Mackey: Good Chance Twins Are Punting 2013

[Thrylos]

My opinion is that Baker is back on an incentive type deal with a club option. Makes too much sense for both parties.

Might make sense for the Twins but might not make sense for Baker.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Baker has enough success that I wouldn't be surprised if a team threw a 3 year deal at him with a lower first season and a nice payout years 2 and 3... I wouldn't be surprised if that team was Minnesota, but I do hope that resigning Baker is not the only option the Twins plan to explore this year.

[Nick Nelson]

No one's giving a three-year deal to a guy coming off TJ surgery. That simply doesn't happen. Especially considering that Baker was never that durable to begin with.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Baker will get a one year, incentive laden deal just like almost every other pitcher who loses a season to injury.

[Mike Sixel]

I would pretty much stop caring if they punt. I would also stop coming here as much, as the koolaid camp vs the negative camp would just get too ugly to enjoy, as people will move to the extremes.....

[Winston Smith]

I would doubt Baker even gets an offer until next spring/early summer when he can prove he can pitch again. He likely won't be ready to pitch until June.

 

There isn't the extra draft picks a team could get in the past. Not having all those extra picks like we had this year means that they better be good because you have less chances. That comes back to the scouts and player evaluation guys, they are the same guys that said Nishi was the real deal, they said Ramos wasn't considered a top prospect anymore (a direct quote from Ryan after that trade). So yes Smith did a poor job but the guys providing the info are the same with the same guy in charge of drafting. Ryan has a scout background so he may do his own work unlike Smith but the real change is the talking head is now Ryan and not Smith. Not exactly a purge of the org.

[Erock]

The Twins aren't going to splash in free agency this year, but that doesn't mean they aren't going to sign people to the rotation, but if all of the Jackson, Marcum, Sanchez, McCarthy types demand too much money than I imagine the Twins will settle for Scott Baker, Joe Blanton, Jeremy Guthrie and god knows who to try and put something together.

[Nick Nelson]

In this division, and with this core, I think outright "punting" the 2013 season would be a big mistake and I doubt that is truly Ryan's intention. The last time the Twins "punted" a season was 2008, when they gave up Santana, Garza and Hunter, then came within a game of making the playoffs.

 

Every move should be made with the organization's long-term health in mind, but that's not mutually exclusive from putting a competitive product on the field next year.

[jokin]

In this division, and with this core, I think outright "punting" the 2013 season would be a big mistake and I doubt that is truly Ryan's intention. The last time the Twins "punted" a season was 2008, when they gave up Santana, Garza and Hunter, then came within a game of making the playoffs.

 

Every move should be made with the organization's long-term health in mind, but that's not mutually exclusive from putting a competitive product on the field next year.

"Mutually exclusive"?....sounds more like "caught in the middle of a Catch-22" situation.

[fatbeer]

When you need pitching free agency is not much of an option, if somehow Diamond keeps his success up next year and we develop 1 more we might be alright.

[Highabove]

A large number of Season Ticket Holders will be punting too.

[Jim Crikket]

Might make sense for the Twins but might not make sense for Baker.

I was thinking the same thing. Especially if Baker and his agent believe the Twins medical staff has been less than spectacular with regard to addressing his injury(ies). He may not want to trust what's left of his career to the same staff. Not to mention, he (like every other player his age) may prefer to see if he can hook on to an organization more committed to competing within the next year or two.

[Highabove]

2013 Free Agents *= Currant Team has an option

 

Starting Pitchers

Scott Baker *

Joe Blanton

Matt Cain

Fausto Carmona *

Kevin Correia

Jorge De La Rosa *

R.A. Dickey *

Scott Feldman *

Gavin Floyd *

Zack Greinke

Jeremy Guthrie

Cole Hamels

Dan Haren *

Tim Hudson *

Colby Lewis

Francisco Liriano

Kyle Lohse

Derek Lowe

Shaun Marcum

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Brandon McCarthy

Brett Myers *

Carl Pavano

Jake Peavy *

Anibal Sanchez

Jonathan Sanchez

Ervin Santana *

Joe Saunders

James Shields *

Jake Westbrook *

Randy Wolf *

Carlos Zambrano *

[Nick Nelson]

"Mutually exclusive"?....sounds more like "caught in the middle of a Catch-22" situation.

In what way is it a Catch-22? You sign one legit mid-tier free agent (a Marcum or Blanton type), you maybe gamble on one or two other risk/reward plays (Baker, Matsuzaka, Carmona - er, Hernandez), trade Span or Morneau for an arm, and you hope Diamond can keep it rolling and Blackburn is usable. If Gibson or Hendriks are able to give you something, all the better.

 

There are ways to envision a decent rotation here next year without requiring a huge free agent spending spree, which is why I feel that Mackey's conclusion was a bit of a stretch.

[JB_Iowa]

They can't afford to punt. But they are in a bit of a tough spot on the timing.

 

They have to somehow convince season ticket holders that they will be "competitive" next year (or at least respectable) but most of their moves probably can't/won't be made until after the date by which they normally ask season ticket holders to make those decisions.

 

It puts ticketholders in a bad spot as well.

 

I really look for a giant spin machine -- and a number of promotions for season ticketholders -- to try to drive that traffic early.

