Trade Markets: Catchers

[jorgenswest]

MLBTR analyzes the catcher trade market.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/catcher-trade-market-mlb.html

 

It seems like a large supply of catchers that will exceed the demand. How would other teams view Suzuki in the group? Is Suzuki someone they would particularly target over the other options? Do they see him as a cheap fall back if their other options don't work out?

 

Is there a catcher the Twins should target either now or in the winter?

[Vanimal46]

It's safe to say Lucroy is the cream of the crop, right? I imagine there's going to be a big demand for his services now that he's shown he can still play C after the concussions and other injuries last season. 

I could see the demand for Suzuki growing once Lucroy's traded or removed from the trade block.

Never thought I'd read Herrmann's name under the title "Long-Term Options" in my lifetime. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's safe to say Lucroy is the cream of the crop, right? I imagine there's going to be a big demand for his services now that he's shown he can still play C after the concussions and other injuries last season. 

I could see the demand for Suzuki growing once Lucroy's traded or removed from the trade block.

Never thought I'd read Herrmann's name under the title "Long-Term Options" in my lifetime. 

Given how well Kurt has played for the past six weeks, I could easily see a team pursuing him as a "Poor Man's Lucroy".

 

The return isn't going to be great but it won't be nothing, either.

[jimmer]

Poor Man's Lucroy, huh?  I don't know how many GMs will see that, but I hope there's at least one and he calls Ryan before Ryan offers Suzuki a 3 year extension.

[Willihammer]

What would be a fair price for McCann?

[Dantes929]

 

Poor Man's Lucroy, huh?  I don't know how many GMs will see that, but I hope there's at least one and he calls Ryan before Ryan offers Suzuki a 3 year extension.

I am with you here completely on the extension but how would you feel about one more year.     After the slow start he is definitely in the top 10 catchers offensively.    If not Lecroy or Ramos then who?    

[jorgenswest]

If the return is little, why trade Suzuki? Do the Twins have a 2017 solution at catcher?

 

Murphy - maybe. His BABIP of .091 and even the .233 in AAA is well below his previous levels. While with the Twins, his swinging strike rate and out of zone rates were better than his career norms. He wasn't hitting line drives as he had previously. He also wasn't pulling the ball near as often. That may indicate a change in approach but the sample is small. I don't see why he can't hit at an adequate level for the catcher position. If his hitting is just adequate, his defense needs to be better. Is it? Regular play the last two months with the Twins might help answer that question.

 

Garver - he is riding the other end of the BABIP range. His .332 is probably not something he would maintain. He also has work to do defensively. He will benefit from a full year at AAA next year. The Twins should not plan on Garver as a starter next year. He could be a solution for 2018.

 

Turner - if his defense is as real as advertised, he might be able to start his Drew Butera career line in the majors next year. If the hope is that his bat will develop into that of a starter, he needs the full year at AAA.

 

Centeno - will either his offense or defense be at least adequate? I am not certain. He came with a good defensive reputation, but I am not sure that defense has shown up. He seems to have trouble blocking balls and framing pitches. His arms seems OK, but the results aren't there.

 

The Twins might see the need to retain Suzuki for another year paired with Murphy. The value in trading him for little return is that it might force the Twins to seek a different solution.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Poor Man's Lucroy, huh?  I don't know how many GMs will see that, but I hope there's at least one and he calls Ryan before Ryan offers Suzuki a 3 year extension.

Suzuki isn't comparable to Lucroy but he has a few things going for him:

 

1. He's been red hot for seven weeks or so, sporting a 1.004 OPS since May 31st. That normally wouldn't bump his trade value at all (and it still won't move it much) except for the next point...

 

2. Unlike Lucroy, Suzuki is on an expiring deal. At the deadline, many teams aren't interested in 2017, they only care about the last two months of the season. To some teams, Lucroy will either be too expensive or too much of a risk given his age and concussion issues.

 

So, "poor man's Lucroy". That doesn't mean the two players are comparable, it only means Lucroy is going to be too risky or too expensive for some teams, which may make Suzuki more appealing.

 

If you're a fringe contender at the deadline, what's more appealing? Suzuki for a good A ball starter with a bit of upside or Lucroy at the price of a top 100, probably top 50, prospect (assuming you have one to give)? I suspect for many teams, the answer may be Suzuki.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I am with you here completely on the extension but how would you feel about one more year.     After the slow start he is definitely in the top 10 catchers offensively.    If not Lecroy or Ramos then who?    

Give Murphy two months of playing time and then reevaluate. There's no need to make a decision today.

[Thrylos]

 

If the return is little, why trade Suzuki? Do the Twins have a 2017 solution at catcher?

