About that farm system..

[VirginSturgeon]

 

IMO the org still lacks from the same three areas that it has lacked for a decade.

1. Catching depth- absolutely zero noteworthy prospects to speak of. Murphy is nada, Garver is maybe a backup. No starter potential to be found anywhere.

2. Front of the rotation SP- it's better than it has been, but it's still pretty bare.

3. Power- not much

 

We have hit home runs in 16 straight games.  Are we really going to say we have a lack of power in the lineup?  We may not have 3 or 4 elite power hitters.  The lineup does have plenty of options that could put up 15 to 25 HR's every year up and down the lineup.  I like the balance better than hoping for 1 or 2 guys to save the day.   

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not overly fixated on in-season attendance change. Kick-start the rebuild with serious talent, and attendance will respond in its own usual manner. I dispute the wisdom of waiting until the team is winning and attendance is higher to match, to open the checkbook a bit more. You hold back only if you doubt your talent evaluation skills.

That was the intent of my statement. If the 2017 Twins win 82 games, the front office will have a pretty solid idea what attendance will look like in 2018, particularly the first half of the season. That's the time to open the checkbook and push for higher 2018-2019 attendance (particularly 2019 attendance due to the seasonal lag), not the other way around.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Levi made the comment that the Twins have far less prospect capital than the Cubs. Sickles graded 14 Twins prospects as B- or better at the start of the season, and 8 of those are pitchers. He graded 12 Cubs prospects as B- or better, with 6 of those being pitchers. I'm not willing to have my own opinion on the matter, but when I look at those grades, I can't accept the opinion that the Cubs' prospect capital is far greater. BTW, 10 teams had more than 14 prospects that earned a grade of B- or better, and 4 teams had more than 8 pitching prospects graded that highly.

 

I have to ask for more detail.  How about B+ or better?  Having 10 B and B- and 4 that are B+ or better is not the same as 8 B+ or better and 4 B/B-.  Or however it breaks down.  One elite talent is worth quite a bit more than a handful of B- guys.

 

But I don't know how that breaks down.

[DaveW]

When it comes to SP prospects, the Twins are in the bottom five in all the major leagues. They need help, asap.

[Han Joelo]

 

I think what they thought of the prospect prior to the injury has a major bearing. A good example is the Mariners #1 from 2016, Kyle Lewis. He tore his ACL and MCL last July, but is still #30 in the BA rankings, having only played about a month of Minor League Ball, last year. Contrast that to Alex Kirilloff, who blew out his elbow this spring for the Twins and had a nice season at rooking ball for the Twins last year. He was picked just 4 slots after Lewis, and  has an injury that is much less devastating to a hitter but is not even ranked. My guess is for Kirilloff that if he had a good month at Cedar Rapids to start the year, he'd be somewhere on this list, but the injury coupled with lack of previous high ranking will hold him back. 

Thanks for sharing this tidbit.  Not knowing anything about Lewis, and only a little about Kiriloff, I can only assume this indicates a high level of personal bias on the part of the ranker.  He liked Lewis a lot before the draft, ranked him higher right after, and essentially used Kiriloff's injury against him to not rank him.

 

Not saying it will happen, but Kiriloff and Javier, to name just two examples (maybe the only two!) could well be top 20 prospects in a year and a half.  What then?  Do we jump in a time machine and erase the angst we are feeling right now because they aren't showing up at all?  

 

This whole ranking deal is just a series of still frames in a moving picture--"movie" as they call them for short.  This particular still doesn't happen to show a whole lot.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

We have hit home runs in 16 straight games.  Are we really going to say we have a lack of power in the lineup?  We may not have 3 or 4 elite power hitters.  The lineup does have plenty of options that could put up 15 to 25 HR's every year up and down the lineup.  I like the balance better than hoping for 1 or 2 guys to save the day.   

 

Welcome to the site!

 

I think that was referring to the minor league system, not the major league system, lacking power.

[DaveW]

We have hit home runs in 16 straight games. Are we really going to say we have a lack of power in the lineup? We may not have 3 or 4 elite power hitters. The lineup does have plenty of options that could put up 15 to 25 HR's every year up and down the lineup. I like the balance better than hoping for 1 or 2 guys to save the day.

I was talking about the minor leagues.

[gunnarthor]

 

When it comes to SP prospects, the Twins are in the bottom five in all the major leagues. They need help, asap.

I think this statement is probably false but I haven't looked at all the other teams systems. On what basis do you have the Twins that low?

[DaveW]

I think this statement is probably false but I haven't looked at all the other teams systems. On what basis do you have the Twins that low?

I have looked at every other teams prospect lists.

[bird]

 

I have to ask for more detail.  How about B+ or better?  Having 10 B and B- and 4 that are B+ or better is not the same as 8 B+ or better and 4 B/B-.  Or however it breaks down.  One elite talent is worth quite a bit more than a handful of B- guys.

 

But I don't know how that breaks down.

