Game one (over) reactions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What does opening day have to do with anything? Does Opening Day count less? Are teams not supposed to take out their "opening day starters" at any point? It was a close game. You have to manage game one just like you would manage game 100.

No, I just don't get too riled up over one game of 162. As I implied, if this is a trend that continues, then I'll start to fret over it.

 

I also tend to not get too riled up about any single in-game move unless it was entirely indefensible. In this case, I can understand the reluctance to go to your backup catcher on Opening Day. Would I have made the same move? Dunno. Don't really care, either.

[jimmer]

It's either a good strategy or a bad strategy. All games count the same in the standings.

[DaveW]

 

No, I just don't get too riled up over one game of 162. As I implied, if this is a trend that continues, then I'll start to fret over it.

 

I also tend to not get too riled up about any single in-game move unless it was entirely indefensible. In this case, I can understand the reluctance to go to your backup catcher on Opening Day. Would I have made the same move? Dunno. Don't really care, either.

Yes Brock, I know it's one game out of 162, however to me this just shows that the trend from 2015 (and before) is still around. How many times did Suzuki let the Twins down in "big" moments last year when there would/could have been superior options available to PH for him late?

 

Again, what is the point of even having a bench when you don't even PH your worst hitter in the 9th inning of a tied game? This isn't a "one game issue" this is an organizational philosophy issue. Just like "defer to the veterans" is an org philosophy issue.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's either a good strategy or a bad strategy. All games count the same in the standings.

And every manager makes moves we disagree with over the course of 162 games. I tend to not get too worked up about it until the manager is consistently making statistically bad moves.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes Brock, I know it's one game out of 162, however to me this just shows that the trend from 2015 (and before) is still around. How many times did Suzuki let the Twins down in "big" moments last year when there would/could have been superior options available to PH for him late?

 

Again, what is the point of even having a bench when you don't even PH your worst hitter in the 9th inning of a tied game? This isn't a "one game issue" this is an organizational philosophy issue. Just like "defer to the veterans" is an org philosophy issue.

And you simply can't make these assertions based on one game. If Suzuki is still starting two out of three games in July and is rarely removed from games in key pinch-hitting situations, then I'll be right with you, pitchfork in hand.

 

Exactly when did the spirit of statfreak possess you, Dave?

[DaveW]

 

And you simply can't make these assertions based on one game. If Suzuki is still starting two out of three games in July and is rarely removed from games in key pinch-hitting situations, then I'll be right with you, pitchfork in hand.

 

 

It's not based on one game, it's based on all of 2015 as well.

I'm not going to dignify your last sentence with a response, that is clear trolling and you should be "above" that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's not based on one game, it's based on all of 2015 as well.

2015 had Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer as the second "best" catching options. I need more than one game of data before making an assertion that nothing has changed.

[DaveW]

 

then I'll be right with you, pitchfork in hand.

Nobody has any pitchforks out.

The Twins played their first game of the season yesterday, this is a Twins message board, the Suzuki PH question is a legitimate question and nobody is "stepping out of bounds" Clearly you don't think game one matters, which is fine, but several of us would like to discuss the Suzuki PH question. If you think its dumb/doesn't matter then feel free to just ignore this thread, or create a rule that we can't discuss individual plays during a specific baseball game.

[DaveW]

 

 

2015 had Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer as the second "best" catching options. I need more than one game of data before making an assertion that nothing has changed.

Fryer/Herrmann were as good as Suzuki defensively, and I'm not suggesting that you needed to use either guy to PH for Suzuki. You had other options throughout the year to PH (and then the catcher replaces them) Vargas, Santana, Nunez, Hicks etc come to mind.

[alskntwnsfn]

Here's my (over?)reaction... as much as we all want Buxton to succeed - he clearly is not ready. He especially had several very hittable pitches during that AB with a guy on second (with either one or no outs... pitches that were made to go to RF). Can't believe I'm saying this, but given his uninspiring ST and how overmatched he was last year... maybe some AAA time wouldn't have been so bad. I dunno, at some point he has to learn to hit ML pitching, but he has a long way to go and he still seems very lost at the plate. 

