Reusse: Falvey will need time

[Ncgo4]

Any one who thinks an eleven year old (excuse me, 33 year old) can walk into the Minnesota Twims front office, snap his fingers and have a totally new staff in place is nuts. In the first place he will need to prioritize the order of which changes to make which will likely be a very large task. Secondly, he must convince people that both he and the Twins are the destination to which they should hitch their wagons.

 

My guess is that the most immediate task will be to redo thr coaching ranks throughout the system.

[nicksaviking]

Bringing in an entire new staff obviously isn't feasible, however at the same time I'm worried that Falvey will have to hold the hands of Anthony/Johnson/Steil/Radcliff teaching them how a modern day front office needs to work when he really needs to focus on Dozier/Santana decisions and restructuring the scouting and development teams. This may be the team's biggest year to rebuild with two really good tradable vets and being in the catbird seat for the draft.

 

At the very least he needs another like-mind from outside ASAP, hopefully a half-dozen.

[beckmt]

Bringing in an entire new staff obviously isn't feasible, however at the same time I'm worried that Falvey will have to hold the hands of Anthony/Johnson/Steil/Radcliff teaching them how a modern day front office needs to work when he really needs to focus on Dozier/Santana decisions and restructuring the scouting and development teams. This may be the team's biggest year to rebuild with two really good tradable vets and being in the catbird seat for the draft.

 

At the very least he needs another like-mind from outside ASAP, hopefully a half-dozen.

Do not think he has the time for this type of integration this year. Outside of replacing/demoting Anotony and bringing a like minded GM on board, my best hope is the replacement of some of the minor league coaches/instructors to clean up the lack of fundementals issues we are seeing in our young players. The rest will have to wait until next year. Do not see him replacing more than a few scouts in the first year, or the scouting/minor league structure in the top areas.

[USAFChief]

I want to see immediate impact. He's obviously not going to come in and fire everyone. But he was hired to change "total system failure. "

 

Let's get on with it. He obviously had some ideas he put forth to win the interview. I doubt that included "keep the current guys in place."

 

Identify the 2 or 3 biggest problems and try somebody else. Now. Thus winter. This organization can't afford to keep draining fans. And there's no reason they can't be decent next year, with a good off season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Bringing in an entire new staff obviously isn't feasible, however at the same time I'm worried that Falvey will have to hold the hands of Anthony/Johnson/Steil/Radcliff teaching them how a modern day front office needs to work when he really needs to focus on Dozier/Santana decisions and restructuring the scouting and development teams. This may be the team's biggest year to rebuild with two really good tradable vets and being in the catbird seat for the draft.

 

At the very least he needs another like-mind from outside ASAP, hopefully a half-dozen.

The bolded is why he needs a GM who buys into his platform. Day to day events, executing trades, etc. should be the General Manager's duty while Falvey works on the large-scale organizational changes.

 

And given Antony's deadline moves, he might not be the worst GM in that kind of structured format. His trades weren't OMG TEH BEST!!!1 but he held his own when negotiating with other General Managers.

 

Obviously Falvey would sign off on any high profile move but he doesn't have to be the guy compiling scouting reports and talking to other GMs on a daily basis.

[dxpavelka]

 

I think Anthropolous or his agent could have been asked about it, and given an honest answer of disinterest, even if they weren't on the list.

 

Or Reusse could be mistaken about the details -- maybe Anthropolous didn't make the "interview list" because he declined Korn Ferry before the Twins even got involved making their list.

 

Jon Morosi reported that Anthropolous was a "confirmed candidate" at one point, maybe that report was erroneous but prompted the press to ask him about his interest anyway.

 

I don't think we know nearly enough to judge Anthropolous or his agent here.

I don't know that it matters.

[dxpavelka]

Anyone remember way back when the D-Backs were geniuses for bringing in Tony Larussa who begat Dave Stewart who begat Chip Hale?  SEE YA!

 

[nicksaviking]

 

And given Antony's deadline moves, he might not be the worst GM in that kind of structured format. His trades weren't OMG TEH BEST!!!1 but he held his own when negotiating with other General Managers.

 

Obviously Falvey would sign off on any high profile move but he doesn't have to be the guy compiling scouting reports and talking to other GMs on a daily basis.

 

I said at the trade deadline that I preferred to hang on to Santana because I wanted the next GM to make the decision. I'm not saying that Anthony would surely get it wrong, and I'm not saying that a Falvey picked GM would surely get it right. I just don't think I feel comfortable with the same guys who have been doing this the past two decades doing all the leg work.

