Take a deep breath

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins are 7-6.

 

Using pythag record, the Twins should be 9-4.

 

Using BaseRuns record, the Twins should be 9-4.

 

The Twins have lost one game by more than two runs. One game.

 

On April 1st, I would have been quite happy with a 7-6 record.

 

Does this team have problems? Of course it does. I'd rotate at least one guy, maybe two, off the roster and call up at least Vargas.

 

Are 3-1 losses frustrating? Yes. Are 3-1 losses even more frustrating when the Twins score a single run on nine hits and four walks? Yes, of course, but that happens. It's baseball.

 

Grossman is teeing off on the ball. Brian Dozier is being Brian Dozier. Sano is a beast. Kepler is the player we hoped he would be. Rosario looks to be taking important steps forward. Polanco is also taking steps forward. Escobar is a very solid backup. Castro has been a godsend for the pitching staff.

 

So... Deep breaths.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't care all that much about the record, I care about the next few years. While the start is nice, it is not based on Buxton, Rosario, young starters, or young relievers. Imo, this is not sustainable, nor indicative of good things to come for enough players. Sano can't carry the whole youth movement with just Kepler to help.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't care all that much about the record, I care about the next few years. While the start is nice, it is not based on Buxton, Rosario, young starters, or young relievers. Imo, this is not sustainable, nor indicative of good things to come for enough players. Sano can't carry the whole youth movement with just Kepler to help.

But it's not only Sano and Kepler. By the day, it looks more and more like the Twins picked up a "free prospect" in Grossman. Jorge Polanco not only looks good with the stick but has also held his own at short.

 

Rosario will come around if he keeps doing what he's doing.

 

The remaining problem is Buxton. Yes, it's frustrating to watch him pinwheel at every pitch thrown his way but he's a talented guy... and he's just one guy. An important guy for the franchise to become competitive but still just one guy.

[DaveW]

Twins would be 9-4 if they didn't bring Santana north and give him starts every other day.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Twins would be 9-4 if they didn't bring Santana north and give him starts every other day.

Santana has all of 15 PAs on the season. He's not exactly killing the team.

 

I don't even mind Santana being on the roster if the Twins carry a 12 man pitching staff. It's not the decision I'd make but I simply can't get too worked up about one back of the bench player.

 

But Santana and a 13 man pitching staff is ugh.

[drjim]

 

Santana has all of 15 PAs on the season. He's not exactly killing the team.

 

I don't even mind Santana being on the roster if the Twins carry a 12 man pitching staff. It's not the decision I'd make but I simply can't get too worked up about one back of the bench player.

 

But Santana and a 13 man pitching staff is ugh.

 

That is definitely the problem. Santana can't be one of three bench guys right now. And the amazing thing is the pitching has stepped up to make the 13th pitcher meaningless, but I'm skeptical that it will last.

[Doomtints]

I'm happy with 7-6. I would also be happy with 6-7 or 5-8. The team is playing well but we know they are not going to the playoffs. 

 

What I have seen is impressive and good things are on the horizon.

[Mike Sixel]

 

But it's not only Sano and Kepler. By the day, it looks more and more like the Twins picked up a "free prospect" in Grossman. Jorge Polanco not only looks good with the stick but has also held his own at short.

 

Rosario will come around if he keeps doing what he's doing.

 

The remaining problem is Buxton. Yes, it's frustrating to watch him pinwheel at every pitch thrown his way but he's a talented guy... and he's just one guy. An important guy for the franchise to become competitive but still just one guy.

 

Good point on Polanco. I keep mentioning him in other threads, but didn't here. Ooops. 

 

I have less confidence in Rosario's process changes working for him. And, I see no future parts of the rotation or bullpen right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have less confidence in Rosario's process changes working for him. And, I see no future parts of the rotation or bullpen right now.

Maybe Rosario's changes won't improve his overall offense but I need to see a normalized BABIP before I can make that call.

 

Mejia looked adequate in his last turn. We'll see how that progresses.

 

Duffey has looked pretty good in the bullpen, as has Haley.

 

There are bright spots up and down the roster. Maybe not as many as we'd like but there's certainly reason for hope. Start adding up those players and we're looking at a roster that has around ten guys, age 28 or under, who are at least holding their own.

[drjim]

 

Maybe Rosario's changes won't improve his overall offense but I need to see a normalized BABIP before I can make that call.

