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I Like Kepler

FunnyPenguin

By FunnyPenguin
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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stringer bell Cooperstown

stringer bell

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Posted
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He needs work on angles off the wall. The misplay on the corner bounce in Texas late in the game on Friday 7/8 turned a double into a triple and a following fly ball into a go ahead sac fly, and that was the game.

While that is true, Kepler made a real nice play earlier in the game to hold Odour to a single on a ball towards the corner. He has the speed and instincts to be a fine outfielder.

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scottz First Round Pick

scottz

Verified Member
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The right field hanging porch should be Das Überhang.

 

And if his nickname doesn't eventually become Mr. Oktober, we've all done something wrong.

Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Yeah that overhang.

Don't get me wrong I love that Kepler's off to a strong start but those are some cheap home runs. 2009 Mauer anyone?

Craig Arko Minnesota Twins

Craig Arko

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Yeah that overhang.

Don't get me wrong I love that Kepler's off to a strong start but those are some cheap home runs. 2009 Mauer anyone?

Are they moving to a new park again next year? I'm not paying for it.

amjgt FCL Twins

amjgt

Verified Member
Posted
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Depends on if you consider lucky to be "wow that just barely cleared the wall", or "there's only a couple ballparks that would've been a HR in."

 

Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
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A ball hit into Kepler's Observatory, it turns out, would be a HR in lots of ballparks.

I'm just trying to get a handle on his true power. I'm not implying his HRs were cheap because of which park they were hit in or how many rows up they landed. Obviously if it clears the fence, even by a little, it counts as a HR.

 

Kepler is on a 30/HR year pace, do you think that's evident of his "true" HR power?

Craig Arko Minnesota Twins

Craig Arko

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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A ball hit into Kepler's Observatory, it turns out, would be a HR in lots of ballparks.

And an ellipse with the Earth at one focus.

Craig Arko Minnesota Twins

Craig Arko

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I'm just trying to get a handle on his true power. I'm not implying his HRs were cheap because of which park they were hit in or how many rows up they landed. Obviously if it clears the fence, even by a little, it counts as a HR.

 

Kepler is on a 30/HR year pace, do you think that's evident of his "true" HR power?

I don't think Morneau type numbers are beyond his reach, no.

King College Ball

King

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

I'm just trying to get a handle on his true power. I'm not implying his HRs were cheap because of which park they were hit in or how many rows up they landed. Obviously if it clears the fence, even by a little, it counts as a HR.

 

Kepler is on a 30/HR year pace, do you think that's evident of his "true" HR power?

His HR/FB is 19%. For reference - the league average is 12.9%.

 

His ISO this year with the Twins sits at .245 and steamer projects it at .145 (although Steamer isn't high on him to begin with). His highest ISO in the upper minors was .209 in AA last year - this year he had .173 in AAA. His power numbers are a bit elevated due to the HR/FB luck, but once he settles in, I could see him being a ~.175 ISO guy at the MLB level.

 

So to answer your question, no, I don't think he will be an annual 30 home run hitter and it's not a reflection of his true power. I see him more as a ~20 home run guy with lots of doubles and a good OBP, certainly a fine player.

ScottN Prep Ball

ScottN

Provisional Member
Posted
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Kepler:  Most impressive mid season call-up since Kirby, imo.

 

Edit: Forgot that Sano was a call-up, not on the opening roster last year.  My bad.

Twins have some impressive young players.  I hope to be remarking on their success as they mature.   We can hope!

amjgt FCL Twins

amjgt

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Peak Morneau was a truly great player. It's sad to look back at 2006-2010 and think what could have been (exactly half way through 2010 he had a OPS+ of 187)

 

I don't want to put that type of projection on a young kid, but I see no reason he can't be Morneau-lite in a couple years.

 

275/375/500, 25 HR

 

With a kid that big and athletic, could he take it one step further once he gets more experience and fills out his frame.....? Yeah, maybe. Just think of all the progress he's made in the last 18 months. Do we view it as a positive or a negative that in 2014 he had an OPS of 726 in high-A? A negative Nelly would use that to project his future stats. a positive Paul would commend him for an unbelievable improvement over 1.5 seasons.

laloesch First Round Pick

laloesch

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

the Berliner's wall

 

My vote is "mad max" not sure why other than his name starts with Max and I like the 1979 & 1981 flicks Mad Max & Mad Max 2.  :)

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