Keith Law Ranks Twins Minor League System #3, Seven in Top 100

[Seth Stohs]

I think the days of Twins fans complaining about Keith Law "Hating" the Twins should be over (whether or not it ever should have started may be up for debate). 

 

Today, he posted his ranking of the minor league systems in baseball. It's behind a paywall, so I won't post the whole thing, but he has some really comments on the Twins. Said 7 players in their top 20. Only the Braves and Dodgers rank ahead of them. 

 

 

If you'd asked me to just wildly guess at these rankings before I started the research process that goes into them, I might have pegged Minnesota 10 spots too low, but this system is stacked.

 

[gunnarthor]

Good to know.  I haven't read it but "stacked" sounds about right.  If Jay or Gordon or Park is your 6th best prospect, it's a stacked system.  It's also interesting since Law is usually the low man on Berrios.  

[Guest]

It was good to see confirmation from a national writer of what I think most of us already felt: That, despite the graduations of several players last year, the Twins organization still has some pretty damn good talent in the pipeline.

 

And his admission that he might have initially pegged the Twins 10 spots lower before doing the research COULD reflect the kind of anti-Twins bias that some of us have felt he has reflected somewhat regularly. Credit to him, however, for going ahead and doing the research and being open to convincing himself otherwise.

[Guest]

Speaking of teams, "10 spots lower," than where Law placed the Twins, that #13 spot interestingly is held by the Cardinals, who now will have just 3 players in his top 100. St. Louis has long been held up as an example of a team that has maintained a fully loaded farm even during periods when they've had MLB success and been stuck with low drafting spots. Looks like even the Cards aren't totally immune to the natural cycle other teams fall victim to as they become regular MLB contenders.

 

EDIT: Wow, what was I looking at? Cardinals are actually 19th, not 13th. Point is the same, though.

[alarp33]

Predictions on the 7, in order? 

I'll go with

 

Buxton

Kepler

Berrios

Gordon

Jay

Stewart

Polanco

 

 

I can't remember in the past if he's ranked International rookies, but I highly doubt he includes Park either way

[Mike Sixel]

 

Good to know.  I haven't read it but "stacked" sounds about right.  If Jay or Gordon or Park is your 6th best prospect, it's a stacked system.  It's also interesting since Law is usually the low man on Berrios.  

 

He had Berrios 22 last year.......is that not high enough?

[Mike Sixel]

 

It was good to see confirmation from a national writer of what I think most of us already felt: That, despite the graduations of several players last year, the Twins organization still has some pretty damn good talent in the pipeline.

 

And his admission that he might have initially pegged the Twins 10 spots lower before doing the research COULD reflect the kind of anti-Twins bias that some of us have felt he has reflected somewhat regularly. Credit to him, however, for going ahead and doing the research and being open to convincing himself otherwise.

 

Or it was about graduating Sano.....and not some bias that he doesn't have. 

[TheLeviathan]

I think it should be pointed out that lists like this are about potential and the perception of the potential, not any kind of lock.

 

Using a 19th place finish to knock on the Cardinals is sort of missing the point.  They find lots of ways to improve their club and often find people to produce that aren't making anyone's top 10 list.

 

The Twins do that too, by the way.  Dozier, Perkins, Duffy, etc.  This is great news that there is still a lot of positivity about our future potential, but that's all it really is.

[alarp33]

 

He had Berrios 22 last year.......is that not high enough?

 

He had Berrios #97... maybe you mean in the mid-season update?

[Mike Sixel]

 

He had Berrios #97... maybe you mean in the mid-season update?

 

yes, after the update, when he last ranked players......

[amjgt]

From last year's top 100

 

"I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purpose of this exercise, which means no Jung-Ho Kang this year (among others). I also exclude Cuban players who are considered professional free agents by Major League Baseball by virtue of their experience in Cuba's Serie Nacional de Béisbol. This list excludes Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas, but will consider Cuban players whom MLB treats as amateurs, like Roberto Baldoquin (who just missed this list) and Yoan Lopez."

[gunnarthor]

 

He had Berrios 22 last year.......is that not high enough?

I think you're reading too much into this.  Klaw has always been the low guy on Berrios - hell, he's admitted it in his chats.  Nothing wrong with it.  

[amjgt]

 

Predictions on the 7, in order? 

