Why Ryan should stay, for the time being!

[Guest]

If every candidate to replace Ryan states (essentially) "...I want total control...,  I need another 20-30MM dollars to spend...", then it's very likely Ryan remains.  I don't see the Pohlads   turning their ballclub over to a stranger especially if he expects to spend substantially more money.  Politically, I don't believe a complete teardown to <$50MM budget is a possibility either.  This sort of leaves the same course Ryan adopted in 2012-2013 or the course he took for 2015.

No good candidate would say anything else.

[Guest]

Right now some GMs are riding waves created by many losing seasons - is Dan Duquette a good GM? I'm not sure.

 

Duquette is better than TR: picking players off the scrap heap (Steve Pearce - where'd he come from?), putting together a bullpen, hiring a good manager with new ideas for how to win, pretty good record on when to fish or cut bait with veterans.

 

Also, he's not riding a wave from losing seasons, which is essentially the argument we were given for expecting this year to be good. With the main and substantial exception of Manny Machado and perhaps Matt Wieters, the Orioles were put together by winning deal after deal, e.g., Jim Hoey for JJ Hardy.

[DaveW]

In all honesty, do you really think Ryan would make a move to try and save his job? I mean, you can argue about his quality of a GM but I don't think there is anything in his track record that would suggest he would do something like that.

TR has never had the hot seat during his time in Minnesota. It's hard to say what he would do to be honest. Especially if it was to save other people's jobs as well.

[Twinfan & Dad]

In the perfect world Everyone would stop going to Twin games and send the dumba***s a message. Why should people pay to watch this crap. The mindset of an owner to stand beside a GM that has made this many headscratching signings and moves. Ryan is lucky he's not the CEO of a corporation because the board would have his butt fired by now. No other way to say it "He is inept."

[Guest]

No good candidate would say anything else.

Beane? He had an 8 year run of success in an often tough division, 1999-2006, a middling period from 2007-2011 but hardly a full rebuild before his 2012-2014 run.

 

Tampa Bay? They are in a middling period now, but turned over pretty well from 2008 to 2013. I think Longoria was the only carryover starter between those two teams.

 

And as you note, the "small market" designation probably doesn't even apply to the Twins, not since 2010 at least and probably going back to 2005 when Target Field was approved and our payrolls climbed and remained in mid-market territory. Teams like the White Sox probably become valid comparison points then. 5-6 year rebuild plans shouldn't really be in play for us anymore.

 

Luhnow inherited a disastrous 106 loss team (and had nothing to do with its construction) which was 6 seasons removed from its last postseason appearance, and in a 12 year old ballpark. I'm not sure why we give TR circa 2011-2012 the same rebuild timeline?

Why all the comparisons? There's one that is most resonant to me: Atlanta. They were overtly trying to stink this year, they had nobody who was predicted to be a candidate for ROY, much less three candidates, their best (and only good) player has been hurt, you probably can't even name most of their starters, and the GM definitely did not predict playoffs, yet their record is still better than the Twins. And even they fired their manager already.

[Mike Sixel]

Like any other product, if the product sucks, and the company is still making money, eventually they make less money. I have no obligation to judge a leader as successful if his product sucks and he is still making money. I don't buy cheap products. I don't generally support companies that put out bad products and sell cheep stuff. Others seem to want to judge the product on some other aspect than wins and losses. Feel free. To me, they are failing, badly. Other companies find a way to put out good products even with low revenues. Again, feel free to continue rooting the way you root. The product is entertainment, and wins to me. They have largely not provided any lately.

[USAFChief]

. 

 

Let’s turn this around.  I believe you indicated you were in IT.  If you were promoted to CIO tomorrow and my consulting firm came in and said “Mike, we are going to give you half the budget of other firms your size but we expect the same level of capabilities, response times, and service levels”, would you feel this is reasonable.

 

 

Can't speak for Mike, but if it were me, I'd go to my boss and tell him he wasted money on your consulting firm.

 

"All he did was set a budget. Isn't the idea of hiring a consulting firm that they're supposed to come in and offer ideas on how to be successful? He offered nothing but an excuse. Might I remind you...we've BEEN operating under your...um...cautious budget and that's one reason we're in this mess. Next time save the consulting firm money and get me a top starter and an outfielder with that money. I can get enough new customers to make up the difference."

[howeda7]

You could be right, but I doubt it. Even in years where they clearly had $$ to spend, Ryan usually doesn't spend it. He simply does not like FA signings unless absolutely desperate (such as starting pitching in 2012-14).

