Imagining a trade for David Robertson

[Willihammer]

In this thread we are operating under the assumption that the stars aligned this year and now is the time to "go for it." First, the facts:

 

David Robertson is a 32 year old veteran of 10 years. He has a career 11.9 K/9 and 2.80 FIP. A righthander, he has reverse platoon splits owing to a hammer curveball that devastates lefthanded batters. He is in year 3 of a 4 year, 46m contract. He's owed $12m in 2017 and $13m in 2018. He had knee surgery in the offseason but is showing no ill effects. His curveball is getting whiffs at a 50% rate and his velocity is steady. A typical batted ball will be in the air with an exit velo in the high 80s.

 

Last February there was heavy speculation about trade interest from the Nationals. One of the rumored deals was that the White Sox would send David Robertson plus eat some of his salary in exchange for 23 year old catching prospect Pedro Severino. Severino was on the 40 man and had two option years remaining. This seemingly was too great an ask for the Nationals and the deal failed.

 

In another rumor, a CWS-NYM deal would have involved 24 year old Mets outfielder Michael Conforto. Conforto is a significantly better prospects. Drafted #10 in 2014, he has already reached the majors and is doing well. He's controlled through 2021. This too was too much of an ask for the Mets and no deal was struck.

 

So if there is any truth to these rumors the price point for a deal appears to be just south of a big league ready position player with multiple years of team control and decent upside. Perhaps they're a bit desperate for a catcher.

 

What could the Twins offer at that price point?

[Mike Sixel]

 

In this thread we are operating under the assumption that the stars aligned this year and now is the time to "go for it." First, the facts:

 

David Robertson is a 32 year old veteran of 10 years. He has a career 11.9 K/9 and 2.80 FIP. A righthander, he has reverse platoon splits owing to a hammer curveball that devastates lefthanded batters. He is in year 3 of a 4 year, 46m contract. He's owed $12m in 2017 and $13m in 2018. He had knee surgery in the offseason but far is showing no ill effects show far. His trademark curveball is getting whiffs at a 50% rate and his velocity is steady. A typical batted ball will be in the air with an exit velo in the high 80s.

 

Last February there was speculation about interest from the Nationals. One of the rumored deals was that the White Sox would send David Robertson plus eat some of his salary in exchange for 23 year old catching prospect Pedro Severino. Severino was a 40 man prospect who had two option years remaining. This seemingly was too great an ask for the Nationals and the deal failed.

 

In another rumor, a CWS-NYM deal would have involved 24 year old Mets outfielder Michael Conforto. Conforto is a significantly better prospects. Drafted #10 in 2014, he has already reached the majors and is doing well. He's controlled through 2021. This too was too much of an ask for the Mets and no deal was struck.

 

So if there is any truth to these rumors the price point for a deal appears to be just south of a big league ready position player with multiple years of team control and decent upside. Perhaps they're a bit more desperate for a catcher than an outfielder.

 

What could the Twins offer at that price point?

 

The Twins have 1 of those, Nick Gordon. I guess maybe Garver would fill that, but you'd have throw in more than Garver. Probably Garver and Gonsalves or just below Gonsalves in ability. Maybe you could do it for Garver, Wade (or Granite) and a lesser SP prospect.

 

No way I trade Nick Gordon for 1.5 years of a RP. I doubt everyone will agree on that, btw, and that's cool.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins have 1 of those, Nick Gordon. I guess maybe Garver would fill that, but you'd have throw in more than Garver. Probably Garver and Gonsalves or just below Gonsalves in ability. Maybe you could do it for Garver, Wade (or Granite) and a lesser SP prospect.

 

No way I trade Nick Gordon for 1.5 years of a RP. I doubt everyone will agree on that, btw, and that's cool.

If Gordon settles into a .720 OPS guy again, maybe you think twice about trading for a reliever.

 

But the .800+ OPS Gordon? Nuh-uh. No way.

[cmoss84]

I have a feeling Robertson ends up in Washington when it's all said and done. Their pen needs help. Badly. Basically the only missing piece to that puzzle.

 

I would love to trade for him, but not for Gordon. I like Robertson, but not that much. 

[Thrylos]

I would not trade anyone with any potential to a team within the division. 

[Willihammer]

I don't think Gordon is a great fit here. In a vacuum that's probably a fair price (maybe even an overpay) but CWS just locked in Tim Anderson for the forseeable future. Also the Twins don't really have another legit SS in the system unless you are really high on Polanco's defense.

 

Would Garver alone get it done? He looks every bit as good as Severino to me. Similar timeline. Also fits with the Twins medium term outlook having locked in Castro.

