Have we hit rock bottom?

[gocgo]

As much as we would all like to think that it can't get worse than this season, it just might.

 

Consider this.  Would you pay for a season ticket next year?  What about if you were a successful business?  Would you spring for a suite to entertain clients?  Sure, it's a write off...but is it worth it?  Are your potential clients going to be "entertained"?

 

Soooo...let's assume that the season ticket sales go down next year and you are the Pohlads.  This is a business.  This is your business.  Do you cut expenses?  Do you try to find ways to grow revenue?  Sure you do.  But let's recognize that the latter is going to be tougher to do.  Cutting expenses is the easier route.  As is the case with most businesses, the payroll makes up the majority of the expenses and while cutting a few front office positions might save a little, the majority of the payroll is tied up in the players.

 

Soooo...the payroll goes down next year.  Free agent signings?  Forget about it.  Now, one could argue that we paid too much for the production that we've gotten from a lot of these guys anyway and I would have a tough time disagreeing.  That said, "you get what you pay for" doesn't always apply when you pay top dollar, but it often applies when you go cheap.

 

You are the Pohlads and you have a business to run.  The quality of your product has declined.  Some of your customers are unwilling to pay the prices for your product.  This isn't just a baseball team in a tailspin.  This is a business in a tailspin.  The bottom might not be in sight.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I doubt the Pohlads are losing money, even on this product.  MLB is pretty much a license to print money.   I think the best thing they could do is eat some dead contracts whether that be by DFA or by a trade and letting the kids play.  Payroll probably should drop as they go younger. 

[gocgo]

 

I doubt the Pohlads are losing money, even on this product.  MLB is pretty much a license to print money.   I think the best thing they could do is eat some dead contracts whether that be by DFA or by a trade and letting the kids play.  Payroll probably should drop as they go younger. 

They may not be losing money, but how do you invest in your team if you're revenue continues to decrease?

[nytwinsfan]

God I hope so.

[Vanimal46]

 

I doubt the Pohlads are losing money, even on this product.  MLB is pretty much a license to print money.   I think the best thing they could do is eat some dead contracts whether that be by DFA or by a trade and letting the kids play.  Payroll probably should drop as they go younger. 

Correct. I'm willing to bet without looking up the numbers that they saw an increase in season ticket sales as a result from the surprising 2015 campaign. Going into next year is when they'll see a decrease in season ticket renewals and revenues. As we know from past experience, if revenues are down, so will payroll. 

[gocgo]

 

Correct. I'm willing to bet without looking up the numbers that they saw an increase in season ticket sales as a result from the surprising 2015 campaign. Going into next year is when they'll see a decrease in season ticket renewals and revenues. As we know from past experience, if revenues are down, so will payroll. 

Agreed. So, the question then becomes whether the young guys can muster up more wins than the current roster?  Given the track record, I'm not confident.

[gunnarthor]

Well, the FA market - esp for starting pitchers - is really, really bad so that doesn't really matter anyway.  Their payroll will remain roughly the same.  Hughes gets a 4m raise but Jepsen and his 5+m salary are gone.  Plouffe is due a big raise but I think he gets traded.  So, even with the other arb raises, the payroll will be a bit lower than this year.  

[Taildragger8791]

My guess is season and single game ticket sales will be drastically down next year, and subsequent years until they demonstrate sustainable success. But as the Marlins and Astros have shown that can still be pretty profitable as long as payroll is low enough, and the Twins will be in a position in a couple years to have almost entirely minimum contracts. Especially if they manage to shed some pitchers. So the pressure to win won't come from the financial side of things. The Twins will always print money, especially with that ballpark and MLB revenue sharing.

[Craig Arko]

Hello, my name is Craig, and I'm a Twins Fan.

 

Recognition is the first step.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Not even close to rock bottom.  I would actually argue that they hit rock bottom during the multiple 90 loss seasons when they were carrying unproductive veterans and had no farm system to speak of.  

 

While this season is clearly a step back - I still remain very optimistic for the future.  If this young crop of players can mature and compete, they will be making money hand over fist with a bunch of players in the starting lineup under team control and playing at the major league minimum or the very least in very favorable arbitration deals.

 

While the losing may continue this season - I would be willing to bet they will begin to sell more tickets when they make the full transition to rebuilding in August and September. 

 

People want to see Polanco, Rosario, Sano, Kepler, Buxton in the same lineup everyday with Berrios, Gibson, and Duffy in the rotation and Burdi and Chargois in the pen.  

