Shelby Miller

[d-mac]

Since the beginning of 2014:

 

Pitcher A: 75 GS, 445.1 Inn, 4.03 xFIP, 16.1 K%, 7.8 BB%, 106 ERA-, 99 FIP-

Pitcher B: 78 GS, 457.2 Inn, 4.40 xFIP, 17.9 K%, 9.3 BB%, 102 ERA-, 111FIP-

 

Which pitcher would you prefer?

 

Pitcher A is Gibson, B is Miller. Miller has a slightly better K rate, but worse walk rate, worse groundball rate, worse HR rate, and gets to pitch in the NL. Gibson has a 69.1% LOB over the same time frame and Miller has a LOB% of 73.2. Some of that may be defense related?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Can things really get that much worse?

Sure. You replace a mediocre pitcher with a horrible pitcher.

 

As we've seen this season, populating either 40% or 60% of your rotation with horrible pitchers leads to a lot of losses.

 

I have no interest in seeing what a rotation with 80% horrible pitchers looks like.

[DaveW]

 

 

Since the beginning of 2014:

 

Pitcher A: 75 GS, 445.1 Inn, 4.03 xFIP, 16.1 K%, 7.8 BB%, 106 ERA-, 99 FIP-

Pitcher B: 78 GS, 457.2 Inn, 4.40 xFIP, 17.9 K%, 9.3 BB%, 102 ERA-, 111FIP-

 

Which pitcher would you prefer?

 

Pitcher A is Gibson, B is Miller. Miller has a slightly better K rate, but worse walk rate, worse groundball rate, worse HR rate, and gets to pitch in the NL. Gibson has a 69.1% LOB over the same time frame and Miller has a LOB% of 73.2. Some of that may be defense related?

Very convenient that you leave Miller and his good 2013 season out of this comparison, and Gibson and his terrible 2013 season out of it. LOL

 

If you want to take away a players bad year, then at least take Miller's out as well. If not, come on.

[d-mac]

 

You just proved an excellent point, Fangraphs has him at .5, Baseball reference had him at 1.6

 

Maybe using (one) instance of WAR for a player (especially a pitcher) on it's on is a terrible use of the stat?

 

 

Fangraphs and BR use different things for their pitcher WAR.  For example, Fangraphs heavily favors FIP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

 

Which is why I hate using WAR for pitchers. Use ERA- or FIP- instead. 

[DaveW]

 

 

Sure. You replace a mediocre pitcher with a horrible pitcher.

 

As we've seen this season, populating either 40% or 60% of your rotation with horrible pitchers leads to a lot of losses.

 

I have no interest in seeing what a rotation with 80% horrible pitchers looks like.

If you want to assume that Miller is suddenly a horrible pitcher, than go ahead and do that. I think most people would agree that one half of a bad season on a terrible ball team (surrounded by 3 good years) (a player who is only 25) isn't suddenly a "horrible pitcher" or likely to stay as one.

 

[jimmer]

 

Which is why I hate using WAR for pitchers. Use ERA- or FIP- instead. 

I'm not sure I understand that line of thinking, but okay.

[d-mac]

 

I hear ya, but I dunno, I think you are letting Gibson way too far off the hook on this one.

 

A lot of the pitch selection/strategy is coming from him FWIW, he has been around long enough when he can pick his own pitches or shake off whatever he doesn't want to throw.

 

You could make the same argument for Miller. He has 25 more major league starts than Gibson, plus an extra half season of experience. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If you want to assume that Miller is suddenly a horrible pitcher, than go ahead and do that. I think most people would agree that one half of a bad season on a terrible ball team (surrounded by 3 good years) (a player who is only 25) isn't suddenly a "horrible pitcher" or likely to stay as one.

I'm not assuming he'll stay horrible.

 

But there are legitimate concerns about a 25 year old pitcher who lost a mph from his fastball and is getting shelled in the National League.

 

Like I said, I'd take a flyer on him but not for Gibson and likely not for any pitcher above A ball.

 

Offer Palka back to Arizona in return. See if their bat**** crazy GM takes it.

[Everyday Eddy]

Just the ages of Gibson and Miller alone would be enough for me to say do it.    Gibson will be 31 the entire 2019 season when we are going to be just starting to compete while Miller will be 27.    This is a really good buy low situation and fits our timeline

[DaveW]

 

You could make the same argument for Miller. He has 25 more major league starts than Gibson, plus an extra half season of experience. 

Except that Miller has had some pretty damn good seasons! While being 3 years younger!

[DaveW]

 

 

Like I said, I'd take a flyer on him but  not for any pitcher above A ball.

 

 

Yikes, I think you are over-rating this teams system (and ability to develop/draft/etc) good pitchers by a huge margin.