 

 

The Cubs have Dylan Cease graded as a B+, and the next pitcher is a B grade. However, they haveone prospect, Eloy Jiminez, a high-profile IFA, graded as an A-. I agree that having one of the dozen or so prospects that Sickles gives a grade of A- or better is a separator both in terms of the rankings and in reality. Sano and Buxton are examples of that. Not picking on you, but my point is that so often the prospect talent gap isn't as wide as people think.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Cubs have Dylan Cease graded as a B+, and the next pitcher is a B grade. However, they haveone prospect, Eloy Jiminez, a high-profile IFA, graded as an A-. I agree that having one of the dozen or so prospects that Sickles gives a grade of A- or better is a separator both in terms of the rankings and in reality. Sano and Buxton are examples of that. Not picking on you, but my point is that so often the prospect talent gap isn't as wide as people think.

 

No, that's fine, I was just curious how it broke down.  The way you phrased it made it sound like a quantity over quality measure.

 

I would venture to guess most analysts would still say the quality of the Cubs system is a decent margin better than ours.  At least the rankings I've seen seem to indicate that.

[bird]

 

When it comes to SP prospects, the Twins are in the bottom five in all the major leagues. They need help, asap.

 

Based on...?

[bird]

 

I have looked at every other teams prospect lists.

 

 

So have Law and Sickles. I'm quite fond of their credentials. They disagree with you.

[DaveW]

So have Law and Sickles. I'm quite fond of their credentials. They disagree with you.

Do they? When it comes to SP?

 

(Berrios isn't in the farm system any more FYI)

[bird]

 

No, that's fine, I was just curious how it broke down.  The way you phrased it made it sound like a quantity over quality measure.

 

I would venture to guess most analysts would still say the quality of the Cubs system is a decent margin better than ours.  At least the rankings I've seen seem to indicate that.

 

 

Yes, I think that's the perception, and it may or may not be an accurate one. That's why I like to look at grades given out in a "vacuum", Sickles-style and try to quantify it a bit. I think that even the better analysts are prone to reputation bias, including Sickles, whereby the more high-profile prospects are often accorded the benefit of the doubt initially and maybe penalized more severely when they suffer injuries or become prospect-fatigued. Like Dylan Bundy for example.

 

And I see real problems with trying to qualify things with the kind of certainty that is often expressed. I take the system rankings with a huge grain of salt. When 65% of your first-half first-rounders either never make a club or never make a difference, and that moves up to 80% for second-half picks, I'm going to be skeptical of opinions espousing a massive talent advantage. Too many of the most prized prospects go the way of Kyle Zimmer, Brady Aiken, Mark Appel, and Tyler Kolek. So yes, give me numbers in addition to a high-profile prospect or three.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I have looked at every other teams prospect lists.

Essentially, I think Romero, Mejia, Jorge and Wells have pitched well enough to give us some depth without considering the SP who haven't thrown a pitch yet (Gonsalves, Thorpe, Ynoa) or are struggling (Stewart).  

[DaveW]

I do not believe you.

 

Essentially, I think Romero, Mejia, Jorge and Wells have pitched well enough to give us some depth without considering the SP who haven't thrown a pitch yet (Gonsalves, Thorpe, Ynoa) or are struggling (Stewart).

Very few guys that can be more than a #4/#5 in this org.

 

That's why they are ranked so low.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So yes, give me numbers in addition to a high-profile prospect or three.

 

Well, numbers are great and all, but high profile guys are high profile for a reason.  They're less likely to bust and more likely to impact.  Numbers are nice, but it's a low bar to clear.

[gunnarthor]

 

Very few guys that can be more than a #4/#5 in this org.

That's why they are ranked so low.

Sure, we all agree that they don't have the aces in the system anymore but that doesn't mean they're a bottom five system for SP, either. Mejia, for example, is a ML-ready back end starter. The real kind, not the Albers kind. So, again, where is this ranking you are finding?

[bird]

 

Do they? When it comes to SP?

(Berrios isn't in the farm system any more FYI)

 

Yes, Dave, they do disagree with you. Even when it comes to SP only. And I'd suspect even with this new information about Berrios no longer in the system, and thank you for that information  . Caveat: I don't recall Law or Sickles describing any team as being in the top 5 or bottom 5 in terms of pitching talent. That kind of declaration would probably require more hubris than they'd want their readers to notice. From all that I've read from them and others, they certainly aren't raving about the pitching talent in the system. They're simply acknowledging that, despite the lack of high-profile talent, there is a relatively higher quantity of impressive power arms with a chance to make a difference in the high minors and some talent lower in the system with a chance to emerge. 

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

I think Falvey and Levine need to start weeding the Twins minor league garden.  They have a bunch of org filler types that are way too old for the level they are at.  Org fillers are important, make no mistake.  There is no such thing as a minor league team with 25 prospects on it.  But when you have a bunch of guys that simply don't fit, eventually you have to say goodbye.

 

It sounds odd, but it almost has to start in AAA I think.  The Twins need to look at the AAA roster and say, "Would I call _______ up if someone got hurt?"  If the answer to that question is "no", then they probably need to be released, unless he is a prospect.  That is why Ben Paulsen was released.  He was at the bottom of the corner OF/1b/DH logjam.  A lot of the time, you want your prospects to get X number of PA or IP at AAA before evaluating his MLB readiness.  That's not limited to "young" guys.  The Twins took a flier on Nik Turley this offseason and assigned him to AA to start the season, despite his being 27 years old.  OK.  Fine.  He never has had prolonged AAA success, so that was probably the right call.  But then something happened.  Something wonderful, perhaps.  He blew AA hitters away.  To the tune of nearly 2 K per IP.  He earned a promotion to AAA, made two so so appearances and was...