 

I don't think Falvey should feel comfortable with it either. If it fails with Anthony making the deal, will everyone lay it as a failure at Falvey's feet? If it works out, will everyone instead credit Terry Ryan as Anthony is his disciple, not Falvey's?

[nicksaviking]

 

Anyone remember way back when the D-Backs were geniuses for bringing in Tony Larussa who begat Dave Stewart who begat Chip Hale?  SEE YA!

 

No, I remember when people thought it was a steal when they got La russa. I don't recall people celebrating Stewart and I certainly don't remember them cheering Hale who was seen as a hard-nosed old school manager even though that's exactly what they just fired in Kirk Gibson.

 

I don't think La russa is a very hands-on president, not in the vein of Epstein, Beane or Freidman anyway. I think he looked at it as a low-effort retirement gig where he could be a figurehead and delegate responsibilities. He should have been fired too; I wonder if he may have some ownership percentage that people aren't talking or don't know about.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I said at the trade deadline that I preferred to hang on to Santana because I wanted the next GM to make the decision. I'm not saying that Anthony would surely get it wrong, and I'm not saying that a Falvey picked GM would surely get it right. I just don't think I feel comfortable with the same guys who have been doing this the past two decades doing all the leg work.

 

I don't think Falvey should feel comfortable with it either. If it fails with Anthony making the deal, will everyone lay it as a failure at Falvey's feet? If it works out, will everyone instead credit Terry Ryan as Anthony is his disciple, not Falvey's?

When you get right down to it, I don't think many of the Twins' trades and/or free agent signings have been that bad.

 

To me, the biggest (but not only) problem is what happens when the guy gets here. Worley is terrible, then traded. Nolasco is terrible, then traded. Worley has been competent two out of three seasons since leaving the team. Magically, Nolasco became a competent pitcher again roughly five minutes after he left the team. Inversely, Santiago turned into a dumpster fire the moment he donned a Twins uniform. Hughes was a fantastic signing until they inexplicably double-downed on him after a single season.

 

And that's not even bringing up inexplicable issues like the fact that an obvious starter in May is relieving and an obvious reliever in Duffey is starting.

 

On the other hand, guys like Escobar have been pretty good returns on flailing talent (that, again, seemed to do pretty well for themselves in another organization).

 

Combine that with the bizarre performances we've seen from Arcia, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, et al, and there's reason to believe the largest problem exists somewhere in coaching, not talent acquisition.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Anyone remember way back when the D-Backs were geniuses for bringing in Tony Larussa who begat Dave Stewart who begat Chip Hale?  SEE YA!

 

No, I recall no one who said those were good ideas.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No, I recall no one who said those were good ideas.

I remember many people who make decisions based on name recognition thinking the moves were good ideas.

 

The rest of the world, maybe not so much.

 

(one of my pet peeves is people advocating someone get a job because we recognize their name from an entirely different job... eg. Obama for the Supreme Court).

[Jerr]

 

I want to see immediate impact. He's obviously not going to come in and fire everyone. But he was hired to change "total system failure. "

Let's get on with it. He obviously had some ideas he put forth to win the interview. I doubt that included "keep the current guys in place."

Identify the 2 or 3 biggest problems and try somebody else. Now. Thus winter. This organization can't afford to keep draining fans. And there's no reason they can't be decent next year, with a good off season.

"total system failure. "

Bingo!!!!! we have a winner!!!!!

And above in bold.....I want to see immediate impact.

[Doomtints]

"Falvey will need time" is a bit of a silly thing to say.  If there's one thing baseball GMs get, that's plenty of time.  Falvey will get what Ryan got his second time around as a minimum.  Barring more 100 loss seasons, a huge scandal, or him getting a better offer, he probably has the next decade of his life sewn up.  

 

I don't suspect any other Twins GM will get the Bill Smith treatment.  A good general policy when handing a job off to someone else is to not hang around in the employee lounge waiting for the new guy to fail.  The Twins won't have Ryan to fall back on if the new GM has one bad year, which is apparently a very good thing.  

 

Everyone understands that it's a best case scenario for Falvey to turn things around in 2-3 years.  Everyone knows its unlikely ot happen.  But, I would hope, everyone understands that this should be the goal regardless.

[Mr. Brooks]

Overall, I agree with everything in the article except the last paragraph. Reusse is taking a tempered approach and I commend him for that. We need to give this guy some space to do what needs to be done, as hard as that is in the short-term.

 

But this line didn't really sit with me:

 

"The Twins will be fortunate if the quote from Falvey’s front office next fall is, “We were just trying to get organized and we made it to fourth place in the division.’’

