About that farm system..

[drjim]

Well, Meyer was highly rated (which helped the rankings). Stewart was highly rated (which helped the ratings) and a few other pitchers (like Jay) who went plop too (May got jerked around). Berrios might make it, might not, but likely is a #3 at best in the majors. Buxton may never be the player that deserved the ratings he had for years. Rosario isn't a starter in the long term, Sano is a beast of a hitter and Kepler is likely going to be a quality regular.

 

All teams have players in their system that become starters

That last sentence isn't true. Probably at least 5 teams right now have systems that won't produce 1 starter as good as any the Twins have graduated the last two years.

 

And the pitching you mentioned, while currently struggling, isn't dead yet.

[yarnivek1972]

yeah, when Sano, Grossman, Santana and Escobar would be put out there quite often (though not at the same time, though that might have worked. :-)

 

I never compared Rosario to Jacque defensively, though Rosario does/did have brainfarts on where to throw the ball sometimes which is irritating. I haven't seen much of that this year.

 

Jacque kept losing the ball in the roof.

There were also those 12 hoppers to second or the ball that landed 10 rows up behind home plate...

[TheLeviathan]

I think it's fair to point out that for a long time we applauded our farm system and at least some of that was based on how Stewart and Jay factored into the rankings.  The failure of those two picks has huge ramifications and it's fair to say we might have inflated our expectations in part because of those players being overrated.  

 

Most of what we're banking our future on were signed in the international market by a completely different GM and (likely) very different scouts than the ones we're relying on for the draft.  The failures in our drafting simply can't be understated.  It's been bad.

 

I hope most of the time and effort our new FO has put in has been concentrated on rectifying that problem.  

[Guest]

Marte won't even be in the top 10 this offseason.

Last year's #1 (Maitan) is now #2 in Atlanta's system and last year's #2 Morejon) is now #3 in San Diego's system, both of which are considered to have much better systems than the Twins. Marte is considered to be #2 this year. These ratings don't mean much and you could be right that Marte won't rank higher than Jay, Stewart or Blankenhorn (#s 5, 6 and 7 per MLB), but he should if he's as good as touted.

[drjim]

Last year's #1 (Maitan) is now #2 in Atlanta's system and last year's #2 Morejon) is now #3 in San Diego's system, both of which are considered to have much better systems than the Twins. Marte is considered to be #2 this year. These ratings don't mean much and you could be right that Marte won't rank higher than Jay, Stewart or Blankenhorn (#s 5, 6 and 7 per MLB), but he should if he's as good as touted.

Won't rank ahead of someone like Javier either, prossibly not the 35 and 37 picks either. But thinking some more, he probably will sneak into the top 10, and could move fast.

 

He's off the radar a little because he's in extended and had some injurues last year, but Javier could very easily end up at #3 and sneaking into top 100s this offseason (assuming health).

[DocBauer]

Going back to the original post, I would tend to agree there seems to be a general lack of impact talent in the Twins system, at least at the moment.

 

But rankings like this, especially only a month in to the season, just don't bother me. Frankly, I find them to be simple kindling. And these things ARE cyclical as guys wash out, become traded, or arrive at the ML level.

 

Mike alluded to it, but I'll take the arrow and say it: "a lot of top Twins prospects HAVE graduated to the ML level. That's a fact. Does it excuse some poor draft choices? Absolutely not. But it is a reality of rankings rising and lowering.

 

Injuries are also a factor. Khirloff is done for the year. Reliever or not, Jay had talent and is hurt. Gonzalez has been hurt. Chargois has been hurt. Granite just started playing. Reliever never seem to rank very high, but they are important. And the Twins not only need some, they have several getting close.

 

Once the draft is done, and the season is done, these types of rankings will change a lot.

[DocBauer]

As to the scouting department, like the entire FO, field management and coaching and procedure, the milb players themselves, there is no doubt a lot of evaluation taking place. I am certain there will be guys coming and going. But I also agree with the principal that it would dark near impossible for the new leadership to come in last November and just go down a lost and play a game of "he goes and he stays" until they have time to watch and review.

[drjim]

As to the scouting department, like the entire FO, field management and coaching and procedure, the milb players themselves, there is no doubt a lot of evaluation taking place. I am certain there will be guys coming and going. But I also agree with the principal that it would dark near impossible for the new leadership to come in last November and just go down a lost and play a game of "he goes and he stays" until they have time to watch and review.