Ryan has continually fell on the sword for the Pohlads, money wise.
With laughably false statements like ownership has never said no to spending money, why wouldn't they keep him around while they print money while defrauding the tax payers?

 

[howeda7]

There's no functional difference to Terry going now or in October, but sometimes you just have to let the bad air out of the building. If the Twins play half-way decent in the 2nd half, I will be conflicted because I don't want a meaningless stretch of good play to save his job. Fans shouldn't have to feel that way. A move now says change is coming and let's everyone focus on the positives, if there are any.

[Major League Ready]

 

Can't speak for Mike, but if it were me, I'd go to my boss and tell him he wasted money on your consulting firm.

"All he did was set a budget. Isn't the idea of hiring a consulting firm that they're supposed to come in and offer ideas on how to be successful? He offered nothing but an excuse. Might I remind you...we've BEEN operating under your...um...cautious budget and that's one reason we're in this mess. Next time save the consulting firm money and get me a top starter and an outfielder with that money. I can get enough new customers to make up the difference."

I will grant you this could have been articulated a little better.  Mike is an outside entity as is my firm which is why I used a consulting firm as an example.  Perhaps it would have been a better example had I asked if would be reasonable for Mike’s customers to expect the same level of service as companies with twice the IT budget.  Regardless, I said what if we said there is no problem with you having half the budget of other firms trying to do the exact same thing.  We don’t care.  Just get it done.   The whole point is that this is a ridiculous assertion.  You obviously agree.  However, instead of concluding Mike’s position that budget did not matter was unreasonable, you conclude the consulting firm should be fired.  You are not even trying to be objective.  Ironically, in doing so, you just helped proved the point at the core of this which is fanaticism does not promote reasonable thought.

 

If you did not like this example, were the other two not sufficient to make the point?  Unless they too were flawed you elected to ignore the validity of the point.  Again, just more evidence of fanaticism leading to an unwillingness to be reasonable and objective.

[Major League Ready]

 

The problem with your argument is that the Pohlad's don't even spend the 52% of revenue anymore.
They told the taxpayers that they needed us to build a new stadium for them, so that they could spend enough to compete.
Payroll went up for a season or two, then they steadily dropped it, hoping nobody would notice.

And that's another argument. None of those other examples you cite are funded by taxpayer dollars.
Some other industries are given select tax breaks, but that is not comparable to flat out paying cash money for a businesses facilities.

Some might even consider that fraudulent behavior.

There are three problems with your argument. 

 

1) The Twins spending has been consistent with the rest of the league in terms of percentage of available funds spent.  If you want to use the public funding argument, it would be appropriate to argue the entire league should be investing in whatever manner you are advocating.  The only exception would be teams that have stadiums that were not subsidized by public funding.  Are their teams that did not get public funding for stadiums?  I honestly don't know.

 

2) Teams don’t (and should not) spend the maximum available funds during a rebuild.  One could argue the Twins spent far more on free agency than they should have as a rebuilding team.  Actually, I would make that argument.  The Hughes extension was premature and the Perkins extension made absolutely no sense to me.  They did spend a relatively large sum on Nolasco and Santana and they did not do it to contend unless they were delusional.  That was a very large investment to put a reasonable product on the field which goes against your position.  This investments had a low probability of paying off financially.   Many teams would have opted to suffer through the down period without spending this much a free agency so I believe there is a big hole in your argument. 

 

3) The fact that none of the example are publicly funded has nothing to do with the validity of the argument that available budget impacts capability.  What if I said “Mike, the state legislature has cut our funding in half.  However, I still expect you to deliver the same capabilities and service levels as when we had twice the budget.”

[Mr. Brooks]

There are three problems with your argument.

 

1) The Twins spending has been consistent with the rest of the league in terms of percentage of available funds spent. If you want to use the public funding argument, it would be appropriate to argue the entire league should be investing in whatever manner you are advocating. The only exception would be teams that have stadiums that were not subsidized by public funding. Are their teams that did not get public funding for stadiums? I honestly don't know.

 

2) Teams don’t (and should not) spend the maximum available funds during a rebuild. One could argue the Twins spent far more on free agency than they should have as a rebuilding team. Actually, I would make that argument. The Hughes extension was premature and the Perkins extension made absolutely no sense to me. They did spend a relatively large sum on Nolasco and Santana and they did not do it to contend unless they were delusional. That was a very large investment to put a reasonable product on the field which goes against your position. This investments had a low probability of paying off financially. Many teams would have opted to suffer through the down period without spending this much a free agency so I believe there is a big hole in your argument.