 

The rest of the lineup didn't fare much better though. I watched most of the game and the pitchers Baltimore trotted out there didn't look all that special for the most part, so the fact that we only managed 2 runs is very concerning. The bullpen depth definitely came into play last night, and maybe we win that game if we had one or two more pitchers who were better than Fien. Other than Fien and Jepsen, the pitchers threw very well and held a tough lineup scoreless. It's not that we don't have any good RPs, it's just do we have enough? I think in a playoff caliber bullpen, a pitcher like Jepsen would be slotted down in Fien's spot. 

 

It's only one game, but this game had it all for the critics. Poor plate discipline, Buxton flailing, an exposed bullpen, and Sano failing to make a play in RF that led to runs (admittedly, that would have been a tough ball to catch but still). 

 

I've actually come around to the idea of Sano in RF, as a placeholder until Mauer's contract is up and he can slide over to 1B or DH. This route or trading Plouffe and dealing with a downgrade in 3B defense is probably a toss up (RC/RS wise)... but the unaddressed bullpen issues have stung us already. We are going to win some and lose some this year, as will every team, but it's what they do with 10-15 games that determines whether you're in the playoffs or not. Win 10-15 "extra" close games and they're in, lose them and they're out. If we want to make the playoffs this year, last night's game is EXACTLY the type of games they need to win. Hopefully it doesn't become a common occurrence. 

[Willihammer]

With a lefthander on the mound in the 9th (Britton) it doesn't make much sense to me to put in an ice cold Arcia. Especially one who throws 97. That's as close to an an automatic strikeout as it gets.

With Zuke you have little chance of a game winning HR but much better chance of gaining a baserunner, where you can then plug in Santana to pinch run.

[DaveW]

 

Here's my (over?)reaction... as much as we all want Buxton to be succeed - he clearly is not ready. He especially had several very hittable pitches during that AB with a guy on second (with either one or no outs... pitches that were made to go to RF). Can't believe I'm saying this, but given his uninspiring ST and how overmatched he was last year... maybe some AAA time wouldn't have been so bad. I dunno, at some point he has to learn to hit ML pitching, but he has a long way to go and he still seems very lost at the plate. 

 

The rest of the lineup didn't fare much better though. I watched most of the game and the pitchers Baltimore trotted out there didn't look all that special for the most part, so the fact that we only managed 2 runs is very concerning. The bullpen depth definitely came into play last night, and maybe we win that game if we had one or two more pitchers who were better than Fien. Other than Fien and Jepsen, the pitchers threw very well and held a tough lineup scoreless. It's not that we don't have any good RPs, it's just do we have enough? I think in a playoff caliber bullpen, a pitcher like Jepsen would be slotted down in Fien's spot. 

 

It's only one game, but this game had it all for the critics. Poor plate discipline, Buxton flailing, an exposed bullpen, and Sano failing to make a play in RF that led to runs (admittedly, that would have been a tough ball to catch but still). 

 

I've actually come around to the idea of Sano in RF, as a placeholder until Mauer's contract is up and he can slide over to 1B or DH. This route or trading Plouffe and dealing with a downgrade in 3B defense is probably a toss up (RC/RS wise)... but the unaddressed bullpen issues have stung us already. We are going to win some and lose some this year, as will every team, but it's what they do with 10-15 games that determines whether you're in the playoffs or not. Win 10-15 "extra" close games and they're in, lose them and they're out. If we want to make the playoffs this year, last night's game is EXACTLY the type of games they need to win. Hopefully it doesn't become a common occurrence. 

