Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Vanimal46]

 

Responses like that make me wonder how much he's actually paid attention to the Twins camp this year. Park has been the highlight of the team this spring, whereas Vargas was warming pine in the WBC for 2 weeks. Park has easily evened the competition and Vargas will have to show something this last week to keep his hold on the DH spot.

 

Yeah, especially when it comes to chats on Fangraphs, most of the authors aren't digging deep on teams. Really their opinions spread a mile wide, and an inch deep. Whereas we on this message board have opinions an inch wide and a mile deep. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Yeah, especially when it comes to chats on Fangraphs, most of the authors aren't digging deep on teams. Really their opinions spread a mile wide, and an inch deep. Whereas we on this message board have opinions an inch wide and a mile deep. 

Um, yeah. Kinda...

[Mike Sixel]

Clay: Been disappointed for the last couple years that the Twins drafted Jay over Benintendi, even if he becomes the next Andrew Miller, this is bad. Why was the plugged pulled so early?

Keith Law: I think the new Twins brass had already decided Jay was a reliever, or was unlikely enough to work out as a starter, so they moved him. I don’t agree with it, although there was clearly reliever risk with him going forward

[Mike Sixel]

Marshall MN: Should Twins fans expect a bounce back season from Sano, or was 2016 an accurate representation of his reality? I had hopes of him being a better hitter than what he showed last year, not a guy who hits .230 with an OBP of .319.

 

 

Keith Law: Yes, I think there’s more in that bat, in average and in OBP.

[Vanimal46]

I'm very bullish on Sano and like that KLaw feels the same. I think we're going to look back 5 years from now and laugh that others were worried about his offensive production.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I can't believe anyone is worried about Sano. I think it's pretty clear the type of player he will be.

[Taildragger8791]

I'm very bullish on Sano and like that KLaw feels the same. I think we're going to look back 5 years from now and laugh that others were worried about his offensive production.

I think the worry isn't that he'll be unproductive, but that his ceiling feels so incredibly high yet he's not showing the progression you'd hope for if he's going to get to that level.

 

Think of it like this: If he turns out to be Giancarlo Stanton then of course anyone would be happy to have that, but would you still feel like he fell short of what he could be? I'd feel like something was left on the table seeing as how he was compared more to Miguel Cabrera than the "3 true outcomes" type of players.

[Vanimal46]

Depends on how you feel about Stanton. I think Sano will be a top 3 MVP contender for a year or 2. At the very least, someone you can comfortably slot in at cleanup for the next decade.

[Riverbrian]

What Sano really needs is a big Thome type lefty hitting right behind him. 

 

And... That ability to lay off pitches out of the zone that he had his rookie year. 

 

Those two things

 

And... Focus on defense... 

 

OK... Those three things.

 

And... this lamp

 

OK... those 4 things

 

and

[Taildragger8791]

Depends on how you feel about Stanton. I think Sano will be a top 3 MVP contender for a year or 2. At the very least, someone you can comfortably slot in at cleanup for the next decade.

I think Stanton is a bit of a frustrating player because of how good he is and how much game-changing ability he has, yet he also goes into prolonged slumps where he's racking up strikeouts in bunches. Kind of like how Dozier was driving us mad with his hot/cold streaks, except our lineup wasn't built entirely around Dozier's power-hitting threat.

[Vanimal46]

Today at Fangraphs, "2017 Positional Power Rankings: Center Field" 

 

Not too shabby for Buxton to be projected similar values to Adam Eaton and Odubel Herrera. 

 

[Vanimal46]

Another interesting tid-bit from the CF article: 

"The strikeout problems look like they’re sticking around, but if Buxton really does combine elite range with some legitimate power, then there’s certainly room for a Mike Cameron-style career here. That might sound like a disappointment given where he was rated, but Cameron was a criminally underrated player, and the Twins should be happy if that’s what they get for the next 10 to 15 years." 

That comp doesn't sound disappointing at all! Mike Cameron ended up being a 50 WAR player. 

[drjim]

I'm a Buxton kool aid drinker, I see Cameron as his (non-catastrophic injury edition) floor.

 

I see Buxton with multiple 7-8 WAR seasons. Cameron never got above 5.5.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm a Buxton kool aid drinker, I see Cameron as his (non-catastrophic injury edition) floor.

I see Buxton with multiple 7-8 WAR seasons. Cameron never got above 5.5.

 

Multiple 7-8 WAR seasons? how many players have even done that?

 

50 WAR is his floor? wow. You are high (on him)

[nicksaviking]

Personally, I think Buxton's strikeouts drop noticeably once he's finally able to stop tinkering with his swing for a year or so. Leg kick, no leg kick. Leg kick, no leg kick. Give the guy some consistency. (Obviously with the leg kick )

[Vanimal46]

I am high on Buxton too and would be thrilled for a 50 WAR career like Cameron... 8 seasons of 4+ WAR is quite impressive.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I am starting to cool off on the idea of Buxton or Sano ever reaching the levels that they were initially projected to achieve.