One thing Falvey said when he first started, and I'm paraphrasing, is that he thinks there are good people here and he wants to see how they do with more resources and support.

 

He might be right! For example, it seems that Jack Goins group has about doubled in size sice they took over. With more staffing and a change of emphasis, it might bring more out of the current front office. Makes sense to take a year and find out, while also starting the process of bringing in your own people, such as here:

 

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/05/twins-hired-baseball-ops-assistant-front-office-continues-grow/

[Mike Sixel]

Posting with two outs.... Whichever scout recommended Kintzler deserves credit.

[Riverbrian]

6 of the top 7 farm systems were heavily built by trades. 

 

Braves, Yankees, Padres, White Sox, Rockies and Brewers have acquired top end prospects that currently sit at or near the top of their respective systems.  

 

Currently in the Minors... The Twins have only 5 players total acquired via trade. Mejia, Palka, Murphy, Busenitz and the new guy Chapman. 

 

It's like they are ignoring an avenue of acquisition that other struggling teams don't ignore.

 

You probably won't see a lot of trade acquisitions in the minors with the Dodgers or Red Sox but those two teams are in a trade youth for MLB Talent position. 

 

5 players acquired is an awfully low number for a team that has lost as many games as we have. Is it because our tradeable vets have little trade value? Is it a refusal to part with those vets? Is it a mis-assessment that we are at the same competitive level of the Dodgers or Red Sox. Is it all of that or none of that or somewhere in between. 

 

5 is a low number... that's my opinion and it seems like the failure to acquire high end minor league talent via trade is a bigger factor than the mistaken drafting of Jay or Stewart. 

[drjim]

6 of the top 7 farm systems were heavily built by trades.

 

Braves, Yankees, Padres, White Sox, Rockies and Brewers have acquired top end prospects that currently sit at or near the top of their respective systems.

 

Currently in the Minors... The Twins have only 5 players total acquired via trade. Mejia, Palka, Murphy, Busenitz and the new guy Chapman.

 

It's like they are ignoring an avenue of acquisition that other struggling teams don't ignore.

 

You probably won't see a lot of trade acquisitions in the minors with the Dodgers or Red Sox but those two teams are in a trade youth for MLB Talent position.

 

5 players acquired is an awfully low number for a team that has lost as many games as we have. Is it because our tradeable vets have little trade value? Is it a refusal to part with those vets? Is it a mis-assessment that we are at the same competitive level of the Dodgers or Red Sox. Is it all of that or none of that or somewhere in between.

 

5 is a low number... that's my opinion and it seems like the failure to acquire high end minor league talent via trade is a bigger factor than the mistaken drafting of Jay or Stewart.

Yes sir. There are certainly individual moves/decisions that were bad, but that is true of any organization. It is the failure to add talent via trade that is by far the biggest black mark of the Ryan regime. Really inexplicable.

[Seth Stohs]

 

But to me, those seem like the kinds of incremental changes any team might do.  Even an "old school" one after a 103 loss season

 

Sure... but it goes back to the discussion of whether it's smarter to completely blow up things or to make incremental changes and give people a chance to show what they can do under the new regime. There was a lot of talent under Ryan (players and front office and scouts), so let Falvine evaluate them for this season and then make changes. They've made some easy moves so far... I'm sure there'll be more.

 

But everyone knows how important this pick is at 1.1 (and having two more before pick 40), so they've made moves, they've brought everyone together to get the big picture, they've got a new guy in charge of making the picks and Falvey and Levine have been active participants. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mind you, I am not criticizing the current FO (too much anyway ) when I note their similarities to the previous FO. Just an observation. If anything, I am ramping up to give more credit to TR...

[nytwinsfan]

Wade, Romero, and Gonsalves (if he recovers from his injury) are all in the 100-150 range I would argue. Arguably Mejia too. Plus we'll get another top 25 prospect in early June with the draft. 

[beckmt]

A lot of the Twins better talent is High A or lower.  That will certainly reduce the overall ranking.That does not mean there is not talent there.  Plus injuries have hurt, wait until and end of year evaluations to bring out the pitchforks.  My guess is the Twins will be close to or in the top 10 at the end of the year.

[Guest]

I'd say this certainly applies to pitching but it's hard to say the Twins have done a poor job of developing position players.

It seems they've done a great job of identifying players, but an odd job of developing them and keeping them healthy.

[bird]

 

....Diaz is a 1b/DH in low A, he's not cracking the top 100 lists. Was Burdi on top 100 lists?

