McKay actually reminds me of Gibson.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

i actually remember that, but again, I don't thing Gibson had number one upside. I know I didn't think so. He was a three at best for me. McKay actually reminds me of Gibson.

Well in that draft, he was considered the best college pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg and considered a #2/#3 much like Wright is today.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, Gibson was in a different world than Eades and Wimmers. I read one knock - maybe from Klaw - that said some scouts didn't think Gibson had the "meanness" to be a FOR guy but he was definitely a good pick for where the Twins were drafting. That said, I think Wright has the potential to be a true 1/2 type where Gibson was a 2/3 type. 

 

I hope Falvey is able to figure out why Gibson isn't as good as we expected. Were our expectations too high? Was i the injury? It is lack of command?

[Twins33]

Well in that draft, he was considered the best college pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg and considered a #2/#3 much like Wright is today.

Yikes I do not remember that. That's extremely bad results/scouting or a poor draft class then, was worth the risk at 22. Would not have been a good top five pick at all.

 

I never saw him as more than a three (Gibson) and I feel Wright's stuff is much better. I don't know more than I read/watch though.

[gunnarthor]

 

Yikes I do not remember that. That's extremely bad results/scouting or a poor draft class then, was worth the risk at 22. Would not have been a good top five pick at all.

I never saw him as more than a three (Gibson) and I feel Wright's stuff is much better. I don't know more than I read/watch though.

Drafts are hard. Here's the first round of the 09 draft - http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=1&year_ID=2009&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

Leake was considered a relatively safe but low ceiling college arm and he'd probably go 4th now. The 2nd- 4th rounds combined for more 20+ WAR players than the entire first and supp rounds did.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Drafts are hard. Here's the first round of the 09 draft - http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=1&year_ID=2009&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

Leake was considered a relatively safe but low ceiling college arm and he'd probably go 4th now. The 2nd- 4th rounds combined for more 20+ WAR players than the entire first and supp rounds did.

 

Really? Trout alone has 51. who is in those other rounds?

[Twins33]

Drafts are hard. Here's the first round of the 09 draft - http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=1&year_ID=2009&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

Leake was considered a relatively safe but low ceiling college arm and he'd probably go 4th now. The 2nd- 4th rounds combined for more 20+ WAR players than the entire first and supp rounds did.

Trout is so ridiculous.

 

I'm fine with gambling on Gibson at 22, but if the Twins had a top 10 pick he wouldn't have been on my radar at all as a fan. Trying to remember who I even liked back then, but I'm failing. I follow the draft way more now than I did then. Comes with the sucking I guess.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Yeah, Gibson was in a different world than Eades and Wimmers. I read one knock - maybe from Klaw - that said some scouts didn't think Gibson had the "meanness" to be a FOR guy but he was definitely a good pick for where the Twins were drafting. That said, I think Wright has the potential to be a true 1/2 type where Gibson was a 2/3 type. 

 

I hope Falvey is able to figure out why Gibson isn't as good as we expected. Were our expectations too high? Was i the injury? It is lack of command?

Well that is the nature of the draft, even with the best scouting you still don't know what you are fully getting until you get out from under the tree, unwrap it and start to play with it.  Wright is more of a #2 than a true ace, there are only a handful of those guys in MLB.  

 

Here are scouting reports on Gibson the following years:

 

After 2009

Minnesota believes his fastball will be a swing-and-miss pitch, as his plus slider already is. It sits at 82-85 mph when he's at his best and has sharp movement and good depth. His changeup gives him a third pitch with plus potential, and at times it's as good as his slider. The forearm injury scared off some clubs, as it's often a precursor to elbow damage. Some scouts thought Gibson trusted his offspeed stuff so much that he didn't learn to pitch off his fastball, so the Twins will emphasize that in his first pro season.

 

After 2010

He works off the fastball more now than he did as an amateur, but Gibson's secondary pitches remain his primary weapons for getting swings and misses. His slider is a plus offering that helps him generate plenty of groundballs-2.77 groundouts for every airout in 2010-and some scouts project it as a future 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. His changeup at times equals his slider as a present plus pitch, with similar sink to his two-seamer. His command, control and makeup all enhance his total package.The Twins see him as a future No. 2 starter on a playoff club-he'd need more fastball to qualify as a true ace-and even more skeptical scouts outside the organization see him as no worse than a No. 3.

 

After 2011

After doctors diagnosed a muscle strain and a ligament tear in his elbow in July, he had Tommy John surgery. Before he got hurt, Gibson pitched with a 91-92 mph fastball with late sink and threw it for consistent strikes. He manipulates his fastball well, making it run, sink or cut at will and using it to set up his pair of above-average secondary pitches. Both his changeup and slider can generate swings and misses. As the season progressed, his fastball lost velocity and his slider lost sharpness, and it became obvious he was hurt. He may not pitch until the second half of 2012 at the earliest, and Minnesota likely won't get a great read on Gibson until 2013, when he'll be 25. If his stuff and above-average control return, he should be able to establish himself as a solid No. 2 or 3 starter.

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I really wonder where Seth Romero ends up.  He could be available at 35/37. 

[Mike Sixel]

Skeptical scouts see him as a 3......that's not much skepticism! wow.

 

sometimes, the best people, using the best process, don't product results that are expected. 