[d-mac]

 

Very convenient that you leave Miller and his good 2013 season out of this comparison, and Gibson and his terrible 2013 season out of it. LOL

 

If you want to take away a players bad year, then at least take Miller's out as well. If not, come on.

 

I left it out because Gibson had all of 51 innings. LOL LOLOLOLOL

[d-mac]

 

I'm not sure I understand that line of thinking, but okay.

 

It leads people into unnecessary arguments when they don't specify bWAR or fWAR for pitchers, which can be very significantly different.  

[DaveW]

I have never understood why some people love WAR for pitchers so much.
Pitchers pitch, it's not like non pitchers where WAR brings in fielding, running, arm etc as well.

 

You can pretty much tell how well a pitcher is doing by looking at ALL of the following ERA (ERA+) FIP, xFIP, IP, k/9, BB/9, HR/9 BABIP

[Major League Ready]

 

Looks like Miller served a 15 day DL stint last month for a "lingering" finger injury. Not sure how much that affected his season, or why that would be enough to bail on the guy 8 months after selling the farm to get him. Something doesn't quite smell right.

But, definitely worth a call.

That's what I was thinking.  They gave up the #1 pick for him and now want to deal him 2/3 of the way through the first season with him.  Something smells.  Absolutely no way I trade Gibson for Miller.  We have a couple other guys that need to be upgrade before Gibson.  Now, if they would do it for ABW, great!

[DaveW]

 

 

I left it out because Gibson had all of 51 innings. LOL LOLOLOLOL

Shelby Miller has 69 innings this year, yet suddenly you want to include those bad innings (but not Gibsons bad innings)

[d-mac]

 

Except that Miller has had some pretty damn good seasons! While being 3 years younger!

 

Miller has one- one season which he had a sub 4.00 xFIP. Gibson has two. And don't go quoting ERA. We are talking about a potential trade here. We need to make some kind of projection about how these pitchers are going to perform going forward. Stats like xFIP, SIERA, etc, are about the best predictive pitching stats publicly available since they are measurements of how a pitcher actually pitched based on what a pitcher can control, not what happened which includes variables a pitcher cannot control. 

[d-mac]

 

I have never understood why some people love WAR for pitchers so much.
Pitchers pitch, it's not like non pitchers where WAR brings in fielding, running, arm etc as well.

 

You can pretty much tell how well a pitcher is doing by looking at ALL of the following ERA (ERA+) FIP, xFIP, IP, k/9, BB/9, HR/9 BABIP

 

Agreed. Differences for bWAR and fWAR are much smaller for position players since offensive WAR, and positional adjustments are essentially the same. 

[DaveW]

 

Miller has one- one season which he had a sub 4.00 xFIP. Gibson has two. And don't go quoting ERA. We are talking about a potential trade here. We need to make some kind of projection about how these pitchers are going to perform going forward. Stats like xFIP, SIERA, etc, are about the best predictive pitching stats publicly available since they are measurements of how a pitcher actually pitched based on what a pitcher can control, not what happened which

 

includes variables a pitcher cannot control. 

 

I am very aware on how FIP, xFIp etc work.

 

FIP, xFIP just like ERA aren't perfect stats, the fact is he managed to outperform his xFIP and FIP almost every year (by significant margins) either he was the luckiest pitcher in the league, had the best defenses in the league or the truth lies somewhere between ERA and FIP.

 

And like I mentioned, he is only 25, is a couple seasons removed from a top ten prospect and has had two seasons with above 3.4 WAR (bRef) the upside certainly remains.

[d-mac]

 

Shelby Miller has 69 innings this year, yet suddenly you want to include those bad innings (but not Gibsons bad innings)

 

And Gibson has 71.1. You can't b*** about someone cherry picking stats and then do the same. I decided on the start of 2014 since both pitchers have been in the majors, starting full time since the start of that season and made a similar number of starts over that time period. Gibson didn't make his ML debut until the second half of 2013 as he was recovering from TJ surgery, so it seemed like a natural break to do a head to head comparison. I could have included Miller's 2013 and 13.2 innings of relief in 2012, but since Gibson was toiling away in the minors, that seemed ridiculous to me. Plus, 2.5 seasons is a large sample size and recency has to weigh heavier when making forward looking projections- neither Gibson or Miller are the same pitchers they were in 2013. 

[DaveW]

 

And Gibson has 71.1. You can't b*** about someone cherry picking stats and then do the same. I decided on the start of 2014 since both pitchers have been in the majors, starting full time since the start of that season and made a similar number of starts over that time period. Gibson didn't make his ML debut until the second half of 2013 as he was recovering from TJ surgery, so it seemed like a natural break to do a head to head comparison. I could have included Miller's 2013 and 13.2 innings of relief in 2012, but since Gibson was toiling away in the minors, that seemed ridiculous to me. Plus, 2.5 seasons is a large sample size and recency has to weigh heavier when making forward looking projections- neither Gibson or Miller are the same pitchers they were in 2013. 