 

3) The fact that none of the example are publicly funded has nothing to do with the validity of the argument that available budget impacts capability. What if I said “Mike, the state legislature has cut our funding in half. However, I still expect you to deliver the same capabilities and service levels as when we had twice the budget.”

1) No, they are not spending a comparable percentage of revenue any more. They did the first couple of seasons, it has steadily dropped since.

 

2) I would agree, but the Twins don't carry any savings over to future seasons, so I'd rather they spend it on payroll rather than pocket it.

 

3) I'm not arguing that they shouldn't have a responsible cap. My argument is they are not even spending that.

[Major League Ready]

 

1) No, they are not spending a comparable percentage of revenue any more. They did the first couple of seasons, it has steadily dropped since.

2) I would agree, but the Twins don't carry any savings over to future seasons, so I'd rather they spend it on payroll rather than pocket it.

3) I'm not arguing that they shouldn't have a responsible cap. My argument is they are not even spending that.

Once again, you have ignored they are in a rebuilding phase.  Are you trying to say that it is not normal for teams to spend less during a rebuilding phase or if you a prefer, a phase when the team is not in contention?  It would appear, you want them to do something other teams deem to be a bad practice unless I wrong that other teams do not spend at their highest levels during a rebuild phase. 

 

Houston had a payroll around 30 million in 2013 and $52M in 2014.  http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2013/

 

The Marlins, As, Pirates and Padres had a payroll of  36M, 66,72, and 73 respectively.  I don't know for sure but I would guess these teams have stadiums were funded by the public.  At least the padres and Marlins could say they were rebuilding.  The A's and Pirates were obviously past their rebuilding phase as they were 90+ win teams.  The point being.  You have an expectation that teams spend every available dollar because they get public funds but teams don't spend money just because they can.   That is a ridiculous premise.

 

 

[jokin]

 

There's no functional difference to Terry going now or in October, but sometimes you just have to let the bad air out of the building.

 

In that case, it sure is a good thing they tore down the Metrodome...

[jokin]

 

 

Once again, you have ignored they are in a rebuilding phase. 

 

What a coincidence... so has Terry...

[jokin]

 

 

  Are you trying to say that it is not normal for teams to spend less during a rebuilding phase or if you a prefer, a phase when the team is not in contention?

 

I've been told... quite often, in fact... that the "parade" began last year.

 

I've yet to see the confetti, let alone the floats and marching band.

[alarp33]

 

Once again, you have ignored they are in a rebuilding phase.  Are you trying to say that it is not normal for teams to spend less during a rebuilding phase or if you a prefer, a phase when the team is not in contention?

 

They went 83-79 last year and said the GM said the goal this season was to win the AL Central. That's rebuilding?

 

REBUILDING:

 

 

“I do think we’re a playoff-caliber club,” Ryan said before Monday’s season opener at Camden Yards. “I don’t have any qualms to mention that. I just think this is a good ball club and we ought to be pointing toward that type of ceiling.”

 

“I don’t care how many wins it takes as long as we’re in,” Ryan said. “Whether it takes 84 or 80 or 90, that’s where we need to go.”

 

“We need to go out and try to win this division,” he said. “Not a wild-card spot. That’s dangerous. You’d like to make sure you at least get five games (in a playoff series) to go out and prove you’re that type of ball club.

[USAFChief]

 

I will grant you this could have been articulated a little better.  Mike is an outside entity as is my firm which is why I used a consulting firm as an example.  Perhaps it would have been a better example had I asked if would be reasonable for Mike’s customers to expect the same level of service as companies with twice the IT budget.  Regardless, I said what if we said there is no problem with you having half the budget of other firms trying to do the exact same thing.  We don’t care.  Just get it done.   The whole point is that this is a ridiculous assertion.  You obviously agree.  However, instead of concluding Mike’s position that budget did not matter was unreasonable, you conclude the consulting firm should be fired.  You are not even trying to be objective.  Ironically, in doing so, you just helped proved the point at the core of this which is fanaticism does not promote reasonable thought.

 

If you did not like this example, were the other two not sufficient to make the point?  Unless they too were flawed you elected to ignore the validity of the point.  Again, just more evidence of fanaticism leading to an unwillingness to be reasonable and objective.

I didn't quote the entire post because examples 2 and 3 were redundant.  Also, I usually don't quote long posts in entirety because it serves only to make the site more difficult to navigate.

 

I would still argue your "consulting firm" has offered up nothing in the way of suggestions, just admonitions we should expect a substandard product because the Twins don't have the revenue of the Yankees or Dodgers.