 

Mejia looked adequate in his last turn. We'll see how that progresses.

 

Duffey has looked pretty good in the bullpen, as has Haley.

 

There are bright spots up and down the roster. Maybe not as many as we'd like but there's certainly reason for hope. Start adding up those players and we're looking at a roster that has around ten guys, age 28 or under, who are at least holding their own.

 

For me, Buxton is obviously the most depressing, but the only other guy I'm really down on is Gibson. I had hopes he would take a step forward, but likely he's just going to be a middling backend guy.

 

Beyond those two, I think the young guys are doing pretty close to what we could hope for. So I'm not sure what other bright spots we would be fishing for this early. There are a handful of guys that it would be nice to see some production when they get recalled.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For me, Buxton is obviously the most depressing, but the only other guy I'm really down on is Gibson. I had hopes he would take a step forward, but likely he's just going to be a middling backend guy.

I'm not ready to pull the plug on Gibson quite yet but he has frustrated me more than any player on the 2017 Twins.

 

Yes, even more than Danny Santana. I can barely watch a Gibson start without going into rage mode, which tells me I'm having a hard time viewing him objectively.

[Mike Sixel]

I think my view is also tinged by the minors, with Gonsalves hurt and Stewart's start not being stellar.

 

Gibson is the "young" guy I'm most down about (outside Buxton, obviously). I had my hopes up this year. I did pick Mejia as RoY of the year for the Twins, I still think he's a legit #5/4 type. That's nice, and you need those, but you aren't winning any playoff series that way.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think my view is also tinged by the minors, with Gonsalves hurt and Stewart's start not being stellar.

 

Gibson is the "young" guy I'm most down about (outside Buxton, obviously). I had my hopes up this year. I did pick Mejia as RoY of the year for the Twins, I still think he's a legit #5/4 type. That's nice, and you need those, but you aren't winning any playoff series that way.

Yeah, the Gonsalves and Stewart issues are mildly frustrating but they're not next in line for a promotion anyway. That's (obviously) Jose Berrios, who is friggin' killing it in Rochester (again).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, the Gonsalves and Stewart issues are mildly frustrating but they're not next in line for a promotion anyway. That's (obviously) Jose Berrios, who is friggin' killing it in Rochester (again).

 

I expected that, which is also kind of frustrating, that he's down there, not in MN. Not that I know who he should replace right now, yet. 

[drjim]

 

I'm not ready to pull the plug on Gibson quite yet but he has frustrated me more than any player on the 2017 Twins.

 

Yes, even more than Danny Santana. I can barely watch a Gibson start without going into rage mode, which tells me I'm having a hard time viewing him objectively.

 

I don't think you pull the plug on Gibson, but it might be getting to the point that we need to drastically alter expectations. He's probably just a 4-5 guy, which provides value, but also means he'll soon get priced out of being a guy you want to roster.

[gunnarthor]

Nice post, Brock.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I expected that, which is also kind of frustrating, that he's down there, not in MN. Not that I know who he should replace right now, yet. 

With Hughes somehow turning into a right-handed Jamie Moyer, I think Gibson has to be the guy who's on the chopping block.

 

If things hold steady, this is what I'd consider doing on May 1st:

 

1. Cut Tonkin

2. Call up Berrios to replace Gibson

3. Rotate Haley to a sixth inning role

4. Put Gibson in mop-up

5. Cut Santana

6. Promote Vargas

 

An alternate version is to cut two bullpen guys to get the pitching staff down to 12 but I just don't know who to cut right now. They all look okay.

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't think you pull the plug on Gibson, but it might be getting to the point that we need to drastically alter expectations. He's probably just a 4-5 guy, which provides value, but also means he'll soon get priced out of being a guy you want to roster.

 

Concur. He's a cheap option this season, but heading into year 2 of arbitration they need to think about if they really want to give him $5-7 MM or seek better alternatives.  

[Joe A. Preusser]

With Hughes somehow turning into a right-handed Jamie Moyer, I think Gibson has to be the guy who's on the chopping block.

 

If things hold steady, this is what I'd consider doing on May 1st:

 

1. Cut Tonkin

2. Call up Berrios to replace Gibson

3. Rotate Haley to a sixth inning role

4. Put Gibson in mop-up

5. Cut Santana

6. Promote Vargas

 

An alternate version is to cut two bullpen guys to get the pitching staff down to 12 but I just don't know who to cut right now. They all look okay.