 

sent back to AA, where he promptly struck out 9 in 4 innings.

 

What?

 

Is Nik Turley the savior of the Twins rotation (or bullpen)? Doubtful.  Could he help?  Maybe.  But IMO the Twins will get a better answer to that question by having Turley face AAA hitters, some of whom have actually been in the bigs.

 

In another head scratching move, 28 year old (yes, 28 - that's not a typo) former first round pick Alex Wimmers was sent to AA, where he will compete for innings with Melotakis, Burdi, Bard, Rosario and Curtiss, among others.

 

What??

 

Why??

 

Why not just release him?  This is pro baseball.  Guys get released everyday.  It isn't pleasant for the guy that has to tell the player, but that's part of the job.

 

IMO, the Twins brass needs to decide who they want to look at and who they have seen enough of and make the appropriate roster moves. To those saying, "Relax, it's 6 weeks into a 6 month season. Plenty of time. yadda, yadda, yadda"

 

Is it?  Pitchers and catchers reported in mid February.  That's 3 months ago.  IMO that should be enough to evaluate some of these guys that were barely able to make rosters in the first place.

[DaveW]

Sure, we all agree that they don't have the aces in the system anymore but that doesn't mean they're a bottom five system for SP, either. Mejia, for example, is a ML-ready back end starter. The real kind, not the Albers kind. So, again, where is this ranking you are finding?

Yes, Mejia is a #4/#5, just like most of the rest of them in the org. That's the problem.

[bird]

 

Well, numbers are great and all, but high profile guys are high profile for a reason.  They're less likely to bust and more likely to impact.  Numbers are nice, but it's a low bar to clear.

 

I'm talking about numbers of players that guys like Sickles view as real prospects, and of course his C grades will bust more often than his B grades, etc. And let's keep in mind that there's a certain arbitrariness in all of it. KC's B grade pitcher, Strahm, is getting eaten alive in MLB. They'd probably love to send him to us if they could choose from our B-/C+ list that includes guys like Mejia, Burdi, Thorpe, Shaggy, Ynoa, Jorge... CWS's B- Adams is toiling in AAA and they would probably trade him for any one of KC's 6 C+ prospects right now. So. that's a long way of saying that once we filter out the really really elite prospects, it's very much to your advantage to have 21 C+ prospects like the Twins have instead of 9 like KC has. And that it's fair to judge a system to a substantial degree on the basis of its higher-quality (C+) depth.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So. that's a long way of saying that once we filter out the really really elite prospects, it's very much to your advantage to have 21 C+ prospects like the Twins have instead of 9 like KC has. And that it's fair to judge a system to a substantial degree on the basis of its higher-quality (C+) depth.

 

Well of course it's to your advantage.  It's also fair to point out that most people put depth below high end talent.  And they do so for a reason, one is much easier to attain than the other.  (And obtain as well)

 

Either way, we don't disagree.  I think the term "barren" is inappropriate, but we're also not as good as we should be even with the graduations that have happened.

[DaveW]

Here you guys go.

 

[gunnarthor]

Doesn't Sickels' comment "mid tier at best, probably bottom tier" suggest it's better than bottom five?  

[Mike Sixel]

Just checked Fangraphs beginning of the year top 100 (not "just missed), and 6 teams don't have a pitcher in the top 100 (note, if there is a team(s) with no top 100 player at all, that would increase the numbers). The Twins are 1 of those.

 

Indeed, the Twins have 1 player in his top 100, Nick Gordon. 

 

btw, the Cubs are one of those w/o a top 100 pitcher....

[gunnarthor]

 

Yes, Mejia is a #4/#5, just like most of the rest of them in the org. That's the problem.

What do you think most teams have?  There are very few 1/2 in the minors. A few more threes. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Just checked Fangraphs beginning of the year top 100 (not "just missed), and 6 teams don't have a pitcher in the top 100 (note, if there is a team(s) with no top 100 player at all, that would increase the numbers). The Twins are 1 of those.

 

Indeed, the Twins have 1 player in his top 100, Nick Gordon. 

Wasn't fangraphs the high man on Romero?

[DaveW]

Doesn't Sickels' comment "mid tier at best, probably bottom tier" suggest it's better than bottom five?

Bottom tier suggests somewhere in the bottom 10.

 

I personally see them as bottom 5 because of the lack up high upside arms.

 

Either way, this helps prove that I'm clearly not the only one who thinks the Twins farm system is bad in re: Starting pitching.

 

Frankly, the Twins have finished last 5 out of 6 years, there is zero reason why they shouldn't have one of the BEST systems in re: to SP with all of those intl dollars, high draft picks etc

 

It's not like a ton of goodnpitchers have graduated during this time as well.

 

Berrios, and that's it over the last 5 years.