 

Get Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonzales and Kohl Stewart up with the big club next season and Nick Gordon at short by September next year - and then we have the team that will compete for five to six years.  

 

 

[alarp33]

 

 

 

While the losing may continue this season - I would be willing to bet they will begin to sell more tickets when they make the full transition to rebuilding in August and September. 

 

People want to see Polanco, Rosario, Sano, Kepler, Buxton in the same lineup everyday with Berrios, Gibson, and Duffy in the rotation and Burdi and Chargois in the pen.  

 

 

I'll take that bet.  Back to school, football season starting, and potentially a 40-100 record, you think Polanco, Rosario, Gibson and Duffey are going to sell tickets?  Only diehards that frequent a message board like this have any interest in those types of names (I wouldn't pay $1 to watch Eddie Rosario swing at 58 foot breaking balls). And I don't know about anyone else, but I'll buy a $2 ticket on Stubhub rather than through the box office if I decide to go see Berrios face a playoff contender in September.  

 

The stadium will be EMPTY in September (and likely August, other than perfect summer nights)

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

I'll take that bet.  Back to school, football season starting, and potentially a 40-100 record, you think Polanco, Rosario, Gibson and Duffey are going to sell tickets?  Only diehards that frequent a message board like this have any interest in those types of names (I wouldn't pay $1 to watch Eddie Rosario swing at 58 foot breaking balls). And I don't know about anyone else, but I'll buy a $2 ticket on Stubhub rather than through the box office if I decide to go see Berrios face a playoff contender in September.  

 

The stadium will be EMPTY in September (and likely August, other than perfect summer nights)

Yep. To steal a bit from Dan Cole the Common Man, people will be breaking car windows and setting Twins tickets on the dash because they can't even give away tickets for free. 

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

The stadium will be EMPTY in September (and likely August, other than perfect summer nights)

Finally, a break from all the riff raff. It's all I've ever wanted. 

 

Best. Season. Ever. 

[gocgo]

 

I'll take that bet.  Back to school, football season starting, and potentially a 40-100 record, you think Polanco, Rosario, Gibson and Duffey are going to sell tickets?  Only diehards that frequent a message board like this have any interest in those types of names (I wouldn't pay $1 to watch Eddie Rosario swing at 58 foot breaking balls). And I don't know about anyone else, but I'll buy a $2 ticket on Stubhub rather than through the box office if I decide to go see Berrios face a playoff contender in September.  

 

The stadium will be EMPTY in September (and likely August, other than perfect summer nights)

Yeah, Stubhub is already discounted a bunch and that will only get worse.  To your point, there is an incremental affect to that.  When a person can't get rid of the tickets or has to take a steep loss on those tickets, they don't tend to make the same mistake the next year.

[gocgo]

The sad thing is that I used to watch every night that I could on FSN.  It rarely even occurs to me to look to see if they are on now.  I check the box scores the next day...oh, they lost again...read the recap...yawn.

[nicksaviking]

 

Agreed. So, the question then becomes whether the young guys can muster up more wins than the current roster?  Given the track record, I'm not confident.

 

The law of averages and the historical ineptitude of the current product seems to indicate that an improvement would be nearly impossible not to achieve.

[Jham]

 

People want to see Polanco, Rosario, Sano, Kepler, Buxton in the same lineup everyday with Berrios, Gibson, and Duffy in the rotation and Burdi and Chargois in the pen.  

 

Get Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonzales and Kohl Stewart up with the big club next season and Nick Gordon at short by September next year - and then we have the team that will compete for five to six years.  

 

I say bring them up now!  Fans want to see these guys.  The season's lost anyway.  They can't be any worse than what we've got.  The players need to face big leaguers in order to get better.  And how else will we know what we have unless we play them in televised baseball games? *snark

I agreed with the first part of your post that we're miles ahead of the teams that lost but had no glimpse of future hope.  We should have been better this year even.  A lot of players are having career worst seasons at the same time.  Unlikely to continue or repeat, and many will be replaced.  

I would also disagree with the notion that people who actually pay money to attend games, drink beer, and eat mini donuts would rather watch prospects struggle to make contact than watch journeymen take professional at bats.  Think about it.  Winning is always more fun than losing.  Always.  

 

[ashbury]

My guess is season and single game ticket sales will be drastically down .... The Twins will always print money, especially with that ballpark

Is there something magical about this ballpark that brings in money when empty?

[ashbury]

I say bring them up now!  Fans want to see these guys.