 

I don't accept that as a fan of the Twins, I shouldn't complain about 550 losses over 6 seasons, one playoff win in decades, a team that was superficially competitive in a bad division but felt OK with giving Jason Tyner two starts at DH in a three game postseason sweep, all because they CAN'T be expected to be better.

 

Revenue is a handicap. It's at least partially a self imposed handicap, but whatever.  Deal with it effectively, or find someone capable of dealing with it effectively.   "We can't expect to win" doesn't cut it with me.

[Shaitan]

 

They went 83-79 last year and said the GM said the goal this season was to win the AL Central. That's rebuilding?

 

REBUILDING:

 

 

“I do think we’re a playoff-caliber club,” Ryan said before Monday’s season opener at Camden Yards. “I don’t have any qualms to mention that. I just think this is a good ball club and we ought to be pointing toward that type of ceiling.”

 

“I don’t care how many wins it takes as long as we’re in,” Ryan said. “Whether it takes 84 or 80 or 90, that’s where we need to go.”

 

“We need to go out and try to win this division,” he said. “Not a wild-card spot. That’s dangerous. You’d like to make sure you at least get five games (in a playoff series) to go out and prove you’re that type of ball club.

 

Stand PR. You'd rather he said "I don't care if they win or lose?"

 

I bet the players would love that.

[Major League Ready]

 

I didn't quote the entire post because examples 2 and 3 were redundant.  Also, I usually don't quote long posts in entirety because it serves only to make the site more difficult to navigate.

 

I would still argue your "consulting firm" has offered up nothing in the way of suggestions, just admonitions we should expect a substandard product because the Twins don't have the revenue of the Yankees or Dodgers.

 

I don't accept that as a fan of the Twins, I shouldn't complain about 550 losses over 6 seasons, one playoff win in decades, a team that was superficially competitive in a bad division but felt OK with giving Jason Tyner two starts at DH in a three game postseason sweep, all because they CAN'T be expected to be better.

 

Revenue is a handicap. It's at least partially a self imposed handicap, but whatever.  Deal with it effectively, or find someone capable of dealing with it effectively.   "We can't expect to win" doesn't cut it with me.

The entire point was that it would be ridiculous for my consulting firm to take this position.  I even conceded that using a consulting form as an example could confuse the point.  I then offered a more concise analogy that it would be unreasonable for his customers to expect the exact same result as a firm with twice the budget.  It is absolutely absurd that anyone would argue this point.

 

Accepting that there are limitations that might necessitate a rebuilding period is an entirely different premise than "we cant expect to win"  That is just another fanatical response. 

 

Remember, the original point was that the Twins have an exceptional record when compared to the other teams with revenue restrictions.  All I am arguing is that there are realities associated with being a team with less available revenue.  I am making a point that down cycles and rebuilds are inevitable.  You want to argue that we should not expect or accept them.  Which position is supported by history?    

[alarp33]

 

Stand PR. You'd rather he said "I don't care if they win or lose?"

 

I bet the players would love that.

 

We must have a very different idea of what the definition of rebuilding is.  

 

They won 83 games this year, you think it was just lip service when he said they expected to make the playoffs?  

 

Personally, I thought it was a long shot at best they would make the playoffs.  But they absolutely expected too.  

[twinsnorth49]

 

 

 

2) Teams don’t (and should not) spend the maximum available funds during a rebuild.  One could argue the Twins spent far more on free agency than they should have as a rebuilding team.  Actually, I would make that argument.  The Hughes extension was premature and the Perkins extension made absolutely no sense to me.  They did spend a relatively large sum on Nolasco and Santana and they did not do it to contend unless they were delusional.  That was a very large investment to put a reasonable product on the field which goes against your position.  This investments had a low probability of paying off financially.   Many teams would have opted to suffer through the down period without spending this much a free agency so I believe there is a big hole in your argument. 

 

 

So, we're a rebuilding team how exactly then? Why is this team worse off than 2011 when TR first came back? It's year 5 of the alleged  rebuild, where are we going? Are they a rebuilding team simply because they suck? If that's the qualifier, he's doing a bang up job.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

Luhnow inherited a disastrous 106 loss team (and had nothing to do with its construction) which was 6 seasons removed from its last postseason appearance, and in a 12 year old ballpark.  I'm not sure why we give TR circa 2011-2012 the same rebuild timeline?

 

One thing to remember about Luhnow is some pretty interesting questions regarding ethics and the way he runs his front office.  He got a little bit of egg on his face when their private DB was hacked and it's contents spilled all over the net.  Then you have the whole Brady Aiken fiasco and some rumors out there about how he negotiated arb extensions with some of his players.  Some of that was downright wrong if it was true.  That's the kind of stuff that can absolutely destroy a team if anything backfires, not to mention building a culture that I suspect none of us would want in our team. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Stand PR. You'd rather he said "I don't care if they win or lose?"