 

The Twins need to find that out.  And they need Murphy to play most days for a while in a 103(*) loss team to assess.  And they need Garver in AAA for the same reason.  But for both to happen, Suzuki needs to go.  The problem with keeping Suzuki is the opportunity cost.  Plus a return, as little as it might be, is better than nothing, which is what the Twins will get after the end of the season when he will be a free agent.  Having Suzuki in the second half in a 103 (*) loss team, instead of evaluating potential future catchers makes zero sense... 

 

(*) projected based on their current winning percentage 

 

[Vanimal46]

There's also nothing stopping the Twins from resigning Suzuki as a FA this off-season.... The best thing for this organization is what others have mentioned. Trade Suzuki now, collect data on Murphy at the MLB level - Garver and Turner in AAA - and evaluate where we're at in November. 

[TwinsTerritory]

In my view, a smart front office would do the following:

1. Trade Suzuki to the highest bidder (be aggressive now, instead of waiting 3 weeks)

2. Let Murphy play for two months

3. Reevaluate in the off-season and if necessary resign Suzuki or someone similar to a 1 year deal.

[TwinsTerritory]

 

Given how well Kurt has played for the past six weeks, I could easily see a team pursuing him as a "Poor Man's Lucroy".

 

The return isn't going to be great but it won't be nothing, either.

 

After Lucroy, I see Vogt, Norris and Suzuki as being the next best options (unless someone has money to burn on McCann).

[tobi0040]

What would be a fair price for McCann?

If the Yankees really did want to get Sanchez in there, a trade for McCann would be appealing. He has 2/34 on his deal and another at $15m if he catches more than 90 games in 2018. He is still one of the better hitting catchers in the league and it is a short-ish deal.

 

We have Plouffe (7m), Jepsen (5.5m), Milone (4.5m), Suzuki (6m) coming off the books and a huge hole at catcher. Why not?

[Lonestar]

There should be at least 4 playoff contenders in the market for a catcher.

 

OPS

.516  Cleveland

.599  NY Mets

.602  Toronto

.662  Boston

 

Suzuki might be the third best catcher (after Lucroy and Norris).

He's the cheapest of those three in terms of talent to acquire.

The Twins can eat his contract (not saying they will).

 

I think Lucroy is bound for Boston.

What in the other organizations would make you pull the trigger?

Is the Indians 8th rated prospect C Francisco Mejia enough?

If the Twins ate salary, would they throw in Eric Gonzales (#11) or Yu-Cheng Chan (#12)?

[wsnydes]

 

There's also nothing stopping the Twins from resigning Suzuki as a FA this off-season.... The best thing for this organization is what others have mentioned. Trade Suzuki now, collect data on Murphy at the MLB level - Garver and Turner in AAA - and evaluate where we're at in November. 

Key words...if I could attach a giant neon sign to this, I would.

[Vanimal46]

 

If the Yankees really did want to get Sanchez in there, a trade for McCann would be appealing. He has 2/34 on his deal and another at $15m if he catches more than 90 games in 2018. He is still one of the better hitting catchers in the league and it is a short-ish deal.

We have Plouffe (7m), Jepsen (5.5m), Milone (4.5m), Suzuki (6m) coming off the books and a huge hole at catcher. Why not?

I wouldn't be opposed to this either. McCann, for me at least, gives the illusion that he's older than he really is.. I suppose that's what happens when you're called up at 21 and start mashing right away. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Key words...if I could attach a giant neon sign to this, I would.

Correct. No need to rush to the altar and commit to Suzuki while the season is going on. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Given how well Kurt has played for the past six weeks, I could easily see a team pursuing him as a "Poor Man's Lucroy".

 

The return isn't going to be great but it won't be nothing, either.

Wouldn't Derek Norris be a poor man's Lucroy?  He's been hot lately too -- .821 OPS, 11 HR in last 190 PA, according to the article.  (The article also says Norris is the most likely to be moved, because he is blocking Hedges.)

 

Suzuki would be a even poorer man's Lucroy, I guess.  (And I know poor refers to prospect cost, but interesting to note that Suzuki is actually paid more in annual salary than Lucroy as well as Norris right now.)

[Lonestar]

Suzuki in free agency means multiple years.  Pass

[wsnydes]

 

Suzuki in free agency means multiple years.  Pass

Not necessarily at his age.  Might cost a bit more for shorter terms.  Potential to be traded all over again.

 

I agree with your point though.  He wouldn't be high on my list either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the Yankees really did want to get Sanchez in there, a trade for McCann would be appealing. He has 2/34 on his deal and another at $15m if he catches more than 90 games in 2018. He is still one of the better hitting catchers in the league and it is a short-ish deal.

I can't imagine the Yankees would salary dump McCann at this point, though -- Sanchez is interesting, but he just isn't that good/close.  You would have to pay in prospects, in addition to that salary commitment.

 

We could possibly get Montero as a salary dump if the Cubs want his roster spot back...

