Steven Gonsalves & Keith Law: Good but No Good

[Taildragger8791]

 

Wander Javier is the big one that comes to mind... Other than that, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I couldn't find squat for 2016, but it's harder to search for than I expected.

 

Javier at least seems to have power potential as a hitter but has questions on his future defensive position

 

The only notable 2014 signing was Huascar Ynoa. Has a live arm but is a total crapshoot due to control issues.

 

I guess if you go back to 2013 they signed Lewin Diaz for a good chunk of change, that dude looks like a potential monster hitter but apparently can't take a walk yet. Strikeout rate isn't bad yet though. Next year should be a big opportunity for him in Cedar Rapids.

 

Amaurys Minier was the big get in 2012, but has spent 4 years in rookie ball and already moved from 3B to OF to 1B to likely a DH, strikes out a ton, and has work ethic questions. Woof.

 

So yeah, it sounds like we haven't competed much for the top international talent in a while. That's disappointing and no doubt playing a factor in the system falling so far, along with our top draft picks mostly projecting to sub-superstar ceilings. Some of the above guys could put themselves on the map this season as they progress out of rookie ball, at least.

 

The new bonus pool rules next year don't give us an advantage for sucking anymore, so they'll have to learn to recruit internationally on a level playing field. Hopefully the new front office has a better strategy for that than TR did. That also means the pressure is on not to botch the #1 pick.

[Dantes929]

With Berrios, Kepler, Sano and Buxton and Polanco out of prospect status, having 4 or 5 in the top 100 with 3 more high draft choices coming doesn't seem so bad to me.  BTW, what took Berrios out of prospect status.  What is the criteria?

[Twins33]

With Berrios, Kepler, Sano and Buxton and Polanco out of prospect status, having 4 or 5 in the top 100 with 3 more high draft choices coming doesn't seem so bad to me.  BTW, what took Berrios out of prospect status.  What is the criteria?

im not sure if every list follows the same rule, but I know MLB dot com has pitchers losing eligibility at 45 days or 50 IP in the majors. Berrios is at 58.1 IP.

[mlhouse]

 

I'm confused. Wasn't his slider scouted as "plus" (60/70) coming out of high school? The Twins even had him shelve it for the first couple years since he didn't need to work on it and so he wouldn't rely on it. How could it be so hittable then?

 

Against HS hitters?  

 

The guy has a very good fastball, 92/94 with very good placement.  He has a very good changeup that keeps hitters off balance.  He induces a lot of ground balls.  His minor league career ERA demonstrates that he has some solid positives. 

 

So, why doesn't he miss bats and have a higher strikeout level in his movement through the lower minor leagues?

 

I gave you the answer from personal observation.  His slider.  From a velocity standpoint his slider is good, sitting in a midrange between his fastball and offspeed pitches.  It has some movement on it too but that movement stays in the same vertical plane.  He just doesnt get any downward movement.  

 

So, even at the less advanced levels the hitters can make contact with it and rarely miss.  If you guess fastball or guess slider, and swing, your bat is going to be in the correct vertical plane to make contact.  At the lower levels the hitters often do not make solid contact with these pitches, but advanced hitters will probably be able to adjust and increase the contact level.  

 

To get more strikeouts he needs to miss more bats and he needs more vertical movement on his slider or potentially to use his curveball more.  His curve isn't a bad pitch but it lacks consistency in placement and movement.  Like a lot of young guys he can miss badly with it but when he throws it well it has good movement and lots of deception.

 

 

 

[Taildragger8791]

Against HS hitters?  

 

The guy has a very good fastball, 92/94 with very good placement.  He has a very good changeup that keeps hitters off balance.  He induces a lot of ground balls.  His minor league career ERA demonstrates that he has some solid positives. 

 

So, why doesn't he miss bats and have a higher strikeout level in his movement through the lower minor leagues?

 

I gave you the answer from personal observation.  His slider.  From a velocity standpoint his slider is good, sitting in a midrange between his fastball and offspeed pitches.  It has some movement on it too but that movement stays in the same vertical plane.  He just doesnt get any downward movement.  

