Baseball America Top 10 Twins Prospects

[Seth Stohs]

Michael Lananna wrote up the Twins Top 10 Prospects rankings. Here are his:

 

1) Nick Gordon

2) Stephen Gonsalves

3) Alex Kirilloff

4) Fernando Romero

5) Tyler Jay

6) Adalberto Mejia 

7) Kohl Stewart 

8) Felix Jorge

9) Daniel Palka

10) Travis Blankenhorn

 

 

The Top 5 are the same for me... I had them: Gonsalves, Romero, Kirilloff, Gordon, Jay.

 

Fun list.

[mikelink45]

I enjoy seeing outside opinions.  Seth, you are the source for what I know about the young players and I really appreciate your insights, but its good when we see your thoughts backed up by these national and hopefully impartial rankings.  It helps me to see the big picture.

But one thing rankings do not do is give me a real sense of MLB potential.  I know these are the best of what we have, but how far down the list do we go with real star potential and front line potential?  From what I have read of the reports this year I am not sure I see a real potential for the major league team in the last five, although they could be role players.  What do you think?

[Mike Sixel]

Everyone keeps typing Gordon will stay at SS.....(assuming that is the case here), and yet, so many on these boards keep saying he won't....

 

as for the post above mine, wait for Fangrpahs....their write ups provide both a scouting and math set of scores and floors, ceilings, and likely outcomes.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Everyone keeps typing Gordon will stay at SS.....(assuming that is the case here), and yet, so many on these boards keep saying he won't....

So those who don't have BA, the Gordon write up isn't sparkling but like his SS defense it covers the fundamental essentials; they point to his preparation and work ethic as sticking points for being a SS in the future.  Gordon has a plus arm but he isn't going to light up the SS highlight reel like a Lindor or Russell or Simmons but he has the skills to be an average to tick above at the position.

[ashbury]

This top-ten list... if they develop according to the way they are projected, and with no big surprises on the upside... then supplemented with role players for the rest of a 25-man... doesn't look like a pennant winner to me, like our prospect lists from a few years ago did.

[Thrylos]

The facts that a guy who was traded for Nunez is the 6th best prospect and a late recent first round pick their number 3 prospect does not say much for the system.

 

Unless of course the author of the ranking has a bias against IFAs who have not yet played on A+ or higher.

 

That's the problem here.  Any Twins top-10 list that does not include (at least) Diaz and Javier should be suspect...

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

This top-ten list... if they develop according to the way they are projected, and with no big surprises on the upside... then supplemented with role players for the rest of a 25-man... doesn't look like a pennant winner to me, like our prospect lists from a few years ago did.

 

 

I guess the optimistic read on this would be that the jury is still out on the most recent wave of really good Twins prospects, and they still could be the core of a pennant winner. So this list, and the current state of the system, is more about the kind of depth that might fill around them (plus the handful of high-ceiling guys who are much farther away--Javier, Kirilloff, Diaz.)

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I enjoy seeing outside opinions.  Seth, you are the source for what I know about the young players and I really appreciate your insights, but its good when we see your thoughts backed up by these national and hopefully impartial rankings.  It helps me to see the big picture.

But one thing rankings do not do is give me a real sense of MLB potential.  I know these are the best of what we have, but how far down the list do we go with real star potential and front line potential?  From what I have read of the reports this year I am not sure I see a real potential for the major league team in the last five, although they could be role players.  What do you think?

 

First, thank you for your kinda words. Second, I read everything I can get my hands on regarding Twins minor leaguers, and then talk to a bunch of other people, and develop my opinions. So, they're all based on something. It's great to get the national perspective too.

 

I always look at it like this. The top 1-3 prospects are the guys you hope can be stars, at least reliable everyday guys for several years. Prospects 3-8, you're hoping they're guys who have a solid showing in the big leagues, hopefully regulars, mid-rotation starters, strong bullpen types. Outside of that, you're hoping for guys who can help the big leauge club in some way, a bench bat, a 5th or 6th starter, a backend of the bullpen type.  

 

And you know that most prospects never become stars. In fact, most don't become regulars quality players. It'd hard. 

 

For me, I think the Top 5 guys on my list (which are the same as this list) can be regular big leaguers. The "star" quality is probably in the guys who are already up now (Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, maybe Polanco). 

 

The other thing to remember is that sometimes guys who haven't played long in the minor leagues (recently drafted, after the 1st or 2nd round), and there are always late-bloomers. A guy like Lewin Diaz (who I ranked 6th and the TD Twitter voted 19)... he's high-risk, very high reward. Trey Cabbage is a 20-something prospect, but he has a very high ceiling, but he's raw. So, there'll always be guys who make big jumps up (or down) these lists. Just because a guy ranks #39 or something doesn't mean they don't have value to the organization.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Everyone keeps typing Gordon will stay at SS.....(assuming that is the case here), and yet, so many on these boards keep saying he won't....