[markos]

I'm don't have a good feel for valuing Robertson. He isn't exactly in the same category as Chapman/Miller/Davis; maybe closer to the Melancon/Kimbrel level. Considering he is more than a rental, I'm guessing the White Sox are looking for a consensus top-100 prospect plus another prospect with upside. Given the cost of relievers over the past couple of trade deadlines, I don't have much interest in having the Twins dive into that market. I'd rather seen them roll the dice with the young guys instead.

[TheLeviathan]

Nothing short of Gordon and I wouldn't do that.

[yarnivek1972]

I guess I feel the Twins are in better position to take care of the bullpen In house than they are the rotation.  If any trades are made, the goal should be improving the starting rotation.

[bluechipper]

If the Twins are in it come trade deadline, and the asking price is Nick Gordon, I'd pass and try to go after more of an 8th inning setup guy.

[goulik]

Candidates I see that could have value and may be at positions where we are overstocked could include players like Granite/Wade/Palka, blocked by our current 4 outfielders, Park blocked by Mauer/Vargas, and Vielma/Gordon blocked by Polanco/Escobar/Dozier.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Candidates I see that could have value and may be at positions where we are overstocked could include players like Granite/Wade/Palka, blocked by our current 4 outfielders, Park blocked by Mauer/Vargas, and Vielma/Gordon blocked by Polanco/Escobar/Dozier.

 

i don't think Palka is much of a prospect.

 

Wade, Granite, Gordon, Vielma, Garver are it for close position players. Not even sure how many good position players there are below that, that aren't hurt or come with huge question marks.

 

I'd think one or more of the SP in low A or A+ or AA could be tradeable and have value also.

[Willihammer]

Its not that farfetched to think the Twins could ride the current trio of outfielders for the next 4-5 years, making Granite, Wade, Palka (am I forgetting anyone?) redundant.

 

Wade for Robertson. Who says no first?

[FlauerPauer]

Gordon may be a little much considering his year so far this year, but if he's already being pushed to second to split time Vielma is he viewed as a long term shortstop for the MLB club.  I understand the thinking of getting both of them starts; however, I would think that the organization would want to entrench their shortstop of the future at that position.

 

I also think we may be undervaluing Gordon a little bit.  Baseball America ranks him as the Twins best prospect while Severino is ranked as the Nat's #9 prospect.  The systems of the two teams are comparable when looking at various farm system rankings.  The Nat's may have been stupid to not make that trade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Its not that farfetched to think the Twins could ride the current trio of outfielders for the next 4-5 years, making Granite, Wade, Palka (am I forgetting anyone?) redundant.

 

Wade for Robertson. Who says no first?

 

White Sox, imo. Is Wade on a single top 150 list, or even 200 list?

 

I do that trade all day if I'm the Twins. They have 2-3 starting OFers (or, they are screwed anyway) and Granite and Grossman.....they don't have a Robertson.

[Willihammer]

 

White Sox, imo. Is Wade on a single top 150 list, or even 200 list?

 

I do that trade all day if I'm the Twins. They have 2-3 starting OFers (or, they are screwed anyway) and Granite and Grossman.....they don't have a Robertson.

Maybe that's not a requirement though. Severino wasn't on any of the top 100 lists. Of course that deal was just a rumor so who knows.

 

We know that Robertson, while very good, is also expensive and a bit old. Remember it was the Nats who supposedly walked away from a Severino for Robertson trade. According to the rumor they wanted to trade Norris instead.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe that's not a requirement though. Severino wasn't on any of the top 100 lists. Of course that deal was just a rumor so who knows.

 

We know that Robertson, while very good, is also expensive and a bit old. Remember it was the Nats who supposedly walked away from a Severino for Robertson trade. According to the rumor they wanted to trade Norris instead.

 

Fair. We don't know what offers are real or not real. But I'd do Wade for Robertson, under the rules you posted at the top (that they were real contenders).

[Darius]

I'd be even more dumbfounded by the FO's decision making if they trade significant prospects (especially a potential SS prospect) for a reliever.

 

There have been two consecutive offseason to sign competent relievers to short-term, affordable deals. Passing on that, just to give away high-end prospects, in what is now a relatively baron system with the graduation of numerous kids, would be infuriating. Especially considering the whole premise for not signing competent relievers was the depth of power arms at RP in the minors that they have yet to give a shot.

 

At this point, I'd prefer they deal with the bed they made themselves, and figure it out internally. This team isn't going anywhere significant with this starting rotation, anyway.

[flags]

i thought we learned our lesson about trading young prospects for relief pitchers with the wilson ramos/matt capps trade.  or at least i hope we learned that lesson

[Mike Sixel]

i thought we learned our lesson about trading young prospects for relief pitchers with the wilson ramos/matt capps trade. or at least i hope we learned that lesson

Cubs clearly didn't learn the same lesson, or Cleveland....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cubs clearly didn't learn the same lesson, or Cleveland....

