Article: Sano and the Strikeout

[nater79a]

 

2013 set the record for most strike outs as well as strike out rate relative to AL. The Twins strike out rate of 23% was 16.4% above league average rate. The top (or is it bottom) 5 Twin teams.

 

2013 +16.4%

1982 +15.6%

1973 +13.8%

1997 +  7.8%

2014 +  7.7%

 

The Senators stand out for strike outs just prior to coming to Minnesota and posted rates relative to league above the +16.4% in 1959 and 1960.

 

From 2004 to 2012 the Twins batters struck out less than league average. 

 

After 1 game in 2016 they are 13.2% above league average.

 

Thanks- excellent analysis.

 

All teams strike out a lot these days.  So it makes sense to go beyond the raw numbers and look at it from the league average perspective.

[lightfoot789]

 

Yeah. Walker finished AA with an OPS of 807 last year. Sano was dominating to the tune of 915 and 918 there in his stints.

At the time Sano left Chattanooga for the Twins - Walker had a .940 OPS to Sano's .918.

 

Walker 23 HRs / 67 RBI / 18 2B / 50 runs scored [batting 7th] at the time of Sano's promotion.  .272 BA

 

Sano 15 HRs / 52 RBI / 18 2B / 52 runs scored [batting 3rd] with Polanco in front of him and Kepler (MVP) behind him.     .274 BA

 

But Sano did walk more - Chances are that Sano was already driven home by the time Walker came to the plate or the inning was aready over.  Just saying Sano's BB did not help Walker drive in 106 RBI.  The only time Walker hit 4th was the year he had a 20% K rate.  More to K's than just K's.  Protection is a real thing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah this is a good point. If Buxton ends up on pace for the most strikeouts in club history (or even top ten) then he definitely needs to be sent down for some seasoning in AAA.

Buxton eventually will be fine, he is always a slow starter, but if he looks like he did in 2015 at some point a month or two into the season you have to think hard about whether or not that is costing games.

Ideally he turns a corner soon and we don't have to worry about any of this!

 

I'm not sure where this 'he's always a slow starter' is coming from.  He was decent in rookie ball.  Downright awesome in A ball and A+ in his first full season (and I might add he got off to a pretty quick start there).  He got off to a slow start in high A due to injury and hurt his wrist shortly after, spending nearly all of the season on the DL.  He got off to a slow start in AA last year (though I think rust played a huge part in that).  His situation right now might be related to a slow start, but it might be related to being overmatched.

 

Remember, Aaron Hicks had a well documented history of slow starts, moreso than Buxton (he was overmatched too FWIW).  I know Buxton isn't Hicks, but leaving him at the ML level just b/c he's Buxton is a good way to develop Hicks part 2. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

At the time Sano left Chattanooga for the Twins - Walker had a .940 OPS to Sano's .918.

 

Walker 23 HRs / 67 RBI / 18 2B / 50 runs scored [batting 7th] at the time of Sano's promotion.  .272 BA

 

Sano 15 HRs / 52 RBI / 18 2B / 52 runs scored [batting 3rd] with Polanco in front of him and Kepler (MVP) behind him.     .274 BA

 

But Sano did walk more - Chances are that Sano was already driven home by the time Walker came to the plate or the inning was aready over.  Just saying Sano's BB did not help Walker drive in 106 RBI.  The only time Walker hit 4th was the year he had a 20% K rate.  More to K's than just K's.  Protection is a real thing.

 

Wrong conclusion.  Sano's walks helped Walker get extra at bats to get all those counting stats.  Outs are a real thing too.  Nothing against Walker, I like him, but he's got flaws... well documented ones at that, and something I'd add that AA pitchers capitalized on during the second half.  Yes, protection is a real thing, but it wasn't Walker protecting Sano.  Sano was likely protecting those guys around him, which is why he was batting in the 3/4 spot. 

[Darius]

Strike outs are overrated (in a negative kind of way).

 

I'd prefer a guy who strikes out 300 times, and hits the ball with authority when it's put in play, as opposed to a guy like Mauer who "hates to strike out," so he weakly grounds into 2 DPs per game.

[Platoon]

Three points from various posts:

Sano takes a lot of pitches, including what seems to be an awful lot of good looking called third strikes.

Protection? Miggy had one or both of of the Martinez behind him, IIRC. That's a lot of protection. I am not sure Plouffe and Rosario strike that amount of fear into the hearts of the mound opponents.

IF I had my druthers, I would prefer Sano in the 4 hole. But every time I try and fashion a lineup like that, I can't find anyone to hit 3. It's been a problem for the Twins for a long time, a pure 3 hitter.

[jimmer]

Strikeouts are helped by the yearly expansion of the called strike zone since 2009.

[jimmer]

Strike outs are overrated (in a negative kind of way).

 

I'd prefer a guy who strikes out 300 times, and hits the ball with authority when it's put in play, as opposed to a guy like Mauer who "hates to strike out," so he weakly grounds into 2 DPs per game.

2 DPs a game would be quite something. That'd be some kind of untouchable record to average 2 DPs a game. And I'm pretty sure it has zero to do with his desire to not strikeout. Edited April 5, 2016 by jimmer

[Jeff A]

Bill James apparently believes that, while strikeout pitchers are more effective than non-strikeout pitchers, strikeout batters are not less effective than non-strikeout batters.  I don't have a subscription, so I can't read the article, but here's an article that references it:  https://www.baseballmusings.com/?p=84350.