 

So, even at the less advanced levels the hitters can make contact with it and rarely miss.  If you guess fastball or guess slider, and swing, your bat is going to be in the correct vertical plane to make contact.  At the lower levels the hitters often do not make solid contact with these pitches, but advanced hitters will probably be able to adjust and increase the contact level.  

 

To get more strikeouts he needs to miss more bats and he needs more vertical movement on his slider or potentially to use his curveball more.  His curve isn't a bad pitch but it lacks consistency in placement and movement.  Like a lot of young guys he can miss badly with it but when he throws it well it has good movement and lots of deception.

Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear. I realize good breaking pitches need vertical movement. What I meant was why did it grade so well and why did the Twins not develop the pitch earlier if it was so flat? That seems like a big oversight. I assume they don't grade pitches based on results against HS hitters, but instead on rely on visual scouting. Otherwise every good draft prospect would be sitting on 60+ grades across the board and the reports would be meaningless.

[dcbona]

 

 

 

• that our best (pure?) bat is ranked is good.  That its ranked so low is bad.  But then again, generating runs isn't the Twins' top priority.

Rankings are often based on production. For a HS position player, with only 55 games at Rookie ball, to get ranked in the Top 100 on many lists is very encouraging, even if it's in the 90-100 range. There's no shade being thrown at his ranking, nor is it an indicator of the organizations lack of minor league hitting talent. It basically says there isn't any ML-ready hitters at the moment, which is fine.

 

[DocBauer]

I think it's a safe bet, at the moment, to not bet on Stewart as a top end starter. And it seems to stem from his breaking ball. But prospects develop differently on different time tables...Stewart not skyrocketing to the ML as many hoped when drafted...and I'm actually higher on Stewart coming in to 2017 than I was on him going in to last season.

 

First, he concentrated more on football, despite scouts opinions and projections for him pre-draft, until he joined the Twins. Second, there were a few minor injuries early on that slowed him a bit. Third, he's still quite young. Forgive me for not having stats in front of me, but wasn't he one of the youngest players in AA last season? Fourth, his SO numbers improved in 2017 at Ft Myers and he definately earned his promotion to AA. (As opposed to the theory the Twins are never aggressive with young pitches). Lastly, his overall numbers and weak contact for roughly half a season at AA remain encouraging to me.

 

A good FB and change is a great place to start. From everything I've ever come across regarding him, including posts here, the question remains his breaking ball. In addition to just gaining experience and learning to pitch, it would seem he may be positioned for a real breakout one of these days with that better breaking ball. I know that sounds simplistic, and is much easier said than done, but I have this gut feeling in a year or two we are going to be nicely surprised by Stewart.

[Mike Sixel]

Nick Gordon is number 53 on KLAW's list:

 

"can really, really hit"

 

"tools allow him to be an average big leaguer, but....will allow him to be more"

[Steve Lein]

 

I live in Ft Myers so watching Kohl Stewart in person is something I have done.  One of the main criticisms of Stewart is that he does not miss bats.  The reason for this is the movement plane of his slider.  It stays too much in the same plane.  Because of this, even if non-advanced hitters guess wrong between fastball and slider, they are not going to miss. They might not make solid contact all the time, but more advanced hitters will be able to adjust on the pitch.

 

Right now, Stewart is a fastball-changeup pitcher that can spot the ball well with nice change of speeds. His curveball can be an effective pitch but he is very inconsistent with it now.  To be a top half of the rotation starter in the big leagues Stewart needs to develop some bite to his slider so that it drops plane and makes hitters miss it.

 

So really, his best pitch coming out of the draft is now a cutter. I find this to be yet another fault on the development staff and methods the Twins have employed.

 

I've seen Kohl throw as well, but that was when he literally was not throwing any breaking balls or on the back fields at Spring Training. How may games to you go to in a season?

[dcbona]

I'm shocked Kohl Stewart would make it onto anyone's top 100 list for 2017.

 

The 3.03 ERA in 91 IP at AA is fools gold when it's accompanied by a 4.49 FIP and an above-league average and career high 74.6 LOB%.

 

4.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 are beyond awful. If he lowers his BB-rate, he might become Nick Blackburn.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm shocked Kohl Stewart would make it onto anyone's top 100 list for 2017.