Chapman (Aroldis, not Kevin ) and Miller were a different class of relief pitcher, though.  Robertson has a 119 ERA+ in 2+ seasons with the White Sox so far, that's basically pre-2017 Ryan Pressly.

 

And Cubs and Cleveland basically had their playoff tickets printed by that point, with very strong rotations -- they were primarily looking for a postseason edge.  I don't think the Twins could possibly be in that position by the trade deadline 2017.

[Willihammer]

 

 I don't think the Twins could possibly be in that position by the trade deadline 2017.

That's why they should go get Robertson!

 

Also, they are tied for first atm. Its certainly "possible" they'll still be in first in a couple months.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's why they should go get Robertson!

 

Also, they are tied for first atm. Its certainly "possible" they'll still be in first in a couple months.

Being in first place isn't the only condition there -- the Cubs and Cleveland both had arguments for being the best teams in their leagues, largely due to dominant starting pitching.  Unless Berrios dominates MLB like he did AAA, and the Santana/Santiago career years continue, the 2017 Twins are not going to be in *that* position, even if we are technically in first on July 31.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm don't have a good feel for valuing Robertson. He isn't exactly in the same category as Chapman/Miller/Davis; maybe closer to the Melancon/Kimbrel level.

I'd actually put Robertson a step below Melancon/Kimbrel too.  He's given up more hits and HR than those guys recently, put more walks than Melancon, and not quite consistently enough of a K rate to make you forget about that (Fangraphs had him ranking 34th among relievers in K% last year).

 

He's still obviously pretty good, but I have a feeling he would be more of a "good closer" type addition rather than a potential bullpen weapon type.  Not bad, but not something I'd want to pay a trade premium for.  Sign guys towards that goal in the offseason, or promote guys toward that goal midseason instead.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Chapman (Aroldis, not Kevin ) and Miller were a different class of relief pitcher, though.  Robertson has a 119 ERA+ in 2+ seasons with the White Sox so far, that's basically pre-2017 Ryan Pressly.

 

And Cubs and Cleveland basically had their playoff tickets printed by that point, with very strong rotations -- they were primarily looking for a postseason edge.  I don't think the Twins could possibly be in that position by the trade deadline 2017.

 

it's almost like the post I responded to was about making any trade for a RP, and not specific......

 

And, the OP was about "if the Twins are in serious contention", imagine a trade.....I'm trying to play within those rules.

[Willihammer]

 

I'd be even more dumbfounded by the FO's decision making if they trade significant prospects (especially a potential SS prospect) for a reliever.

There have been two consecutive offseason to sign competent relievers to short-term, affordable deals. Passing on that, just to give away high-end prospects, in what is now a relatively baron system with the graduation of numerous kids, would be infuriating. Especially considering the whole premise for not signing competent relievers was the depth of power arms at RP in the minors that they have yet to give a shot.

At this point, I'd prefer they deal with the bed they made themselves, and figure it out internally. This team isn't going anywhere significant with this starting rotation, anyway.

They should have planned better, no question. But who wants to throw away 2017 so we can cry over spilled milk? We're in first place, now!

 

Take the few coins they saved last winter and roll it into a big FA acquisition this winter. In the meantime pay the deadline premium for a multi-year piece that will help in 2017 and 2018 (or longer).

 

Worst case it goes tits up next year and they can flip Robertson for something very close to whatever it takes to get him now!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

it's almost like the post I responded to was about making any trade for a RP, and not specific......

 

And, the OP was about "if the Twins are in serious contention", imagine a trade.....I'm trying to play within those rules.

That's fair.  I'm not opposed to smart trades.  I just doubt a premium RP trade, during the Twins 2017 season, will qualify.

 

Maybe a bigger trade, that also includes a reliever component?  I remember how the Rangers got Jake Diekman in the Cole Hamels deal...

[Willihammer]

 

That's fair.  I'm not opposed to smart trades.  I just doubt a premium RP trade, during the Twins 2017 season, will qualify.

 

Maybe a bigger trade, that also includes a reliever component?  I remember how the Rangers got Jake Diekman in the Cole Hamels deal...

Like a Quintana + Robertson trade?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Like a Quintana + Robertson trade?

Yes.  The White Sox have a few different relievers of value too.  Might be hard to swing that with a division rival, though!

[USAFChief]

Robertson is a nice player, a team need, and should be available at reasonable cost.

 

If in a month the Twins are in it, go for it. Not Gordon, but if they take on the entire salary it wont take that much.