Article about Twins failure to develop players

[Shane Wahl]

 

Outside of Perkins, the Twins haven't had an impactful home grown pitching talent since Scott Baker, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

Here's an outside the box idea.

 

Trade Sano, Vargas, Park, and every other prospect for pitching. Then go balls-in on Shohei Otani. Have him start 1/5 and DH the other 4 days.

 

Or just go balls-in on Otani.

[Rosterman]

Let's see. We could trade Bonsalves for Denard Span and his current contract. Let's send Tyler Duffey and Tyler Jay to the Nats for Ben Revere.

[USAFChief]

 

And this is relevant because none of these guys would be Twins if Ryan had come back first, right?

I think it's reasonable to question whether the Twins would have spent the money to sign all three if Ryan was the GM.

 

The team has no history of outbidding for foreign talent before or after Smith's tenure.

[Guest]

Seems to me that the definition of patience implies that you don't have a timeline on it.  Like it or not, if patience was the answer last year, it's likely still the answer this year, at least with guys like Buxton, Berrios, Sano, etc. (though I'm really not understanding the lack of such with Sano.  He's already pretty good, comparing him to Bryant, whom we could not have possibly drafted seems rather odd).

 

Now that said,  that doesn't mean that we keep the same coaches, same front office, etc.  I think it's time for some of that to change.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't be patient with some of these kids.

Regardless of the history, of how long we've been hearing that happy days are right around the corner, patience is really the only choice. None of them have had all-star performance yet, and being impatient with the expectation of when that will happen will not make it happen any sooner and may actually be an impediment.

[The Wise One]

 

Patience isn't unlimited.  If I go to my favorite local restaurant (currently Timbermine Steakhouse), I wait patiently to get my food, because I know when I get it, it will be delicious. I'm not, however, waiting two hours to get my food no matter how good of a restaurant it is.

 

We have been waiting a quarter of a century.

If you wait 2 hours for food it is because the tron thinks your a total tool and wants you to leave.  After an hour of no food, the help will have a pool going on how long you will wait.  Your food will come to you moist yet dry at the same time if you make a big enough stink.   Bad analogy   If it is championship or nothing I would hate to see the  posting on the Vikings half century of futility  or the 40 years of hockey futility..   Being impatient over something you have no control over is odd

[Mike Sixel]

And this is relevant because none of these guys would be Twins if Ryan had come back first, right?

Because the post I was responding to credited Ryan for putting together a good list of young hitters, listing those three....

[Major League Ready]

 

It also took them trading Will Meyers and Jake Odorizzi in order to get James Shields and more importantly, as it turned out, Wade Davis.  That's not that far off of Buxton and Berrios....

Many baseball people said the Royals made that move too early.  Personally, I believe they and had options that could have worked out better.  After acquiring Shields / Davis, they had the 13th best record in 2013 at 86-76.  They were obviously not ready.  In 2014 they made the wildcard by the skin of their teeth.  They had the 7th best record at 89-73 and were considered a long shot but they got hot in the playoffs.

 

I believe it was Mike who recently said something to the effect that just because something works out, it is was not necessarily a good decision.  If you asked every GM in the game besides DM, would they trade the Rookie of the Year who would be an all-star 3 years later and strong 3 perhaps even a 2 for the 13th best record in baseball in 2013 and a one game playoff to get a playoff series in 2014, every single one besides DM would answer absolutely not.  Cueto was an entirely different deal because they were obviously ready. 

 

10 cost controlled years of 2 players of that caliber.  It’s not even close.  Heck, they could have traded Odorizzi for the haul Miller brought.  Miller and Odorizzi have almost identical career ERAs and WAR.  Of course, Odorizzi would look very good in their rotation right now and would have extended the Royals window of contention.  Add to that what Meyers could have got them in a major league ready 2B plus SP prospects?  It could have turned out far better.

What if they had instead kept Odorizzi and traded Myers for a ML ready 2B.  Obviously, 20/20 hindsight but the rest of their infield was set for years to come so it’s reasonable to say they could have solidified their infield for years plus got a good AA SP with upside?  They would be better today and for the next few years, plus they would not have needed to trade Manea for Zobrist.  Manea was almost league average in his first year.

 

They took a short-cut and got very lucky.  However, they could have used a different strategy that would have extended their window of contention considerably.  They would probably be in play-off hunt this year and they won the WS after Shields left.  Why were they able to win the WS after Shield left and not when they still had him?  Well, that’s debatable but the most straight forward answer is their team just had not matured to the point where they were ready prior to 2015.  Yes, Davis is not really considered here but I don’t think anyone in the KC organization could say they saw him as a lights out bullpen arm when the deal was made.  Their plan had to be that those two SPs was enough SP because they believed their young core of position players were ready to win the division.  You don’t trade 2 players of that caliber for a wildcard. They were not ready but got hot which was incredibly fortunate.  They were a couple innings away from that deal being a disaster.