Until a guy fails two games in a row. Then it's "bring me someone NEW!"

 

_{^{/ I think you were being satirical, so I am just piling on}}

[Jham]

 

Until a guy fails two games in a row. Then it's "bring me someone NEW!"

 

_{^{/ I think you were being satirical, so I am just piling on}}

Exactly.  I mean, is the state completely out of Mauers?

[Taildragger8791]

 

Is there something magical about this ballpark that brings in money when empty?

 

It's a nice outdoor stadium in the middle of downtown, and for some it's still seen as a fun way to spend a nice day on a weekend. A number of people will still show up if tickets are going cheap enough, and then spend a decent coin on massively marked up concessions and team gear. Pretty tough to not print money with that setup.

[mnfireman]

Games like yesterday are the ones that make this year tough for me. Grab a lead, but leave the bases loaded, give up the lead, grab a bigger lead, give it back, again, fall behind, tie it up and "boom", bullpen implosion and lose. And as tough as it on us, I think the players feel it too. Did you see Escobar's celebration after he tied the game in the 8th? I imagine he went just as far down after Jepson's latest misadventure (Ron Davis anyone?). Trade or DFA the deadweight, deadbeat veterans and bring on the kids. Let's get the excitement flowing again, baseball is a kid's game, it's supposed to be fun.

[Platoon]

Hello, my name is Craig, and I'm a Twins Fan.

 

Recognition is the first step.

I will be your sponsor. Whenever you get the urge to buy a ticket, call me. I will talk you down. Maybe we can instead meet for a Saints game?

[Craig Arko]

I will be your sponsor. Whenever you get the urge to buy a ticket, call me. I will talk you down. Maybe we can instead meet for a Saints game?

It's possible the only ticket I'll be buying this year is for the Pub Crawl game. Saints game would be fun, too.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not even close to rock bottom. I would actually argue that they hit rock bottom during the multiple 90 loss seasons when they were carrying unproductive veterans and had no farm system to speak of.

 

While this season is clearly a step back - I still remain very optimistic for the future. If this young crop of players can mature and compete, they will be making money hand over fist with a bunch of players in the starting lineup under team control and playing at the major league minimum or the very least in very favorable arbitration deals.

 

While the losing may continue this season - I would be willing to bet they will begin to sell more tickets when they make the full transition to rebuilding in August and September.

 

People want to see Polanco, Rosario, Sano, Kepler, Buxton in the same lineup everyday with Berrios, Gibson, and Duffy in the rotation and Burdi and Chargois in the pen.

 

Get Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonzales and Kohl Stewart up with the big club next season and Nick Gordon at short by September next year - and then we have the team that will compete for five to six years.

Aside from Buxton and Sano, the casual fan (which makes up most of the target audience) has literally never heard of any of those guys.

None of those guys are going to sell tickets, at least not in the short term.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's a nice outdoor stadium in the middle of downtown, and for some it's still seen as a fun way to spend a nice day on a weekend. A number of people will still show up if tickets are going cheap enough, and then spend a decent coin on massively marked up concessions and team gear. Pretty tough to not print money with that setup.

Yep, and unfortunately until that attitude goes away there is zero incentive for the Pohlads to make any changes.

Believe me, i agree with every nice thing every said about Target Field. I'd love to be there every night in the summer.

And, hopefully someday, when they are back to winning I will.

Until then I just can't contribute money to this mess.

I can only do my part, even if it isn't enough to make a difference.

[drivlikejehu]

Money is, unfortunately, the only language Jim Pohlad can (sort of) understand. Even though he's coming out ahead while losing, he knows there is more to be made by winning.

[Ncgo4]

The Twins are a mess from top to bottom. They are, however, almost certainly making money. Importantly, though, they may be underfunding some of the family trust funds. This could be the issue that finally motivates the Pohlads to shake up the front office. I know my wife gets pretty bitchy when my hours at WalMart drop and we have to reduce donations to the grandkid's trust funds.

 

Rock bottom? Hardly. Molly could lose the team completely and they could go down from where they are. Nunez and Grossman could return to their "norm" and Mauer could fall off. Think of the possibility that you inherited a baseball team. Who on the Twins would you trade for based on results so far? It may be that the Twins are over achieving. Well...maybe not.

 

What was it that the owners said about the Twins when they were 8-20? "A failure from top to bottom"? Something like that. Well guess what? Since then they've gone another 8-20. Sound like a team that's getting better?