P.S Free Joe Dillon

 

 

 

Well said and I agree 100% across the board. I know people were trying to find positives in Buxton's game "He didn't swing at a ball in the dirt" "He fouled off some pitches" but come on, 0 for 3 with 3 strikeouts against mediocre pitching is what it is. I agree that he could have used some time in AAA, but the Twins more or less painted themselves into this corner when they traded Hicks/Didn't sign any OF.

 

FWIW Span a guy that many people suggested the Twins look at getting went 2 for 4 with a bomb yesterday for his first game as a Giant.

[DaveW]

 

 

With a lefthander on the mound in the 9th (Britton) it doesn't make much sense to me to put in an ice cold Arcia. Especially one who throws 97. That's as close to an an automatic strikeout as it gets.

With Zuke you have little chance of a game winning HR but much better chance of gaining a baserunner, where you can then plug in Santana to pinch run.

The Arcia suggestion was for the 7th inning situation.

In the 9th inning you bring in Santana or Nunez, then if they bring in a RHP to "counter act" you bring in Arcia at that point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I've actually come around to the idea of Sano in RF, as a placeholder until Mauer's contract is up and he can slide over to 1B or DH. This route or trading Plouffe and dealing with a downgrade in 3B defense is probably a toss up (RC/RS wise)... but the unaddressed bullpen issues have stung us already. We are going to win some and lose some this year, as will every team, but it's what they do with 10-15 games that determines whether you're in the playoffs or not. Win 10-15 "extra" close games and they're in, lose them and they're out. If we want to make the playoffs this year, last night's game is EXACTLY the type of games they need to win. Hopefully it doesn't become a common occurrence. 

I'm not even sure it's the unaddressed bullpen issues that bother me (though it irked me that Ryan didn't pick up anyone this offseason).

 

It's Casey Fien. Casey Fien bothers me. I don't understand why they kept him around. It's one of the more irritating aspects of Ryan's bullpen roster management. The Twins almost always start the season with one guy on the roster who infuriates the fan base because he's varying shades of terrible and everyone saw it coming.

[Vanimal46]

 

With a lefthander on the mound in the 9th (Britton) it doesn't make much sense to me to put in an ice cold Arcia. Especially one who throws 97. That's as close to an an automatic strikeout as it gets.

With Zuke you have little chance of a game winning HR but much better chance of gaining a baserunner, where you can then plug in Santana to pinch run.

I agree with you that throwing in Arcia in the 9th wasn't the right move. And maybe that is what Molitor was thinking - to have Santana come in and pinch run if Suzuki got on. Personally I would have rather saw Santana or Nunez at the plate instead of being a potential pinch runner... 

[gocgo]

I blame this loss on me.  I turned off the TV after the 2nd rain delay and had to go to my kids baseball practice.  I wasn't there for my team.  It's all connected!  I could have willed this team to a win and I failed miserably.  It won't happen again.  Let's move on to the next game.  I promise to be better.

[d-mac]

 

Sorta.

Yes, I know it's one game but there are a few thoughts I have and I'm guessing most other people share:

 

-If Jepsen regresses, this bullpen is in even more trouble than we thought.

 

-Fien, 3.87 xFIP as a RP, that is pretty poor. His pitches looked terrible today and his k rate has taken a nose dive the last two seasons, if he struggles over the first couple weeks I hope the Twins don't hesitate moving on from him.

 

-Buxton looked better, but still looks completely over-matched at the plate. He is there defensively no doubt, but I worry about how long it will take for him to become even a .250 hitter. (I think he will be fine overall, I just worry it won't happen until July or so)

 

-Mauer looks better than he has in a couple years, hopefully big things ahead for him.

 

-Suzuki came up against a RHP in the 7th inning down 2-1, and once again in the 9th inning against a RHP. One of the big reasons the Twins went out and traded for Murphy was having a 2nd catcher who could both handle the defense behind the dish, as well as offensively. Why not PH for Suzuki in either case? Santana has been hitting lights out in ST and should have gotten a shot in the 9th, Arcia needs a chance to prove himself and the opp in the 7th would have been a perfect chance.