 

Summary, they could have had Odorizzi and Manea in their rotation this year.  Plus, Odorizzi for three more years, and Manea for 5 years.  Plus, whatever they got for Meyers.  We will see if they can still win the division before their core hits FA but their odds could have been improved dramatically had they taken a better long-term strategy.  This sounds like a bunch of assumption need to come to fruition in this scenario but all they had to do was keep Odorizzi and get a good 2B in return for Will Myers.  I don't think that is at all a stretch.  They would have also gotten other prospects unless it was one heck a major league ready 2B but this scenario does not require anything more than a good 2B in return for Myers.  There is even more upside had they gotten more.

[Jham]

 

 

Summary, they could have had Odorizzi and Manea in their rotation this year.  Plus, Odorizzi for three more years, and Manea for 5 years.  Plus, whatever they got for Meyers.  We will see if they can still win the division before their core hits FA but their odds could have been improved dramatically had they taken a better long-term strategy.  This sounds like a bunch of assumption need to come to fruition in this scenario but all they had to do was keep Odorizzi and get a good 2B in return for Will Myers.  I don't think that is at all a stretch.  They would have also gotten other prospects unless it was one heck a major league ready 2B but this scenario does not require anything more than a good 2B in return for Myers.  There is even more upside had they gotten more.

I guess we view the Meyer's trade differently.  I think the Royals saw him as expendable and overvalued outside the organization.  The trade worked in their favor, and that's luck?  They were 10 games over .500 and then made the World Series, then won the World Series.  Did the years contending with Shields help that maturation process that ultimately lead them to a WS win?  Would the Royals even be able to keep a whole team of solid players who matured at the same time in order to reap the rewards of their patience?  

And if we view moves in terms of calculated risks (you can make the right move and get the wrong result and vice versa), we can interpret the Royals use of patience under the same light.  IE if you're patient for 25 years, eventually you'll hit a good class.  IF Davis' success was so unpredictable (we agree), then can we say it was somewhat unlikely that the Royals would end up with maybe 3 of the top 5-7 relievers in all of baseball in the same pen?  And if the success of the pen was not predictable, then perhaps the success of the team was unpredictable.  So was patience really the right strategy?  Would the team have been good enough without somewhat lucking into the best pen in the last 20 years of MLB (that I can remember)?  

I'm ok with being patient so long as it does not come at the expense of always always always trying to improve your overall talent level.  In general, I think trying to win is a better strategy than hoping to win.
 

[jimmer]

 

I guess we view the Meyer's trade differently.  I think the Royals saw him as expendable and overvalued outside the organization.  The trade worked in their favor, and that's luck?  They were 10 games over .500 and then made the World Series, then won the World Series.  Did the years contending with Shields help that maturation process that ultimately lead them to a WS win?  Would the Royals even be able to keep a whole team of solid players who matured at the same time in order to reap the rewards of their patience?  

And if we view moves in terms of calculated risks (you can make the right move and get the wrong result and vice versa), we can interpret the Royals use of patience under the same light.  IE if you're patient for 25 years, eventually you'll hit a good class.  IF Davis' success was so unpredictable (we agree), then can we say it was somewhat unlikely that the Royals would end up with maybe 3 of the top 5-7 relievers in all of baseball in the same pen?  And if the success of the pen was not predictable, then perhaps the success of the team was unpredictable.  So was patience really the right strategy?  Would the team have been good enough without somewhat lucking into the best pen in the last 20 years of MLB (that I can remember)?  

I'm ok with being patient so long as it does not come at the expense of always always always trying to improve your overall talent level.  In general, I think trying to win is a better strategy than hoping to win.
 

I loved that trade between KC and TB at the time they made it and I still think it was a good idea to do it when they did.

[Major League Ready]

 

I loved that trade between KC and TB at the time they made it and I still think it was a good idea to do it when they did.

Are you saying that you would trade 5 years control of two very good players, the rookie of the year who would become an all-star and a 2/3 type SP if you knew the end result was a slightly above 500 team in 2013 and a one game shot at a playoff series in 2014?

[USAFChief]

 

Are you saying that you would trade 5 years control of two very good players, the rookie of the year who would become an all-star and a 2/3 type SP if you knew the end result was a slightly above 500 team in 2013 and a one game shot at a playoff series in 2014?

You left off the "..and a WS appearance in 2014 and a WS Championship in 2015."

 

You're also assuming a great deal with "two very good players"

 

So, yes, I agree with Jimmer.  At the time, felt the trade was a bold attempt at getting out of the ditch, and as we know...it worked.