 

Diaz has a chance to make the lists. Others have a better shot. Burdi made it onto the tail end of a list or two, but never onto KLAW's or MLB.

[bird]

 

The farm system is fine, and the majors are a tweak away....and people felt Ryan should be fired? Help me out here....

 

 

Sure, easy. Ryan was fired because of the W-L record. They told us that. No one ever mentioned anything about the farm system.

 

The system is fine. It cycled down due to graduations and other factors ( a bad first round pick, which BTW everyone has, and a few key injuries). The great news is that its low point is to be a middle of the road system in the short term. No big deal. The 2017 draft and a good return for Dozier alone will change this conversation.

 

 

[whydidnt]

I mean, there was a change at the top of the scouting department, the front office has brought them all together (including with coaching staffs and such) to all get on one page, and 2-3 scouts left and they've brought in a couple more. A few have moved around.

 

Well, they moved the #1 guy up, and the #2 guy to #1. I don't really consider that change. Where is a different vision, or a different view on things? Why couldn't they have brought someone else that might have had new ideas? I'm sure there are lot of talented guys in the Twins scouting department, and all of them know more about baseball than I do. BUT, what we've been doing hasn't been working, so that means we can't keep doing the same thing, and expecting different results.

[whydidnt]

 

The system is fine. It cycled down due to graduations and other factors ( a bad first round pick, which BTW everyone has, and a few key injuries). The great news is that its low point is to be a middle of the road system in the short term. No big deal. The 2017 draft and a good return for Dozier alone will change this conversation.

And this is the crux of the question. What makes you think that this years draft is going to help? What pick in the last 5 years gives you any confidence that the scouts can identify the right players? It's not just one bad first round pick that I question, it's multiple, heck even Gordon wasn't a great pick if you consider where he was picked and his long term potential at this point. It's multiple bad first round picks coupled with multiple poor 2nd and 3rd round picks. Considering how high the Twins were drafting most of these years, shouldn't a few of these guys have emerged by now? What makes 2017 different than 2015, 14, 13, etc?

[whydidnt]

Wade, Romero, and Gonsalves (if he recovers from his injury) are all in the 100-150 range I would argue. Arguably Mejia too. Plus we'll get another top 25 prospect in early June with the draft.

 

And most teams have 2 guys from 100-150 as well, it's just the law of numbers. So maybe we have 1 more guy in this range than other teams. That's not really significant, and doesn't make up for the lack of impact players in our system.

[bird]

 

Ok, for those of you that turned "bare" into "barren" there is a difference. Bare means minimal or barely sufficient, barren means completely gone or devoid of talent. I'll give you that the Angels are Barren, but it doesn't change the fact that the Twins Minor League system is bare. That fact is doubly concerning, since we've been picking so high recently.

As far the response that we have a lot of talent "below the line" of 100; that doesn't change anything. Almost every organization can say the same thing. The problem with the Twins system is they have not been identifying the right players to draft or sign internationally. I think a lot of that rides on the scouting department, especially since the Twins under Terry Ryan placed great emphasis on scouting. Back to one of my original points, what has changed in our scouting department to give anyone any confidence that these guys aren't going to blow this years draft as well?

I know Falvey and Levine are new, but frankly they really haven't done anything different in the 6+ months they've been in charge than the previous regime - at least not from a visible viewpoint.

 

 

Saying the Twins farm system is bare is factually inaccurate. If you read any of the pundits, they are fairly uniform in their descriptions. Not one of them describes the system as bare, or with any language that would hint at that.

 

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but in my mind, you're making the same old tired blanket statements about bad scouting that are not supported by making genuine comparisons of the results of other teams confronted with similar opportunities and barriers. I'm sorry, but its a hollow argument. And it's just plain ridiculous to act as if they're in line to "blow" another draft. Contrary to your belief, the system is fine, the scouting talent is fine, and that's the reason Falvey hasn't made the wholesale changes so many rather simplistically argue is necessary.

 

Come talk to me about how bad the scouting is when Sano gets MVP consideration, Buxton becomes an all-star. Kepler, Rosario, Dozier, Vargas, Mauer, Duffey, Rogers, Berrios...this group alone represents a good argument that calling the organization's scouting bad is farcical.

[whydidnt]

Saying the Twins farm system is bare is factually inaccurate. If you read any of the pundits, they are fairly uniform in their descriptions. Not one of them describes the system as bare, or with any language that would hint at that.

