Mr. Consistency

[GMinTraining]

Despite never earning a  "mid season" promotion, ABW might be the most consistent prospect in the system [good and bad].  Over his 5 year minor league career, ABW has registered consistent numbers year to year.  To make more sense of what I'm saying - Based on a 162 game average Walker's numbers would have looked like this:

 

HOME RUNS

Elizabethton - 40

Cedar Rapids - 34

For Myers - 31

Chattanooga - 38

AZ Fall League - 38

Rochester - 35

 

RBI

Elizabethton - 129
Cedar Rapids - 138
For Myers - 116
Chattanooga - 129
AZ Fall League - 161
Rochester - 90

 

RUNS SCORED

Elizabethton - 125
Cedar Rapids - 105
For Myers - 96
Chattanooga - 91
AZ Fall League - 92
Rochester - 83

 

DOUBLES

Elizabethton - 20
Cedar Rapids - 39
For Myers - 23
Chattanooga - 38
AZ Fall League - 23
Rochester - 31

 

TRIPLES

Elizabethton - 11
Cedar Rapids - 9
For Myers - 1
Chattanooga - 4
AZ Fall League - 7
Rochester - 4

 

EXTRA BASE HITS
Elizabethton - 71
Cedar Rapids - 82
For Myers - 56
Chattanooga - 79
AZ Fall League - 69
Rochester - 70

 

STRIKE OUTS
Elizabethton - 217
Cedar Rapids - 145
For Myers - 192
Chattanooga - 237
AZ Fall League - 269
Rochester - 253

 

BASE on BALLS
Elizabethton - 54
Cedar Rapids - 39
For Myers - 54
Chattanooga - 62
AZ Fall League - 61
Rochester - 64

 

When I think of ABW,  I think of the Power and the Strike Outs.  His power numbers over the years have been very consistent, while his strike outs have spiked yearly.  That being said, he has been able to consistently tap into his power skill set.  It has been said every year that he won't be able to utilize his power at his respective next levels, yet he has done so consistently since being drafted.  Although skeptics have good reason to doubt his future at the MLB level, I challenge them to ask themselves "Would these yearly averages be acceptable if ABW actually played on the MLB club?"  or "Would the strike outs be too much to deal with?"  

 

Understand that all these averages have been accomplished having never repeated a level before.   Do these numbers have a future in Minnesota or are we convinced that only the bad numbers will be repeatable (SO)?  I personally love the extra base hits and RBI numbers.  FWIW -  his BB totals would be among the best on the Twins as well.

 

Rochester Red Wings ‏@RocRedWings  4h4 hours ago
VIDEO: This little 423 ft laser by ABW is his T-IL leading 19th!

BTW, @walkoff28 hitting .385 in July!

6-1 #Wings

8 retweets 6 likes
Reply   Retweet  8  Like 6  More

 

 

 

 

435 foot opposite field Home Run

 

 

 

[Old Twins Cap]

The concern is that as MLB pitching/scouting focuses on his weaknesses--a tad more intensely than in the Minors-- and the skills of MLB pitchers produce more accuracy, ABW's flaws become magnified and his results decline.

 

That's the concern. 

 

But, hopefully, ABW forces the issue and we see if that thesis is correct.  Or not.

[Platoon]

How long before he is eligible for the rule 5? My understanding is he is a below average OF? We have a crowded OF already. But looking at things as a whole, it's still kind of a shame he didn't get a chance at the DH slot. I have no idea if he would have succeeded, but he was yet another victim of the Park decision.

[Major League Ready]

He sure has been hot of late.  His average is somewhere around 375 the last month.  It would be really interesting to know if they have done something with his swing mechanics.  Has he gotten better at identifying pitches or is he simply on a hot streak.

 

Palka's average at AAA is over 300 now and he is not a defensive liability.  I think he is a better bet although both of their strike out rates make them suspect at the ML level. Walker might just end being traded.   Hopefully, his play of late is the result of something that is sustainable and he ends up being a valuable part of the future or a valuable trade asset.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How long before he is eligible for the rule 5? My understanding is he is a below average OF? We have a crowded OF already. But looking at things as a whole, it's still kind of a shame he didn't get a chance at the DH slot. I have no idea if he would have succeeded, but he was yet another victim of the Park decision.