[Thrylos]

 

In my view, a smart front office would do the following:

1. Trade Suzuki to the highest bidder (be aggressive now, instead of waiting 3 weeks)

2. Let Murphy play for two months

3. Reevaluate in the off-season and if necessary resign Suzuki or someone similar to a 1 year deal.

 

I agree with the first 2, but the worst thing that Ryan can do is to go after Suzuki as a free agent at 33 years old.  In 3 seasons with the Twins he put a .690 OPS, which is right at where his career OPS is, with stretches of brilliance (like right now with the axe handled bat) and with horrible stretches.

He has proven that he is part of the problem.

If the Twins have no catcher for 2017, I'd rather see them either go after Ramos (FA) as a potential longer term solution or even after Chris Herrmann in a trade as a potential stopgap and maybe even more.  These are the only former Twins that it might make sense to bring back as a catcher.

 

Bringing back Suzuki will be like bringing back Pelfrey 

[tobi0040]

I can't imagine the Yankees would salary dump McCann at this point, though -- Sanchez is interesting, but he just isn't that good/close.  You would have to pay in prospects, in addition to that salary commitment.

 

We could possibly get Montero as a salary dump if the Cubs want his roster spot back...

You are probably right. I would hope our GM would ask though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So, Suzuki's option is a "vesting option".

 

I assume that means if it doesn't vest, it's null and void, right?  It's not then a team option on his services?

 

Not that I'd necessarily want to renew him for another year at $6 mil, just curious.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Wouldn't Derek Norris be a poor man's Lucroy?  He's been hot lately too -- .821 OPS, 11 HR in last 190 PA, according to the article.  (The article also says Norris is the most likely to be moved, because he is blocking Hedges.)

 

Suzuki would be a even poorer man's Lucroy, I guess.  (And I know poor refers to prospect cost, but interesting to note that Suzuki is actually paid more in annual salary than Lucroy as well as Norris right now.)

Ah, yes. I forgot about Norris. Good point.

[tobi0040]

So, Suzuki's option is a "vesting option".

 

I assume that means if it doesn't vest, it's null and void, right?  It's not then a team option on his services?

 

Not that I'd necessarily want to renew him for another year at $6 mil, just curious.

This is all BREF states. Sportrac says the same thing.

 

"$6M Vesting Option option guaranteed with 485 plate appearances in 2016".

 

I will say Nick or Seth said the Twins can option it if they want. I have been unable to find anything suggesting they have that right. It would seem rather odd to me that we have not heard any buzz at all about whether the Twins will exercise that option or not (if we had the ability to).

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukku01.shtml#contracts

[Mike Sixel]

 

I can't imagine the Yankees would salary dump McCann at this point, though -- Sanchez is interesting, but he just isn't that good/close.  You would have to pay in prospects, in addition to that salary commitment.

 

We could possibly get Montero as a salary dump if the Cubs want his roster spot back...

 

KLAW has Sanchez at number 36 of all prospects in baseball.....if he's not that good, well, there are not many prospects in baseball that are, then. 

[TwinsTerritory]

I did some of this in another post, but here are my potential trades for Kurt.  I also included a dream deal at the end for those of us that are wishful thinkers!

 

*Suzuki to the Rangers for infielder Josh Morgan.

The 2014 3rd round pick is 20 years old and the Ranger's #9 ranked prospect.  Morgan can play 2B/3B and maybe even SS.  Could be a potential 3B when Sano makes the move to 1B full time in a couple years.  Rangers have also made some attempts at turning him into a catcher which is intriguing for the Twins.

 

*Suzuki to the Astros for RHP Albert Abreu

Abreu is a high-upside gamble.  He has the potential to be a 1-2 starter, but he also has some control issues.  20 years old and a few years from the majors.

 

*Suzuki to the Indians for C Fransisco Mejia

Mejia is the Indians #8 ranked prospect and is probably 2 years away.  Switch hitter with a strong arm and adequate defense.  Having a good year at high-A, so the Indians may not be willing to give him up for a rental

 

*Suzuki, Santana, and $15M to the Red Sox for RHP Michael Kopech and 3B Michael Chavis

Kopech is the Red Sox #5 prospect and a VERY hard throwing righty that could be a #1-2 starter as soon as 2018.  Chavis is the Red Sox #10 prospect and a 2014 1st round pick.  A solid bat that is still working to learn 3B.  He may be ready to play 3B when Sano makes the inevitable transition to 1B/DH in a couple years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

KLAW has Sanchez at number 36 of all prospects in baseball.....if he's not that good, well, there are not many prospects in baseball that are, then. 

I mean good, as an MLB catcher, right now, enough to dump McCann.  Sanchez has 6 MLB at bats, and while his ranking is solid, his track record isn't overwhelming.  (How's his defense?)

 

I probably should have just said "not close", I suppose.  I can't see the Yankees clearing the deck for him in the next few weeks, or probably not even this offseason.