 

I don't buy it. That's setting expectations a bit too low, in my opinion. Overhauling this pitching staff in a single offseason is going to be a monumental task but this Twins offense is too good to finish fourth place.

 

The goal should be mid 70s wins. Yes, that's a huge jump but not an entirely unreasonable expectation. Buxton surged at the end of the season. Polanco looks like a solid piece. Kepler will likely have growing pains but should hold his own out there. Sano should be primed for a bounce back season. Berrios is the wild card right now but if he can turn into an average pitcher, that's a 5 WAR swing in itself.

 

And that's not even bringing up Dozier. He's either with the team and posts 4-ish WAR or he's flipped for a guy who can help the team in 2017. At least that's what I want to see.

 

Pick up a smattering of competent bullpen pieces and this team should go from horrible to just bad.

I disagree. I don't think win totals should be any part of your goals for year 1 with a new regime. I don't want any long term corners cut for the sake of winning 74 games instead of 68.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I disagree. I don't think win totals should be any part of your goals for year 1 with a new regime. I don't want any long term corners cut for the sake of winning 74 games instead of 68.

Where did I say they should cut corners?

 

Young players improving directly correlates to wins. This team shouldn't be focused on wins first and foremost but they should be focused on incremental improvements across the board, which turn into wins.

[Kwak]

Wins not part of the goals for 2017?? Egads the insanity! Given the exceptionally low bar to clear to show improvement? The team basically quit in September. Any spark, any leadership should add at least one win per month to 59! Wins should be added by not playing injured players. Eliminating the "pets" and the "he's out of options guys" will also help. My G! not having the owner panic in May claiming the season is a total disaster will help. 

 

Absolutely wins should be a goal for net year--that's why the game is played.

[jimmer]

Well, we only have one FA.  Some stuff is going to have to seriously happen to make a dent in the horrible team assembled.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, we only have one FA.  Some stuff is going to have to seriously happen to make a dent in the horrible team assembled.

They were -12 in BaseRuns. Yeah, it's my belief bad teams make their own bad luck but that's a rather exceptional number.

 

The entire pitching staff is a problem but there are solutions to shore that up in 2017. It won't be good, it probably won't even be mediocre, but it can certainly improve. The offense looks acceptable, even without Dozier. It has the potential to be quite good if a few young players step forward.

[jimmer]

They were -12 in BaseRuns. Yeah, it's my belief bad teams make their own bad luck but that's a rather exceptional number.

 

The entire pitching staff is a problem but there are solutions to shore that up in 2017. It won't be good, it might not even be mediocre, but it can certainly improve. The offense looks acceptable, even without Dozier. It has the potential to be quite good if a few young players step forward.

-12 in base runs still makes us a 90 loss club.

 

we were also 29th in team defense. So below average hitting, horrific defense and pitching.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

-12 in base runs still makes us a 90 loss club.

we were also 29th in team defense. So below average hitting, horrific defense and pitching.

I am guessing outfield defense pulled that down. None of the worst offenders like Grossman, Arcia, Sano should play a single inning out there in 2017. The starting three will have another year under their belts. Reusse is way off base when he says it will take a miracle to finish fourth next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

-12 in base runs still makes us a 90 loss club.

we were also 29th in team defense. So below average hitting, horrific defense and pitching.

Sure. 90 losses is 72-90 on the season.

 

Which is why I said the goal should be a win total somewhere in the mid 70s. It's a big jump but given the young talent on this team and the possibilities of trading Dozier, that's not unreasonable.

[Doomtints]

 

Worley has been competent two out of three seasons since leaving the team. 

 

Due to off-the-field issues, Worley was demoted and then released by Pittsburgh in spite of playing well for them.

 

Worley expressed sheer panic when Gardenhire declared him the #1 starter.  Worley is bipolar and clearly the Twins had no idea.  If they knew, they would have never put him under that much pressure so soon.  Terry Ryan got duped.  

 

As for Nolasco, he flashed competence as a Twin from time to time.  Let the sample size expand a bit and he will probably be the same pumpkin as when he was a Twin.  

 

Conversely, Santiago had bad stretches before he was a Twin.  Again, let's get a better sample size before we make any bold statements.  

 

As for May, yes I know most Twins fans believed the hype and pegged him as a starter.  I never did.  My only expectation has been that he would be a competent reliever, and he has yet to live up to even that.  This year was a step backward for him as he was plagued with control issues.  At this point he looks like a long shot to even be a good setup guy.  I'm not sure his wild pitches at very bad times can be pegged on the coaching staff.  At some point Twins fans just need to realize that the early Terry Ryan moves were bad trades.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As for outfield defense.