 

as for the post above mine, wait for Fangrpahs....their write ups provide both a scouting and math set of scores and floors, ceilings, and likely outcomes.

 

I think he can. I think it's certainly worth keeping him there as long as possible. But of the people I've talked to, it's more like 50/50 for whether or not he can or will stay at short. If he does, he'll be an adequate shortstop. If not, the others say that he will be a very good second baseman. 

[Mr. Brooks]

First, thank you for your kinda words. Second, I read everything I can get my hands on regarding Twins minor leaguers, and then talk to a bunch of other people, and develop my opinions. So, they're all based on something. It's great to get the national perspective too.

 

I always look at it like this. The top 1-3 prospects are the guys you hope can be stars, at least reliable everyday guys for several years. Prospects 3-8, you're hoping they're guys who have a solid showing in the big leagues, hopefully regulars, mid-rotation starters, strong bullpen types. Outside of that, you're hoping for guys who can help the big leauge club in some way, a bench bat, a 5th or 6th starter, a backend of the bullpen type.

 

And you know that most prospects never become stars. In fact, most don't become regulars quality players. It'd hard.

 

For me, I think the Top 5 guys on my list (which are the same as this list) can be regular big leaguers. The "star" quality is probably in the guys who are already up now (Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, maybe Polanco).

 

The other thing to remember is that sometimes guys who haven't played long in the minor leagues (recently drafted, after the 1st or 2nd round), and there are always late-bloomers. A guy like Lewin Diaz (who I ranked 6th and the TD Twitter voted 19)... he's high-risk, very high reward. Trey Cabbage is a 20-something prospect, but he has a very high ceiling, but he's raw. So, there'll always be guys who make big jumps up (or down) these lists. Just because a guy ranks #39 or something doesn't mean they don't have value to the organization.

A team would have to have a pretty dang loaded pipeline if their #8 prospect became a mid rotation starter.

 

For perspective, that is likely Gonsalves (your #1) CEILING.

[Seth Stohs]

 

A team would have to have a pretty dang loaded pipeline if their #8 prospect became a mid rotation starter.

For perspective, that is likely Gonsalves (your #1) CEILING.

 

Correct... but a year ago, Gonsalves was about the #6-8 prospect... But when 5 guys ahead of him (all with high ceiling potential) lose their prospect eligibility, it puts things into perspective.

[Mr. Brooks]

Correct... but a year ago, Gonsalves was about the #6-8 prospect... But when 5 guys ahead of him (all with high ceiling potential) lose their prospect eligibility, it puts things into perspective.

Fair enough, but a year ago, the Twins had a pretty deep pipeline. So I think my point stands.

 

Also, Gonsalves just had his "prove it" season. If he was at this point in his development a year ago, he'd have been higher than #8.

[rukavina]

I keep thinking that if Vielma can hit a lick, he will be the shortstop and Gordon will be the second baseman.  And that we will be solid (perhaps even elite) up the middle for several years.

[Mr. Brooks]

I keep thinking that if Vielma can hit a lick, he will be the shortstop and Gordon will be the second baseman. And that we will be solid (perhaps even elite) up the middle for several years.

I think Polanco will have a better bat than Gordon, and probably by a lot. So I'm not sure why Gordon over Polanco at 2B.

Just my opinion though. Some people think Gordon has the tools to hit better than he's shown.

[ashbury]

I keep thinking that if Vielma can hit a lick

But that is precisely what the jury is still out on, about him. And until he proves it one way or the other you need to keep Gordon in the picture as a SS.

 

These things will sort themselves out, if not rushed.

[Thrylos]

 

But that is precisely what the jury is still out on, about him. And until he proves it one way or the other you need to keep Gordon in the picture as a SS.

 

These things will sort themselves out, if not rushed.

 

Here is a fun number:

 

.338/.407/.416

 

switch hitting Vielma's slash line from the right side (vs. .249/.325/.287 as a LHB.)  He is a natural righty and he throws right.  Poster boy of quitting switch hitting.  Hope this FO will be a bit more aggressive in fixing issues like this.

[DocBauer]

I sure hope does stick at SS. Haven't we heard that he's still filing out more and a little more power might still be coming?

 

I don't pretend to know a lot about these guys, except for what I read of course, and don't have near the knowledge of Seth and others, but it sure sounds like Gordon will bring a decent bat and overall performance numbers wise.

[DocBauer]

Fair enough, but a year ago, the Twins had a pretty deep pipeline. So I think my point stands.