 

Then I think they will budget in the range of $90 million (maybe a little more). So assuming that the $76 million estimate is right on current players that probably leaves about $24 million (or thereabouts) for whatever additions they may make.

 

As Nick said, certainly enough to sign one mid-tier free agent pitcher (look for them to overpay a little to reduce the length to 2 years if possible and no more than 3); plus a higher risk/higher reward plus "tinkering" money to fill some other holes.

 

Overall, it leaves me pretty blah -- but then I've been calling for them to remake this team since October 2010 (despite the 94 wins).

[edavis0308]

I kind of hope they would go for someone like McCarthy, but the dude is ALWAYS injured.

[Nick Nelson]

As Nick said, certainly enough to sign one mid-tier free agent pitcher (look for them to overpay a little to reduce the length to 2 years if possible and no more than 3); plus a higher risk/higher reward plus "tinkering" money to fill some other holes.

Plus, if they can trade Span or Morneau (eating half his salary or so) then their commitments for next year lower to ~$70M. Assuming they're serious about keeping payroll around $100M, that'd give them close to $30 million to spend on starting pitching and (if Span's dealt) a right fielder. I really don't know what other needs they have. Maybe another reliever.

[snepp]

I really don't know what other needs they have.

Other than the embarrassment of riches they have in the middle infield?

[Mike Sixel]

JB, that leaves $14MM, not $24....

[Nick Nelson]

Other than the embarrassment of riches they have in the middle infield?

Obviously not ideal, but I think they can survive with some alignment of Carroll/Escobar/Dozier up the middle. They've had one of the best offenses in the league since May despite no production from second or short.

[jorgenswest]

There are three roads.

 

1) Punt 2013

2) Go for it in 2013

3) Try to be competitive in 2013

 

They aren't punting. To do so would require trading off aging assets. You trade Willingham if you are punting. You don't sign Doumit. You start investing playing time in Parmelee.

 

Are they going for it? We will see. Hard to imagine they will increase the budget in order to buy a pitching staff that can contend.

 

My fear is that they will do neither. They will sign some decline phase players to fill holes and hope to hang around .500 long enough to give the impression of being competitive. In the end, they will enter 2014 with an aging roster following a 75-85 win season.

[Badsmerf]

There are three roads.

 

1) Punt 2013

2) Go for it in 2013

3) Try to be competitive in 2013

 

They aren't punting. To do so would require trading off aging assets. You trade Willingham if you are punting. You don't sign Doumit. You start investing playing time in Parmelee.

 

Are they going for it? We will see. Hard to imagine they will increase the budget in order to buy a pitching staff that can contend.

 

My fear is that they will do neither. They will sign some decline phase players to fill holes and hope to hang around .500 long enough to give the impression of being competitive. In the end, they will enter 2014 with an aging roster following a 75-85 win season.

Paradox. Only 3 roads to choose from and the Twins choose the 4th: mediocrity. RP, can you bring back the mediocre thread from BYTO? Classic meltdown.

[Highabove]

http://www.idealog.co.nz/images/issues/9/road-to-nowhere-spread.jpg

[JB_Iowa]

JB, that leaves $14MM, not $24....

Good grief .... take me back to basic math, please.

[BD57]

Can't solve this problem with one big FA starting pitcher (IMO), which makes it unlikely that Ryan will want to go that route - chews up too much money on a roster with too many other holes.

 

We're more competitive with the starting 8 this year than last - which isn't hard to do - but we're not "contender class" there yet (IMO). What we'd need (a) Mauer stays healthy and productive; ( Willingham continues to produce; © Morneau returns to pre-concussion form; (d) Plouffe proves he can do it consistently; (e) middle infield becomes more useful offensively.

 

Biggest issue is starting rotation. We don't have reason to be comfortable with any of them - getting more so with Diamond, start by start, but I want to see more.

 

IMO, the plan is to rebuild the farm system & use FA to add complimentary / "last" pieces. We aren't close to needing "last pieces" yet.

[johnnydakota]

jim pohlad.......if the wheels arnt falling off the brinks truck he wont fix anything that reqiures time or money.....

[drjim]

That is a not a deep class of free agent starting pitchers.

 

If they sign one decent guy, trade an OF for another and take a flier or two that would be a success.

[drjim]

I just hope it doesn't mean they will be further slashing payroll, or not take advantage of what is going to be a crazy deep pitching free agent class.

Crazy deep pitching free agent class? Please expound on that point.

[DaveW]

Crazy deep pitching free agent class? Please expound on that point.

Yeah I am a bit curious on that as well.

If anything it looks like a solid but not great pitching class, also I'd wager there is a damn good chance that Sanchez never sees the Free Agent market (from what I have been told), and wouldn't be shocked if Grienke didn't see it as well.

[DaveW]

Obviously not ideal, but I think they can survive with some alignment of Carroll/Escobar/Dozier up the middle. They've had one of the best offenses in the league since May despite no production from second or short.

There is also the long shot that Nishioka could contribute as well, and a guy like Mastrionni could potentially play some 2B as well.

 

You can live with a couple crappy bats in the lineup as long as the other 7 are solid. People seem to forget the Twins won multiple division titles with guys like Punto, Tolbert, Castro, Bautista, etc getting a ton of at bats.

 

Plus we could probably got out and get a guy like Kelly Johnson to handle 2B who would be rather affordable if we needed to.