Trade Span or Trade Willingham?

[diehardtwinsfan]

With some decent starting pitching, there's 0 reason to think this team won't be somewhat competitve next season, at the very least enough to keep TF full. If you get blown away for both of them, obviously deal them as the Hicks/Benson/Arcia group will likely replace their production by 2014. That said, I'd go into the deadline planning on trading one. I suspect Span will net the most value, and he's probably the most replacable as well, so my intention would be to deal Denard. A 2013 OF of Willingham/Revere/Parmalee should produce on the offensive side of things. Sans Revere, it might be a bit weak defensively.

[70charger]

Other things to consider:

Trading Willingham now sends a bad message to other FA's we want to attract. Basically, we're saying that if you perform well but the team struggles, we're going to send you out immediately. Why would anyone want to be in that situation? People like to play for a contender, but they also like to not switch teams every 5-6 months.

I think this is pretty important.

[jorgenswest]

This is exactly the right time to trade Willingham. He is healthy and hitting. His value will never be greater than it is this July. He is very likely to have regressed or have health trouble this time next year.

[Top Gun]

I think everyone is trade happy.

[kab21]

Why not say free Agency! There is 25 million coming off the books next year. The Twins are no longer a small market Franchise. If you are not sure, go to Target Field and check out the prices.

How much better would the Twins be with 1-2 Mark Buehrle's or CJ Wilson's? They signed for 4/48 and 5/75 and that is the type of starter the Twins can buy in FA. They won't go after Hamels/Greinke.

 

Trade both of them if the offer is good enough.

[Guest USAFChief]

How much better would the Twins be with 1-2 Mark Buehrle's or CJ Wilson's? They signed for 4/48 and 5/75 and that is the type of starter the Twins can buy in FA. They won't go after Hamels/Greinke.

 

Trade both of them if the offer is good enough.

Wilson is 9-5 with 118 innings of 2.43 ball.

 

Buehrle is 9-8 with 120 innings of 3.13 ball.

 

Yeah...they wouldn't have made the Twins any better.

 

Side note: Liriano leads the Twins starters in IP, BTW, and is 2nd in ERA, even with his horrendous start.

 

No room for him either, on this team I guess.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How much better would the Twins be with 1-2 Mark Buehrle's or CJ Wilson's? They signed for 4/48 and 5/75 and that is the type of starter the Twins can buy in FA. They won't go after Hamels/Greinke.

 

Trade both of them if the offer is good enough.

CJ Wilson is the type of guy the Twins need to target (though he was a little on the pricey side). I think the Twins' success will be from signing two second tier pitchers for the price of a Greinke or Hamels (assuming the good Greinke hits the market, not the bad one).

 

Pitching is too volatile for a mid-market team to dump $120m+ on one guy.

[kab21]

Wilson is 9-5 with 118 innings of 2.43 ball.

 

Buehrle is 9-8 with 120 innings of 3.13 ball.

 

Yeah...they wouldn't have made the Twins any better.

 

Side note: Liriano leads the Twins starters in IP, BTW, and is 2nd in ERA, even with his horrendous start.

 

No room for him either, on this team I guess.

They've had a nice first half but in the end they are 3.50-4.00 ERA pitchers. The Twins are 12 games under .500 after 89 games. Even if they signed both they would still be under .500 and these contracts are going to look really bad when each of these pitchers is 37. That's the problem with FA.

[Mike Sixel]

Umm, an ERA of 3.5-4 is well better than the median....those are valuable pitchers.

[kab21]

Umm, an ERA of 3.5-4 is well better than the median....those are valuable pitchers.

Of course they are valuable to have but you need to think further about this.

 

the Twins are likely to finish 20 games below .500. Even if the Twins signed both of them would they make up the difference?

 

What happens when they turn into Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett at the end of the contract (or beginning?)? At that point the Twins won't have any payroll flexibility with 50M tied up between Mauer and two 35+ yr pitchers. That is a recipe for long-term disaster just to battle back to .500.

