Phil Miller piece on Mauer's batting order slot

[spinowner]

I'm surprised nobody has posted this link yet so I'll do it.

 

http://www.startribune.com/joe-mauer-s-lock-on-no-3-lineup-spot-for-the-twins-is-not-a-certainty/415050194/

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't understand how this is even a topic for consideration. Mauer is the natural second hitter in this lineup. Hell, he may be the best option to lead off, too.

 

But not third. No way. Third in the lineup needs, at minimum, doubles power and Mauer lost his doubles ability some time ago. He's purely an on-base hitter at this point and needs to be at the top of the lineup because the Twins lack on-base hitters.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 

Of those 27 home runs Dozier hit while a leadoff hitter, 21 came with the bases empty.

 

*winces*

 

Seriously, how are we even talking about these subjects? Does this team want to score runs or not?

 

Dozier should be third in this lineup, chased by Sano. If things change during the season and Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, etc. step forward, then you make the appropriate changes and shuffle guys around.

[Vanimal46]

Concur, Brock. Start him at #2 in the lineup. If he struggles, he turns into the #7 or #8 hitter. If he struggles more, then it's the bench. 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't really get the psychology here. If he bats first, he feels some different obligation to get on base than if he bats 7th? I do not understand.

[Dantes929]

I would make the case that except for a year or two Mauer should ALWAYS have been in the #2 spot.   When you have guys like Tolbert, Casilla, Gomez and Punto (especially in those player's bad years) in the first two spots and you have guys like Thome, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer in the power spots it is kind of self evident that you want your on base machine to be in the #2 spot instead of so often batting with no one on and two out from the #3 spot.     If he should have been in the #2 spot back in the day when the team OBP was .345 he should definitely be there on a team with decent power but a .316 team OBP. 

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

*winces*

 

Seriously, how are we even talking about these subjects? Does this team want to score runs or not?

 

Dozier should be third in this lineup, chased by Sano. If things change during the season and Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, etc. step forward, then you make the appropriate changes and shuffle guys around.

 

Brock, what would your lineup look like to start the season? This team is so full of unknowns and guys that were good for parts of seasons and terrible for other parts, it's like throwing sticks in the air.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock, what would your lineup look like to start the season? This team is so full of unknowns and guys that were good for parts of seasons and terrible for other parts, it's like throwing sticks in the air.

Dunno, the lefty/righty splits are tough to work into the lineup as efficiently as I'd like. Off the top of my head:

 

1. Polanco

2. Mauer

3. Dozier

4. Sano

5. Kepler

6. Vargas

7. Rosario

8. Castro

9. Buxton

 

Obviously, that lineup would be very fluid and guys would be rotating up/down quickly as the season unfolds. Buxton could easily jump from 9 to 6 in a few weeks, Mauer could fall from 2 to 7 in a few weeks. I don't like Kepler in the 5 spot but Vargas isn't a good option there, either. No one really fits into the 5 spot based on their 2016 performances.

 

Polanco is the gimme choice to lead off, IMO. He's younger than I'd like but he's the only guy on the team with both wheels and the ability to get on base.

[bighat]

1. Bux - CF

2. Mauer - 1B

3. Dozier - 2B

4. Sano - 3B

5. Vargas - DH

6. Polanco - SS

7. Kepler - LF

8. Rosario - RF

9. Castro - C

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

1. Bux - CF

2. Mauer - 1B

3. Dozier - 2B

4. Sano - 3B

5. Vargas - DH

6. Polanco - SS

7. Kepler - LF

8. Rosario - RF

9. Castro - C

Even after Buxton's explosive September, he still finished the season with a .284 OBP. There's no freakin' way he should be near the top of the lineup to start the season.

 

On the other hand, Polanco has always been a strong OBP guy and has an MLB OBP of .340 in 300-ish PAs. He's nearly a perfect fit for leadoff. You'd like a guy with a bit more stolen base ability but he's solid at getting on base and his power is mostly of the doubles variety.

[bird]

 

I don't really get the psychology here. If he bats first, he feels some different obligation to get on base than if he bats 7th? I do not understand.

 

Yeah, this always puzzles me. The guy's going to be the first one up once each game, maybe twice. When he's the second guy to bat in a half-inning, does he need a quick sit-down with a sports shrink?