 

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but in my mind, you're making the same old tired blanket statements about bad scouting that are not supported by making genuine comparisons of the results of other teams confronted with similar opportunities and barriers. I'm sorry, but its a hollow argument. And it's just plain ridiculous to act as if they're in line to "blow" another draft. Contrary to your belief, the system is fine, the scouting talent is fine, and that's the reason Falvey hasn't made the wholesale changes so many rather simplistically argue is necessary.

 

Come talk to me about how bad the scouting is when Sano gets MVP consideration, Buxton becomes an all-star. Kepler, Rosario, Dozier, Vargas, Mauer, Duffey, Rogers, Berrios...this group alone represents a good argument that calling the organization's scouting bad is farcical.

Yes and all of this valuable talent that this fine scouting staff has brought in has led us to the the worst record in the major leagues over the last 5 years. They are certainly the finest scouts in baseball, it's not their fault the guys we draft don't perform well enough to win more than 59 games.

 

Seriously, come talk to me about our fantastic talent when the Twins put together a few years of good baseball. The Twins were the worst team in baseball last year, that is a fact. They currently have very little by way of impact players in their minor league system, that is also a fact, according to most "experts". Yet somehow both these situations happened despite being as good or better at scouting than all 32 other teams.

 

You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but the results have been speaking loud and clear for the last several years. And by the way the results are a "comparison of other teams with same barriers". It's farcical to suggest that it's just bad luck that put the Twins in the situation they have been in the last 5 years.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Well, they moved the #1 guy up, and the #2 guy to #1. I don't really consider that change. Where is a different vision, or a different view on things? Why couldn't they have brought someone else that might have had new ideas? I'm sure there are lot of talented guys in the Twins scouting department, and all of them know more about baseball than I do. BUT, what we've been doing hasn't been working, so that means we can't keep doing the same thing, and expecting different results.

 

Isn't that different vision or those different views on things from falvey and levine, who are leading things... And Deron Johnson got a 'promotion' but not really... Sean Johnson is very good and ready to do things well!

[whydidnt]

Isn't that different vision or those different views on things from falvey and levine, who are leading things... And Deron Johnson got a 'promotion' but not really... Sean Johnson is very good and ready to do things well!

I hope you're right. My preference would have been to bring in an outside guy, but maybe things will really be different.

[bird]

 

6 of the top 7 farm systems were heavily built by trades. 

 

Braves, Yankees, Padres, White Sox, Rockies and Brewers have acquired top end prospects that currently sit at or near the top of their respective systems.  

 

Currently in the Minors... The Twins have only 5 players total acquired via trade. Mejia, Palka, Murphy, Busenitz and the new guy Chapman. 

 

It's like they are ignoring an avenue of acquisition that other struggling teams don't ignore.

 

You probably won't see a lot of trade acquisitions in the minors with the Dodgers or Red Sox but those two teams are in a trade youth for MLB Talent position. 

 

5 players acquired is an awfully low number for a team that has lost as many games as we have. Is it because our tradeable vets have little trade value? Is it a refusal to part with those vets? Is it a mis-assessment that we are at the same competitive level of the Dodgers or Red Sox. Is it all of that or none of that or somewhere in between. 

 

5 is a low number... that's my opinion and it seems like the failure to acquire high end minor league talent via trade is a bigger factor than the mistaken drafting of Jay or Stewart. 

 

 

Trading vets is an important avenue for sustaining or improving a system. I believe that this low number speaks to Ryan's most glaring weakness, which was his "sell discipline". But to be fair, we had a lengthy period there where we lacked high-value tradeable vets as well. And other than perhaps Dozier, we still aren't blessed with a lot of current assets to trade for future assets (prospects).

[bird]

 

And this is the crux of the question. What makes you think that this years draft is going to help? What pick in the last 5 years gives you any confidence that the scouts can identify the right players? It's not just one bad first round pick that I question, it's multiple, heck even Gordon wasn't a great pick if you consider where he was picked and his long term potential at this point. It's multiple bad first round picks coupled with multiple poor 2nd and 3rd round picks. Considering how high the Twins were drafting most of these years, shouldn't a few of these guys have emerged by now? What makes 2017 different than 2015, 14, 13, etc?

 

 

First of all, what conclusions are you drawing about 2013, 14, 15, and 16? And why mention five years and then exclude 2012?

 

Let's add some context to things as we talk about the five years you think are so dreadful:

 

2012: Buxton. What would you have done? Enough said. And he's not the only good scouting decision from 2012.

