Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[AZTwin]

Not really, if by All-Star break he's made every start, and he's on around 100 innings pitched, and on pace to hit like 150, has shown improvement on his breaking pitches, and is still striking out a ton of batters and not walking anyone, and still has 6+ years of team control, no one is going to care if he's 24. 3/4 of a year old vs 24.5 years old vs 24.7/12 of a year old.

If at the all star break, hes still in minors with obvious flaws. Still struggling to pitch innings, being 24 and 11 months vs just turned 24 definitely matters. You seriously question if he's going to put it together. Personally I think he's good prospect but no where near worth giving up dozier for

[CiabanItReal]

 

I would not be concerned about Newcombe's walk rate as long as the strike out rate is high. It is not unusual for very good pitchers to have high walk rates (even in AAA). I think it can be a mistake for teams to try to fix it. In fact, you can learn from looking at k+bb rate. It shows a pitcher's dominance and a hitter's inability to make contact.

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8507-searching-for-radke/

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/

Just like Kyle Crick, top prospect with a ton of K's and BB's until his K's disappeared and all his success went with it.

[laloesch]

This is good news

Yep. The Dozier potential deal is pretty much dead. Doders are already looking elsewhere for options. That's okay they tried to low ball the Twins the whole time with JDL and junk. I don't blame Twins management one bit for walking away. Even if Dozier regresses a bit he's still worth more than an oft injured JDL who has only pitched more than 100 innings once in the minors.

[CiabanItReal]

 

If at the all star break, hes still in minors with obvious flaws. Still struggling to pitch innings, being 24 and 11 months vs just turned 24 definitely matters. You seriously question if he's going to put it together. Personally I think he's good prospect but no where near worth giving up dozier for

The biggest "serious flaw" is his durability right? If he's been healthy the whole year, and racking up high quality innings, well there goes that flaw, and it's not unusual for players specifically college players to break into the majors at 25 anyway.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

Yep. The Dozier potential deal is pretty much dead. Doders are already looking elsewhere for options. That's okay they tried to low ball the Twins the whole time with JDL and junk. I don't blame Twins management one bit for walking away. Even if Dozier regresses a bit he's still worth more than an oft injured JDL who has never pitched more than 100 innings in any given season.

We don't know that, all we know for sure is that JDL was the agreed center piece to a deal for Dozier, everything else is speculation.

 

And He's thrown more than 100 innings last year, 103 the year before 114, and his collegiate year 110 i think.

[jimmer]

So, if we don't trade Dozier, how are we improving our rotation?  Just keep drafting and hoping for the best?

 

Some believe Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco are our core.  We don't think getting quality pitching that will help now and in the near future is a good idea while these guys go into their 2nd and 3rd seasons?

 

Risk aversion is one of the reasons we are where we are now as is holding on to veterans and getting nothing when they leave.  Holding onto Dozier, who will be gone after two seasons, is certainly the safe thing for us to do while we continue to rack up 90+ loss seasons, but I'd rather the FO take some chances.  

 

Trading Dozier for players who might bust sure is a taking a chance.  For me, a necessary chance.

 

Keeping Dozier, for fear of the prospects busting, and then seeing him go in two years, is a lot less risky...and IMO, is bad management.  Keeping Dozier does nothing for our future.

[laloesch]

We don't know that, all we know for sure is that JDL was the agreed center piece to a deal for Dozier, everything else is speculation.

 

And He's thrown more than 100 innings last year, 103 the year before 114, and his collegiate year 110 i think.

He's only broken 100 innings in a season once (2015).

[AZTwin]

We don't know that, all we know for sure is that JDL was the agreed center piece to a deal for Dozier, everything else is speculation.

 

And He's thrown more than 100 innings last year, 103 the year before 114, and his collegiate year 110 i think.

Not exactly making his case. Usually a first full year might be around those innings pitch but once you are that close to the majors you should be able to log serious innings. Don't think he can and his pitch selection is not the best. There's a reason why he's 7 on depth chart and more prospects are thought of more highly than him despite his ranking. Friedman trying to cash in on perception vs reality. Did the same thing with Delmon Young. Dozier is opposite. Much better player than perception

[AZTwin]

So, if we don't trade Dozier, how are we improving our rotation? Just keep drafting and hoping for the best?

 

Some believe Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco are our core. We don't think getting quality pitching that will help now and in the near future is a good idea while these guys go into their 2nd and 3rd seasons?

 

Risk aversion is one of the reasons we are where we are now as is holding on to veterans and getting nothing when they leave. Holding onto Dozier, who will be gone after two seasons, is certainly the safe thing for us to do while we continue to rack up 90+ loss seasons, but I'd rather the FO take some chances.

 

Trading Dozier for players who might bust sure is a taking a chance. For me, a necessary chance.

 

Keeping Dozier, for fear of the prospects busting, and then seeing him go in two years, is a lot less risky...and IMO, is bad management. Keeping Dozier does nothing for our future.

I'd like to trade him but if the deal isn't right you got to walk. Risk aversion isn't good, but not all risk is the same. I'd like falvey to do risk like play the stock market based on known market conditions. Not go into a casino with a hope and a prayer.

[gunnarthor]

Exactly. There's a difference between not trading Dozier because you don't like the return and not trading Dozier at all. It seems that the FO wants to move him but they don't want to take a bad deal. None of us know the offers or how the teams value the various pieces, so it's a bit tough to talk about it but Lavine certainly knows how trades work so we'll see how he does.

[jimmer]

Are we just going to assume that if a deal doesn't happen there were no good offers?

[gunnarthor]

I think we should probably base it on what has been reported by trusted sources - which right now means a Dozier for De Leon swap with either nothing else (LEN and Nightengale) or insignificant second pieces involved.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Are we just going to assume that if a deal doesn't happen there were no good offers?