 

In 2016 Sano, Grossman, and Schafer combined for -32 DRS.

 

In 2016 Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler combined for +11 DRS.

 

There are other problems in the infield and catcher but the outfield was atrocious last season. If that happens again in 2017, something went terribly wrong.

[mazeville]

 

Overall, I agree with everything in the article except the last paragraph. Reusse is taking a tempered approach and I commend him for that. We need to give this guy some space to do what needs to be done, as hard as that is in the short-term.

 

But this line didn't really sit with me:

 

"The Twins will be fortunate if the quote from Falvey’s front office next fall is, “We were just trying to get organized and we made it to fourth place in the division.’’

 

I don't buy it. That's setting expectations a bit too low, in my opinion. Overhauling this pitching staff in a single offseason is going to be a monumental task but this Twins offense is too good to finish fourth place.

 

The goal should be mid 70s wins. Yes, that's a huge jump but not an entirely unreasonable expectation. Buxton surged at the end of the season. Polanco looks like a solid piece. Kepler will likely have growing pains but should hold his own out there. Sano should be primed for a bounce back season. Berrios is the wild card right now but if he can turn into an average pitcher, that's a 5 WAR swing in itself.

 

And that's not even bringing up Dozier. He's either with the team and posts 4-ish WAR or he's flipped for a guy who can help the team in 2017. At least that's what I want to see.

 

Pick up a smattering of competent bullpen pieces and this team should go from horrible to just bad.

 

You don't actually disagree all that much with Reusse.

 

In fact, "mid-70s wins" would not have gotten the Twins into fourth place in the AL Central. The Chicago White Sox won 78 games.

 

I think he's fully illustrating the massive, uphill battle that the new CBO will have. This team won just 59 games. 59 games! They could improve by 20 full games and still not get to .500 and would indeed be just in fourth place in the AL Central.

 

Sure, the offense was excellent. But that pitching ... man. 

[Doomtints]

 

Wins not part of the goals for 2017?? Egads the insanity! Given the exceptionally low bar to clear to show improvement? The team basically quit in September. Any spark, any leadership should add at least one win per month to 59! Wins should be added by not playing injured players. Eliminating the "pets" and the "he's out of options guys" will also help. My G! not having the owner panic in May claiming the season is a total disaster will help. 

 

Absolutely wins should be a goal for net year--that's why the game is played.

 

Bringing up Beresford and Albers was a sign by management that they no longer gave a crap.  The players acted as expected by giving up when these perplexing choices were made.  

 

If you remember, there were reports that the Twins were telling Dozier to stop pulling and that they were even considering benching him for it.  He then went on a home run tear, almost immediately.  My suspicion is that this was him telling the coaching staff to stick it where the sun doesn't shine, that he can hit the ball however he damn well wants.  His home runs were NOT opposite field hits.  Dozier vented his frustration with obtuse coaching advice by crushing the ball like he knows how.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

As for outfield defense.

 

In 2016 Sano, Grossman, and Schafer combined for -32 DRS.

 

In 2016 Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler combined for +11 DRS.

 

There are other problems in the infield and catcher but the outfield was atrocious last season. If that happens again in 2017, something went terribly wrong.

 

Holy heck! Those bad numbers are really bad.

[Willihammer]

I completely agree that the easiest way to clean up wins is playing guys in spots where their skills aren't stretched.

 

Can the POBO make sure that happens? The title suggests he's even further from making field decisions than the GM.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Holy heck! Those bad numbers are really bad.

Grossman was absolutely brutal at something like -21 DRS.

[bird]

Falvey can have an immediate impact without firing a bunch of people, with one possible exception: the major league manager and coaches. This team was a lot better than its record. He'll likely be the recipient of an improved record even if Paulie is retained for 2017, simply because it's virtually inconceivable that a team plays that much below its talent level two years running. And secondly, how hard is it going to be to construct a better overall roster? He has both more available talent because of the progression of talent through the system, and he'll no doubt exercise better judgment than his predecessor.

 

When Falvey completes his initial assessment of the overall competence and talent of scouts, development people and FO administrators, I believe he'll actually be impressed in general with the people he has in place, and that his challenge will be to nurture a culture more open to innovation in coaching methods, to deliver the tools and additional training to these people, and to get buy-in to his philosophical framework.

 

When he compares the results of the Twins drafts to the rest of baseball, I think he'll come to the conclusion that his main challenges are in areas other than either talent evaluation or even development. He'll see that the pitching problems are a lot more complex and nuanced than bad drafting.