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Dunno, the lefty/righty splits are tough to work into the lineup as efficiently as I'd like. Off the top of my head:

 

1. Polanco

2. Mauer

3. Dozier

4. Sano

5. Kepler

6. Vargas

7. Rosario

8. Castro

9. Buxton

 

Obviously, that lineup would be very fluid and guys would be rotating up/down quickly as the season unfolds. Buxton could easily jump from 9 to 6 in a few weeks, Mauer could fall from 2 to 7 in a few weeks. I don't like Kepler in the 5 spot but Vargas isn't a good option there, either. No one really fits into the 5 spot based on their 2016 performances.

 

Polanco is the gimme choice to lead off, IMO. He's younger than I'd like but he's the only guy on the team with both wheels and the ability to get on base.

 

This is pretty close to what I was thinking as well. I had Buxton and Rosario switched and Vargas and Kepler switched. Both are placeholders watching what unfolds. 

 

What I'm really curious about is hitting Dozier third. This is the way I original had it drafted as well, but the good old article from Beyond the Box Score arrived at the conclusion that the three-hole hits with less men on base than the 4-5 spot. Taking this for true, I've always wondered about:

 

1. Polanco

2. Mauer

3. Buxton/Kepler/Someone hitting well

4. Sano

5. Dozier

 

--> Dozier protects Sano a bit, and Dozier sees more guys on base perhaps (I could also see their roles reversed depending on how the season goes). 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is pretty close to what I was thinking as well. I had Buxton and Rosario switched and Vargas and Kepler switched. Both are placeholders watching what unfolds. 

 

What I'm really curious about is hitting Dozier third. This is the way I original had it drafted as well, but the good old article from Beyond the Box Score arrived at the conclusion that the three-hole hits with less men on base than the 4-5 spot. Taking this for true, I've always wondered about:

 

1. Polanco

2. Mauer

3. Buxton/Kepler/Someone hitting well

4. Sano

5. Dozier

 

--> Dozier protects Sano a bit, and Dozier sees more guys on base perhaps (I could also see their roles reversed depending on how the season goes). 

I'm iffy on Dozier third as well. I could easily be convinced to flip Dozier and Sano, as Sano should be much better at getting on base regularly.

 

My hope is that Kepler will take the third spot in the lineup very soon. He's the most capable all-around hitter on the team and has decent speed, which makes him the ideal third hitter... But he needs to be a .260-.270 guy to get there, not a .238 guy. If he somehow manages to become a .280/.360/.450 guy, he's a dream candidate for third.

 

I keep Buxton ninth simply out of caution. If he comes out of the gate and posts a .750 OPS the first three weeks of the season, I move him up the lineup in a big ass hurry. I'm wary of September-only performances and making decisions based on them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If everything unfolds how I hope it does, this is my lineup in June:

 

1. Buxton

2. Polanco

3. Kepler

4. Dozier/Sano

5. Dozier/Sano

6. Mauer (lefty bat, should be lower based on performance but I hate bunching lefties together)

7. Vargas

8. Rosario

9. Castro

[Willihammer]

There is no greater waste of calories than hashing out complicated lineups IMO.

Pick a stat that correlates with runs- OBP or Slg or OPS. Split by handedness of the SP. Sort in descending order. Boom, lineup.

[Vanimal46]

 

If everything unfolds how I hope it does, this is my lineup in June:

 

1. Buxton

2. Polanco

3. Kepler

4. Dozier/Sano

5. Dozier/Sano

6. Mauer (lefty bat, should be lower based on performance but I hate bunching lefties together)

7. Vargas

8. Rosario

9. Castro

Rotate Buxton + Polanco and Mauer + Vargas, and that's my ideal June lineup. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is no greater waste of calories than hashing out complicated lineups IMO.

Pick a stat that correlates with runs- OBP or Slg or OPS. Split by handedness of the SP. Sort in descending order. Boom, lineup.

 

In a vacuum, I agree. But, man, the players say over and over that where they bat somehow matters to their approach/ability to hit.

[nicksaviking]

 

--Of those 27 home runs Dozier hit while a leadoff hitter, 21 came with the bases empty.--

 

*winces*

 

Seriously, how are we even talking about these subjects? Does this team want to score runs or not?

 

Dozier should be third in this lineup, chased by Sano. If things change during the season and Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, etc. step forward, then you make the appropriate changes and shuffle guys around.

 

Yeah, which is kind of why I hope the following quote is only a half truth:

 

--Where he bats is up to the manager, Mauer repeated several times.--

 

I really hope the new guys "suggest" to Molitor what the lineup should look like. We've already seen what Molitor wanted to do last year with the exact same offensive crew, save a new catcher.

 

 

[bird]

 

In a vacuum, I agree. But, man, the players say over and over that where they bat somehow matters to their approach/ability to hit.