 

He was eligible last season and got put on the 40 man.

 

And no, he wasn't a victim of the Park decision.  He was going to be in AAA regardless.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Walker vs. Palka is interesting as both have undeniable power (with Walker being a bit better there) but some plate coverage/discipline issues (with Palka being better there).  Not quite certain there is room on the roster for both, and both will struggle for playing time as long as Kepler and Rosario are healthy and continue to produce.  One of those two could supplant Grossman at some point or potentially DH once Joe Mauer is gone, though neither have the speed to play CF which makes them less than ideal 4th OF candidates. 

 

I tend to agree that Walker in particular gets traded as he's only got 2 options left, one of which will most assuredly be used come 2017, because like it or not, he hasn't been that good this year. Yeah, he hits home runs, but if you look at the rest of his peripherals, they aren't exactly sexy.  You do have a point about repeating a level, hopefully, he figures things out a bit during his second go around in AAA, but the issue right now is BB and Ks.  He's been a bit better there this year, so perhaps he is figuring it out.  If he does, he's a beast.

[Major League Ready]

 

Walker vs. Palka is interesting as both have undeniable power (with Walker being a bit better there) but some plate coverage/discipline issues (with Palka being better there).  Not quite certain there is room on the roster for both, and both will struggle for playing time as long as Kepler and Rosario are healthy and continue to produce.  One of those two could supplant Grossman at some point or potentially DH once Joe Mauer is gone, though neither have the speed to play CF which makes them less than ideal 4th OF candidates. 

 

I tend to agree that Walker in particular gets traded as he's only got 2 options left, one of which will most assuredly be used come 2017, because like it or not, he hasn't been that good this year. Yeah, he hits home runs, but if you look at the rest of his peripherals, they aren't exactly sexy.  You do have a point about repeating a level, hopefully, he figures things out a bit during his second go around in AAA, but the issue right now is BB and Ks.  He's been a bit better there this year, so perhaps he is figuring it out.  If he does, he's a beast.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.  You make a good point about neither being capable of playing CF but they might be able to get away with this given Rosario and Kepler can both b/u CF although neither is great defensively in CF.  They might also just keep Santana around simply because he can bu SS and CF as well as pinch run.

 

I would just love to see one of them surprise us and get past their contact issues.  That would be a nice boost to this team.  Let's hope at this time next year we are saying remember when Walker or Palka had trouble making contact and now they are tearing it up.  I man can dream, right?

[HitInAPinch]

ABW's 2016 season:  137k's in 312 AB's.  K rate is 44%

With his seasonal strikeouts increasing as he moves up the MiLB ladder, I don't see anyway of sugarcoating it. 

[Taildragger8791]

His strikeout rate in July has dropped to around 28% while BB rate and production has held steady or increased. Could be a hot hitting streak, but if we're lucky he may be actually starting to recognize his pitches better. Big step if that's the case.

[gunnarthor]

As I understand it, the Twins have two more years where they could keep him in AAA if they wanted so they don't have to make a decision anytime soon.  I expect he'll be a Sept call up and then get shuffled between the majors and minors the next two years.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.  You make a good point about neither being capable of playing CF but they might be able to get away with this given Rosario and Kepler can both b/u CF although neither is great defensively in CF.  They might also just keep Santana around simply because he can bu SS and CF as well as pinch run.

 

I would just love to see one of them surprise us and get past their contact issues.  That would be a nice boost to this team.  Let's hope at this time next year we are saying remember when Walker or Palka had trouble making contact and now they are tearing it up.  I man can dream, right?

 

Forgot about Rosario in CF.  He's probably not GG level defense there like Buxton, but you can rotate him in to give Buxton the night off.  Kepler, from what I understand is below average in CF but above in the corners.  I'd probably leave Kepler out of the picture, but at that point, you could add one of Walker/Palka if the manager was willing to get a bit creative with platooning. 

 

If Walker figures out the K thing, I'd lean towards having him DH, but then Sano will be at 3rd for a while in that scenario. 