 

The 3.03 ERA in 91 IP at AA is fools gold when it's accompanied by a 4.49 FIP and an above-league average and career high 74.6 LOB%.

 

4.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 are beyond awful. If he lowers his BB-rate, he might become Nick Blackburn.

Well, I suspect that Klaw isn't scouting the stat lines and sees something - either directly or from scouts he trusts - that suggests a possible positive outcome.

[gunnarthor]

 

Nick Gordon is number 53 on KLAW's list:

 

"can really, really hit"

 

"tools allow him to be an average big leaguer, but....will allow him to be more"

Well, if Gordon's the only Twins in the 41-60 range I would imagine that Klaw doesn't have Jay in his top 100. So that's five Twins, if I counted right (Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Stewart, Gordon and Romero). Aside from Jay, is there someone else that could sneak into a top 40 in the low minors?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, if Gordon's the only Twins in the 41-60 range I would imagine that Klaw doesn't have Jay in his top 100. So that's five Twins, if I counted right (Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Stewart, Gordon and Romero). Aside from Jay, is there someone else that could sneak into a top 40 in the low minors?

 

I doubt it. He was very high on Jay, but it's hard to see how he is in the top 40. We'll have some idea tomorrow....

[Taildragger8791]

 

I think it's a safe bet, at the moment, to not bet on Stewart as a top end starter. And it seems to stem from his breaking ball. But prospects develop differently on different time tables...Stewart not skyrocketing to the ML as many hoped when drafted...and I'm actually higher on Stewart coming in to 2017 than I was on him going in to last season.

First, he concentrated more on football, despite scouts opinions and projections for him pre-draft, until he joined the Twins. Second, there were a few minor injuries early on that slowed him a bit. Third, he's still quite young. Forgive me for not having stats in front of me, but wasn't he one of the youngest players in AA last season? Fourth, his SO numbers improved in 2017 at Ft Myers and he definately earned his promotion to AA. (As opposed to the theory the Twins are never aggressive with young pitches). Lastly, his overall numbers and weak contact for roughly half a season at AA remain encouraging to me.

A good FB and change is a great place to start. From everything I've ever come across regarding him, including posts here, the question remains his breaking ball. In addition to just gaining experience and learning to pitch, it would seem he may be positioned for a real breakout one of these days with that better breaking ball. I know that sounds simplistic, and is much easier said than done, but I have this gut feeling in a year or two we are going to be nicely surprised by Stewart.

 

How often do pitchers find a strikeout-quality primary breaking ball in or after their 5th season in the minors as a high school draftee (or whatever the comparable experience would be for a college draftee)? I honestly don't know, maybe it happens more than I think, but it seems extremely unusual. My understanding is that a pitcher's repertoire is basically established by this point, with maybe some of the fringy pitches being swapped out over time.

 

I also think going into his age 22 season, after 3.5 years of full-time minor league development, we can drop the excuse that he played football in high school. Hell, Mauer was committed to Florida State as a QB and didn't need 3+ years to get caught up.

[DocBauer]

Not that unusual for a young pitcher to find a different grip on his ball, for example, to create better control or movement on a pitch.

 

I couldn't give you an exact percentage or names at the moment...someone else probably could...but I have seen/read instances where a cutter or split finger was developed even at the ML level. If I recall correctly, didn't Joe Nathan develop his splutter after already becoming the Twins closer?

[Taildragger8791]

 

Not that unusual for a young pitcher to find a different grip on his ball, for example, to create better control or movement on a pitch.

I couldn't give you an exact percentage or names at the moment...someone else probably could...but I have seen/read instances where a cutter or split finger was developed even at the ML level. If I recall correctly, didn't Joe Nathan develop his splutter after already becoming the Twins closer?

 

I've heard of guys developing variations on fastballs or changeups like that. I'm struggling to think of a time that a guy successfully overhauled a slider, curve, or some other significant breaking ball though. Improving feel or command is one thing, but changing the action of the pitch and learning to command it seems like a major development.

[drivlikejehu]

It's very rare for a low-strikeout minor league pitcher to pan out at all. I did some looking at one point and wasn't able to come up with a SP comp that would show a path for Stewart. Maybe as a reliever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Where's Buxton on his list? He's always on these things. 