 

2013: Mark Appel, Jon Gray, Trey Ball, Phil Bickford, and Kohl Stewart were the pitchers taken among the first 10 picks. The experts said there was a huge drop-off after Appel, Bryant, and Gray. Very few criticized the Stewart selection, but in retrospect, we can see it as a mistake. &%%& happens.

 

2014: Gordon is looking like a great pick. Again, the top three guys stood out as a step better (Aiken, Kolek, Rodon).  Would you trade Gordon for Kolek or Aiken? Pitchers taken after Gordon, Nola, Freeland and Hoffman? I'll keep Gordon, thank you. You can't call this selection "bad scouting".

 

2015: Jay looks like he might be an unfortunate selection. Dillon Tate went one pick ahead of Jay. I personally think Jay will have a greater impact as a pro than Carson Fulmer, the next pitcher taken. One wonders if the pressure to solve the pitching woes factored into the decision here.

 

2016: Kiriloff was the 15th pick in the first round. Any attempt to either laud or criticize this pick at this time would be silly.

 

2017: It appears that three players are being clumped together as separating themselves (Greene, McKay, and Wright) and the Twins are known to have been very actively scouting all three of them, and that includes Falvey himself and other people new to the organization.

 

They have made multiple selections in the last several years that most experts would consider to have been very solid, and that includes picks in subsequent rounds of the draft. Guys like Duffey and Rogers and Chargois and Burdi for example. Our expectations should always be that, like every team, we'll have a first round dud every third year or so, but I would submit to you that your lack of confidence is unwarranted.

[bird]

 

Yes and all of this valuable talent that this fine scouting staff has brought in has led us to the the worst record in the major leagues over the last 5 years. They are certainly the finest scouts in baseball, it's not their fault the guys we draft don't perform well enough to win more than 59 games.

 

What you're suggesting is understandable. In fact, I'd guess the most common conclusion people reach regarding the cause of the poor record is that it's a product of poor scouting and poor drafting. I reject this argument. I believe the poor record is primarily due to a failure to acquire talent from all of the other available means, the failure to sell high and buy low in general, and because of financial limitations, most of which were self-imposed and many of which no longer are problematic.

 

[whydidnt]

First of all, what conclusions are you drawing about 2013, 14, 15, and 16? And why mention five years and then exclude 2012?...

 

They have made multiple selections in the last several years that most experts would consider to have been very solid, and that includes picks in subsequent rounds of the draft. Guys like Duffey and Rogers and Chargois and Burdi for example. Our expectations should always be that, like every team, we'll have a first round dud every third year or so, but I would submit to you that your lack of confidence is unwarranted.

I didn't specifically exclude 2012, you missed the etc. I guess. As for the specifics of each draft, it's easy to pick a guy selected later in the draft that has done better than the Twins player, but reality is every team can say that. However, my point is that you have to squint pretty hard to find a Twins selection that other teams say that about, particularly in the first round. What if the Twins had taken Benedentini instead of Jay or Turner instead of Gordon? (yes, I am cherry picking, but that's kind of my point). Any one of us off the street can build an aggregate list of the "experts" picks and end up making picks like that agreee with what the experts suggest. You would hope the money spent on scouting would allow the team to find an unexpected "gem" every couple of years.

 

I'll leave you with this and why I have concerns. Name the last pitcher drafted by the Twins that has made a significant contribution to the team. I'm probably missing somebody, but I think we probably have to go back to Baker or Slowey to find that guy. Duffey, Rogers, Berrios, etc. might, but with 3/4 of those guys already in the pen, Berrios appears to be the only hope we have from the last several years. Something is wrong, most likely it's not solely the scouting department's fault, but they surely must share some of the blame.

 

Other than that, thanks for the great points, you have definitely given me some things to think about, it was a great eye-opener looking back at the first round of the last several years of draft and seeing the relatively high rate of failure across the league.

[whydidnt]

What you're suggesting is understandable. In fact, I'd guess the most common conclusion people reach regarding the cause of the poor record is that it's a product of poor scouting and poor drafting. I reject this argument. I believe the poor record is primarily due to a failure to acquire talent from all of the other available means, the failure to sell high and buy low in general, and because of financial limitations, most of which were self-imposed and many of which no longer are problematic.

I do agree that those other areas are key contributors, but I don't think we can dismiss the lack of success from draft picks completely either. If they had hit on 2 or 3 more high picks, we probably wouldn't even be having this discussion.