Article: The Case For Signing Antonio Bastardo Long-Term

[Seth Stohs]

Earlier today, I wrote an article highlighting why I don’t think signing left-handed reliever Antonio Bastardo long-term makes much sense for the Twins. Now it’s time to take the other side of the coin and look at the case for the Twins locking him up to a long-term deal. After reading each, you can make up your own mind.There were a couple of primary reason for why the Twins should be cautious about signing Antonio Bastardo to a long-term deal. They include:

 

1.) He walks a ton.

2.) He’s been inconsistent (as are most relievers)

3.) The Twins have a ton of arms that could potentially be ready anytime from Opening Day through the middle of the 2017 season.

4.) The reality is that if he’s so great, someone would have given him the same three year, $18 million deal that Tony Sipp got. Right? (or maybe the other 29 teams are wrong too?)

 

But there are several reasons that the Twins should strongly consider signing the hard-throwing left-hander to a multi-year free agent contract. It doesn’t make the above reasons wrong, but there are reasons to believe that he could really help the Twins bullpen for a couple of years.

 

First and foremost, as much as I love to tout the minor leaguers and believe that a good organization needs to build from within, counting on minor leaguers before they get to the big leagues is risky as well. Signing relievers to free agent contracts (which, by definition, is a huge risk), but so is relying solely on internal options.

 

As much as I believe in prospects like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Mason Melotakis, Taylor Rogers and others throughout the system, the reality is that not all prospects make it and become what we think and hope they will.

 

Twins pitchers and particularly the bullpen need more strikeouts. Antonio Bastardo can get strikeouts. As many walks as he has, he has a lot more strikeouts. His strikeout rates since 2010 have been 12.5, 10.9, 14.0, 9.9, 11.4 and 10.0. That is pretty dominant. Though there would be several games where he would frustrate, there would likely be more games when he came into a big situation, he will come through with a big strikeout.

 

Although he does have noticeable splits, he is good against both left-handers and right handers. In 2015, right-handers hit .210/.311/.315 (.626) against him. Lefties hit just .138/.233/.215 (.448) against him.

 

I still contend that a one year deal would be preferable, but again, predicting the future is impossible. Glen Perkins and Trevor May will be back in 2017. Michael Tonkin is out of options this year and we don’t know if he’ll be around after this year. Kevin Jepsen, unless he signs a multi-year deal before the season, is only signed through 2016. In other words, the unpredictability of the future does not only mean the prospects, but some of the veterans.

 

If the back of the Twins bullpen consists for Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May and Antonio Bastardo, that has the potential to be pretty dominant. Also, they will be able to better play matchups.

 

As we know, injuries happen. They are part of the game, so it's another case for depth being important.

 

Finally, if some of those prospects can come up and be the fifth, sixth or seventh bullpen arm, that just extends the strength of the bullpen. As important, it means that starters may only need to provide five or six quality innings before handing things off to the bullpen. The strong bullpen will also be important should the Twins make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

 

So now you’ve seen both sides of the argument. I still personally still prefer a one-year deal, even if it is as much as $7 million over a three year, $15 million. Maybe a nice middle ground would be two years, and $10-11 million. You can even throw an option in there.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

Like I said in your other view, 1 year + mutual option.  I like to hedge my bets when it comes to promoting MiLB relief pitchers.

 

Perkins health is another area of concern.

[Mike Sixel]

Perkins' health is an area of concern. But, no way I do a 3 year deal for a RP.

 

1 year, 7-8MM, team option at same rate

2 year, 10-12 MM

[Vanimal46]

 

Finally, if some of those prospects can come up and be the fifth, sixth or seventh bullpen arm, that just extends the strength of the bullpen. As important, it means that starters may only need to provide five or six quality innings before handing things off to the bullpen. The strong bullpen will also be important should the Twins make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

That would be the ideal scenario for me. I'd rather have more competition from the younger guys for fewer spots in the bullpen, instead of hoping multiple younger guys can step up and take the available openings in the pen. 

That way if one of the minor leaguers has a lost year like Arcia did last year, or injury strikes, The Twins aren't left without a backup plan. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Perkins' health is an area of concern. But, no way I do a 3 year deal for a RP.

 

1 year, 7-8MM, team option at same rate

2 year, 10-12 MM

 

And as I've pointed out, if someone is offering Bastardo three years at this point, he'd take it. No one is... I'd be surprised if he does. At this point, he might be willing to do a one year, prove it deal. I like the idea of an option season just in case. But if he wants a prove-it deal, then he wouldn't want the option. He's want to become a free agent next winter, at 31.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And as I've pointed out, if someone is offering Bastardo three years at this point, he'd take it. No one is... I'd be surprised if he does. At this point, he might be willing to do a one year, prove it deal. I like the idea of an option season just in case. But if he wants a prove-it deal, then he wouldn't want the option. He's want to become a free agent next winter, at 31.

I'm not sure relievers (at least, non-closers) have much interest in a "prove it" deal, even if they are good they aren't going to break the bank trying again next winter.  That said, I also agree he wouldn't have much interest in an option year either.

 

Last we heard, Bastardo wanted 3/18 and apparently that is not happening.  He could still get something like 2/10, 2/12, or 3/13.5, etc., no?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That would be the ideal scenario for me. I'd rather have more competition from the younger guys for fewer spots in the bullpen, instead of hoping multiple younger guys can step up and take the available openings in the pen. 

That way if one of the minor leaguers has a lost year like Arcia did last year, or injury strikes, The Twins aren't left without a backup plan. 

Yes.  Especially since few if any of the younger guys will be ready opening day, and a number of our returning pitchers (Jepsen, May, and Fien) aren't locks to be in our 2017 pen anyway.

[DocBauer]

Both articles and both view points are correct. It's a matter of which perspective makes the most sense to you.

 

Nobody has done the 3 years at $18 yet. Unless someone panics...always a possibility...no one is going to. 3 for $12 ish I would jump on. $15M? Maybe. I would prefer 2 years at $5-6 and a 3rd year performance option.

 

The walks don't scare me much due to his SO rate, unless there is an abnormal number of HR as well. He really helps fill end back of the bullpen. And as you pointed out, that depth creates better depth at the front end as well.

 

Go a strong 2 year with the performance option.

[h2oface]

"Since 2010, his ERA+ have been 96, 146, 94, 163, 95, and then 129 in 2015."

 

This is his off year coming up. Don't sign him.

[jorgenswest]

Career strikeout rate dropped below 30% with last year's rate of 26.8%. Walk rates remain above 10% and fly ball rates remain above 50%. He can't afford any more drop in strike out rate and remain valuable as a pitcher. His xFIP of 4.27 last year shouldn't be ignored as an ERA projector. It would be foolish to give him 3 years. He will soon pitch his last good season and that may have been 2015.

 

I am with Seth as far as the one year deal. I would not go beyond.