Buxton is ranked #1 as "Prospect Emeritus"

[mlhouse]

 

Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear. I realize good breaking pitches need vertical movement. What I meant was why did it grade so well and why did the Twins not develop the pitch earlier if it was so flat? That seems like a big oversight. I assume they don't grade pitches based on results against HS hitters, but instead on rely on visual scouting. Otherwise every good draft prospect would be sitting on 60+ grades across the board and the reports would be meaningless.

 

I'm not sure.  I think it is very difficult to scout baseball draft prospects because the competition is so varied.  I dont know if you are old enough to remember B.J. Garbe, the Twins 5th pick in the 1999 draft. Right after he signed, I went to a Elizabethton game to watch him play.  Garbe was touted as this great athlete and won the 1999 national HS player of the year award.  But looking at him in person he didnt look overly athletic.  And, watching him have 4 at bats in Rookie league was enough to convince me he did not have the bat speed to make it to the major leagues.  I called my friend whose father in law ran the Twins Minor league system and stated that.

 

While maybe I was lucky with such a small sample size to make that correct determination, it made me think that baseball needs to change how it drafts prospects.  

 

My idea is this.  Instead of holding the MLB draft in June, wait until October/November and invite eligible players for the draft to play in Rookie leagues.  You could create double roster sizes and play double header games until the draft.  THen, instead of evaluating B.J. Garbe agaisnt fellow Washington state high school players, you can evaluate him against top level high school and college players.  He is going to see 90 mph fastballs and pitchers who can actually throw off speed (Tim Spooneyburger pitched for Danville in that game and fluxomed the Elizabethton hittes with his offspeed pitches).  IN those months of double headers you will get nice sample sizes to evaluate.

 

Then, instead of making B.J. Garbe the 5th pick overall and giving him the huge signing bonus, you take Justin Mourneau with that selection instead and give a more deserving player the money, making your investment have a higher ROI.

 

My friend's father in law hated my idea!  The reason is each of these teams think they have scouting secrets but MLB draft results indicates otherwise.

[mlhouse]

 

So really, his best pitch coming out of the draft is now a cutter. I find this to be yet another fault on the development staff and methods the Twins have employed.

 

I've seen Kohl throw as well, but that was when he literally was not throwing any breaking balls or on the back fields at Spring Training. How may games to you go to in a season?

 

 

I only go to a couple.  Part of the problem in SW Florida is that it rains every late afternoon/early evening during the season.  So, about half of the time I think about going the storm moves in and I change my mind (often it is gorgeous at game time though!).

 

I think that the Twins could work on Kohl's slider though.  I am not certain but it could be a small change in his angle of attack that could change its movement significantly.  I could be wrong on that but one reason the Twins might not want to change his arm motion is the fear of injury.

 

THe other point I made was that I thought Stewarts curve has some chance of being a plus pitch if he can gain consistency, and I think that would help him strike more hitters out and move him up a notch in upside.  

 

While I am a big advocate of rushing players through the minors on a rebuilding team like the Twins (understanding that you need coaches at the MLB level patient enough to work with the young players), Stewart is one that I think a more conservative approach is warranted while he develops these secondary pitches. The patience could be enough to make him a #2-3 starter instead of a #5.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm not sure.  I think it is very difficult to scout baseball draft prospects because the competition is so varied.  I dont know if you are old enough to remember B.J. Garbe, the Twins 5th pick in the 1999 draft. Right after he signed, I went to a Elizabethton game to watch him play.  Garbe was touted as this great athlete and won the 1999 national HS player of the year award.  But looking at him in person he didnt look overly athletic.  And, watching him have 4 at bats in Rookie league was enough to convince me he did not have the bat speed to make it to the major leagues.  I called my friend whose father in law ran the Twins Minor league system and stated that.

 

While maybe I was lucky with such a small sample size to make that correct determination, it made me think that baseball needs to change how it drafts prospects.  

 

My idea is this.  Instead of holding the MLB draft in June, wait until October/November and invite eligible players for the draft to play in Rookie leagues.  You could create double roster sizes and play double header games until the draft.  THen, instead of evaluating B.J. Garbe agaisnt fellow Washington state high school players, you can evaluate him against top level high school and college players.  He is going to see 90 mph fastballs and pitchers who can actually throw off speed (Tim Spooneyburger pitched for Danville in that game and fluxomed the Elizabethton hittes with his offspeed pitches).  IN those months of double headers you will get nice sample sizes to evaluate.