Also, Gonsalves just had his "prove it" season. If he was at this point in his development a year ago, he'd have been higher than #8.

And I would say his "prove it season" was highly encouraging. I think we'd all like to see a little more velocity, and he's so young that I think he's still projectable. I don't know if he's an eventual #2 or #3, but I'm impressed and encouraged. I think he's going to be a fixture for some time.

[Rosterman]

It's fun to look at lists like this and wonder what happened to those that never made it, and to see those that were just so-so: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/prospects/byTeam.asp?T=17

[kab21]

 

This top-ten list... if they develop according to the way they are projected, and with no big surprises on the upside... then supplemented with role players for the rest of a 25-man... doesn't look like a pennant winner to me, like our prospect lists from a few years ago did.

This isn't a big surprise though. The Twins have graduated Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios and Polanco. That is a lot of talent that left the system recent and that is the core of the team that will decide if this team is a pennant winner. The farm system is needed to supplement that core and there is some promise to fill in gaps with the farm system but not a lot of star power near the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Here is a fun number:

 

.338/.407/.416

 

switch hitting Vielma's slash line from the right side (vs. .249/.325/.287 as a LHB.)  He is a natural righty and he throws right.  Poster boy of quitting switch hitting.  Hope this FO will be a bit more aggressive in fixing issues like this.

 

Amen.

[gunnarthor]

I think this is still a fairly encouraging list.  Since 2012, the Twins have graduated 10 top 100 prospects out of their system plus a few other guys who had been top 100 previously (May, Rosario) as well as a number of players who weren't on prospect lists - Dozier being the best.  That's pretty good.  And the system still has a few pretty exciting guys that will be in AA or higher next year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think this is still a fairly encouraging list.  Since 2012, the Twins have graduated 10 top 100 prospects out of their system plus a few other guys who had been top 100 previously (May, Rosario) as well as a number of players who weren't on prospect lists - Dozier being the best.  That's pretty good.  And the system still has a few pretty exciting guys that will be in AA or higher next year.

 

And yet they are still terrible. So, while the lists are fun, something isn't working in MN, to have 10 top 100 players, and still be terrible. As the owner said, there is some kind of total system failure.

[gunnarthor]

 

And yet they are still terrible. So, while the lists are fun, something isn't working in MN, to have 10 top 100 players, and still be terrible. As the owner said, there is some kind of total system failure.

Well, there can be lots of reasons why which seems to be a different thread.  But several of the ten guys straight out bombed - Benson and Hicks.  Pinto was borderline but I guess you can blame it on injuries.  Arcia had a good couple years and then bombed out.  Gibson is a ML starter.  Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Sano and Berrios are still in wait and see?  

 

I tend to be more glass is half full than you and what I think we're seeing is a pretty good farm system turning guys who wouldn't normally be into pretty decent prospects so Steil has built up some pretty decent depth even after those graduations.  They were in playoff contention all of 2015 and while last year sucked most of that can be blamed on the pitching side (and coaching).  Offensively, they seem to have the pieces for a pretty good nucleus.  But, again, that's not really this thread.  

[kab21]

 

And yet they are still terrible. So, while the lists are fun, something isn't working in MN, to have 10 top 100 players, and still be terrible. As the owner said, there is some kind of total system failure.

The bulk of them still only have 1 or 2 years MLB experience. A few have disappointed (Buxton and Berrios). Building through the farm system doesn't yield immediate results.

[Monkeypaws]

I'm pretty bullish on this group, more than most in the case of Stewart and Gordon. Most of them have done pretty well playing years below league average, and have good tools. 

 

[DocBauer]

Please baseball gods, please keep Romero healthy and let him be what it looks like he could potentially be.

 

Amen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The bulk of them still only have 1 or 2 years MLB experience. A few have disappointed (Buxton and Berrios). Building through the farm system doesn't yield immediate results.

 

Tell that to Chicago and Houston....

[gunnarthor]

 

Tell that to Chicago and Houston....

Houston had 6 losing seasons in a row - including three historic ones - and, while many still refuse to accept it, the Cubs success had much more to do with their FA signings and trades than their farm system.  The Twins had 4 losing seasons, a winning one and a season from the depths of hell (which would only have been the Astros 4th worst losing season in their little run).  

 

[kab21]

 

Tell that to Chicago and Houston....

I don't agree with every (or many) decision that the Twins have made but the Twins had a rather mediocre farm system (especially at the upper levels) when the MLB team fell apart. Pointing out two teams that rebuilt in different ways is meaningless. And yes I am frustrated by this but it isn't that unexpected that prospects take longer than a year or two to become good/great.