I'll go with

 

Buxton

Kepler

Berrios

Gordon

Jay

Stewart

Polanco

 

 

I can't remember in the past if he's ranked International rookies, but I highly doubt he includes Park either way

 

I'm going with:

Buxton - 2

Kepler - 18

JO - 19

Jay - 56

Gordon - 78

Gonsalves - 90

Polanco - 92

 

I'm sure he's not in the top 100, but Keith Law has always been on the Vielma bandwagon. Actually, he has probably been driving the bandwagon

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the Law hates the Twins thing goes back maybe 5 years, but I haven't seen much indicating that's true in the last two or three years.

[alarp33]

 

I think the Law hates the Twins thing goes back maybe 5 years, but I haven't seen much indicating that's true in the last two or three years.

 

Sooo - around the time the Twins had a terrible farm system people thought Klaw hated the Twins.  But since their farm system has been good, he's fine?

[Kwak]

Let's see:  Ryan finagles the September lineup to prevent Buxton from playing; causing Buxton to have (one less) too few plate appearances; causing Buxton to maintain his "minor league status"; causing Buxton to continue to be evaluated as a "prospect"; causing Buxton to be rated as the #2 "prospect", causing the Twins minor league system to continue to be very highly "rated" (third); causing the Twins management to proclaim how full is the "pipeline of prospects"; causing TD posters to be giddy with glee and excitement; causing them to give thunderous salutations to the Twins' management; causing everyone to forget that Buxton would be exactly the same player, with the same future even if he had one more PA and the Twins would have had the same team, albeit with  a lesser grade to their minor league system.  EGADS!

[Thrylos]

 

I think the Law hates the Twins thing goes back maybe 5 years, but I haven't seen much indicating that's true in the last two or three years.

 

 

And he was pretty correct in "hating" the Twins' system 5 years ago or so...

[bird]

 

I think it should be pointed out that lists like this are about potential and the perception of the potential, not any kind of lock.

 

Using a 19th place finish to knock on the Cardinals is sort of missing the point.  They find lots of ways to improve their club and often find people to produce that aren't making anyone's top 10 list.

 

The Twins do that too, by the way.  Dozier, Perkins, Duffy, etc.  This is great news that there is still a lot of positivity about our future potential, but that's all it really is.

 

 

That's a good reminder. But look at the landscape from this angle: we may (or may not) get significant contributions from guys like May, Duffey, Arcia, Rosario, Vargas, Meyer, and Santana, and most of these guys didn't get more than a sniff or two of a Top 100 list. But you have to like our odds going forward, given that we also have a whole slew of players who have been ranked up among the top 100 recently: Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Gordon, Jay, Park, Polanco, Stewart, Walker, Gonsalves, Burdi, Thorpe...that's 19 guys right there. Exciting stuff.

[DocBauer]

Predictions on the 7, in order? 

I'll go with

 

Buxton

Kepler

Berrios

Gordon

Jay

Stewart

Polanco

 

 

I can't remember in the past if he's ranked International rookies, but I highly doubt he includes Park either way

Regardless if how you rank them, that is a very nice list! Where is Walker? Or Gonsalves? Or Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, or several other pitchers? And these are guts girl '16 and '17. We aren't even talking guyes in A ball, except for Gordon. This us not a system simply built on 2 great players.

[The Wise One]

 

Speaking of teams, "10 spots lower," than where Law placed the Twins, that #13 spot interestingly is held by the Cardinals, who now will have just 3 players in his top 100. St. Louis has long been held up as an example of a team that has maintained a fully loaded farm even during periods when they've had MLB success and been stuck with low drafting spots. Looks like even the Cards aren't totally immune to the natural cycle other teams fall victim to as they become regular MLB contenders.

 

EDIT: Wow, what was I looking at? Cardinals are actually 19th, not 13th. Point is the same, though.

Wacha, Martinez, Wong, Rosenthal,  Grichuck and Piscotty are all  25 or under.  Siegrist just turned 26. The natural cycle was advanced to the major leagues as quick as possible

[alarp33]

Buxton 2

Berrios 26

Kepler 33

Stewart 53

Jay 61

Polanco 66

Gordon 98

[Mike Sixel]

edit....ninjad by seconds.

[Mike Sixel]

He now sees Gordon as more likely to be average or slightly above average as a SS, not a potential AS.

[nicksaviking]

 

Buxton 2

Berrios 26

Kepler 33

Stewart 53

Jay 61

Polanco 66

Gordon 98

 

I have heard Law defend Stewart multiple times, but wow, I'm pretty shocked he's 53 on his list.