 

Then, instead of making B.J. Garbe the 5th pick overall and giving him the huge signing bonus, you take Justin Mourneau with that selection instead and give a more deserving player the money, making your investment have a higher ROI.

 

My friend's father in law hated my idea!  The reason is each of these teams think they have scouting secrets but MLB draft results indicates otherwise.

I hate this idea for a few reasons - HS kids can't compete with college players, HS kids shouldn't have to be trying out for a draft spot in oct/nov when they might have to start college if they don't get drafted, these kids should get paid to it and MLB shouldn't get this added benefit for free where all these kids lives are put on hold for MLB's benefit.

 

That said, isn't that somewhat close to what we're doing now with all these special leagues in the summer and the perfect game traveling events?

[Seth Stohs]

 

"What they don’t have, at least anywhere at a full-season level, is a future star -- a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, a middle of the order bat, a potential MVP candidate, nothing quite like that." Keith Law
 

 

Nope, that's what Berrios, Buxton, Sano and Kepler were as prospects. Having four guys like that graduate (in addition to Polanco) is a lot. 

 

I'm not worried about it. I think Romero could be top of rotation type. I think Gordon can be a starting MLB SS for a dozen or more years. I think Gonsalves can be a solid, long-term LH SP guy. Kirilloff has a chance to be a really good hitter, and he'll go to Cedar Rapids and hopefully start showing that this year. Jay could be an OK mid-rotation starter or a lights-out late-inning lefty. The cupboard is far from bare. Javier is a long way a way, but very talented. Lewin Diaz. Mitch Garver could have a lengthy career behind the plate, even if he's maybe not an All Star.

 

Rankings are fun. We all do them, but they're just a talking point... I like to look at the bigger picture, and I think the Twins have a lot of intriguing guys in the system. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Nope, that's what Berrios, Buxton, Sano and Kepler were as prospects. Having four guys like that graduate (in addition to Polanco) is a lot. 

 

I'm not worried about it. I think Romero could be top of rotation type. I think Gordon can be a starting MLB SS for a dozen or more years. I think Gonsalves can be a solid, long-term LH SP guy. Kirilloff has a chance to be a really good hitter, and he'll go to Cedar Rapids and hopefully start showing that this year. Jay could be an OK mid-rotation starter or a lights-out late-inning lefty. The cupboard is far from bare. Javier is a long way a way, but very talented. Lewin Diaz. Mitch Garver could have a lengthy career behind the plate, even if he's maybe not an All Star.

 

Rankings are fun. We all do them, but they're just a talking point... I like to look at the bigger picture, and I think the Twins have a lot of intriguing guys in the system. 

 

 

 

KLAW loves Kiriloff, in his writeup he said he could move way up if he hits this year.

 

"intriguing" is that the same as likely future all star? because that's what you are trying to argue against....a starting SS is not an MVP candidate, is he? 

 

I don't get how what he said is so wrong, what players do you see as an ACE or MVP, currently in the system in full season ball?

[Seth Stohs]

 

KLAW loves Kiriloff, in his writeup he said he could move way up if he hits this year.

 

"intriguing" is that the same as likely future all star? because that's what you are trying to argue against....a starting SS is not an MVP candidate, is he? 

 

I don't get how what he said is so wrong, what players do you see as an ACE or MVP, currently in the system in full season ball?

 

I didn't disagree with him at all... I just pointed out that the guys they have developed who could be ACE or MVP are the guys who have come up the last two years.

 

That said, I think Kirilloff could be an All Star down the road. Way too early to know. 

 

Gordon could be an All Star caliber player, though there are obviously a lot of quality young SS. 

 

Romero could be an Ace.

 

Jay could be an All Star reliever.

 

Other than that, they've got a bunch of guys who can be good players on a winning-caliber team. 

 

I certainly don't expect a team full of All Stars. The core is up (Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Kepler)... now the rest need to fit around that and then see what happens. 