 

-This game never should have started when it did, to have it go a quick two innings, and then a long rain delay? Someone screwed up no doubt.

 

-Sano didn't cost them anything serious in the field in this game, but his routes were....interesting, it's going to be a work in progress.

 

-Escobar looked great.

 

Pretty much sorta the same observations I had. I think catcher and CF are going to be a black holes offensively this year. Suzuki is washed up both at the plate and behind it. Murphy needs to be starting 2/3rds of the games. Buxton still needs more time in AAA. The Twins are repeating the smae mistakes with him that they did with Hicks. I think Fien is a weak link in the bullpen. His velo readings were down 2mph from where I remembered him last year. 

 

I am a big believer in Escobar at short. I think he'll surprise and be one of the better SS in the AL this year. Also, I think Park will transition nicely, he's had good at bats, time and time again. 

[d-mac]

 

Pretty much sorta the same observations I had. I think catcher and CF are going to be a black holes offensively this year. Suzuki is washed up both at the plate and behind it. Murphy needs to be starting 2/3rds of the games. Buxton still needs more time in AAA. The Twins are repeating the smae mistakes with him that they did with Hicks. I think Fien is a weak link in the bullpen. His velo readings were down 2mph from where I remembered him last year. 

 

I am a big believer in Escobar at short. I think he'll surprise and be one of the better SS in the AL this year. Also, I think Park will transition nicely, he's had good at bats, time and time again. 

 

Also, Mauer has continued his improvement from spring into the regular season. i believed in him so much a used a late round draft pick on him in my fantasy league. 

[Willihammer]

 

The Arcia suggestion was for the 7th inning situation.

In the 9th inning you bring in Santana or Nunez, then if they bring in a RHP to "counter act" you bring in Arcia at that point.

These guys had been sitting around in the rain for what, 8-9 hours by that point? I mean even on a good day these two are marginal upgrades over Suzuki (if any). In those conditions, I think staying with the warm body is the right call. YMMV.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also, I think Park will transition nicely, he's had good at bats, time and time again. 

I'm coming around on the Park signing. He's showing a level of plate maturity I hoped, but did not expect, to see.

[USAFChief]

"Here's my (over?)reaction... as much as we all want Buxton to succeed - he clearly is not ready. He especially had several very hittable pitches during that AB with a guy on second"

 

Concur, in a larger sense.

 

What concerned me most about Buxton last year, and in an extremely small sample yesterday, wasn't so much the K's, or the tendency to not recognize breaking pitches.  It's his inability to do much with hittable pitches inside the strike zone.

 

So far, he rarely makes loud contact.  

 

Lots of young hitters come up to the big leagues, and often get fooled at the plate, being made to look foolish at times.  But they also show the ability to punish pitches that should be hit.  Buxton simply hasn't shown the ability to do that.  I hope it changes, but so far, he's not shown the talent to hit at the big league level.

[SirLoin]

 

Isn't this the over reaction thread?

https://youtu.be/xAZU6DYwTDM

 

[Craig Arko]

Not bad.

 

I was thinking more like this:

 

 

Overreaction is serious business.

[DaveW]

 

https://youtu.be/xAZU6DYwTDM

Replace Wild Thing was Casey Fien and you might be onto something

[bluechipper]

The Buxton needs some AAA time reaction is way over the top. He's usually taken some time to get going, and is pretty streaky. There's little doubt for me that he will start hitting soon.

[d-mac]

 

1. This was maybe the most encouraging thing for me, if Mauer can get back to a .800+ OPS type guy (or even better) this team will do sooooo much better, especially if he is hitting 2nd and can get to a .310 BA .400 OBP. That just sets the table so much for Sano and company. (Which also forces pitchers to pitch to Sano)

 

2.Yeah, May is the real deal. I still would like to see him get a real shot at the rotation to see if he can be the "real deal" in the rotation as a solid #2/#3 type. If he fails, then put him back in the pen where you know he is a stud. Part of me worries that he would be our best SP on the team currently and we aren't using him to his full potential currently.