 

I do think one of them can figure it out.  I'd put money on Palka given that his AA/AAA numbers show that he's already much better in that category.  Yeah, he swings and misses, but at 30% K rate, it's on the high end of acceptable for guys with elite power.  If he can get that into the low to mid 20s consistently while continuing to hit 30+ a year, well that's good, especially since he's not afraid to draw a walk.

 

As for Santana, he has a bad rap here, and I understand that.  Given his age, I'd give him opportunities to compete.  I have no problems keeping him as a super utility type guy, especially given what he did in 2014.  He has some maturing to do, but if he can capture some of that, he's a pretty valuable utility guy or he can be traded to a desperate team at the deadline.  If he cannot, well then dump him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

ABW's 2016 season: 137k's in 312 AB's. K rate is 44%

With his seasonal strikeouts increasing as he moves up the MiLB ladder, I don't see anyway of sugarcoating it.

K rate is actually calculated by dividing by plate appearances, not at bats. So he is at 39%, which is still a career high.

[DocBauer]

Walker is intriguing, no question about it. If it were feasible for him to perform at the ML level as he has done at the milb level, lower BA and high SO totals, his power and production would still be excellent in the lower third of the lineup as a DH. But money is on Palka as the better prospect. He's more legit defensively, may be able to play 1B as well, and simply makes better contact.

 

Wow, can you imagine if Palka gets it and Vargas keeps getting chances and proves he belongs? 1B/DH looks really interesting.

[Thrylos]

 

Walker vs. Palka is interesting as both have undeniable power (with Walker being a bit better there) but some plate coverage/discipline issues (with Palka being better there).  Not quite certain there is room on the roster for both, and both will struggle for playing time as long as Kepler and Rosario are healthy and continue to produce.  One of those two could supplant Grossman at some point or potentially DH once Joe Mauer is gone, though neither have the speed to play CF which makes them less than ideal 4th OF candidates. 

 

I tend to agree that Walker in particular gets traded as he's only got 2 options left, one of which will most assuredly be used come 2017, because like it or not, he hasn't been that good this year. Yeah, he hits home runs, but if you look at the rest of his peripherals, they aren't exactly sexy.  You do have a point about repeating a level, hopefully, he figures things out a bit during his second go around in AAA, but the issue right now is BB and Ks.  He's been a bit better there this year, so perhaps he is figuring it out.  If he does, he's a beast.

 

I do not disagree with the last point.

 

However, Palka has more power than Walker (check their SLG% and isoP - and even their HR totals)

Palka is pretty unique in the organization, since Arcia left.  He is the only pure power LHB at high levels.  FWIW, Palka's numbers in AA and SSS AAA are better than Kepler's and his defense is at least as good at both OF and 1B.    Rosario is hitting .244/.259/.402.  Hardly starting OF numbers.

 

Palka is hitting .277/.353/.559 this season (AAA + AA) after he hit .280/.352/.532 last season.  Other than the increase in power, which was anticipated, he has been pretty darn consistent at any level.  He should be in MN in September for sure.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Although skeptics have good reason to doubt his future at the MLB level, I challenge them to ask themselves "Would these yearly averages be acceptable if ABW actually played on the MLB club?"  or "Would the strike outs be too much to deal with?"  

Why is it challenging to ask that of skeptics?  If he had the same batting line, he'd probably have a similar ~123 wRC+ (his approximate career minor league wRC+) and of course that would be "acceptable" in MLB.

 

No one cares about the strikeouts by themselves -- it's just that the strikeouts suggest it will be a lot more difficult for Walker to effectively translate that batting line to MLB.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A more meaningful "challenge" question, to Walker supporters: given that his K% has risen at every level:

 

A: 20.8%

A+: 28.2%

AA: 34.8%

AAA: 38.8%

 

What do you think his K rate will be in MLB?  And what kind of batting line do you think that K rate will be able to sustain?

[HitInAPinch]

 

K rate is actually calculated by dividing by plate appearances, not at bats. So he is at 39%, which is still a career high.

Thanks for that.  Makes sense.  Still a little far away from Jim Thome  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I do not disagree with the last point.