 

That would be great if Law is right about him. At the very least a ranking like this sure doesn't hurt perception if he ended up being part of a trade.

[alarp33]

 

I have heard Law defend Stewart multiple times, but wow, I'm pretty shocked he's 53 on his list.

 

Fans who underrate him are solely looking at his strikeout total.  Not a whole lot of guys throw 96+ and have the size/athleticism to throw 100 pitches a game.  

 

To paraphrase the write-up, Klaw says even if the strikeout totals don't improve a ton, he has an extremely high ceiling

[clutterheart]

 

Fans who underrate him are solely looking at his strikeout total.  Not a whole lot of guys throw 96+ and have the size/athleticism to throw 100 pitches a game.  

 

To paraphrase the write-up, Klaw says even if the strikeout totals don't improve a ton, he has an extremely high ceiling

 

Its not just his SO total,  He has average stats, and average peripheral stats (average is being generous).  Based on his results so far there is very little to hang your hat on.  Most concerning is he seems really hittable despite the reported quality of his pitches. So far he seems like just another guy. 

 

But...Law is good at his job so it does make me more hopeful that Stewart can turn it around.  

 

[alarp33]

 

Its not just his SO total,  He has average stats, and average peripheral stats (average is being generous).  Based on his results so far there is very little to hang your hat on.  Most concerning is he seems really hittable despite the reported quality of his pitches. So far he seems like just another guy. 

 

But...Law is good at his job so it does make me more hopeful that Stewart can turn it around.  

 

Which stats? He keeps the ball in the park and had an absurd 59% ground ball rate.  

 

I'll take the professional scouts opinion on his stuff over the numbers (which aren't even that bad other than the low K rate) for someone who has only been in pro ball for 2+ years, and spent much of his time in high school working on a different sport

[Seth Stohs]

 

Fans who underrate him are solely looking at his strikeout total.  Not a whole lot of guys throw 96+ and have the size/athleticism to throw 100 pitches a game.  

 

To paraphrase the write-up, Klaw says even if the strikeout totals don't improve a ton, he has an extremely high ceiling

 

He's intriguing because he still has a long ways to go. Reports I had on him said that once every great while in Ft. Myers he would hit 95-96, but most of the time he was 90-93. His mechanics need some work. From inning to inning, his fastball can go from 90 one inning to 94 the next. His slider is good. HE has all the tools, no question about that. And, the reports continue to say that he does not give up much hard contact at all, which is illustrated by that 59% GB rate someone mentioned. 

 

I couldn't have him this high, but it is important that numbers in the lower levels shouldn't be used as much as tools and such. Especially at such a young age. HE's got a lot of developing to do, and there is certainly still a lot of hope.

 

Even among scouts, you'll hear vastly different reports on him, so Law likes what he's seen. I'd talked to a few others that really like what they see. And, I've talked to an equal amount that think he's so far off mechanically and stuff wise. 

 

That's what makes this fun!

[alarp33]

 

He's intriguing because he still has a long ways to go. Reports I had on him said that once every great while in Ft. Myers he would hit 95-96, but most of the time he was 90-93. His mechanics need some work. From inning to inning, his fastball can go from 90 one inning to 94 the next. His slider is good. HE has all the tools, no question about that. And, the reports continue to say that he does not give up much hard contact at all, which is illustrated by that 59% GB rate someone mentioned. 

 

I couldn't have him this high, but it is important that numbers in the lower levels shouldn't be used as much as tools and such. Especially at such a young age. HE's got a lot of developing to do, and there is certainly still a lot of hope.

 

Even among scouts, you'll hear vastly different reports on him, so Law likes what he's seen. I'd talked to a few others that really like what they see. And, I've talked to an equal amount that think he's so far off mechanically and stuff wise. 

 

That's what makes this fun!

 

It's why I don't put a ton of stock into minor league stats, pitchers especially.  Is he working on mechanics, the change-up, command, etc?  If his only goal was to rear back and blow it past everyone, I bet his strikeout total would be a bit higher, but would that make him better in the long term?  

 

I just think its so premature to write off this type of athlete, who has such great stuff, a little more than two years into his pro career (and 2+ years removed from being a QB)

 

 

[gunnarthor]

Can anyone paraphrase what he thinks of Berrios, Kepler and Polanco?  I'm curious if he still has concerns about Berrios' height, Kepler being a "tweener" and if Polanco can stay at short.