[Mike Sixel]

By your logic, you never sign a free agent, as none ever take you over the line. Will these two alone fix the twins? No. But you need to add players. And there are nit enough in the minors to do that. And if you want quality, you have to overpay in terms of years. That is the market.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I'd trade Span because the Twins need Willingham's power. Revere and Span are both really Centerfielders and it makes sense to have one. Mastroianni would move into a starting role. Darin's production resembles Denard Span's more than Willingham's and I think he makes the loss very minimal.

[Winston Smith]

Is contraction still an option?

[Shane Wahl]

How much better would the Twins be with 1-2 Mark Buehrle's or CJ Wilson's? They signed for 4/48 and 5/75 and that is the type of starter the Twins can buy in FA. They won't go after Hamels/Greinke.

 

Trade both of them if the offer is good enough.

Buehlre's most recent contract was 4/58, actually. It was early-ish in the off-season and a strangely high price, I think. I was thinking 4/44 for him.

 

But yes, technically, the Twins could sign a very good pitcher for $15 million and a good pitcher for $10 million. I imagine that only one of those happens (and frankly, let's hope for that). Trading in the off-season for a guy still in his arbitration years like Clayton Richard or a similar type can be a better alternative to signing the Jason Marquis kind. Richard would probably cost $10 million for two years before he becomes a free agent.

 

I am sure there are other names like that too. He was just the one I know.

[Shane Wahl]

Do people not realize that trading away your MLB assets to make up for MLB liabilities leaves the team right the hell where they were!

[scottz]

To answer the question as posed, Span - even though I'm a big fan - for no additional reasons not already stated earlier.

[DPJ]

Do people not realize that trading away your MLB assets to make up for MLB liabilities leaves the team right the hell where they were!

Exactly, they're a garbage team with these valuable assets, why not trade them cause you won't get any better while they're under contract and get some prospects that can help hopefully once they're good again.

[PseudoSABR]

Exactly, they're a garbage team with these valuable assets, why not trade them cause you won't get any better while they're under contract and get some prospects that can help hopefully once they're good again.

Supposedly the team couldn't compete after 2008 either, but they managed two more playoff runs in 09 and 10. It's not impossible to see the team competing next year and especially the year after. The lineup even sans Span or Willingham will be able to produce runs. Of course, out ability to compete depends on acquiring durable top-of-the-rotation starters, but we might get that cheaply by resigning Baker, and developing a healthy Gibson. Hendricks and Diamond can probably fill out the rotation. This is a rather glib sketch, but the Twins being competitive over the next two seasons isn't as far fetched as you're making it.

 

That said, if TR gets blown away by offers for either or both, he should take the deals. As others have said, Span is more replaceable, so I'd rather trade him and keep Willingham.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Supposedly the team couldn't compete after 2008 either, but they managed two more playoff runs in 09 and 10. It's not impossible to see the team competing next year and especially the year after. The lineup even sans Span or Willingham will be able to produce runs. Of course, out ability to compete depends on acquiring durable top-of-the-rotation starters, but we might get that cheaply by resigning Baker, and developing a healthy Gibson. Hendricks and Diamond can probably fill out the rotation. This is a rather glib sketch, but the Twins being competitive over the next two seasons isn't as far fetched as you're making it.

 

That said, if TR gets blown away by offers for either or both, he should take the deals. As others have said, Span is more replaceable, so I'd rather trade him and keep Willingham.

The no good liberal hippie communist basically said what I've been trying to say for three pages. I'm just going to cut and paste his response from here on out.

[kab21]

By your logic, you never sign a free agent, as none ever take you over the line. Will these two alone fix the twins? No. But you need to add players. And there are nit enough in the minors to do that. And if you want quality, you have to overpay in terms of years. That is the market.

The logic is that rebuilding thru FA is a terrible option. There is only so much FA can do for a 65-70 win team and you can't just throw dollars at it to fix it without affecting the future. FA makes sense when you can spend like the Yankees, when you keep contracts small/short (the Willingham/Doumit/Carroll contracts) or when you are an 85 win team needing that final push.

[TheLeviathan]

The lineup even sans Span or Willingham will be able to produce runs.