 

However, Palka has more power than Walker (check their SLG% and isoP - and even their HR totals)

Palka is pretty unique in the organization, since Arcia left.  He is the only pure power LHB at high levels.  FWIW, Palka's numbers in AA and SSS AAA are better than Kepler's and his defense is at least as good at both OF and 1B.    Rosario is hitting .244/.259/.402.  Hardly starting OF numbers.

 

Palka is hitting .277/.353/.559 this season (AAA + AA) after he hit .280/.352/.532 last season.  Other than the increase in power, which was anticipated, he has been pretty darn consistent at any level.  He should be in MN in September for sure.

 

Won't necessarily disagree, but I think Rosario (who destroyed AAA again) is going to get that first crack, and he does play better defense and has the whole out of options thing working at some point as well. If Palka is the real deal, then yes, I probably trade Rosario, though I think we've long since learned that good defense in the OF makes a big difference.  That slash line is dead sexy though.  The question is whether or not he can eventually replicate it in the majors given that many of the outs are of the K variety.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

A more meaningful "challenge" question, to Walker supporters: given that his K% has risen at every level:

 

A: 20.8%

A+: 28.2%

AA: 34.8%

AAA: 38.8%

 

What do you think his K rate will be in MLB?  And what kind of batting line do you think that K rate will be able to sustain?

 

Yeah, this.  It has to drop, and it needs to be significant.  It will be interesting in seeing how it does when he repeats AAA.  Right now, I think he'd approach 50% K rate in MLB.  Not good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No batter has ever qualified for the MLB batting title (502 PA) with a K rate higher than 36.2%.  Walker is currently at 38.8% in AAA.  Even getting a full season of play in MLB might be a historic achievement for Walker, never mind his performance.

 

Even that 36.2% K rate was achieved by a player with a significantly higher walk rate (Chris Carter, at 12% in 2013) than Walker has ever posted (career high 9.9% this year, 7.9% for his minor league career).

 

You have to remove the "qualified" PA threshold to get anybody with both BB and K rates comparable to Walker in MLB history; with only a 200 PA threshold, BB% less than 10, and K% greater than or equal to 34 (Walker was at 34.8% in AA last year), 21 player seasons match.  Only 2 of the seasons were above average offensively, and not by much -- Juan Francisco in 2014, and Wily Mo Pena in 2005.  5 of the player seasons were for catchers.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=43375&players=0

[GMinTraining]

FanGraph article on short list for call ups

Prospects Already on the 40-Man Roster

by Paul Sporer - July 19, 2016

 

Adam Brett Walker | OF, Minnesota Twins

Walker isn’t exactly a major prospect because he has a flawed game, but he can absolutely crush the ball when he does get a piece of it. He has a career .487 SLG in the minors and .481 during his first tour of Triple-A. He only has a .242 AVG thanks in large part to a 40% strikeout rate. I shudder to think what a 40% strikeout rate at Triple-A might do in the majors, but he could be a poor man’s Chris Carter out of the gate. Jorge Polanco has already gotten brief tastes of the majors, including May of this year, so he’s probably in line ahead of Walker, but I wanted to point out Walker’s ridiculous power.

 

 

 

Also wanted to say that Walker moves well in the outfield defensively (tracking down balls).  His throwing was the issue and has improved quite a bit this season.  I don't think people should concede that Palka is better because he plays first base too.  Walker played first base in college and was drafted having played primarily first base and moved to outfield because of his athleticism in the pro's.  He's a little more versatile than given credit for.

 

ABW playing 1B in college (where he was a 2nd team All American)

 

------------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL_hYvi0BJQrSZqbsG3NRtSRWjgtVm7ONo

Adam Brett Walker making defensive plays this year in Rochester.  Point of video is to show how smoothly he roams the OF.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think anyone concedes Palka is better b/c he plays 1B.  They do so b/c Palka strikes out less, walks more, has an extra option as he's not on the 40 man yet, and makes more contact (and note Palka still strikes out too much, which is why he too is a flawed prospect).

[Shaitan]

His # of triples each year has been inconsistent 

 

The K rate is beyond a concern at this point. 

But he's got time to figure it out.

[GMinTraining]

 

His # of triples each year has been inconsistent 

 

The K rate is beyond a concern at this point. 

 

But he's got time to figure it out.

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