[nicksaviking]

****Moderator Note*****

 

I am going to merge this one with the previous one simply because we are likely going to have a draft tracker thread and threads regarding each of the day one picks. By merging this with the old one we'll have the one "pre-draft" thread which won't get lost in the shuffle and I know is a popular spot for posters to check out to play the Hindsight Game later.

[nicksaviking]

 

Trout is so ridiculous.

I'm fine with gambling on Gibson at 22, but if the Twins had a top 10 pick he wouldn't have been on my radar at all as a fan. Trying to remember who I even liked back then, but I'm failing. I follow the draft way more now than I did then. Comes with the sucking I guess.

 

I remember who I liked: Zach Wheeler and Jacob Turner and Aaron Crow was my favorite non-Strausburg college arm.

 

Nailed it!

[gunnarthor]

 

Really? Trout alone has 51. who is in those other rounds?

The 1st and supp had only Strasburg and Trout who have surpassed 20 WAR.  The 2nd and 3rd had Arenado, Kipnis, Seager who have all topped 20 WAR. Brandon Belt (18 WAR) went in the 5th. Goldy (30WAR) and Dozier (19) went in the 8th round.  Keukal went in the 7th round. I think all of those guys would be drafted in the top 10 if the draft was redone today.

[bird]

 

I remember who I liked: Zach Wheeler and Jacob Turner and Aaron Crow was my favorite non-Strausburg college arm.

 

Nailed it!

 

Regardless of where he might've been picked prior to injury, Gibson was the 15th pitcher selected in 2009, and only 5 of those have more WAR: Strasberg, Leake, Minor, Storen, and Miller. Meaning 9 pitchers selected ahead of Gibson have posted less WAR than he has. I seem to recall a good number of the earlier picks being regarded as highly or even higher than Gibson, guys like Hobgood, Wheeler, Turner, Crowe, and Matzek come to mind.

 

What's instructive for me is that 4 of the 5 with higher WAR were picked among the first 10 picks. So yes, your odds are really great if the name is Strasberg, and your chances are greatly improved with a top 5+ pick, but the risks are still huge with pitchers. And while a case can be made for Wright over Gore, its just like 2009, when the best evaluators in the business were forced to guess who would ultimately be of value. Would it be Crowe, Turner, or Matzek, or Leake, Minor, and Storen? Whoda thunk?

[bird]

On the other hand, you can't lump a guy like Wright in with Eades or Wimmers. Eades was the 23rd pitcher taken his draft year, and he's one of 16 of them who has not produced one positive digit of WAR, and only 2 guys have given their team 2 WAR. Out of 23. From 2013. I'm not sure any of those prospects, with the exception of Jon Gray, were projected to be particularly fast risers in the way they speak of Wright.

 

Wimmers was the 12th pitcher taken, and he has the 5th highest WAR, sadly enough. He's been edged out of the lead by Sale, Harvey, Pomeranz, and now Taillon.   No one mistook Wimmers for any of those guys.

 

I guess this tells me that taking Wright is cool, but if they have a high conviction level about Gore and it gives them a chance or two later that they otherwise wouldn't have, I think that would be interesting.

[Vanimal46]

Since there has been a lot of talk on here about going under slot and using it to the team's advantage. This is Eric Longenhagen's thoughts on it FWIW:

Estuve

12:03 How much cheaper would Gore have to be than Greene for you to draft him if you were in charge of a team with a top pick (let's say the Reds)?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:04 I'm just taking the one I think is better. More uniform bonus amounts from pick to pick means under slot deals are harder to come by.

[nicksaviking]

 

Since there has been a lot of talk on here about going under slot and using it to the team's advantage. This is Eric Longenhagen's thoughts on it FWIW:

Estuve

12:03 How much cheaper would Gore have to be than Greene for you to draft him if you were in charge of a team with a top pick (let's say the Reds)?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:04 I'm just taking the one I think is better. More uniform bonus amounts from pick to pick means under slot deals are harder to come by.

 

Agree, take your favorite. You'd have to be 100% certain you can get your secondary target at 35 to try the underslot route.

[nicksaviking]

Does anyone know what role in the draft process Falvey and Lavine had with their previous teams? The meaning of Darin Johnson's promotion has been debated but as far as I know there haven't been any talk about any outside hires to be a keystone of the draft process. That leads me to believe that unlike Terry Ryan before, either Falvey, Lavine or both are much more hands on with the process this year.

 

Just wondering if we know who is doing what and who's opinion carries the most weight.

[Vanimal46]

Here are a couple of draft notes from Eric Longenhagen:

"I’ve heard Mississippi State 1B Brent Rooker and Missouri State 3B Jake Burger are at or near the top of the Trackman exit-velocity leaderboard among college prospects. Keep in mind not all prospects are measured as frequently (or at all) as other college prospects who have a Trackman at their home park. Rooker’s draft position is still hard to gauge at this point, but Burger’s range for selection seems to be the between picks 11 and 17."

"The player in whose stock teams are most curious is Texas prep righty Shane Baz. Baz has monster stuff — a mid-90s fastball and chance for a plus slider and curveball — and is a top-15 talent because of it, but there has been talk about teams picking early in round two trying to move him back there if they can save money with their first pick. I’ve also heard rumors about Baz being a tough sign, and some teams think the rumor is being spread as part of the effort to get him to the second round, but it sounds like his commitment to TCU is actually quite strong. I think he might go as early as fifth overall and that plenty of teams picking in the middle of the first round would draft him were a team to try to get him to slip."