 

 

Yeah, but they also wear the same filthy shirt under their jersey, eat chickens on game day, and hop over chalk lines.

[youngtwinsfan]

 

*winces*

 

Seriously, how are we even talking about these subjects? Does this team want to score runs or not?

 

Dozier should be third in this lineup, chased by Sano. If things change during the season and Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, etc. step forward, then you make the appropriate changes and shuffle guys around.

I could be mistaken, but wasn't there some sort of article on TD last year comparing Dozier's production batting leadoff opposed to other places in the lineup? If I am right I believe I remember it talking about how his production is much better at leadoff. I agree he should be batting 3rd, but it is interesting to think about if his production really is better at leadoff.

[70charger]

 

I could be mistaken, but wasn't there some sort of article on TD last year comparing Dozier's production batting leadoff opposed to other places in the lineup? If I am right I believe I remember it talking about how his production is much better at leadoff. I agree he should be batting 3rd, but it is interesting to think about if his production really is better at leadoff.

 

I recall this too. I can't remember what the difference was. Psychological? maybe pure coincidence? 

[youngtwinsfan]

 

I recall this too. I can't remember what the difference was. Psychological? maybe pure coincidence? 

Yeah I'm not sure. He probably was seeing more fastballs batting leadoff which could be a reason. It could an interesting discussion though. If his production falls do they try to move him back to leadoff in hopes it increases? He also changed his approach last year midseason I believe, which could also have played a factor.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I could be mistaken, but wasn't there some sort of article on TD last year comparing Dozier's production batting leadoff opposed to other places in the lineup? If I am right I believe I remember it talking about how his production is much better at leadoff. I agree he should be batting 3rd, but it is interesting to think about if his production really is better at leadoff.

The sample sizes are small enough that they should be discarded. If a guy only gets 70 PAs while slotted into one part of the lineup, the number should be discarded because there's little to no way to tell if the hitter was just suffering through a slump during that 12-15 game stretch of play.

 

Technically speaking, Dozier had his best performance hitting cleanup last season in about 150 PAs.

 

His worst performance was hitting second in about 120 PAs.

 

None of that makes sense.

[youngtwinsfan]

 

The sample sizes are small enough that they should be discarded. If a guy only gets 70 PAs while slotted into one part of the lineup, the number should be discarded because there's little to no way to tell if the hitter was just suffering through a slump during that 12-15 game stretch of play.

 

Technically speaking, Dozier had his best performance hitting cleanup last season in about 150 PAs.

 

His worst performance was hitting second in about 120 PAs.

 

None of that makes sense.

Thanks for clearing that up! I just thought I remembered reading something about it, but couldn't find the article to back myself up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Thanks for clearing that up! I just thought I remembered reading something about it, but couldn't find the article to back myself up.

I'm sure there are players who try to change their approach and suffer when moving around the lineup.

 

But it's up to the coaching staff to tell them to not change their approach. They're slotted into the lineup because of the skillset they already have, not because the coach needs them to change to fit that part of the lineup.

 

At least that's the way it should work.

 

Dozier is naturally a 4/5 hitter based on his skillset. You don't try to get the guy to change, you put him in the 4/5 slots and tell him to keep on keepin' on.

[jctwins]

 

I would make the case that except for a year or two Mauer should ALWAYS have been in the #2 spot.   When you have guys like Tolbert, Casilla, Gomez and Punto (especially in those player's bad years) in the first two spots and you have guys like Thome, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer in the power spots it is kind of self evident that you want your on base machine to be in the #2 spot instead of so often batting with no one on and two out from the #3 spot.     If he should have been in the #2 spot back in the day when the team OBP was .345 he should definitely be there on a team with decent power but a .316 team OBP. 

 

This post managed to make me both happy and sad about the last ten years all at the same time.

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

Lead Mauer off against righties, Grossman against lefties.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Lead Mauer off against righties, Grossman against lefties.

I'd be very interested to see the projected OBP of a situation like that (whether that projection is even possible, I don't know).

[DocBauer]

Ideally, in the not too distant future, some combination of Buxton and Polanco hit 1-2 with Kepler 3rd. Follow that with Sano/Dozier.

 

In that scenario, Mauer is 6th or 7th depending on the Park/Vargas DH situation. Grossman for Mauer against lefties, Vargas/Park play 1B. Rosario bats 8th with the catcher 9th.

[TheLeviathan]

Mauer-Polanco-Sano-Dozier-Kepler-Vargas-Rosario-Castro-Buxton

 

And later, if Buxton is hitting well, slide him up to either the two or three spot and slide everyone else down.