In a word, yes.

[CiabanItReal]

 

He's only broken 100 innings in a season once (2015).

He threw 53 minor league innings in 2013  another 50 or so innings in college that year.

114.1 innings in 2015.

And 103 total innings last year 86 in AAA, and 17 in the majors that makes 103 innings.

[jimmer]

 

In a word, yes.

Hmmmmm.  

 

P.S.  Nightengale is a trustworthy a source as the National Inquirer (if even that)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hmmmmm.  

 

P.S.  Nightengale is a trustworthy a source as the National Inquirer (if even that)

That and a dollar will get you a cup of coffee

[AZTwin]

He threw 53 minor league innings in 2013 another 50 or so innings in college that year.

114.1 innings in 2015.

And 103 total innings last year 86 in AAA, and 17 in the majors that makes 103 innings.

Sounds like he is a good long relief option

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

Not exactly making his case. Usually a first full year might be around those innings pitch but once you are that close to the majors you should be able to log serious innings. Don't think he can and his pitch selection is not the best. There's a reason why he's 7 on depth chart and more prospects are thought of more highly than him despite his ranking. Friedman trying to cash in on perception vs reality. Did the same thing with Delmon Young. Dozier is opposite. Much better player than perception

Except the dodgers don't push their guys innings wise. That's not their organizational philosophy, and it seems to work for them considering how well they develop pitchers.

His first year after being drafted he put up 53 innings.

In 2014 he had 77

In 2015 he had 114

he was on a clear trajectory to continue to add innings, but then his season got stalled due to an ankle problem followed by shoulder fatigue, and he still wound up throwing over 100 innings. It would have been nice if he could have got a full year in. But it's not really that big of a deal.

[drjim]

Are we just going to assume that if a deal doesn't happen there were no good offers?

That would be my assumption. Dodgers never offered much beyond De Leon.

[Squirrel]

Are we just going to assume that if a deal doesn't happen there were no good offers?

As opposed to what? That they got good offers and turned them down?

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

Sounds like he is a good long relief option

So he's gone from a #3/4 based on fangraphs projection only, to a back end starter, to a reliever, to a just a long man, I think your running out of ways to demote him? How much longer until he reaches "just a AA long man"

 

But hell, considering the state of the twins bullpen, him being a long man would be a pretty decent upgrade.

[jimmer]

 

As opposed to what? That they got good offers and turned them down?

As opposed to perhaps over-estimating Dozier's value trying to hit a grand slam and not settling for less on their first big move in charge.

 

So yes.

 

But we'll never know what the offers were if he doesn't get traded.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Again... 28

 

minor league contract

 

That should tell you a lot. This guy is plan B or C.  Not plan A.

 

Reading MLBTR, he hasn't played since 2014 too and will need time...  This is a smart move on LA's part, but this is just as much taking a flier on a minor league contract and adding depth to the system as anything. 

[Squirrel]

 

As opposed to perhaps over-estimating Dozier's value trying to hit a grand slam and not settling for less on their first big move in charge?

 

So yes.

Well, we will never know. Unless you are a fly on that wall, you will never know. And I honestly don't think we can make that assumption. Seriously. I think that's a pretty serious accusation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

As opposed to perhaps over-estimating Dozier's value trying to hit a grand slam and not settling for less on their first big move in charge?

 

So yes.

 

But we'll never know what the offers were if he doesn't get traded.

 

So let's all do everyone a favor if he doesn't get traded and not make assumptions on whether or not the FO walked away from perfectly good offers or bad ones...

[jimmer]

 

Well, we will never know. Unless you are a fly on that wall, you will never know. And I honestly don't think we can make that assumption. Seriously. I think that's a pretty serious accusation.

It's the same assumption as thinking they didn't trade him cause the offer wasn't good enough.  Same thing, exactly.  Is that assumption okay?

[Squirrel]

 

It's the same assumption as thinking they didn't trade him cause the offer wasn't good enough.  Same thing, exactly.  

No, it's not, not at all. You are choosing to say that two people who know baseball better than both of us combined, chose an incredibly irresponsible choice to serve their egos, over doing their jobs and walking away. And my point is ... you don't know and neither do I and I won't judge someone for something that I don't know.

[jimmer]

It is the same EXACT thing. It's two different assumptions based on the SAME AMOUNT of information. One just gives a brand new FO the benefit of the doubt, which apparently is just fine (for whatever reason) while the other doesn't and is, therefore, a 'serious accusation'.  

 

So we are fine with assuming that FOs are doing the right thing when nothing gets done.  I guess that's one way to go.

 

IMO, if Dozier doesn't get traded and walks in two years then it's a failure cause we got nothing at all for the future.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It's the same assumption as thinking they didn't trade him cause the offer wasn't good enough.  Same thing, exactly.  Is that assumption okay?

 

No, not really.  Saying we don't know what was on the table acknowledges ignorance that we all share.  Out of ignorance, simply giving them the benefit of the doubt is hardly unreasonable. 

 

On the other hand, assuming they had a good offer is essentially an assumption of incompetence... Now if reports come out that say that the front office turned down De Leon, Alvarez, and Bellinger, you'd have a point.... but since you don't know.. and we don't know... let's just lay off the accusations and accept the fact that we dont' know.

[CiabanItReal]

 

No, it's not, not at all. You are choosing to say that two people who know baseball better than both of us combined, chose an incredibly irresponsible choice to serve their egos, over doing their jobs and walking away. And my point is ... you don't know and neither do I and I won't judge someone for something that I don't know.

Or they just got gun shy and didn't pull the trigger because they wanted an over pay to feel safe and the dodgers weren't willing to go that far. Or they got a perfectly good deal but chose to take the calculated risk of holding on to him in hopes that they can get a bidding war going in July.