[nicksaviking]

 

It's very rare for a low-strikeout minor league pitcher to pan out at all. I did some looking at one point and wasn't able to come up with a SP comp that would show a path for Stewart. Maybe as a reliever.

 

I remember looking for comps too and coming up empty, which to be fair was probably what I was hoping to find since I was actively looking for validation in my opinion of Stewart.

 

I think at this point the only hope is that he is an outlier, I'm skeptical but I do have some hope that he is just that. After all Klaw even implied that Stewart has to start using his other pitches to put guys away instead of his sinker. The Twins already have Kyle Gibson who has self professed to doing the exact same thing, perhaps the outlier is actually the old Twins regime's pitching philosophy. Anyway, that's the only real hope that I'm clinging to with Stewart.

[mlhouse]

 

I hate this idea for a few reasons - HS kids can't compete with college players, HS kids shouldn't have to be trying out for a draft spot in oct/nov when they might have to start college if they don't get drafted, these kids should get paid to it and MLB shouldn't get this added benefit for free where all these kids lives are put on hold for MLB's benefit.

 

That said, isn't that somewhat close to what we're doing now with all these special leagues in the summer and the perfect game traveling events?

 

1.  Yeah, the kids would get paid to participate, playing in existing minor league teams.  You could end the season in September to let HS players elect to go to college.

2.  Just like the current rookie league design, you could have +/- levels.

3.  There is mutual benefit for both teams and draftees.  My guess is that the highest echelon players expecting to go high in the draft might skip, although that could work to their disadvantage too.

4.  The advantage of this league is that the sample size is over many more games against a higher level of competition.

[DocBauer]

I remember looking for comps too and coming up empty, which to be fair was probably what I was hoping to find since I was actively looking for validation in my opinion of Stewart.

 

I think at this point the only hope is that he is an outlier, I'm skeptical but I do have some hope that he is just that. After all Klaw even implied that Stewart has to start using his other pitches to put guys away instead of his sinker. The Twins already have Kyle Gibson who has self professed to doing the exact same thing, perhaps the outlier is actually the old Twins regime's pitching philosophy. Anyway, that's the only real hope that I'm clinging to with Stewart.

But given his youth, as well as the positive traits he has shown...and you mentioned a possible change in organizational philosophy possibly offering hope in change as well...I don't think it's really all that far fetched to find a change in his slider, or curve, or a change to a slurve or cutter...(listen to me, I sound like I know what I'm talking about)...to go along with his FB and change to allow him to turn a corner.

[drivlikejehu]

 

But given his youth, as well as the positive traits he has shown...and you mentioned a possible change in organizational philosophy possibly offering hope in change as well...I don't think it's really all that far fetched to find a change in his slider, or curve, or a change to a slurve or cutter...(listen to me, I sound like I know what I'm talking about)...to go along with his FB and change to allow him to turn a corner.

 

Yeah, but over the years the same was true for literally thousands of other minor league pitchers . . . guys that can't strike out minor leaguers are basically never good enough to be an MLB pitcher. Granted, Stewart theoretically has more going for him than most low-strikeout 'prospects,' but still the history is daunting.

 

He needs a lot more than one significant change, that's for sure. Better off-speed, better command, better delivery/release . . . he's too far off the pace for a little tweak to do the job.

[jimmer]

 

But given his youth, as well as the positive traits he has shown...and you mentioned a possible change in organizational philosophy possibly offering hope in change as well...I don't think it's really all that far fetched to find a change in his slider, or curve, or a change to a slurve or cutter...(listen to me, I sound like I know what I'm talking about)...to go along with his FB and change to allow him to turn a corner.

If only Stewart had, say, never posted a K% lower than 30% at any level while also only having a 6% BB%, culminating in a 33% K% in triple a last year.  THEN we could say he'd have a good chance to be a really good starting pitcher in the majors, cause that's some quality work striking people out.

 

Well, maybe we could say he had a good chance to be a really good starting pitcher in the majors.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm confused. Wasn't his slider scouted as "plus" (60/70) coming out of high school? The Twins even had him shelve it for the first couple years since he didn't need to work on it and so he wouldn't rely on it. How could it be so hittable then?

 

Potential plus or flashes plush.  No one debated that Stewart needed to develop.