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Why no chatter on Ervin Santana?

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Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

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Imagine if the Twins were in the market for a starter, not to put us over the top but just to round out a staff.  How many posters here would be willing to give up decent prospects in trade for Ervin Santana?  Or would more people advocate buying low on a couple of options like Nolasco and Milone first? 

Oxtung First Round Pick

Oxtung

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Imagine if the Twins were in the market for a starter, not to put us over the top but just to round out a staff.  How many posters here would be willing to give up decent prospects in trade for Ervin Santana?  Or would more people advocate buying low on a couple of options like Nolasco and Milone first? 

 

The Twins aren't in "win now" mode; other teams are.

Eris First Round Pick

Eris

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In 2009, Santana hurt his UCL.  Depending on the source, this was describe as a sprain or a partial tear.  Not sure if this has any bearing on his current trade value.  

 

Here is an article from 2012.  

 

http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/11/4/3594438/ervin-santana-damaged-goods

 

An excerpt from the article in 2014 referenced at the the end of this post indicates there is no UCL damage

 

"Surgery isn't a foregone conclusion. Adam Wainwright lasted half a decade with a torn UCL before it blew. Ervin Santana's right elbow shows no sign of a UCL defect these days after he rehabbed a partial tear five years ago, according to a source familiar with his medicals. PRP treatment worked for Takashi Saito's partial tear, and a study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine last year called it "an effective option to treat partial UCL tears of the elbow."  

 

source:  http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-mlb-s-elbow-problem--which-now-includes-yankees--masahiro-tanaka--is-worse-than-people-imagine-055237854.html

Vanimal46 Cooperstown

Vanimal46

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Imagine if the Twins were in the market for a starter, not to put us over the top but just to round out a staff.  How many posters here would be willing to give up decent prospects in trade for Ervin Santana?  Or would more people advocate buying low on a couple of options like Nolasco and Milone first? 

If the rotation looked like it is right now without Ervin, and the Twins are somehow competitive? Yes, I'd be willing to give up decent prospects for him. 

More realistically, think about the Rangers. Top heavy rotation with very little upside to fill out the rest of the rotation. It's generally easier for them to buy international talent and refill the farm system compared to the Twins. Would you care if they gave up a couple of decent prospects for a better chance at the playoffs?

Doomtints FCL Twins

Doomtints

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Imagine if the Twins were in the market for a starter, not to put us over the top but just to round out a staff.  How many posters here would be willing to give up decent prospects in trade for Ervin Santana?  Or would more people advocate buying low on a couple of options like Nolasco and Milone first? 

 

Looking at the past, I have always considered Santana to be underrated.  He is underpaid based on his recent and career production.

 

Nevertheless, he's not the type of guy you trade prospects for at his age and at this stage of his contract.  

 

For the Twins, he's a bargain.  For a trade partner, he's a risk.  If he were younger or he had just 1 year left on his contract, trading could make sense for a contender.  

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

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If the rotation looked like it is right now without Ervin, and the Twins are somehow competitive? Yes, I'd be willing to give up decent prospects for him. 

Teams with a rotation like the Twins current have generally aren't looking at competitiveness. :)

 

That's the thing -- who have we talked about trading Ervin to?  The Rangers?  Darvish and Hamels.  Orioles?  Tillman, Gausman, and they hope for Bundy.

 

These clubs don't need a guy at the top of the staff, like the Twins have recently; they need a solid arm to round out their top 4-5.  They might be willing to devote some resources to it, but dollars AND prospects might be too much. They can afford some time to see if such an arm emerges from internal options or scrap heap pickups before they commit prospects as well as dollars for a guy like Ervin.

 

His market might heat up in July, but it's hard to say if it will heat up enough to make it worth moving him.  It apparently didn't this past July.

PseudoSABR Cedar Rapids Kernels

PseudoSABR

Verified Member
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Santana isn't the kind of guy playoff caliber teams target in the offseason, as he'd round out their rotation at best.  He should have more value at the trade deadline, when starting pitching is thinner, and more teams have stumbled into contention.