I'm not cherry picking stats.
 I just found it odd that you didn't mention what was an effective 2013 season for Miller.

 

The fact is, even with FIP etc it's Miller that has had two seasons with better than average FIP, Gibson has had zero (but 3 seasons with literally exactly average FIP)

 

Thus the upside is better.

(and keep in mind, Miller is ONLY 25, Gibson didn't even pitch in the majors until he was 25)

 

[DaveW]

[Linus]

I understand the premise but wouldn't do the deal. The Twins need all the starters they can get so I'm hanging on to Gibson and trying to add pitching by trading Plouffe and Dozier.

[nicksaviking]

I guess I don't understand why either the Diamondbacks or the Twins would be interested in swapping mid-20s, RHP who are controllable until 2019 and the 2020.

 

Usually trades are made of more dis-similar assets.

 

I'm guessing this thread wouldn't have been nearly as heated if we weren't fruitlessly trying to compare a mid-rotation, 27-year-old, RHP, arbitration eligible through 2020 to a mid-rotation, 25-year-old, RHP, arbitration eligible through 2019.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I admit to being entertained when DaveW is this passionate....so good thread!

[DaveW]

 

 

I'm guessing this thread wouldn't have been nearly as heated if we weren't fruitlessly trying to compare a mid-rotation, 27-year-old, RHP, arbitration eligible through 2020 to a mid-rotation, 25-year-old, RHP, arbitration eligible through 2019.

First off: Gibson is 28, not 27. They are both born in October, so they are pretty much exactly 3 years difference age wise.

Additionally, Miller has had two full seasons so far with under a 3.07 ERA, that is better than mid rotation, that is a solid #2 for any team (if he can duplicate that moving forward that is, which is the big question)

[DaveW]

 

 

I understand the premise but wouldn't do the deal. The Twins need all the starters they can get so I'm hanging on to Gibson and trying to add pitching by trading Plouffe and Dozier.

Plouffe isn't going to net us anything of real value starting pitching wise IMO, of course miracles could happen? I just don't see it.

I wouldn't trade Dozier for Miller, if they are going to trade Dozier I would want quite a bit more in exchange. (I think Dozier has a ton of trade value IMO as a top 5 or 6 2nd baseman in the majors on a good contract)

[d-mac]

 

I am very aware on how FIP, xFIp etc work.

 

FIP, xFIP just like ERA aren't perfect stats, the fact is he managed to outperform his xFIP and FIP almost every year (by significant margins) either he was the luckiest pitcher in the league, had the best defenses in the league or the truth lies somewhere between ERA and FIP.

 

And like I mentioned, he is only 25, is a couple seasons removed from a top ten prospect and has had two seasons with above 3.4 WAR (bRef) the upside certainly remains.

 

At the same time you can't penalize Gibson for being unlucky. He has underperformed his peripherals by similarly wide margin. I'm sorry Dave, but you are just not being objective here. We agree on a lot of things, just not this. Both Gibson and Miller have quite similar peripherals over the last few seasons and yes, Miller is younger and was a former top prospect, which is why I like him as a buy-low candidate. But, Gibson has pitched in the AL and is cheaper and has more team control left than Miller. It makes little sense to me to swap out a known quantity that is under team control for the next few seasons for an unknown quantity with less control, that has slight chance of being better. 

 

And we cannot discount the NL to AL transition. When was the last time the Twins were able to transition an "established" NL starter into our rotation? Nolasco? Nope. Pelfrey? Nope. Correia? Nope. Worley? Nope. Marquis? LOL nope. Livan Hernandez? Nope. Carlos Silva? Silva was a reliever for the Phillies, I wouldn't call him an established starter. He was basically Nick Blackburn, version 1.0- he was Nick Blackburn before it was cool, the hipster Blackburn. You have to go all the way back to Rick Reed in 2002 to see a NL pitcher come over and put up an ERA- of below 100.  

[DaveW]

Comparing Miller to Pelfrey, Correia, Worley, Marquis and Hernandez is completely irrelevant in this case, we knew all of those pitchers were hot garbage the minute the Twins got them (Worley was a bit of a wild card)

Nolasco appeared to be decent, but we know how that worked out, I personally put Nolasco's struggles on him and him alone.

Pretty sure none of those guys had two full seasons with below a 3.07 ERA as well.

[Thrylos]

 

And Nunez alone equals what for a return? 

 

Polanco as your starting SS for the rest of the season plus someone with a pulse.

 

I'd take that.