Article: Regression Candidates in 2016

[jorgenswest]

Revere always was a Big-League hitter.

So far, Hicks has not been a Big-League hitter.

I have known Hicks since he was a 13-yr-old.

He is a good kid and I really hope the hitting will develop for him.

Revere through age 25 had an OPS of .654

Hicks through age 25 has an OPS of .655

Edited December 19, 2015 by jorgenswest

[sane09]

 

Revere through age 25 had an OPS of .654
Hicks through age 25 has an OPS of .655

Revere's BA age 23-25= .267, .294, .305

Hicks' BA age 23-25=     .192, .215,  .256

Revere's worst BA (.267) >> Hicks' best BA (.256)

Revere's career BA =.295

Hicks' career BA  =  .225

[jimbo92107]

Eddie Rosario is one smart ballplayer, and he loves beating his opponents. If that takes more plate discipline, I expect Eddie will add that to his bag of tricks. If Bruno and Molitor put it in terms of upping the pressure on the pitcher, Eddie will be right there with 'em. Get the count in your favor, Eddie!

Edited December 20, 2015 by jimbo92107

[markos]

Rosario is a tough player to project. His bat-to-ball skills are pretty amazing, and his ability to hit bad pitches is also pretty crazy. So does that mean that all the "normal" rules about hitting don't apply to him in the same way? I don't know. But there are a lot of warning signs from his performance last season:

 

1) He had a reverse platoon split, hitting lefties (117 wRC+) much better than righties (91 wRC+). That is rarely sustainable.

2) He crushed it at Target Field (140 wRC+) and was a pumpkin everywhere else (58 wRC+).

3) He had a high BABIP despite being a flyball hitter. Of the 46 players with a BABIP above .330 last year, he had the 5th lowest GB/FB ratio, and he had the 2nd highest popup rate.

 

[Jham]

May.  His numbers were bolstered by a ridiculously low first-half BB/9 and HR/9 last year.  I doubt he can keep it up, or throw 97 for a full season, even out of the pen.  He's clearly better out of the pen, and can certainly be good, but I'm not sold that he really has the stuff to be consistently dominant like he was at the end of last season.  

[Boom Boom]

Revere's BA age 23-25= .267, .294, .305

Hicks' BA age 23-25= .192, .215, .256

Revere's worst BA (.267) >> Hicks' best BA (.256)

Revere's career BA =.295

Hicks' career BA = .225

Keep in mind that Revere has no power and does not walk.

[sane09]

 

Keep in mind that Revere has no power and does not walk.

Exactly.

Hicks has power, gets on base, but doesn't hit well, YET.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

IMO Rosario won't regress, he didn't even put up that good of numbers last year anyways (sub 100 OPS+) I would be worried if he stays the same personally and am looking for some solid progression from him.

As far as regression candidates:
Escobar
Dozier (that second half worries me)
Duffey
Milone
Gibson
Perkins (injury)
Murphy
Sano (could be a growing year, where he doesn't have a .900 ops, but Something closer to .880 or so)

 

This isn't the first time I've seen Escobar cited as a candidate for regression, and, frankly, it confuses me. He's improved his OPS every season he's been with the Twins, and he's still young. Isn't he more likely to get better than get worse?

[by jiminy]

 

I'm a huge Sano fan like most Twins fans, but if he maintains a .396 BABIP it'd be the highest career BABIP in the history of the game.

 

I expect regression from Mauer could very well happen.

 

Duffy is a prime candidate as stated.

If Mauer regresses to his career mean numbers, that would be the best news of the year!

[tobi0040]

 

I think between Rosario and Hicks, Hicks has the better career. 

 

I think Rosario's bat can play in a corner but Hicks likely won't.

[Willihammer]

One guy I would put money on to regress is Kevin Jepsen. In the half-season he iptched for us he posted career bests in FIP, LOB%, WHIP, ERA, K/BB, etc.

[jimmer]

 

If Mauer regresses to his career mean numbers, that would be the best news of the year!

Exactly my point.