Except that we're a middle-of-the-pack offense with Willingham having a career year, Mauer at full health, and surprising production from Revere and Plouffe. I think we have a tendency to inflate the perception of the offense in part because of how bad the pitching is. They appear better than they really are by comparison with the team's weak points when it really is quite average even with a lot of things breaking right. I don't think it's impossible for this team to contend, but if you can get good offers on these guys (read: not single A flyers, but guys who can contribute and are talented) - then you deal them. And I wouldn't be stubborn about it either.

 

Also just to note - I agree Span is more replaceable on our roster, but his contract is very valuable and his skillset is more rare around the league than many think. We seem to be tossing the idea of moving him around pretty lightly on the basis of a few hundred Ben Revere at-bats while simultaneously ignoring Willingham's last 5 years of injuries and production. At least that's how it is coming off.

[Shane Wahl]

Can peeps take a full, wholistic view of this!? Trading your MLB assets for MLB liabilities doesn't make the MLB team better. I am not one to throw the 2013 season away. Sorry. Hell, outside of the Baker injury and the complete failure of Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis, this season wouldn't have been lost either.

 

So, there are a few things to do. A: Not throw away this rather productive offense comprised of players all young enough to be relevant through at least 2014 (and Willingham-of-the-future haters need to recognize that 2011 and 2012 have meant significant increases in production . . . and his TF performance is very good . . . no DOMINANT). And Denard Span WITH Revere makes for a great 1-2 punch. Great. There are not that many teams who actually can produce 1-7 like this team can no. Why on earth would you sell some of that for AA pitching prospects?

 

B: Sign two pitchers and spend the damn money. Justin Morneau is most likely not coming back after next season, or if he is, it will be for less money. Nick Blackburn's stupid contract is finally done after next season. The Twins can spend 25 million on pitching for 2013 and see a decrease in payroll in 2014! That is important. They could go back to 2011 payroll numbers in 2013 and basically back to 2012 payroll numbers in 2014. And certainly Willingham, Span and others could be traded either at the deadline next year or in the offseason.

 

C: Trade Liriano or offer him the $12 million and hope that he declines so they get the picks. He will get the Twins something valuable in A+ at least in a trade.

 

D: The misery of the Twins system with regard to SP prospects is seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. Gibson and Stuifbergen are back pitching. Bromberg is working it out. Hendriks is dominating AAA. Hopefully Wimmers is viable in 2013 at some point (any update?). Hermsen is another interesting possibilty. Rochester 2013 might have a starting rotation (of 6 candidates) at the beginning of the season of Hendriks, Gibson, Bromberg, Stuifbergen, Wimmers, and Hermsen (assuming some FA signings). That's vastly different than Walters, DeVries, and Deduno.

 

E: There are plenty of at bats between RF, LF, 1B, C, and DH for Revere, Willingham, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit and X current prospect (Parmelee, Herrmann, Arcia, Benson, Hicks).

 

F: Stop nay-saying. Good god.

[TheLeviathan]

Sign two pitchers and spend the damn money.

Well jeez, if I knew it was that easy.....

 

Sometimes you simply don't have enough major league talent to compete and holding out hope of multiple significant free agents signings to fix that is a bleak/foolish one at best. When that time comes and you can get good value in trades that will align young talent outside your system (pitching) with what you have already (bats) - then you do that. The old saying of "one step back to take two steps forward" is the idea.

[Shane Wahl]

Well jeez, if I knew it was that easy.....

 

Sometimes you simply don't have enough major league talent to compete and holding out hope of multiple significant free agents signings to fix that is a bleak/foolish one at best. When that time comes and you can get good value in trades that will align young talent outside your system (pitching) with what you have already (bats) - then you do that. The old saying of "one step back to take two steps forward" is the idea.

Why don't you actually respond to the full post instead of quoting one sentence?

[TheLeviathan]

Why don't you actually respond to the full post instead of quoting one sentence?

Because it was far too long to take point by point. The current offense is average. It won't be getting any better in the near future (2013) without outside help. The pitching is awful and it has even more limited options inside the organization for help.

 

So trade some of what you have in current assets that will be replaced internally by 2013/2014 for help in the areas the organization has dire need of (middle infield and pitching) for that same time frame. You can call it "throwing away" 2013 but if you're moving in the direction of a plan you can excuse non-contention. The absolute worst thing you can do is be a bad team (like this one) and think relying on free agency alone can fix your ills.