 

3. Rosario looks poised to take a step forward, but his approach against lefties needs to improve if he wants to go from a solid player to a very good/great player. Plenty of time of course, but any improvement in his patience/eye will pay off big time for him IMO.

 

4. Yeah, Escobar is quickly becoming one of my favorite players, he might not ever be an "all star" in this league, but he might become the Twins best regular SS since Greg Gagne. Escobar  may even be able to exceed him. (Hopefully in world series titles as well!)

 

5. Sano isn't going to be Manny Ramierez/Hanley "awful" in RF, because Sano actually gives a damn, I just think him being average is even a stretch, which honestly isn't a knock on him at all. Hopefully he can be "somewhat below average" instead of "eeeesh"

 

6. Yeah, Plouffe is a perfectly solid player who has a nice long career ahead of him in this league. As a solid average to above average third baseman depending on the season.

The question becomes though: should he be blocking Sano at 3rd base?

1. Yeah, definitely.

 

2. Totally agree. May is probably the best pitcher on the 25 man roster.

 

3. If only he walked just a little bit more... But seriously, with that BB/K rate he should be a (negative) regression candidate, right? But where would he regress? I can see him hitting for less power this year. But his BABIP numbers weren't out of line from what we'd expect based on his minor league career. He didn't walk much, but his K% wasn't that much more than league average where it'd be a red flag.

 

-Sort of off topic, but not really, I'm kind of annoyed with how suboptimal the line-up construction is this year. Sabermetrically, the #3 hitter is the least import of the first six spots in the line-up because it is the most likely comes up with 2 outs and rarely leads off an inning. Thus, it should be occupied by a high slugging, lowish OBP player. Ideally, we'd have a pure lead-off hitter and Dozier would be a perfect #3 hitter, but since we don't have a better lead-off candidate, Rosario is the next best option. Conversely, the #5 hitter is the most likely to lead off an inning (other than the lead-off batter), thus it should follow that a high-er OBP hitter should be in that spot- in-other-words, NOT ROSARIO. Sano is a pure #4 hitter. The line-up should go: Dozier-Mauer-Rosario-Sano-Plouffe-Park-Escobar. I know, Sano-Plouffe-Park is very righthanded, but that only matters maybe on average once a game. And isn't that why we have Arcia on the bench? We're giving up runs the other 3-4 times through the order.

 

4. I'm a huge Escobar fan. 

 

5/6. I think Plouffe in right, Sano at 3rd would be better defensively. Sano would be less bad at 3rd than RF and Plouffe would be superior to Sano in RF. Plouffe has averaged over 3 fWAR the past two seasons, which means he's an above average major leaguer. The problem is third is loaded by historical standards in baseball right now. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I agree on most points but have no issue letting Suzuki hit. He's a contact guy and the Twins needed contact. It wasn't a terrible decision.

Agreed... he gave them exactly what they needed in that situation and was the right guy for the job there. Doing what needs to be done with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs is sadly lost at this point. 

[sane16]

Suzuki is one of the worst hitters in the game. There is no excuse for not pinch hitting. He is terrible. Why have arcia on the roster?

He's out of options....

[jokin]

 

Pressly looked really good. His pitches had some good movement and he really hit his spots. Hope that wasn't just a good night.

 

Looks finally fully healthy for the first time in quite a while. Anxious to see if he can repeat this a few times coming up, it will make Fien ever more DFA-able.

[sane16]

winning is over-rated.

[/quote

 

Musical post from DON (I ain't no) HO

 

Tiny bobbles

In the game

Make me bitter

Make them look lame

 

Tiny bobbles

Make me shake all over

With a feeling that I'm gonna

Yell at whoever's to blame.....