Gibson to AAA to work on stuff would get us to 12 pitchers. We already have Haley and Duffman who can give us multiple innings, we certainly don't need a third. I want that extra bat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Gibson to AAA to work on stuff would get us to 12 pitchers. We already have Haley and Duffman who can give us multiple innings, we certainly don't need a third. I want that extra bat.

At this point, I don't want to see Duffey go multiple innings. Maybe 1.1 or 1.2 when needed but he needs to be a 7th/8th inning guy if he keeps doing what he has been doing.

[bluechipper]

Gibson is easily the most frustrating player to watch on this team, and I was thinking his adjustments that he showed in the spring were going to help him take a step forward. Unfortunately, it looks like he is what he is at this point.

[bluechipper]

Regarding the record, 7-6 is a little frustrating. With the pitching we're accustomed to seeing, wasting some of these great pitching performances is disappointing, especially those 2 games to the White Sox.

[Doomtints]

 

For me, Buxton is obviously the most depressing

 

This is surprising. His struggles are not new. He overcame his struggles before, even if for only a little while. He can overcome them again.

 

No need to be depressed about Buxton. He is still lost at the plate (which I expected) but he is even better defensively. He is providing value, just not at the top of the lineup. The Twins should have kept the pressure off and kept him 7th or 8th in the lineup until he got into a groove, but he will get over it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

At this point, I don't want to see Duffey go multiple innings. Maybe 1.1 or 1.2 when needed but he needs to be a 7th/8th inning guy if he keeps doing what he has been doing.

 

Reading this on 538, makes me want Duffey to be Gossage:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers/

 

So, multiple innings, but in a different way.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Reading this on 538, makes me want Duffey to be Gossage:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers/

 

So, multiple innings, but in a different way.

I'd consider that but I worry about breaking down Duffey over the course of a season. It's not as if the Twins have a plethora of young-ish arms who miss bats in the pen.

[Blake]

 

I'm not ready to pull the plug on Gibson quite yet but he has frustrated me more than any player on the 2017 Twins.

 

Yes, even more than Danny Santana. I can barely watch a Gibson start without going into rage mode, which tells me I'm having a hard time viewing him objectively.

I'm disappointed in Gibson because he seems to have all the talent needed to succeed without being able to pull it all together. But, it is what it is and unless something changes in Gibson's mental approach I don't see things changing. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

I don't think you pull the plug on Gibson, but it might be getting to the point that we need to drastically alter expectations. He's probably just a 4-5 guy, which provides value, but also means he'll soon get priced out of being a guy you want to roster.

 

I'm not even sure Gibby is a 4-5 starter at this point. At least not on a competitive team. He consistently can't even go 6 innings, which is generally all you ask of back-end guy. Just be an innings eater and don't dig too big of a hole. Then he goes and puts the team in a hole and burns 3-4 relievers almost every time he's out there.

[lukeduke1980]

 

I'm not even sure Gibby is a 4-5 starter at this point. At least not on a competitive team. He consistently can't even go 6 innings, which is generally all you ask of back-end guy. Just be an innings eater and don't dig too big of a hole. Then he goes and puts the team in a hole and burns 3-4 relievers almost every time he's out there.

He seems to me like more of a NL guy - can give up some hits and walks but get to the pitcher spot to get out of an inning.  

[Taildragger8791]

 

He seems to me like more of a NL guy - can give up some hits and walks but get to the pitcher spot to get out of an inning.  

 

I could kind of see that. And not as much pressure to go deep in the games in that case, since he'll be yanked for a PH by the time he'd usually be knocked out of an AL game anyways.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I would DFA DanSan and bring up Vargas, but there is no way I would have started the season with DanSan on the MLB roster anyway, so...

 

The rotation needs to go through again. I believe even a little more data will help a lot. In the next 9 days (counting today) we have 9 games. Finish with Cleveland, face the White Sox and Tiggers again, and then play the Rangers. At that point we should have a lot more data on all of our pitchers. I want to see:

Mejia - he looks good for a rookie. Can he show some consistency?

Can Santiago continue to somehow get guys out like he's got more talent than we can see?

Can Hughes continue to get guys out while never hitting 92 MPH?

 

Lots of other questions, of course, but we will know a great deal more soon.