[Shane Wahl]

Because it was far too long to take point by point. The current offense is average. It won't be getting any better in the near future (2013) without outside help. The pitching is awful and it has even more limited options inside the organization for help.

 

So trade some of what you have in current assets that will be replaced internally by 2013/2014 for help in the areas the organization has dire need of (middle infield and pitching) for that same time frame. You can call it "throwing away" 2013 but if you're moving in the direction of a plan you can excuse non-contention. The absolute worst thing you can do is be a bad team (like this one) and think relying on free agency alone can fix your ills.

The current offense is not average, at least not 1-7.

 

What I think a lot of people are not realizing is that adding 1-2 top-line pitchers (say a 1 and a 3) this year wouldn't mean much more than 6 wins or so, but doing so with the potential rotation next year means 10-12 wins total. A full usage of Revere, Plouffe and figuring out another roster spot for an offensive contributor will mean 2-3 more wins.

 

When you don't respond in full and just nit-pick, it just isn't going to work for me. I am not going to take you seriously.

 

Also, trading Willingham and Span, given their contracts, in 2013 is going to bring back more than they are right now. So there's that (only assuming that two OFs out of Hicks, Benson, and Arcia are ready).

[TheLeviathan]

The current offense is not average, at least not 1-7.

 

Shall I post the current standing of the Twins offense or are you capable of checking that yourself?

 

What I think a lot of people are not realizing is that adding 1-2 top-line pitchers (say a 1 and a 3).

 

Are we shelling out 200+ million for this or just using your proposal in the other thread to throw AAA filler at adding quality talent? At some point, being realistic is pretty important to being taken seriously as well. Your entire post hinged on the claim we can just add a 1 and a 3 without giving up any major league talent - so presumably by trade or free agency. That's, um, a rather ridiculous suggestion.

[PseudoSABR]

This average offense has been 7th to 6th in WAR in all of MLB since the beginning of June. Yes, small sample size, but that sample size also has Plouffe and Revere playing everyday. Are we the bottom fifth offense of April/May? No. But we're probably not quite as good as lately either, but there's reason to believe we'll be top 10 (a top third in league/all of baseball), which I suppose could be construed to be average, save that we hit in a pitcher's park. Our offense need only be 'statistically' average if our pitching talent is actually average to compete (thanks AL Central!), because of our home park. Having a statically average (or rather top third) offense in Target Field is a boon, any way you cut it.

 

The Twins would be stupid not to capitalize on the offense in 2013 and 2014.

[kryptik]

No point in going crazy this summer about immediate fixes. All the assets we have now should be more valuable next year's trade deadline, which is when we'll hopefully be either making a run or going into full scale fire sale mode. Either way we are going to keep dragging along this season and net ourselves some good draft picks in all likelihood which can't hurt. I don't think this team is as far out of contending as many seem to think, but at some point we are going to have to refocus the organizations' pitching philosophy to fit Target Field. We need some top of the rotation talent to be competitive from FA and I'm confident the farm can fill in the holes well.

[TheLeviathan]

This average offense has been 7th to 6th in WAR in all of MLB since the beginning of June. Yes, small sample size, but that sample size also has Plouffe and Revere playing everyday. Are we the bottom fifth offense of April/May? No. But we're probably not quite as good as lately either, but there's reason to believe we'll be top 10 (a top third in league/all of baseball), which I suppose could be construed to be average.

WAR seems to be an odd stat to choose to measure this. I can't find a site that lets me order team stats in such a way, but by OPS and runs scored this team over the course of the entire season has been average. Could they be slightly above average going forward....sure, but there are plenty of reasons to question the last month and a half as sustainable.

 

Even if this offense can be around 10th in the league, it's still a razor thin margin of error going forward to be an average hitting and average pitching team. And that's if we can actually rely on FA and returning injured players to boost our pitching in 2013 to average. Worse yet, we'd be electing to take that slim chance with no margin for error at the expense of an opportunity now to utilize very marketable talent that we could deal to help reduce our future organizational weak points. That trade-off doesn't seem worth it. (But again, I'm not saying dump just to dump. The offers for guys like Span and Hammer need to address need with legit talent)