 

I bet the players would love that.

The quotes about contending don't bother me.  It's the actions that totally back up the quotes, where short term veteran stability usually trumps the future -- no playing time for Kepler, Polanco, Meyer, or even much for Berrios.  No starts for Trevor May.  The commitment to short-term guys like Plouffe, Suzuki, Jepsen, David Murphy, probably Sean Burnett soon, Pelfrey, Duensing, and Boyer last year, etc.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No good candidate would say anything else.

 

Don't agree here.  We have young kids coming up, and lots of them. The spend component will be low.

 

Eating contracts, on the other hand... yeah, there's something there.  But I don't think payroll is going to need to go up in the short term at least. 

[DaveW]

 

Don't agree here.  We have young kids coming up, and lots of them. The spend component will be low.

 

Eating contracts, on the other hand... yeah, there's something there.  But I don't think payroll is going to need to go up in the short term at least. 

The Nolasco, Perkins and Mauer contracts are all "done" in the next couple years. So that gives you some nice payroll flexibility moving fwd IMO.

 

In the short term Jepsen, Milone, Plouffe all save you a nice chunk as well.

[DaveW]

 

 

So, we're a rebuilding team how exactly then? Why is this team worse off than 2011 when TR first came back? It's year 5 of the alleged  rebuild, where are we going? Are they a rebuilding team simply because they suck? If that's the qualifier, he's doing a bang up job.

Yeah this is the most annoying part to me about this team, people can continue to point to the mid market (fallacy IMO) issue or the Twins are in the rebuilding phase bit, but at the end of the day these are just excuses. The whole point of professional sports is to win the games. Fans shouldn't be forced to accept the fact that after 5-6 years the Twins are now the worst team in baseball, in any other sports city in America I firmly believe that the GM, FO, Coach, and some of the players would have be ran off weeks, months or in some cases years ago.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So, we're a rebuilding team how exactly then? Why is this team worse off than 2011 when TR first came back? It's year 5 of the alleged  rebuild, where are we going? Are they a rebuilding team simply because they suck? If that's the qualifier, he's doing a bang up job.

 

I think your timeline is a bit off.  They thought they were a playoff team in 2011, and after 2010, not many would have disagreed.  2012 would be the soonest timeline where a rebuild would have officially begun, and even that was more a stand pat move given that they had so many injuries in 2011.  This team started it's rebuild in 2013 when they traded Span and Revere for Meyer and May.  Granted, they got a bit of a head start from really bad years in 2011 and 2012, but I don't think it was official until 2013 (and even then they didn't come out and say it though I doubt anyone would ever publicly do so).

 

But to answer the question, I don't think even now they would be in the beginning of one.  They are nearing the end of the rebuild.  They have a nice wave of talented players that need to mature in the majors or need some seasoning in AAA as well as some very interesting options in the lower minors.  What they need to do at this point is start shedding some of those bad contracts and letting the kids that are ready play every day.  They need to add resources where appropriate that have a history of success in taking kids at this level and getting them to make the steps to go from below average to average and from average to above average.  They need to shed contracts where appropriate, and this offseason, they will need to target options that can provide above average value at positions where the farm system doesn't have much in terms of options. 

 

They could still be very competitive in 2017.  I'm not quite as confident in that as I was a year ago, but it's still doable. 

[DaveW]

 

 

 

They could still be very competitive in 2017.  I'm not quite as confident in that as I was a year ago, but it's still doable. 

It's pretty rare for a team to go from 100+ losses to the playoffs the next year. If the Twins are going to want to inspire confidence in being very competitive in 2017, they need to end the rest of this season on a somewhat high note by playing .500 ball, at this stage, I don't see that happening. Way too many issues in the rotation, pen, lineup and defense.

Make no mistake, the 2016 Minnesota Twins are a very bad team.

[Shaitan]

 

We must have a very different idea of what the definition of rebuilding is.  

 

They won 83 games this year, you think it was just lip service when he said they expected to make the playoffs?  

 

Personally, I thought it was a long shot at best they would make the playoffs.  But they absolutely expected too.  

 

I think what any GM says to the press is white noise, neither to be believed nor disbelieved. I agree with your latter statement ("personally..."). And they should expect to make the playoffs, even if the roster is inferior because playing without that confidence would only hurt them. It doesn't mean they shouldn't try to improve the roster...that's a whole additional topic that I think TD has thoroughly covered.