[tobi0040]

Wrong conclusion. Sano's walks helped Walker get extra at bats to get all those counting stats. Outs are a real thing too. Nothing against Walker, I like him, but he's got flaws... well documented ones at that, and something I'd add that AA pitchers capitalized on during the second half. Yes, protection is a real thing, but it wasn't Walker protecting Sano. Sano was likely protecting those guys around him, which is why he was batting in the 3/4 spot.

And at the time of promotion, Sano had 66 games at AA in 2013 under his belt with a 913 OPS (with a 47 HR pace)

Edited April 5, 2016 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

Bill James apparently believes that, while strikeout pitchers are more effective than non-strikeout pitchers, strikeout batters are not less effective than non-strikeout batters. I don't have a subscription, so I can't read the article, but here's an article that references it: https://www.baseballmusings.com/?p=84350.

Guessing the caveat is if they are producing runs. That has always been his focus.

[USAFChief]

A pretty decent history of the K (Hint:  rising K rates are not a new phenomena):

 

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strikeout-ascendant-and-what-should-be-done-about-it/

 

[lightfoot789]

 

Wrong conclusion.  Sano's walks helped Walker get extra at bats to get all those counting stats.  Outs are a real thing too.  Nothing against Walker, I like him, but he's got flaws... well documented ones at that, and something I'd add that AA pitchers capitalized on during the second half.  Yes, protection is a real thing, but it wasn't Walker protecting Sano.  Sano was likely protecting those guys around him, which is why he was batting in the 3/4 spot. 

Never said that.  Never suggested that.  My point was that Sano has had the luxuary of having the Polanco's; Rosario's; Kepler's; Vargas's batting in front and behind him for years and has flourished in that role.  Those guys protecting each other.  He is a great player.

 

Walker is a strikeout prone hitter who benefitted his only solid year (20% K rate) when he hit 4th in the lineup.  Does batting order have a significant role in why hitters strikeout more or less?  Protection?  Will it help Sano?  Should you see more fastballs with great contact hitters in front and behind you?  Are the Twins built that way?

[lightfoot789]

Note:  I only bring up Walker because he was the worst in baseball last year (strikeouts).   Despite his .940 OPS and other first half numbers last year, his K rate was ridiculous.   The K rate continued and the other stats dropped as Sano and Buxton moved on.  Are stats a result of the people around you and your tools?  How will this affect Sano this season (better or worse)?  I believe K's are a reflection of lots more than just bad pitch recognition.  How and Why do they pitch to you a certain way?

 

 

[jorgenswest]

A DH who can put up an RC+ of 120 or better is a major league player. In spite of the increasing strikeouts, Walker has been able to maintain that level of production. When he produces at that level in AAA over a season, an opportunity in the majors will arrive.

 

The prospect rankings or projections really don't matter. The Twins have steadily moved him up the ladder and Walker has steadily produced. Let's see what he does with his AAA opportunity this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The prospect rankings or projections really don't matter. The Twins have steadily moved him up the ladder and Walker has steadily produced. Let's see what he does with his AAA opportunity this year.

To me, ABW is a gift card. I didn't expect to get it, I didn't budget for it, and it's basically free money.

 

On the other hand, if I never got the gift card, I wouldn't care too much about it.

 

There's a high probability of failure with ABW but that's okay. If he turns into something valuable, fantastic!

[GMinTraining]

 

A DH who can put up an RC+ of 120 or better is a major league player. In spite of the increasing strikeouts, Walker has been able to maintain that level of production. When he produces at that level in AAA over a season, an opportunity in the majors will arrive.

The prospect rankings or projections really don't matter. The Twins have steadily moved him up the ladder and Walker has steadily produced. Let's see what he does with his AAA opportunity this year.

AAA won't matter either.  The same has been said about Walker at every level.  "Wait to see if he can do it at the next level" - Like all prospects, Walker will have to prove it in the majors as well.   Like he should.    His production is without question the best in the system over the last 3 years.    Future probabilities outweigh his production every level.  Is what it is!

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

His production is without question the best in the system over the last 3 years.

Only because the other guys were injured for an entire season or something close to it.

 

When healthy, both Buxton and Sano posted numbers far exceeding anything ABW has done in MiLB.

 

I do not understand the fascination with ABW. Some people act as if he's a Golden God when his best OPS came in A ball and didn't even crack .850 (.844). And his MiLB OBP of .311 is "ick" territory.

 

Buxton has a career MiLB OPS of .872 and Sano is at .937.

[TheLeviathan]

I pulled this thread up and all I read about is ABW.

 

Looks like Garrett Jones is going to need to hand over that "Golden Calf" moniker.

[jorgenswest]

AAA won't matter either.  The same has been said about Walker at every level.  "Wait to see if he can do it at the next level" - Like all prospects, Walker will have to prove it in the majors as well.   Like he should.    His production is without question the best in the system over the last 3 years.    Future probabilities outweigh his production every level.  Is what it is!

AAA will matter if he doesn't produce. He has produced every year. The Twins have responded by advancing him every year. The only thing that matters now is how well he handles AAA. Success in AAA will lead to opportunity in the majors.

[tobi0040]

I like the gift card analogy a lot. To add, you are not going to get a gift card with a huge amount of value on it.

 

ABW's power is intriguing. But let's take a step back. He will be a 24 year old in AAA for the first time. He came off an 844 OPS and red flags about k's, BB's, and OBP in AA. So that probably translates to a 750 OPS guy up here, which is not terribly awe inspiring at DH.