 

The goal shouldn't be to have the rookie of the year.  The goal should be to win the WS.  I bet there isn't one single person in the KC organization, or many KC fans, who regret that trade.

[jimmer]

 

Are you saying that you would trade 5 years control of two very good players, the rookie of the year who would become an all-star and a 2/3 type SP if you knew the end result was a slightly above 500 team in 2013 and a one game shot at a playoff series in 2014?

I'm saying that it was the right move at the right time  I said it then and I still believe it was.

[CampQ]

So I just stopped grading student papers . . . and these are good students . . . and I am serious when I say that this article reminds me of a lot of them. I actually have been writing things like . . . "This provides some valid insights into x, y, or z, but then you didn't really take those insights anywhere, and then your paper just suddenly ended . . . "

 

Lots of things to agree about but then nothing . . .

"And the rest is rust and stardust:

[Major League Ready]

 

You left off the "..and a WS appearance in 2014 and a WS Championship in 2015."

 

You're also assuming a great deal with "two very good players"

 

So, yes, I agree with Jimmer.  At the time, felt the trade was a bold attempt at getting out of the ditch, and as we know...it worked.

 

The goal shouldn't be to have the rookie of the year.  The goal should be to win the WS.  I bet there isn't one single person in the KC organization, or many KC fans, who regret that trade.

1. Shields was gone when they won in 15.  Davis certainly was not the difference in them winning it all in 2015.  The fact they won the WS after Shields left provides rather compelling evidence they just were not ready in 2014 and they certainly were not ready in 2013.

 

2. Of course, the fans would not take it back because it worked out.  If you gave your child a check for $100Kst for irresponsible thing you have ever heard.  Then, if the child said, by the way, I won $100M and I have a check here for you for $10M so you can retire, you probably would not regret the decision.  The facts that it worked out does not necessarily mean it was a good decision and it certainly does not mean it was the best possible decision.

 

3. No matter how you slice it or dice it, the result of the trade was a mediocre team in 2013. That alone suggests they could have done better had they waited another year or two to make a move.  There is also no getting past the result of the trade was a one game wildcard playoff game.  In other words, the equivalent to when the Twins went to game 163. 

 

4. Trading away 5 years of two very good players for a coin flip is not a good result.  Of the hundreds of people I have met over my career with P&L responsibility for organization this size and bigger, I cant imagine any of them saying they would make that trade knowing the result was a coin flip.

 

5. I think they should have kept Odorizzi and traded Myers which I said at the time.  Odorizzi was not far behind Shields by 2014.  Shields ranked 12 on Fan graphs and Odorizzi was 27th.  Shields  WAR was 3.2 and Odorizzi was at 2.0.  By 2015 Odorizzi was ranked 12th.  He was not Shields in his prime but neither was Shields when he was in KC.  So in 2015 they could have still had a rough equivalent to Shields for 4 more years during the period of time when all of their core was in their prime.  If Shields was important to contention then, sure Odorizzi would have been important to their contention, just longer and when they were actually in their prime window.

 

6. We have not even discussed what they might have gotten for Shields that would have aided their cause of the years their core was in their prime and perhaps even provided replacements for those players who are currently the core.  We can spin all kinds of scenarios but it is reasonable to assume they would have gotten a very good prospect package.  What if it hit like the package that included Escobar.  What if just got a really good 2B?  They would have been better for several years.  They also would not have need to trade for Zobrist.  The net of that would be they would have been stronger at 2B and added Manea for the next several years.  So, Had they kept Odorizzi and traded Shields with the modest assumption the only benefit was a good 2B, they would have added a number 2 SP in Odorizzi for six years, been better at 2B for 6 years, and whatever Manea turns out to be which looks something along the lines of Odorizzi.  That is a very substantial impact on a team for 6 years.  Do fans cheer it, sure.  That does not make it even remotely the best decision and anyone who says they would make that trade knowing the end result is a coin flip has extremely poor judgment, IMO.

[USAFChief]

"Shields was gone when they won in 2015."

 

So were Myers and Odirizzi.

 

Yet they still won a WS.

 

How about that. Disaster averted. Trading minor league talent didn't doom the franchise.

[TheLeviathan]

Part of what was supposed to make Myers valuable was where he played.  His current production (which took three years to get to by the way, which would be of no help to Kansas City) for a first baseman isn't nearly as special.  It's good, but not special.  

 

I would be on board for a Shields-type trade by this team next offseason.  This offseason should be about dealing Dozier and making sure most of our future plays the entire year next year.  That includes Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Vargas, Polanco, Rosario, Berrios, hopefully Gonsalves at some point, and a handful of the young flame throwing relievers.  

 

After we've let them take their lumps (and hopefully work through it), then invest in them taking the next step.