TheLeviathan MVP

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
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Santana isn't the kind of guy playoff caliber teams target in the offseason, as he'd round out their rotation at best.  He should have more value at the trade deadline, when starting pitching is thinner, and more teams have stumbled into contention.

 

Perhaps, it also means the Twins assume a lot of risk that come July 31st he is even a player they'd want.  Or at a price we'd want to move him for.

PseudoSABR Cedar Rapids Kernels

PseudoSABR

Verified Member
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Perhaps, it also means the Twins assume a lot of risk that come July 31st he is even a player they'd want.  Or at a price we'd want to move him for.

Sure.  But I imagine they're not getting much in the way of prospect offers for him.  I'd take the risk of him having more value at the deadline, then dealing him for mediocre return now.

diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Santana was an above average AL starter last year... and well enough above average I might add that he would have a spot on just about any team's starting rotation.  To put in perspective among starters:

 

ERA - 23rd overall

WHIP - 33rd overall

K - 54th overall

WAR - 32 overall

 

That was right off of ESPN.  I'm really not sure why it is people peg him as a #3-5. He's a borderline top 30 pitcher in all of baseball, which includes the NL where pitchers get a nice bump due to having a free out in the lineup. He's not going to get you a top 30 prospect if that's the question. He's cheap (2 inexpensive years plus an option), but he's also getting old (more risk) and has a PED suspension under his belt (still more risk). That does devalue him, but getting one or two B level prospects should be very doable if he's for sale. Whether that's worth it to MN, I don't know. 

TheLeviathan MVP

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
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Sure.  But I imagine they're not getting much in the way of prospect offers for him.  I'd take the risk of him having more value at the deadline, then dealing him for mediocre return now.

 

None of know what the offers are behind the scenes.  But this offseason hasn't exactly been light on returns for sellers.

 

I'm not sure we're actually shopping him though.  

Vanimal46 Cooperstown

Vanimal46

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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None of know what the offers are behind the scenes.  But this offseason hasn't exactly been light on returns for sellers.

 

I'm not sure we're actually shopping him though.  

Yep, it feels very similar to Plouffe last year... The potential was there to sell him off for a modest return, but they didn't actively shop him.  

Mr. Brooks Cedar Rapids Kernels

Mr. Brooks

Verified Member
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What? Being suspended 2 years ago isn't effecting his value right now.

Sure it does.

Each time you get caught, the punishment increases.

I believe he's facing a full season ban next time.

That carries more risk than a player without a previous suspension.

diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Sure it does.
Each time you get caught, the punishment increases.
I believe he's facing a full season ban next time.
That carries more risk than a player without a previous suspension.

the key word is risk.  Risk is hard to put a price on.  If Santana was 30 instead of 34 and didn't have a suspension under his belt (and yes, the next one is a full season), we'd be talking a Dozier level return.

 

I'm fairly certain Santana could net a guy near the bottom of the top 100 with what would likely be a B/B- prospect on Sickle's scale as a second piece. The question is whether or not that is enough to make it worth parting with him, I don't know.  Truthfully, he's exactly the type of guy someone will overpay for in July if he's still pitching well, and given the team's need for pitching, that the guys being targeted in the Dozier trade are not exactly established starters, and our current lack of depth in the high minors, it may make a ton more sense to keep him and flip him if things pan out positively... of course then we absorb all the risk :)

  • 2 months later...
Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I'd love to trade with Boston. They have some serious talent in AA and AAA. 

 

Rosario and Santana for Benintenientdodioosiodi*

 

:) make it happen!

 

*not sure I spelled that correctly, btw.

Seth Stohs GOAT

Seth Stohs

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

 

I'd love to trade with Boston. They have some serious talent in AA and AAA. 

 

Rosario and Santana for Benintenientdodioosiodi*

 

:) make it happen!

 

*not sure I spelled that correctly, btw.

 

 

Close enough. 

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

You could probably get Benintenientdodioosiodi... but not Benintendi. :)

 

Seriously, though, while losing Price would hurt and I am sure Boston would explore options, they do have the luxury of Eduardo Rodriguez at #6 on their current depth chart, so I doubt they'd have to do anything quite so desperate.

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