At this point I'd be relieved to see a Mike Cameron career out of Buxton. That's essentially almost a Torii Hunter career. I could watch a young Torii for another 10 years. The first go-around was fun.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Another interesting tid-bit from the CF article: 

"The strikeout problems look like they’re sticking around, but if Buxton really does combine elite range with some legitimate power, then there’s certainly room for a Mike Cameron-style career here. That might sound like a disappointment given where he was rated, but Cameron was a criminally underrated player, and the Twins should be happy if that’s what they get for the next 10 to 15 years." 

That comp doesn't sound disappointing at all! Mike Cameron ended up being a 50 WAR player. 

Yeah, Cameron was really underrated. He was basically Torii Hunter without the pub.

 

While it'd be a mild disappointment to see Buxton turn into that player, it's the kind of disappointment one can get over rather easily.

[Mike Sixel]

Cameron has 10 more WAR than Torii.....so, I think y'all might still be under rating him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Cameron has 10 more WAR than Torii.....so, I think y'all might still be under rating him.

A huge portion of that value came on defense. I don't have a lot of faith in the defensive metrics used when Cameron and Hunter were in their primes. You'll have a hell of a time convincing me Hunter was a negative defensive player for over half his career as FG wants us to believe.

 

Overall, they were pretty comparable players. B-Ref has Hunter at 50 WAR, Cameron at 46 WAR.

[Willihammer]

WAR debate in 3... 2... 1...

[Willihammer]

Ah, too slow!

[Vanimal46]

 

Cameron has 10 more WAR than Torii.....so, I think y'all might still be under rating him.

 

Absolutely. Cameron put up 50 WAR in 14 seasons... Torii put up 40 WAR in 20 seasons. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Absolutely. Cameron put up 50 WAR in 14 seasons... Torii put up 40 WAR in 20 seasons. 

Only if you use fWAR.

 

A good rule of thumb I developed years ago regarding WAR is "if a player is generating an undue amount of WAR value from defense, be skeptical of the number".

 

That doesn't mean FG is wrong, Cameron may have been that good defensively.

 

But what is more likely is that the old, limited data from the late 90s and early 2000s wasn't terribly accurate. It's not as if we're comparing Cameron to Josh Willingham. It's Torii-freakin-Hunter. Yeah, Hunter was probably overrated defensively for much of his career but there's no denying the guy was frickin' brilliant out there for a long time.

 

It's also problematic that using bWAR, Hunter has a slight advantage over Cameron.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Only if you use fWAR.

 

A good rule of thumb I developed years ago regarding WAR is "if a player is generating an undue amount of WAR value from defense, be skeptical of the number".

 

That doesn't mean FG is wrong, Cameron may have been that good defensively.

 

But what is more likely is that the old, limited data from the late 90s and early 2000s wasn't terribly accurate. It's not as if we're comparing Cameron to Josh Willingham. It's Torii-freakin-Hunter. Yeah, Hunter was probably overrated defensively for much of his career but there's no denying the guy was frickin' brilliant out there for a long time.

 

It's also problematic that using bWAR, Hunter has a slight advantage over Cameron.

 

14 vs 20 years also matters....

 

but ya, they are pretty much the same.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

14 vs 20 years also matters....

 

but ya, they are pretty much the same.

Sure, it matters, but at the end of the day, I'd call them comparable players.

 

And seasons is a bit misleading, as Hunter only had 1,800 more PAs than Cameron. That's roughly three full seasons.

 

And Cameron was done as a starter after his age 36 season, gathering only 400 PAs after that point. Hunter accumulated, you guessed it, 1,800 PAs after his age 36 season.

[Vanimal46]

 

Only if you use fWAR.

 

A good rule of thumb I developed years ago regarding WAR is "if a player is generating an undue amount of WAR value from defense, be skeptical of the number".

 

That doesn't mean FG is wrong, Cameron may have been that good defensively.

 

But what is more likely is that the old, limited data from the late 90s and early 2000s wasn't terribly accurate. It's not as if we're comparing Cameron to Josh Willingham. It's Torii-freakin-Hunter. Yeah, Hunter was probably overrated defensively for much of his career but there's no denying the guy was frickin' brilliant out there for a long time.

 

It's also problematic that using bWAR, Hunter has a slight advantage over Cameron.

 

That sounds fair. Both of them were the cream of the crop in CF for a long time. 

[drjim]

Multiple 7-8 WAR seasons? how many players have even done that?

 

50 WAR is his floor? wow. You are high (on him)

Really high. All-time elite d in center and wRCs in the 120-130s, possibly higher for a couple seasons.

 

Total WAR is not all that interesting to me, much more interested in peaks.

 

EDIT: I'll revise the wRCs down slightly.

[drjim]

My comp is more Eric Davis, but with elite rather than medicore d in cf and hopefully a little healthier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

My comp is more Eric Davis, but with elite rather than medicore d in cf and hopefully a little healthier.

Good luck with that.